More Related Content Similar to World Energy Outlook 2013 (20) More from International Energy Agency (20) World Energy Outlook 2013 2. The world energy scene today
Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten
Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
… and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce
Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers
Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
© OECD/IEA 2013
3. The engine of energy demand growth
moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
Share of global growth
2012-2035
Eurasia
Latin
America
Europe
1 370
United
States
8%
China
1 710
4 060
2 240
Middle 1 050
East
Brazil
480
1 030
Africa
1 540
Eurasia OECD
1 000
Africa
440
Japan
Southeast
Asia
5% 4%
8%
Middle 10%
East
65%
India
Non-OECD
Asia
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade,
but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
© OECD/IEA 2013
4. A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
1987-2011
Gas
2011-2035
Coal
Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Mtoe
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years
ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
© OECD/IEA 2013
5. Emissions off track in the run-up
to the 2015 climate summit in France
‘Carbon budget’ for 2 °C
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Total emissions
1900-2035
Gt 800
Remaining
budget
600
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
49%
OECD
400
1750-2011
‘Carbon budget’ for 2 °C
2012-2035
200
OECD
51%
1900
-1929
1930
-1959
1960
-1989
1990
-2012
2013
-2035
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita
levels are only half of OECD; the 22 °C carbonbudget’ is being spent much too quickly
the °C ‘carbon budget
© OECD/IEA 2013
6. Oil use grows, but in a
narrowing set of markets
Oil demand by sector
region
mb/d 105
100
Other
Gasoline
95
Diesel
90
Other
Middle East
India
85
OECD
China
80
75
2012
Transport
Petrochemicals
Other
sectors
2035
China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops; demand is
concentrated in transport, where diesel use surges by 5.5 mb/d, & petrochemicals
,
© OECD/IEA 2013
7. Turbulent times for the refining sector
Refinery capacity and operation
mb/d 105
Other
Middle East
India
New refinery
capacity
China
100
95
90
Existing
spare &
excess
capacity
85
80
Oil bypassing
refineries
Spare &
excess
capacity
with 10 mb/d
at risk of
closure
by 2035
Oil demand
processed
by refineries
75
70
65
2012
2035
More oil bypassing the refining system and new capacity in growing non-OECD
markets piles pressure on existing refiners, especially in Europe
© OECD/IEA 2013
8. Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
Conventional:
2013-2025
Middle East
2025-2035
Brazil
Rest of the world
Unconventional:
2013-2025
Light tight oil
Oil sands, extra-heavy oil,
coal/gas-to-liquids, & other
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
mb/d
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,
but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
© OECD/IEA 2013
9. Brazil cuts a distinctive profile
Brazil oil production
mb/d 6
Electricity mix by fuel, 2035
100%
Oil production:
Other
5
80%
Deepwater
4
60%
Electricity generation:
3
Other renewables
40%
Bioenergy
2
Hydropower
20%
Nuclear
1
Fossil fuels
2012
2025
2035
Brazil
World
Complex deepwater projects see Brazil joining the top ranks of global oil producers,
while the domestic power mix remains one of the least carbon-intensive in the world
© OECD/IEA 2013
10. Capacity to change?
Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2013-2035
United States
Net additions
Additions
European Union
Retirements
Japan
China
India
Middle East
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
GW
China & India together build almost 40% of the world’s new capacity;
60% of capacity additions in the OECD replace retired plants
© OECD/IEA 2013
11. Renewables power up around the world
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035
TWh 2 100
Other
renewables
Other
ASEAN
renewables
Other
United
renewables
States
Solar PV
Solar PV
Africa
Solar PV
Japan
Wind
China
1 800
1 500
1 200
900
600
300
Wind
European
Union
Hydro
Europe, Japan
and United States
Wind
Latin
America
Hydro
Hydro
India
China
India, Latin America,
ASEAN and Africa
The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double
to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs
© OECD/IEA 2013
12. Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
Natural gas
Electricity
5×
Reduction
from 2013
4×
2035
2013
2003
3×
2003
2×
United States
Japan
European
Union
China
Japan
European
Union
China
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels
but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist
© OECD/IEA 2013
13. An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
+3%
European Union
+1%
Today
36%
10%
+2%
+2%
7%
3%
2%
China
Middle East
India
Japan
7%
United States
-3%
-10%
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share
for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
© OECD/IEA 2013
14. LNG from the United States
can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
$/MBtu
18
15
12
$/MBtu
12
9
9
6
6
3
3
To Asia
Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping
& regasification
United States price
To Europe
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global
market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
© OECD/IEA 2013
15. Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global
energy demand & trade
Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East
remains central to the longer-term outlook
Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here
to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector
is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent
© OECD/IEA 2013