The Big Five Factor Model

The Big Five Factor Model
Five –Factor model According to the five–factor model (or Big Five), personality can be classified
into five distinct dimensions. These dimensions include extraversion, agreeableness,
conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to experience (Forsyth, 2014). When multiple
individuals come together to work in a group, the personalities of each person may either help or
hinder the group in reaching its' goals. For instance, the Big Five factor of agreeableness is
indicative of an individual being accepting, trusting, and nurturing, which may help a leader interact
with followers (Northouse, 2016). Another factor, extraversion, may impact the level of energy and
excitement a leader conveys. Having a leader who is happy, active, and sociable ... Show more
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In general, per the minimax principle, individuals prefer to join groups that have high value with
minimal costs. As a member of Rotary, a service based international organization, I have observed
members who try to determine if being a member is desirable, based on the time and money
commitment required and the received rewards. Traditionally, Rotary had strict attendance
requirements for members, which were to attend all the meetings and make up any that you miss.
The membership dues are relatively high, especially for certain demographics. Partly due to this, in
the United States, Rotary membership has started to decline, and thus new options are being
explored for potential members by Rotary leaders. One option being explored is a service
membership, where the member is not required to come to as many weekly meetings, but is
expected to participate in service projects, such as helping at fundraisers. In my view, exploring this
option is wise for Rotary, since it will impact how individuals evaluate joining Rotary. The
comparison level is demonstrated by this alternative, since there is less time commitment for
potential members; while still allowing participation in the positive benefits of helping the
community through service projects. Collective efficacy In my experience, collective efficacy can
be very powerful. When the majority of a group believes they can reach a
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Some Information about Rational Expectations Theory
The theory of rational expectations is particularly important for workers ideological of national
security , because it is derived from the consequences of the assumption that reaches people in
social policy in a rational way , and some of the consequences of its flavor from the ideological
principles such as the principle of expediency or Maximin Rawlsian ( see (1 ) for a survey ) .
Research has shown that the relevant bargaining in fashion that can be seen as rational from the
point of the individual 's point of view , such as the Nash bargaining or Raiffa – Kalai Smorodinsky
bargaining , and results in agreements that are fair in some sense. Because of the rigor of this
research , much of which depends on the mathematical proof , it is worth careful study of the effects
of the ethical .
Arguments contract
One way to link an individual to work with the principle of rational thought is an argument of the
social contract . The basic idea , which goes back to Thomas Hobbes (2) , is that rational individuals
will participate in the social agreement to behave morally . They will do so because the alternative is
chaos , that life " solitary , poverty and filth , irrational , and short . " Most importantly , it will
continue to comply with the agreement , because (according to Hobbes ) it will install voluntarily
and authoritarian government , which gives them an incentive strong to do so.
In the context of modern economic standpoint Hobbs may see businesses and

Week2
[pic] Department of Management Class of BUS 564 Advanced Decision Making Final Exam 1– A
local real estate investor in Orlando is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a
restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of
gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any
conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each
investment: | |Gasoline Availability | |Investment |Shortage |Stable Supply |Surplus | |Motel |$ 6,000
|$10,000 |$20,000 | |Restaurant |2,000 |15,000 |6,000 | |Theater ... Show more content on
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c. Construct the opportunity loss table and determine the best decision. d. Compute the expected
value of perfect information. 4– Carol Latta is visiting hotels in Los Angeles to decide where to hold
a convention for a national organization of college business school teachers she represents. There
are three hotels from which to choosethe Cheraton, the Milton, and the Harriott. The criteria she is
to use to make her selection are ambiance, location (based on safety and walking distance to
attractions and restaurants), and cost to the organization. Following are the pairwise comparisons
she has developed that indicate her preference for each hotel for each criterion and her pairwise
comparisons for the criteria: |Ambiance | |Hotel |Cheraton |Milton |Harriott | |Cheraton |1 |1/2 |1/5 |
|Milton |2 |1 |1/3 | |Harriott |5 |3 |1 | |Location | |Hotel |Cheraton |Milton |Harriott | |Cheraton |1 |5 |3 |
|Milton |1/5 |1 |1/4 | |Harriott |1/3

Decision Analysis
Introduction to Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 12 Decision Analysis 1) A state of nature
is an actual event that may occur in the future. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading:
Components of Decision Making Key words: state of nature 2) A payoff table is a means of
organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various
states of nature. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision
Making Key words: payoff table 3) The maximax criterion results in the maximum of the maximum
payoffs. Answer: TRUE Diff: 2 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without
Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 4) The maximin ... Show more content on
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Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key
words: Hurwicz criterion 11) The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by the coefficient of
optimism. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without
Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 12) The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the worst payoff by
the coefficient of optimism. Answer: FALSE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making
without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 13) A dominant decision is one that has better
payoff than another decision under each state of nature. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 533 Main
Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: dominant decision 14) The appropriate
criterion is dependent on the risk personality and philosophy of the decision maker. Answer: TRUE
Diff: 3 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision
making criteria 15) The maximax criterion is optimistic. Answer: TRUE Diff: 3 Page Ref: 529 Main
Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making criteria 16) The
maximin criterion maximizes the minimum regret. Answer: FALSE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 531 Main
Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 17) The minimax
criterion minimizes the maximum payoff.

Disadvantages Of Maximin Rule
When managers are seeking to earn maximum profit, they apply the maximax rule regardless of the
potential risk it involves. Business dictionary defines maximax rule as, "the optimistic (aggressive)
decision making rule under conditions of uncertainty." Nonetheless, the business owner or leader
that oversees making important decision are responsible for choosing the plan of action feasible in
the given situation. The downside of this rule is the high risk it contains. The individuals making the
decisions must take other steps to prevent the possible risks by weighing their options. Through
investigating procedures business owners and leaders can also eliminate some of the risks. Managers
choosing the different alternative by applying the maximax rule, are aware that ... Show more
The manager would review the lowest unfavorable outcome at all the supply level, then after
choosing the highest one. It is the responsibility of the business manager or the person who makes
the decisions to select the outcome that make certain to minimize his cost. In the maximin rule, the
manager will not have the opportunity of producing the biggest profit. Managers using this rule are
known to be someone that worries and wants to achieve the best possible results but still feels the
worse will be the outcome. The downside to the maximin rule is that through all the choice they
have, they manage to choose that which involves the maximum least settlement. The drawbacks of
this rule are that it overlooks the acceptable result. Consequently, if the managers investigate
acceptable outcome of a pricing decision and making a different choice that includes a good result,
the fallout can be minimized. Managers or business owners create fixed prices for the business
products by choosing the consumers or buyers who are prone to pay the cheapest

The Theory Of Social Penetration Theory
Selected Theory: Social Penetration Theory was created by Irwin Altman, the professor emeritus of
psychology at the University of Utah, and Dalmas Taylor, who was provost and professor of
psychology at Lincoln University before he passed away. This theory is used to describe the way
people grow closer in a "gradual and orderly fashion from superficial to intimate levels of exchange
as a function of both immediate and forecasted outcomes" (Altman & Taylor, 1973, pg. 96), which
the authors of the theory used to connect people to onions. They did this not to assert that people
cause tears or emit offensive odors, but rather to establish a visible metaphor for the layers of
intimacy that are peeled back as the people involved in the relationship get to know each other. The
main route to this layer–peeling is, according to the theory, self–disclosure which involves the
voluntary sharing of personal information such as personal history and values. Before the two
people involved in the act of social penetration disclose anything beyond the first superficial layer of
themselves they begin to evaluate their relationship according to the minimax principle of human
behavior, which states that humans seek to maximize their benefits while minimizing their costs.
This principle applies to Social Penetration as it determines, to some extent, what the depth of
penetration will be for the two parties. If they see their relationship as more benefit than cost
according to their comparison

Using Alpha Beta Pruning And Minimax
# include <iostream>
# include <list>
# include <map> using namespace std;
//––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
//Constants assigned to max, min draw const int MAX = 1; const int MIN = –1; const int DRAWE =
0; const int MAXIMUM_SQRS = 9;
//–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
// Alpha Beta Pruning turned on bool alpha_beta_on = false;
//compare the results of using alpha beta pruning and minimax static int counter = 0;
//assign each column, row and diagnal values inline bool LC(short x)
{
return (x & 0x49) == 0x49;
}
inline bool MCL(short x)
{
return (x & 0x92) == 0x92;
}
inline bool RC(short x)
{
return (x & 0x124) == 0x124;
}
inline bool TR(short x)
{
return (x & 7) == 7;
}
inline bool MR(short x)
{
return (x & 0x38) == 0x38;
}
inline bool BR(short x)
{
return (x & 0x1C0) == 0x1C0;
}
inline bool D1(short x)

{
return (x & 0x111) == 0x111;
}
inline bool D2(short x)
{
return (x & 0x54) == 0x54;
}
typedef int utility;
//––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
//initiate action to achieve a new game state class action { public: action() { a_ = 0; side_ = 0; }
action(short a, short side) { a_ = a; side_ = side; } enum { MIN = 1, MAX = 2 }; short a_; short
side_;
};
//––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
//game state that assigned to each x

2.3 Dominant Strategy. Dominant Strategy Produces “A Higher
2.3 Dominant strategy
Dominant strategy produces "a higher payoff than any other strategy the player can use for every
possible combination of its rivals' strategies" (Perloff). In other words, in game theory, strategic
dominance results in better strategies than any other competitors. This will be explained more
detailed later in this report.
2.4 Nash equilibrium "The Nash Equilibrium is a concept of game theory where the optimal
outcome of a game is one where no player has an incentive to deviate from his chosen strategy after
considering an opponent 's choice" (Investopedia). The Nash equilibrium is said to exist if a player
has no incentive to independently change his course of action in the game. This is a point where
both players ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
For example, during the summer, more frequent travel increases the demand of gasoline. On the
other hand, the demand decreases in the winter. The higher the demand, the larger the price tags.
Demand differs by season.
Calculating the cost of gasoline
"When a station receives a load of gasoline, an invoice is generated that list the price of gasoline by
grade. The price will be determined by the prevailing wholesale cost at the time of delivery, the
freight, and federal, state and local taxes applicable to the station 's location" (DeCostanza, P1).
Labor expense is also factored into the estimation of the cost of gasoline at gasoline stations as a
baseline.
Determining competitive conditions
Gasoline prices vary at each gasoline station because gasoline marketing is very competitive. Retail
prices of competing stations are determined by a pressure of prices in immediate trading areas.
Gasoline sales are tools to increase sales traffic for other more profitable products like convenience
store items: "Giveaway the gasoline to sell the coffee is a saying often heard in the convenience
store business" (DeCostanza, P1). Similarly, because auto repair shops need to build their customer
base for repair, auto repair shops might sell gasoline cheaper than other gasoline stations nearby.
3.2 Gasoline prices
Game theory helps us understand the behavior of gasoline station owners in setting gasoline prices.
Table 3 is a simple application of game theory to gasoline pricing.

Domestic Violence: Skills, Tools And Theories
Skills, Tools and Theories
Conflict within marriage and/or close relationships, sometimes include
Domestic Violence. Using evidence in an educational platform for other
women who are in the same situations is one solution. We need to develop an
educational tool within schools to teach children what it acceptable and how to
get help if they find themselves in danger. I believe this approach can change
the behaviors for many as the knowledge of domestic violence and how to
combat it becomes part of a healed culture. Conflicts can be categorized according to the type of
issue involved in the conflict. Conflict issues can be divided into tangible and intangible. Tangible
conflicts can involve property, promotion, reimbursement and employment. ... Show more content
on Helpwriting.net ...
"Stop"
means not reacting blindly and responding habitually to the other person. When
we take time out, we can then consider our options and try to exercise them
rationally. After we have stopped, we need to think or analyze the situation to
try to know what is really happening within it and the range of possibilities it
presents. Rather than taking the conflict personally, we need to think about the
consequences of doing nothing or about changing the other person, the
situation, or ourselves. We need to consider the conflicting parties'
instrumental, identity, relational, and process goals. After stopping and

thinking, it is important to listen to the other person. Listening to the other
does not mean we have to agree with the other. It simply means that we
consider the other's opinion important, and that we try to hear and understand
it before we make a point or saying what's on our mind. Although our tendency
is to become defensive when we hear a critical remark, listening without
immediately defending oneself can make the difference between a productive
and a destructive conflict.
Conclusion and

The Progression Of Society: John Von Neumann
Every generation has had its set of geniuses who have added to the progression of society, whether
it's by inventing things, coming up with equations, or philosophical teachings, etc. However, I can't
think of one person in history who was as incredible as John von Neumann. John von Neumann was
born to Jewish parents in Budapest, Hungary on December 28, 1903. He was the oldest of three
sons. Von Neumann's dad was a banker and his mother was raised in a family that profited from
farming materials. Von Neumann was known to have an extraordinary memory when he was very
young. At six years old, he had the ability to divide multiple eight–digit numbers mentally. He was
able to solve calculus at eight years old; he could recite names, ... Show more content on
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However, the University had only began on a new project EDVAC, which was a stored program
computer. He assisted in the EDVAC project. In 1945, he created the report "First Draft of a Report"
on the EDVAC. This consisted of what was to become the von Neumann stored program computer
concept. The EDVAC that was designed by the University of Penn differed from his design. He
discussed with the University people about the university people about the design of EDVAC and
the wat memory and arithmetic materials are to be arranged. As soon as he had multiple
conversations, he started work on EDVAC's logical design by creating a high tech language that
deals with programming. The report shows a broad picture of the computer arranged with a central
arithmetic unit, an outside recording medium, an input organ and a central control unit. The report
describes the way these parts communicate as a whole. The second time von Neumann added to the
field of computer architecture was by writing another report "Preliminary Discussion of the Logical
Design of an Electronic Computing Instrument". This document was more well–known and it had a
bigger impact than EDVAC's report. This paper provided specific details about the function of a
random access memory computer which protects, sends and analyzes data simultaneously. It
compares the advantages and disadvantages of initiation racing circuit, gas thermionic tube, and
electromechanical electrical relay, before selecting the cathode shaft of light tube as the best
available means of putting away information. The architecture of the adder and the multiplier are
also considered. The report adopted a systematic, scientific approach with detailed mathematical
analysis. It analyzed the storage requirements for solving different variety of mathematical
problems, such as sum and partial first derivative

Theorems Of A Penalty Kick
Now, how do these two theorems help in analysing a penalty shootout?
Let us first see what a penalty kick is? When do players receive a penalty kick?
Penalty kick is a direct free kick that is taken from the penalty spot which is 12 yards from the goal.
Only the goalkeeper is allowed to stand between the player taking the penalty kick and the goal. All
other players need to stand behind the penalty taker. Penalty kicks are performed during normal
play. They are awarded when a foul that is punishable by a direct free kick is committed within the
offending player's own penalty area. Similar kicks are made in a penalty shootout in major
international tournaments such as the World Cup to determine which team is victorious after a
drawn match.
So the striker lines up with the ball in front of him. He runs forwards and kicks the ball towards the
net and the goalkeeper tries to stop it. ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Although the goalkeeper dives after the striker has kicked the ball, he cannot actually wait to the ball
comes off the foot to decide which way to dive–because the ball moves so fast, it will already be
behind him by the time he finishes his dive. So the goalkeeper must pick his strategy before
observing any relevant information from the striker.
This type of game is actually very common. Both players pick a side. One player wants to match
sides (the goalie), while the other wants to mismatch (the striker). That is, from the striker's
perspective, the goalkeeper wants to dive left when the striker kicks left and dive right when the
striker kicks right; the striker wants to kick left when the goalie dives right and kick right when the
goalie dives left. The same case happens in basketball where a shooter wants a defender to break the
wrong way to give him an open lane to the basket, while the defender wants to stay lined up with the
ball

Case
Chapter 6 Problem Summary |Prob. # |Concepts Covered |Level of |Notes | | | |Difficulty | | |6.1
|Decision Making Under Uncertainty –– maximax, maximin, |1 | | | |minimax regret and principle of
insufficient reason criteria | | | |6.2 |Expected Value Criterion, EVPI |1 | ... Show more content on
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of this problem is looking for the | | | | |EVPI. | |6.24 |Bayesian Probability Revision, EVSI,
Efficiency |3 | | |6.25 |Minimax Regret, Maximin, and Expected Value Criteria |3 | | |6.26 |EVPI,
EVSI, and Efficiency |4 | | |6.27 |Constructing Payoff and Regret Tables, Maximax, Maximin, and |2
| | | |Minimax Regret Criteria | | | |6.28 |Expected Value Criterion, EVPI, EVSI, Efficiency |3 | | |6.29
|Constructing Payoff Tables, Expected Value Criterion |5

Game Theory Is The Study Of Decision Making Under Competition
Game Theory is the study of decision making under competition. More specially, Game Theory is
the study of optimal decision making under competition when one individual 's decisions affect the
outcome of a situation for all other individuals involved.
Game Theory can be broadly classified into four main sub–categories of study:
– Classical Game Theory
– Combinatorial Game Theory
– Dynamic Game Theory
– Other Topics in Game Theory
As a mathematical tool for the decision–maker the strength of game theory is the methodology it
provides for structuring and analyzing problems of strategic choice. The process of formally
modeling a situation as a game requires the decision–maker to enumerate explicitly the players and
their preferred moves, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The techniques of solving games involving more than one strategies particularly in case of large
pay–off matrix are very complicated.
All the situations cannot be analyzed with the help of game theory.
Classical Game Theory
Game theorists consider the axiomatization of the utility function in the case of uncertainty a major
contribution in von Neumann and Morgenstern. It paved the ground for the modeling of rational
decision–making when a decision maker is faced by lotteries. Thereafter a utility function, ui(.),
which satisfies the expected utility hypothesis, i.e.
(1) ui([A,p;B,1–p]) = pui(A) + (1–p)ui(B) is called a von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function.
Here A and B are events p is the probability that event A occurs while 1–p is the probability of B
occurring. Thus [A,p;B,1–p] is a lottery. It is a notational convention to write [A,p;B,1–p] = A if p =
1 and [A,p;B,1–p] = B if p =0.
The probability p can be related to a model of relative frequencies and are, in this sense, objective
and thus represent risk; or they can be subjective and thus represent uncertainty.
The utility values which the function ui(.) assigns to events are called payoffs. Because of eq.1 we
do not have to distinguish between payoff and expected payoffs: if player X is indifferent between
the lottery [A,p;B,1–p] and the sure event C then ui([A,p;B,1–p]) = ui(C), i.e., the payoffs are
identical. If ui(.)

Hw5A
HW 5a Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the
question. __B__ 1. Although modeling provides valuable insight to decision makers, decision
making remains a difficult task. Which of the following is not a primary cause for this difficulty
discussed in the Decision Analysis chapter? a. | Uncertainty regarding the future. | b. | Models
provide decisions for the decision maker. | c. | Conflicting values. | d. | Conflicting objectives. |
__A__ 2. Which of the following is a goal of decision analysis? a. | Help individuals make good
decisions. | b. | Ensure decisions lead to good outcomes. | c. | Avoiding decisions leading to bad
outcomes. | d. | Reduce the role of luck in ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The payoff from each investment is a function of the economic climate over the next 2 years. The
economy can expand or decline. The following payoff matrix has been developed for the decision
problem. The investor has estimated the probability of a declining economy at 70% and an
expanding economy at 30%. | A | B | C | D | 1 | | Payoff Matrix | | 2 | | | | | 3 | | Economy | | 4 |
Investment | Decline | Expand | EMV | 5 | A | –10 | 90 | | 6 | B | 20 | 50 | | 7 | C | 40 | 45 | | 8 | Bank | 15
| 20 | | 9 | | | | | 10 | Probability | 0.7 | 0.3 | | | Payoffs | __C__ 13. Refer to Scenario 15–3. What
decision should be made according to the expected monetary value decision rule? a. | A | b. | B | c. |
C | d. | Bank | __C__ 14. A square node in a decision tree is called a __________ node. a. | chance |
b. | random | c. | decision | d. | event | Scenario 15–5 An investor is considering 4 investments, A, B,
C, D. The payoff from each investment is a function of the economic climate over the next 2 years.
The economy can expand or decline. The following decision tree has been developed for the
problem. The investor has estimated the probability of a declining economy at 40% and an
expanding economy at 60%. __D__ 15. Refer to Scenario 15–5. What is the correct decision for this
investor based on an expected

Research
Existing research in the field of GGP
Since previous valuable research about the same topic of general game player is comparatively rare,
this section will focus more on a similar field: Center for Analysis and Design of Intelligent Agents
(CADIA) player. By analyzing this similar field, the research could get a better understanding and
some reference functions. Therefore, the research of the general game player could be benefit.
CADIA player had won General Game Playing competition hosted by the AAAI conference for
three times. The program does not require any prior domain knowledge nor heuristic. Different from
most design model of GGP agents, CADIA player employs Monte–Carlo based simulation search
for its move decisions. Monte–Carlo ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
18). All the subtle differences for understanding the text–based messages that comes from the HTTP
Server will be hides away by the Game–Agent Interface (Finnsson 2012, pp. 17–18). Runtime
information that associates to the player and statistical data will also be recorded by Game–Agent
Interface between moves through special functions (Finnsson 2012, p. 18).
Game–Play Interface
The main AI part of the CADIA agent is managed by the Game–Play Interface (Finnsson 2007, p.
17; Finnsson 2012, p. 18). Both of the current state and the history that led to the state of the game
will be tracked by this layer (Finnsson 2007, p. 17; Finnsson 2012, p. 18). To achieve that, the
Game–Play Interface provide class structure in which states and actions will be represent (Finnsson
2012, p. 18). The structure also need to be capable to be translated back into description languages,
like GDL or KIF (Finnsson 2012, p. 18).
The Game–Logic Interface
Game–logic Interface adopts classes to implement the Game Controller (Finnsson 2007, p. 19;
Finnsson 2012, p. 27). The Game–Logic Interface will file the game's state, offers information about
what moves are available, when there is a move how should the states changes, determine terminal
state, and decide the goal rewards if a state is judged as a terminal state (Finnsson 2012, p. 27).
CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY
This project will use GGP base platform to provide a set of Java libraries and applications to help
building games, players. It works

What Makes A Name Hilton
Precisely what is it that makes a name so famous that people from all over the world flock to the
most fad destinations spots just to stay in a hotel? When you hear of the name Hilton immediately
the images of relaxation, luxury and quality spring into your mind. Yet, what is it that put the name
Hilton in such high demand when booking a place to stay? Conrad Hilton the famous impresario
built his timeless legacy from the ground up. From humble beginnings as a general store owners son
to the founder of over 500 hotels and resorts spread over 78 different countries, Conrad Hilton
redefined the meaning of lodging and hospitality and constructed the expectations of what is known
today as a stay at the Hilton. Conrad Hilton was born on December 25, 1887 in the desolate city of
San Antonio New Mexico. Hilton was the eldest son and worked for his father in a general store. His
father wanted him to follow in his proud footsteps and run the general store, young Hilton had other
plans. He soon opened his own bank. That short lived business venture ended just in time for what
was to happen to Hilton next. He soon became involved in politics and yet again restless Hilton did
not stay very long in that profession. He then went into war. During World War II Hilton served his
time working with the supplies for the infantry. Due to his knowledge of the general store Hilton's
position was second nature to him. After the war Hilton went onto yet another business venture.

Game Theory and Best Decision Essay
Homework Assignment 1 Decision Analysis Questions 1–6 refer to the following A family business
is considering making an investment in its manufacturing operation. Three decisions are under
consideration: (1) a large investment; (2) a medium investment; and (3) a small investment. The
business believes that there are three possible future outcomes for its product: (1) increasing
demand; (2) stable demand; and (3) decreasing demand. The following payoff table describes the
decision situation. |States of Nature | |Decision |Increasing Demand |Stable Demand |Decreasing
Demand ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
5. If the business believes that the probability for increasing, stable and decreasing product demand
are 0.4, 0.5, and 0.1, identify the best decision using the rule of maximum expected monetary value.
|States of Nature |

Solar Modulation Of Galactic Cosmic Rays
Solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) has been a subject of intense research, especially to
assess the continuously changing behaviour of the sun and its influence on cosmic rays. This
modulation of GCR intensity associated with ~11–year solar activity cycle has been studied from
past several decades (e.g., Forbush, 1954; Burlaga et al., 1985; Venkatesan and Badruddin, 1990;
Storini et al., 1995; Sabbah and Rybansky, 2006; Kudela, 2009; Ahluwalia et al., 2010; Heber, 2013;
Chowdhury, Kudela, and Dwivedi, 2013; and references therein). The long–term GCR modulation
shows ~22–year cycle related to the solar magnetic cycle as the solar polarity reverses near solar
maximum of very activity cycle; the polarity dependant effects on cosmic rays have also been an
area of active research (e.g., Jokipii, Levy, and Hubbard, 1977; Potgieter and Moraal, 1985; Smith
and Thomas, 1986; Cliver and Ling, 2001; Kota 2013; Potgieter, 2014; Laurenza et al., 2014;
Potgieter et al., 2014; Thomas, Owens, and Lockwood, 2014; Thomas et al., 2014; and references
therein).
The ~11/~22 –year GCR intensity modulation in anti–phase with solar activity shows some time lag.
This time lag has been observed to vary from solar cycle–to–cycle (odd/even cycle) and polarity
epoch–to–epoch (positive/negative epoch) (e.g., Mavromichalaki, Belehaki, and Rafois, 1998; Kane,
2003; Badruddin, Singh, and Singh, 2007; Singh, Singh, and Badruddin, 2008; Inceoglu et al., 2014;
Kane 2014). However, a number of

Risk Reduction Techniques in Management Decision Making
Risk Reduction Techniques in Management Decision Making
11/3/2009
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
1. Sensitivity Analysis
This is a technique that shows how different variables affect the value of a particular variable. For
example, it shows the affect on profit following a change in sales price and/or volume.
Pros:
Sensitivity analysis shows the sensitivity of economic payoffs to uncertain values such as discount
rates. Management can see the profitability of a project if input values change [ (Marshall, 1995) ].
It is easy to use and understand. Therefore it is most useful when more advanced and time
consuming techniques are not possible. Management can see which factors are the most influential
in ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Therefore the decisions for management should be easier to make. Knowing the exact cost structure
would allow the firm to use CVP analysis reliably.
Cons:
Perfect information means all uncertainty is removed. This is rarely achievable and therefore this
concept is more theoretical than practical. Information is also costly to attain.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
6. Simulation
Simulation is a technique for studying a system that involves setting up a model of the real system
and then performing experiments on the model rather than on the system. It is used in problems like
inventory control and production planning.
Pros:
The simulation model can be used to test different alternatives that would be too expensive or
impractical to perform on the real system. Simulation is useful where other analytical techniques are
not applicable. Simulation is cheaper and less risky than altering the real system [ (Lucey, 2002) ].

Cons:
The models are complex and therefore they can take up significant amounts of managerial and
technical time. Computer expertise is also required and this may not be available [ (Lucey, 2002) ].
Simulations do not always result in the optimal outcome. The manager makes the decision based on
the tested alternatives. The optimal decision may not have been tested. Simulations are not relevant
to all management decisions.

Decision Model Theory
Decision Theory Models
The Six Steps in Decision Theory * Clearly define the problem at hand. * List the possible
alternatives. * Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature. * List the payoff or profit of each
combination of alternatives and outcomes. * Select one of the mathematical decision theory models.
* Apply the model and make your decision.
Case
Here we use the Thompson Lumber Company case as an example to illustrate these decision theory
steps. John Thompson is the founder and president of Thompson Lumber Company, a profitable
firm located in Portland, Oregon.
Step 1
The problem that John Thompson identifies is whether to expand his product line by manufacturing
and marketing a new product, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Let the coefficient of realism is 'a' selected. The coefficient is between 0 and 1. When 'a' is close to
1, the decision maker is optimistic about the future. When 'a' is close '0' the decision maker is
pessimistic. It helps the decision maker to build feelings about relative optimism and pessimism. *
Weighted average =a (maximum in row) + (1–a)(minimum in row). * Equally likely (Laplace)–one
criterion that uses all the payoffs for each alternative is the equally likely also called Laplace
decision criterion. This is to find alternative with highest payoff. * Minimax Regret the final
decision criterion that we discuss is based on opportunity loss or regret.
Expected Value of Perfect Information * Formula
EVPI = A – B
A = expected value with perfect information
B = expected value without perfect information
Calculation of (A) value: A = the best of each outcome x their prob.
The best of outcomes:
Best outcome = (100,000) (30,000)
A = 0.6 x 100,000 + 0.4 x 30,000 = 72,000
Calculation of (B) value: B = we select the max value of each given below
Outcome of each event:

0.6(50000) + 0.4 (30,000) = 42,000
0.6(100,000 –0.4(40,000) = 44,000
0.6(30,000) + 0.4(10,000) = 20,000
The max value for all computed value = 44,000
EVPI = A – B = 72,000 – 44,000 = 28,000
Expected Opportunity

The Social Penetration Theory Of Communication
The Social Penetration Theory and Its Application to Plot Lines for Successful Films
Everyone goes through situations in which they form new relationships with people they previously
did not know. For example, when a student moves onto a college campus for his or her freshman
year, the student will have to go through the process of making new friends and getting to know his
or her roommate. The social penetration theory of communication explains how new relationships
form and the levels a relationship must go through before it can be described as being friends. The
social penetration theory can be described as a theory of self–disclosure. Altman and Taylor created
the social penetration theory to explain how ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The layers of self–disclosure can be identified as layers of an onion. Self–disclosure can be referred
to as layers of an onion because in the relationship you peel back a layer at a time. The outer layer of
the onion is only superficial communication that is not as intimate and can be seen by any of the
public. This communication can include height, weight, where someone works or goes to school,
etc. The inner layer of the onion includes more personal communication that is not always seen by
the public. This inner layer can include communication that involves a persons goals, values, and
beliefs. In a study done in 2012, bloggers tended to stick to the outer layers of the onion when
discussing topics in their blogs (Tang). The social penetration theory and social media's impact on
the theory will be expanded upon more later on in the paper. Two big pieces of this social
penetration theory puzzle are depth and breadth of self–disclosure. The depth of self–disclosure is
how deep someone can penetrate the layers of the onion or how deep your self–disclosure goes. The
more intimate someone is in the relationship the more depth of self–disclosure that relationship will
have. Where–as the breadth of self–disclosure is the range of topics in which disclosure takes place
within a relationship. Younger people tend to have more breadth where–as the older generation tends
to take part

The Game Theory of Baseball
Decision–making in Baseball Baseball is a great game to analyze from game theory perspective
because of the scale of strategic decisions that are continuously made on the fields and each play. In
every play, there are various players (baseball players, coaches, team managers and owners) with
different goals and payoffs, and thousands of pitch–by–pitch decisions are made in course of an at–
bat, inning, game, and season. Major League Baseball, one of the four major professional sports
leagues of North America, is the most suitable platform for analysis because statistical information
is tracked for almost every single complexion of the game. In the following paper, we choose to
inspect one at–bat decision of a single game in detail as a ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net
...
In general, for defense side, minimizing opponent's batting average would be the priority. In this
case, the optimal choice for Leyland is to choose Porcello against Ortiz with lowest BA .286.
However, the situation here is not that simple. As Ortiz representing tie–run, minimizing his
slugging rate would be more essential than his batting average because a long–hit (slugging) would
cause greater damage; Tigers was 5–1 lead which was situation that single is more acceptable than
extra–base hit because a single might only cause they lost 2 runs and a extra–base hit might cause 3
or 4 runs. Thus, considering minimum damage as priority, using Benoit would be the optimal choice
for Leyland, same as we figured out in last paragraph. In the report of Jim Caple ii, "Benoit is our
guy against lefties and we felt he gave us the best chance to get the out," Leyland said.
Benoit v.s. Ortiz Following the conclusion from our game tree, Leyland chose to use Benoit in to
face Ortiz. In order to analyze the theoretic decisions in this at bat, we will look at the possible
outcomes and decisions on pitch–by–pitch basis. In order to inspect pitch selection issues, we will
set the payoff based on Runs Above Average (RAA). RAA measures a hitter's ability to create runs
based on the pitch that

Brs Mdm3 Tif Ch08 Essay
Managerial Decision Modeling w/ Spreadsheets, 3e (Balakrishnan/Render/Stair) Chapter 8 Decision
Analysis 8.1 Chapter Questions 1) Determining the best payoff for each alternative and choosing the
alternative with the "best of the best" is the approach called: A) maximax B) maximin C) Laplace D)
minimax regret E) expected monetary value Answer: A Page Ref: 323 Topic: Decision Making
Under Uncertainty Difficulty: Moderate 2) Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and
choosing the alternative with the "best of the worst" is the approach called: A) maximax B) maximin
C) Laplace D) minimax regret E) expected monetary value Answer: B Page Ref: 323 Topic:
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Difficulty: Moderate 3) The ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
E) none of the above Answer: B Page Ref: 329 Topic: Decision Making Under Risk Difficulty:
Moderate 14) Which of the following statements concerning decision trees is FALSE? A) Decision
nodes are represented by a square. B) Outcome nodes are represented by a circle. C) EMV is
calculated at each outcome. D) The alternative is chosen with the highest EMV. E) Decision trees
are solved by starting at the first decision node and moving forward. Answer: E Page Ref: 332
Topic: Decision Trees Difficulty: Easy 15) Which of the following statements the use of decision
trees in multi–stage decision making problems is FALSE? A) Multi–stage decision making problems
involve a sequence of decisions. B) EVSI is an upper bound for the EVPI. C) Multi–stage decision
making problems using decision trees are solved moving backward. D) EVSI measure the value of
sample information. E) The efficiency of sample information is a ratio of EVSI to EVPI. Answer: B
Page Ref: 338 Topic: Decision Trees for Multistage Decision–Making Problems Difficulty: Easy 16)
The minimum guaranteed amount you are willing to accept to avoid the risk associated with a
gamble is referred to as the ________. A) risk premium B) certainty equivalent C) EVPI D) EMV E)
EVSI Answer: B Page Ref: 346 Topic: Utility Theory Difficulty: Easy 17) The EMV that a person is
willing to give up in order to avoid the risk associated with a gamble is referred to as the ________.

Company Overview: Thai Airways International
Comments:
The literature review still needs more work to have a better structure and transition between
paragraphs you may want to put more literature.........!!!!!
Need to have a better explanation of using this model and how to test it. The interpretation of results
needs to be improved.
You really need to paraphrase the entire yellow highlight in order to ignore the plagiarism issue.
Can you work a little bit on Abstract and Conclusion? (Sorry, I don't have time to this section)
Check for the grammatical errors.
Thanks Abstract
Thai is among the fastest–growing airlines throughout the Pacific Rim; the airline at the moment has
a fleet of 80 aero planes and served 85 destinations in 45 different nations. Thai over the years has
been able to fly to more countries in Asia than any other air company. Positive growth led to a want
for even greater spreading out, and this was regularly done by means of joint marketing with other
airline companies. Nevertheless, concern has been brought up regarding the risks of getting bigger
way too quickly. In specific, speedy growth could be doing more harm than help to the airline
company. Basically, it could lead to a loss of control and also to some important stock that they have
accumulated. To even please Thailand's increasing Muslim minority, and foreign passengers who are
following the Islamic faith, it was decided that all kinds of meats that are served on THAI would be
Halal; however this was not essentially the case with

Question Paper of Mba
SEMESTER 3
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENTAND ENGINEERING
CORPORATE LAWS $ SECRETARIAL PRACTICE PART 1
MARKS 80
Attempt any Four
Q1 (A) How are the first directors of the company appointed?
(B) What is the notice period required for a board meeting?
Q2 (A) Can a company appoint managing director and manager simultaneously?
(B) Is company allowed to appoint a part–time secretary instead of a Whole–time Secretary?
Q3 (A) Who can fix the remuneration of auditors under the companies act?
(B) Write note on –Prohibition of drawl of foreign exchange.
Q4 (A) Can a company increase its maximum number of directors in its board?
(B) A who is a member of PQR Ltd. Wants to inspect the register of ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
5. What is an assignment problem? It is true to say that it is a special case of the transportation
problem? Explain. How can you formulate an assignment problem as a standard linear programming
problem? Illustrate. What do you understand by an assignment problem? Give a brief outline for
solving it.
6. What are different types of inventories? Explain. What functions does inventory perform? State
the two basic inventory decisions management must make as they attempt to accomplish the
functions of inventory just described by you.
7. What is queuing theory? What type of questions are sought to be answered in analyzing a queuing

system? Give a general structure of the queuing system and explain. Illustrate some queuing
situations. What is queuing theory? In what types of problem situations can it be applied
successfully? Discuss giving examples.
8. What is a replacement problem? Describe some important replacement situations and policies.
Briefly explain the costs which are relevant to decisions for replacement of depreciable assets.
Illustrate their behaviour and explain how the optimal time for replacement of an asset can be
determined.
...3...
...3...
9. What kinds of decision–making situations may be analysed using PERT and CPM techniques?
State the major similarities between PERT and CPM. Under what circumstances is CPM a better
technique of project management than PERT? A construction company has received

Game Theory: Thinking in Positive and Negative...
Ever since you were a child you have unknowingly used game theory. When your parents gave you
the option to choose a candy bar, your brain started thinking of all the possibilities that depended on
which candy you chose. You would think which one would taste better, make your feel better, and
maybe be healthier for you. In the end, you would narrow your choices down to one piece of candy
and eat it happily. Game theory is the use of theory to think through all of the positive and negative
possibilities that could happen in a problem and try to maximize the positive. Game theory is not
just one theory, throughout the years is has spread into six main games. These games are: zero sum
games, non–zero sum games, simultaneous move games, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net
...
Shakespeare solved his problem in his play similar to the way Cortés solved his, he killed off the
prisoners, which made the opposing soldiers believe that they the need to fight to revenge the
prisoners deaths. Therefore, Shakespeare successfully took away the opportunity that the soldiers
might retreat and not fight them. Hobbes used game theory in another way, he thought of all the
options and decided that people do not have to kill. For example, if person X claimed that person Y
broke a promise or deal, person X could hire a person to hurt person Y, which would not kill anyone
and it would stop Person Y from being dishonest again. A non–zero sum game is a game that has
one player that wins, and the consequences will not harm the losing player. A very famous example
of non–zero sum games is the Prisoner's Dilemma. The Prisoner's Dilemma was created by Robert
Axelrod in 1984. This game includes two prisoners that have been arrested. They are wanted for
crimes, but the police only have enough information to put the two people in jail for one year. When
the police interrogate them, they hope to convince one prisoner to give away enough information to
put the other prisoner in jail for 10 years. If a prisoner squeals, and the other does not, the one who
talked has no jail time, while the one who was quiet has ten years in jail. If both prisoners talk, they
only have three years of jail. If neither talk,

Hardin's Argument For Postcolonizing Mars
In The Tragedy of the Commons, Garrett Hardin proposes that the problem of population exists in a
pool of problems without a technical solution. In particular, he notes that the infinitude of space fails
to be a solution to the problem of over population. He strikes down opposition to this argument
swiftly, citing one of his other publications as a defense. I take issue with this negative claim and
explore ways in which the over–population problem as it pertains to modern humanity could be
solved in the long term via inter–planetary colonization. In particular, I cite SpaceX's work toward
colonizing Mars as the basis for the inductive argument that such colonization will allow humanity
access to an effectively infinite amount of land and resources. ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
It forms the basis for his reasoning that the growth rate (as a function of time) in the Malthusian
growth model must tend to 0 for resource–dependent populations. I propose that humanity
inhabiting other planets not only invalidates this facet of Hardin's argument, but is also a well–
defined goal. Critics can be quick to shoot down arguments for inhabiting other planets, citing the
feasibility of interstellar travel. This is true enough, as it would take conventional spacecraft on the
order of tens of thousands of years to reach the nearest earth–like planet Proxima B. However, as
posited in [1], the Breakthrough Starshot project seems to be confident that with some preparation,
their proposed probes will be able to make the trip to Proxima B in just 20 years. If we assume self–
replicating nano–machines become possible at some point, the indefinite proliferation of humankind
across the universe becomes possible because they would be able to set up manufacturing centers
anywhere with usable raw materials. These plans are quite fanciful, but realistic and concrete plans
have been substantiated by Elon Musk of SpaceX, whose plans for a self sustaining city on Mars are
currently in progress. Assuming that humanity lives long enough to see Musk's dream to fruition
(and that other similar efforts arise and succeed, too), Hardin's indirect claim that interplanetary
colonization is not an answer to over–population will be invalidated. This point can be argued
inductively; every successful colonization of a planet yields a launching point for future nearby
colonization ad

Questions For Critical Thinking 7
Questions For Critical Thinking 7
BUSI 620
Salvatore's Chapter 14:
a. Discussion Questions: 12 and 15.
b. Problems: spreadsheet problems 1 and 2.
Note:
1. Spreadsheet problem 1: Use table 14–4 as reference.
2. Spreadsheet problem 2: Use tables 14–5 and 14–6 as reference.
Discussion Question 12: What is the rationale behind the minimax regret rule? What are some less
formal and precise methods of dealing with uncertainty? When are these useful?
The rationale behind the minimax regret rule is to decrease the risk involved with business decisions
and minimize the maximum regret or opportunity cost related from those decisions (Salvatore,
2011). The regret that is linked with the decision is determined by subtracting ... Show more content
on Helpwriting.net ...
The probability distribution of conditions is as follows:
Conditions: Poor Good Excellent
Probability: 40% 50% 10%
(a) Using Excel, calculate the expected value of each project according to this criterion.
(b) Assume that the individual's utility function for profit is U(X) = X – 0.5X^2. Calculate the
expected utility of each project and identify the preferred project according to his criterion.
(c) Is this individual risk averse, risk neutral, or risk seeking? Why
a) Project A: ($0)(0.4) + ($4)(0.5) + ($8)(0.1)= Project A $2.80 Project B: (–$2)(0.4) + ($3)(0.5) +
($4)(0.1) = (–0.8) + 1.5 + 0.4= Project B $1.10
b) ($0)(0.4) + (–$2)(0.4)= –0.8 (–0.8)– 0.5 (–0.8)^2= (–0.8)–0.5* 0.64 (–0.8)–0.32= –1.12
c) This individual is risk averse due the individual encountering diminishing marginal utility of
money during a fair bet but the expected utility of the bet appears to be negative (Salvatore, 2011).
Froeb et al.'s Chapter 17:
a. Individual problems: 17–1 and 17–4.
Individual Problem 17–1: You're the manager of global opportunities for a U.S. manufacturer, who

is considering expanding sales into Europe. Your market research has identified three potential
market opportunities: England, France, and Germany. If you enter the English market, you have a
0.5 chance of big success (selling 100,000 units at a per–unit profit of $6), and a 0.2 chance of
failure (selling nothing). If you enter the French market, you have a 0.4 chance of big success

Quantitive Methods
Course Quantitative Methods
Test Quiz 2
Started 10/20/13 6:35 PM
Submitted 10/20/13 7:45 PM
Status Completed
Attempt Score 34 out of 40 points
Time Elapsed 1 hour, 9 minutes out of 2 hours.
Instructions
Question 1
2 out of 2 points Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities. Answer
Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: False Question 2
2 out of 2 points Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean
if the data is normally distributed. Answer Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: False Question 3
2 out of 2 points If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Answer ...
Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various
weather conditions. Weather Cold Warm Rainy S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9 If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they
choose?
Answer
Selected Answer:
Any of the above
Correct Answer:
Any of the above Question 15
2 out of 2 points A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the
probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution
with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan
participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after
the decimal, rounding off as appropriate. Answer Selected Answer: .13
Correct Answer:
Evaluation Method Correct Answer Case Sensitivity Exact Match 0.13 Exact Match .13

Question 16
0 out of 2 points A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7
years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly

Game Theory Essay
Game Theory
Picture if you will a group of people making decisions. The decisions that are made do not have to
be significant at all. They have to be just significant to the situation at hand. This concept is
considered to mathematicians as Game Theory. Game Theory is broken down into tree different
types of games. As stated by Thomas S. Ferguson of UCLA "There are three main mathematical
models or forms used in the study of games, the extensive form, the strategic form and the
coalitional form". Some games that are the most popular to being discussed in Game Theory are
chess, checkers, and tic–tac–toe (Ferguson). There are also different terms that are used in this
theory as well. Some of the major terms are The Nash Equilibrium, ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
It gave poof that his minimax system worked. He ended up writing a book in 1944 about the subject
as well. He manly took what Waldegrave did and made it easier for people to understand. Game
Theory went to the masses in 1950 when a man by the name of John McDonald. He published game
theory in a way that brought it to the masses. It was revolutionary he was describing that game
theory could be applied to many different games of the time. The game theory he was publishing
was not accurate to what the pervious mathematicians where putting out. He was saying game
theory is a system of how to win any complicated game. Although, what he was doing is showing
what potential game theory was having on the mass public (Belletto, 2009). Also in 1950 Albert W.
Tucker while trying to describe game theory to psychology majors at Stanford. He came up with
what will be now known as the Prisoners' Dilemma (NASAR, 1995). He came up with this while
working on various other mathematical problems of that time. Some of the other problems where
Linear Programming, encouraged John Nash to go with his ideas. In 1951 John Nash came up with a
significant piece of game theory that has been named in his honor. It is dubbed as the Nash
Equilibrium. It manly states that if both players could see each others moves in the game they would
still go with the plan they

Selection Of Suitable Evaluation Function Based On Win...
Selection of Suitable Evaluation Function Based on Win Parameter in Othello Priyanka srivastava
Smita rani prajapati Umlesh yadav Kankan das pri1991s@gmail.com smitaranipnb@gmail.com
umleshyadav2012@gmail.com shan.das34@gmail.com Department of Department of Department
of Department of computer Science & computer science & computer science & computer science &
Engineering Engineering Engineering Engineering
ABSTRACT–––Computer games have made their presence vocal by making themselves present in
the home .This paper discusses on of the board games: Othello. The game of Othello has proved its
prominence by being an active research area since long time now and has been successful to grab
extensive focus of researchers, knowledge engineers and game developers. its execution time and
complexity is good .it is an appropriate choice to be considered as a benchmark in the games
development .In this paper we have compared different available strategies at length.
Keyword–Compute Othello, evaluation function ,neural network tools, search

The Nature of Traffic Flow on Freeways
INTRODUCTION A modified approach to explaining the nature of traffic flow on freeways is
described in this research. It has its beginnings in the observations of actual traffic data, which are
not easily and convincingly explained by the conventional traffic flow theories. Most conventional
approaches to studying the relationships between traffic flow characteristics use loop detector data.
The loop detectors are typically 6 by 6 ft inductive loops of electric wires. When a vehicle passes or
stops over such a detector, loop inductance decreases and that induces a higher oscillation frequency,
which then invokes a pulse indicating the presence of vehicle. The Inductive Loop Detectors (ILD)'s
typically measure flow (the number of vehicles that pass it in some time period) and occupancy (the
percentage of time for which the ILD is occupied in that time period). But the data provided by such
ILDs are often fraught with errors. ILDs under–count or over–count under different freeway traffic
conditions. Also the accuracy and consistency of detector data depend strongly on their installation
and calibration procedures. A loop detector with percentage accuracy within 5% is considered a
'good' one.
This research aims to present a simple queuing analysis of freeway traffic that does not rely on
vehicle occupancy data or effective vehicle lengths.
Queuing Analysis
Delay time= Actual travel – Ideal travel time
Ideal travel time:
Travel time under free flow conditions
Travel time

Business Research Test with Answers Essay
* Question 1 0 out of 2 points | | | An undergraduate business student has purchased a laptop
computer for use during exams. This laptop is perfectly reliable except for two parts: its microchip,
which has a failure rate of one in every twenty hours of operation; and its battery, which has a
failure rate of one in every ten hours of operation. In addition, on average the battery will wear out
in five hours, with a standard deviation of 30 minutes. Assuming that a new battery has just been
installed, what is the probability that the battery will perform reliably during a one–hour exam?
Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | 0.05 | Correct Answer: | 0.9 | | | | | * Question 2 2 out of 2 points | | |
The ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
put to effective capacity | | | | | * Question 10 0 out of 1 points | | | Which of the following is a tactic
that helps service capacity management?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | promotions | Correct
Answer: | all of the above | | | | | * Question 11 0 out of 1 points | | | The term sub–optimization is
best described as the:Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | result of failure to adhere to the steps in the
decision process | Correct Answer: | result of individual departments making the best decisions for
their own areas | | | | | * Question 12 0 out of 1 points | | | The extra demand intended to offset
uncertainty is a:Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | timing bubble | Correct Answer: | capacity cushion
| | | | | * Question 13 0 out of 1 points | | | If the minimum expected regret is computed, it indicates to
a decision–maker the expected:Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | payoff under risk | Correct Answer:
| value of perfect information | | | | | * Question 14 1 out of 1 points | | | When the output is less than
the optimal rate of output, the unit cost will be:Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | higher | Correct
Answer: | higher | | | | | * Question 15 1 out of 1 points | | | A basic question in capacity planning
is:Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | all of the above | Correct

Game Theory and Life Insurance
Astln Bulletin 11 (198o) 1–16 A GAME T H E O R E T I C LOOK AT L I F E I N S U R A N C E
UNDERWRITING* JEAN LEMAIRE Universit6 Libre de Bruxelles Tim decision problem o[
acceptance or rejection of life insurance proposals is formulated as a ~vo–person non cooperattve
game between the insurer and the set of the proposers Using the mmtmax criterion or the Bayes
criterion, ~t ~s shown how the value and the optunal stxateg~es can be computed, and how an
optimal s e t of medina!, mformatmns can be selected and utlhzed 1. FORMULATIONOF THE
GAME The purpose of this paper, whose m a t h e m a t i c a l level is elementary, is to d e m o n s t
r a t e how g a m e t h e o r y can help the insurers to formulate a n d solve some of their
underwriting ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
2oi–2o3)). The shaded zone represents the false alarm probability, the dotted region the success
probability. Each critical value determines those two probabilities. If the critical value is moved to
the right, the detector becomes slower. If it is moved to the left, it become~ more nervous. The set of
all the critical values LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING healthy [ non healthy value
acceptance t | of the t n g variable dlSCrlmlnat relectlon Fig. 3 Y Ps Fig 4 defines the efficiency
curve of the d i s c n m i n a n t variable. The weaker the dlscriminant power of this variable, the
nearest to the bissectmg line its efficiency line. A perfect discrimmant variable has a triangular
efhciency x y z . The set of all the detectors determines a set of values for the game. The highest
value v* for the insurer is reached when the p a y o f f line is horizontal. This can be roughly seen as
follows (for a more rigorous proof see LUCE and RAIFFA (1957, pp. 394–396)): the critical value,
m o v i n g from left to right, generates a family of hnes with decreasing slope. If .Pat chooses a d e t
e c t o r with 6 JEAN LEMAIRE a pos~ttve slope, P= can reduce his payoff below v* b y always
presenting h e a l t h y proposers. Similarly, ~f the slope is negative, a continuous flow of non h e a l
t h y proposers will keep P~'s payoff below v*. ~yotl to Pt I D A C h , a i r h~ rmn heulth, Fig 5 The
optimal detector can be easdy obtained b y equating the payoffs E and F

The Scientific Field Of Game Theory
The scientific field of game theory is the usage of mathematics to predict and analyze "conflict,
cooperation, and behaviors of thinking people" and the different strategies that can be applied in
each case. Using mathematical fields such as calculus, statistics, and others, people who study game
theory are able to formulate models and find the outcomes of a variety of different strategies. More
importantly, game theory is not limited to games such as chess or poker, but a wide variety of fields
including economics, computer science, biology and even political science. To understand why
game theory underlies these other fields, one must first understand what a game is.
A game is any situation that contains a set of players, a set of possible actions (strategies) for each
player, and a set of payoffs for each player resulting from the strategies chosen. This definition
allows almost any social situation to be classified as a game as different people perform actions
resulting in a benefit or loss for themselves. However, the key to any science is the ability to predict
what would happen next, and with game theory, players must be rational in order to achieve this.
Needless to say, very often, game theory fails to predict the true outcome of a given situation when
put to practical testing.
The field of game theory had existed for centuries, in a variety of forms, such as strategies for board
games or the battlefield. Even in Charles Darwin 's book The Descent of Man

Rrw02 Week 1 Assignment
During my INRW 0302 class, the professor helped me to get into the internship. That internship
helps me learn about our career before taking the class. Unfortunately, the internship was not
completed is because I was too late to tell the employer about my driver license number. As the
result, they did not call me to work and I really feel nothing to worry about; because they can just
contact me after the holiday. If they did not call me; there is nothing for me to worry about. To learn
about my career better, I went to AsimAli channel and search computer science. The video showed
as Lecture 0 – Introduction to Computer Science I, it talks the computer science is fast growing a
career. The video tells that the computer scientist must learn to know what is Binary, ASCII.
Algorithms, Pseudocode, Source code, Compiler, Object code, Scratch, Statements, Boolean
expressions, Conditions, Loops, Variables, Functions, Arrays, Threads, Events. The binary number
system is a central role that how information is stored on computers. It made up of electronic
circuits, which have 2 states: on and off. ASCII stands for American Standard Code for ... Show
more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Algorithms are set of steps for solving a problem; algorithms also make the program faster. For
example, when you are checkers games and you want the user to be able to play against the
computer. Computer scientist must figure how to a checkers' program that never loses by using the
minimax search algorithm to search through the huge tree of possible moves. Another interesting
topic that I learned in the video is object code. Object code is the output of a compiler after
processes source code; source code was written by a human in a programming language for a
computer program. A compiler is a conversion of source code into object code. Object code is
usually a CPU, but sometimes it designed to convert source code into an assembly language or into
some other programming

Decision-Making Models Essay
Decision–Making Models Negotiations and decisions are a part of everyday business. In order to
make a successful decision, it is necessary to understand how to make rational and sound decisions.
Decisions that are rash, made on snap judgments, and past experiences can prove detrimental to a
business. A deficit in basic thinking and decision making is felt at all levels of an organization (Gary,
1997). Decisions can have long term and short term impacts on organizations and their world in
which they exist (Turner & Dean, 2008). In order to understand the process of making a sound and
good decision, it is necessary to define and understand several decision–making models. These
models help to make clear the issues to be addressed and the ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
For example, an organization attempting to win a large bid, important factors to consider are a
preferred supplier, trust with the customer, the offer itself, and the price (Arsham, 2009). When
Japan and America were negotiating the export/import of automobiles, each country had to concede
and objective. Japan did not want to allow American–built cars in their country and the United
States had to continue importing Japanese–built automobiles. In the end, Japan and the United States
agreed on an import/export solution. In order for an organization to use a decision–model or begin
negotiations, one must also learn how to rate and satisfy the solutions that have evolved. In addition,
the third model is satisfying solutions. In this model, there are six steps to define and rate criteria
and alternatives (Gary, 1997). These steps need to be followed when one is making a decision based
on criteria. The first step is to define the problem by "diagnosing the problem in terms of its
symptoms" (Gary, 1997). Secondly, the criteria must be identified. After the criterion has been
identified, it must be assigned a numerical value based on its importance. Thence, alternatives
should be generated, alternatives rated upon each criterion, and the values summed and weighed
(Gary, 1997). This model is best used when an organization must make major decisions. For
example, when an

2010 03 21 210212 ArmyGuySunday
K Brown is the principal owner of Brown oil inc, after quitting his university teachihng job, ken has
been able to increase his annual salary by a factor of over 100. at the present time, ken is forced to
consider purchasing some more equipment for brown oil because of competition. His alternatives
are showing in the following table: Equipment Favorable Market $ Unfavorable Market$ Sub 100
300,000 –200,000 Oiler J 250,000 –100,000 Texan 75,000 –18,000 For ex, if ken purchases a Sub
100 and if there is a favorable market he will realize a provit of 300,000. On the other hand if the
market is unfavorable ken will suffer a loss of 200,000. But ken has alwasy been very optimistic
decison maker a) what type of decision is Ken facing ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Interpret the value of r2 in the context of the problem r2 = 0.8474 r = sqrt(0.8474) = 0.92054 84% of
the variance in the second exam score is explained by the first exam score. 3)Accountatns at the firm
walker and walker believed that several travleing executives submit unusualy high travel
voucherswhen they return from trips. The accounts. took a smaple of 200 vouchs sumbited last year
the then developed the following mulitiple regression equation relating expected travel cost (Y) to
number days on the road (X1) and distance traveled (X2) in miles: y= $90,000+$48.50X1+$0.40X2
The coefficient of correlation computed was 0.68. a) if thomas williams returns form a 300 mile trip
that took him of of town for 5 days, what is the expected amount that he should claim as expenses?
y= $90+$48.50(5)+$0.40(300) y = $452.50 b) williams submitted a reimbursement request for $685
what should the accountant do? The accountant should calculate a 95% prediction interval for the
regression model, and see whether or not $685 falls within it. If not, then the accountant can be 95%
certain that Williams' expenses are too high, based on the current model. This does not necessarily
mean that Williams has submitted a fraudulent report, as there may be another common cause. c)
comment on the vailidit of this model/. Should any other variable be included? Which ones? Why If
the correlation coefficient is 0.68, then the

Linear Programming Assignment Essay
PART A – Linear Programming 1 a) Linear Programing Model Decision Variables: Let x = acres of
watermelon Let y = acres of cantaloupe Objective Function: Maximize Z = 390x + 1300y –
5(20x + 15y) + 5(2x + 2.5y) = 270x + 300y – 100x + 75y + 10x + 12.5y = 256x + 284.5y where Z =
total profit 390x = profit from watermelons 1300y = profit from cantaloupe 5(20x + 15y) = cost
of fertilizer 5(2x + 2.5y) = cost of labour Identification of Constants: Maximize Z = 256x + 284.5y
Subject to x + y ≤ 100 (acres) 50x + 75y ≤ 6,000 (water) x ≤ 0 y ≤ 0 1 b) Sketch of ... Show more
(0.94,0) 0.85(0.94) + 0.65(0) = $0.799 3) Linear Programing Model Decision Variables: Let a =
Automobile Loans Let f = Furniture Loans Let o = Other Secured Loans Let s = Signature Loans
Let r = Risk–free Securities Objective Function: Maximize Z = 0.8a + 0.1f + 0.11o + 0.12s + 0.9r
where Z = total annual return 0.8a = annual return automobile loans 0.1f = annual return on furniture
loans 0.11o = annual return on other secured loans 0.12s = annual return on signature loans 0.9r =
annual

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