Energy security- Geography

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Energy security- Geography

  1. 1. ENERGY SECURITY
  2. 2. ENERGY SUPPLY, DEMAND AND SECURITY
  3. 3. ENERGY SOURCES <ul><li>Renewable energy source : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy source capable of natural regeneration on a human time scale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. solar power, wind power </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Non-renewable energy source </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy source that is finite on a human time scale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Once exhausted, it can only be replaced over considerable periods of geological time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. coal, natural gas </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Recyclable energy source </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reprocessed energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. uranium in nuclear fission can be used repeatedly </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Primary energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy found in natural resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I.e. original sources of energy – including renewable and non-renewable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Secondary energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Primary energy that has been converted to a more convenient form </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. electricity </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES <ul><li>Russia and Eastern Europe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High reserves of natural gas and coal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amongst top ten countries for oil and uranium </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy surplus </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Europe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependent on energy imports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low energy efficiency – high wastefulness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of fossil fuel supply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy insecurity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Middle East </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large oil reserves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unstable regimes affecting fossil fuel supply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy surplus </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES CONTD. <ul><li>North America </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large coal resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity to exploit oil reserves in Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Huge energy consumption – outweighs supplies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy insecurity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Asia (excluding Russia) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large coal and uranium reserves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rapidly increasing demand – outweighs supplies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy insecurity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sub-Saharan Africa </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependency on foreign TNCs to exploit supply, e.g. oil in Nigeria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Poverty </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. PHYSICAL FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES <ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. the need to keep cool in hot countries, by way of air conditioning, significantly increases energy consumption in these countries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Availability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. geology determines availability of oil and coal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Local variations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. cloud cover and wind speed affect availability of solar and wind energy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Solar variations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. stronger sun and longer sunshine hours along equator, therefore more potential for solar energy </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. HUMAN FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES <ul><li>Energy infrastructure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. in LDCs, the infrastructure often doesn’t exist to extract energy reserves such as oil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy affordability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. in some parts of the world where modern forms of energy are available, many people cannot afford to use it </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cultural preferences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. tradition keeps people using traditional forms of energy such as open coal fires for heating </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY <ul><li>Energy Security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The extent to which an affordable, reliable and stable energy supply can be achieved </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Factors affecting energy security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Natural hazards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political instability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependency on imports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Range of energy sources used </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs of energy </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. FACTORS AFFECTING UK’S ENERGY SECURITY <ul><li>Gas availability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Diminishing North sea gas, expected to run out within 50 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2004, over 90% of the UK’s gas supply was produced in the UK </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2020, the gas supply from the UK is predicted to be less than 10%, with 20% expected to be imported from Norway, 40% from Europe (excluding Norway) and the rest from other parts of the world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lead to decreasing political power of UK and increasing political power of gas rich nations, e.g. Russia (supplies 30% of European gas) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Oil availability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Volatile oil prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential for political instability between UK and oil producing states </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reached peak oil production in USA in 1970 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many argue global peak oil was reached in 2006 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global warming and renewable energy concerns </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Restrictions on over use of coal for energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited amount of sun for solar panels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerns over nuclear safety and waste plus cost of building of nuclear plants </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION <ul><li>Factors leading to increased energy consumption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population increase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved standards of living </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrialisation / economic development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rural to urban migration </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Future trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing power usage in China and India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Western Europe more energy efficient </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy consumption in developing world expected to double by 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy consumption in developed world expected to increase by 1/3 by 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy consumption of developed and developing world expected to be equal by 2050 </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY <ul><li>Energy consumption parallels that of its economic development – it has more than quadrupled since 1980. </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Secure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China is the biggest producer of coal in the world, and relies on coal for 70% of its electricity generation. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The country also has large oil fields and controls 3% of the world’s oil reserves. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Though no longer self sufficient, can afford to import oil, predominantly from the Middle East. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Also relies on renewable energy; HEP (including the Three Gorges Dam) accounts for 16% of its energy production and therefore are plans to build HEP dams on all major rivers in China. </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY CONTD. <ul><li>Energy Insecure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependency on coal – vulnerable to global warming sanctions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese government being pressure to find alternatives to coal in order to reduce its level of pollution and contribution to climate change. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s largest oil fields have now peaked and some say that oil will run out within two decades. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil deposits in the Tarim Basin, in the west of China, are difficult and expensive to exploit, due to its remote location and difficult geology. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s deepwater exploration for oil may be threatened by political conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HEP: natural hazards are a major threat to dams, and after the Sichuan earthquake, plans for extensive construction of dams may be reconsidered </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Natural gas: very expensive and difficult to build pipelines from gas fields in Western China while liquefied gas is in short supply </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY INSECURITY
  14. 14. ENERGY PATHWAYS <ul><li>Energy pathway </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The flows of energy from producer to consumer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Oil pathways </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Middle East exports the most oil – approximately 4000 barrels to Japan, 3000 to Europe and 2000 to North America </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Former Soviet Union exports almost 7000 barrels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>South America exports approximately 2,500 barrels to USA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Europe exports just 408 barrels – to North America </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gas pathways </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Main gas pathway is trans-Siberian pipeline from Russia to Eastern Europe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New gas pipeline planned to transport gas from the Middle East to Eastern Europe to decrease dependency on Russia </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. ENERGY PATHWAYS CONTD. <ul><li>Factors which make energy pathways vulnerable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geopolitical connections between countries (Ukraine-Russia) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>War – e.g. Gulf war, Iraq war </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strikes by energy workers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Damaged infrastructure from natural disasters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Disintegration of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Terrorism </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE <ul><li>Russia and Ukraine Gas Dispute </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In November / December 2004, Ukraine’s government changed. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This government had pro-Western policies as opposed to pro-Russian policies. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As a result, Russia quadrupled the price of its gas to Ukraine and the government of Ukraine refused to pay. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gazprom (51% owned by Russian government) cut of the gas to Ukraine. </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD. <ul><li>Europe’s dependency on Russia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Russia supplies a large proportion of Europe’s gas, and most of this is piped through Ukraine. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When Gazprom stopped supplying gas to Ukraine, the flow of gas to the rest of Europe fell by 40% in some areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Countries that rely on Russian gas could suffer economically if gas is cut </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Europe’s energy security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gazprom relies on income from gas exports to Europe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Russian gas was stable even during the Cold war </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New pipelines planned which bypass Ukraine and Blarus </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>South Caucus pipeline will bring gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Europe looking alternative energy sources </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD. <ul><li>South Stream Pipeline </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Proposed gas pipeline owned by Gazprom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aims deliver gas from central Asia and Russia to central Europe and Italy through the Balkans </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will rival the proposed Nabucco pipeline, owned by the EU to deliver gas to Eastern Europe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EU believe that Russia aims to use their gas supplies for political power and to outcompete the Nabucco pipeline </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY <ul><li>Canada’s oil sands </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water and type of oil called bitumen </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Largest reserves of oil sands are in Alberta in Canada; produced a million barrels of oil per day in 2003 and plan to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs of exploiting oil sands </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive to extract oil </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Very energy intensive and a large source of greenhouse gas emissions – conventional oil production requires much less energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Very water intensive – 2 to 5 barrels of water to produce every barrel of oil </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental impacts – removal of trees, shrubs and soil </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY: CANADA’S OIL SANDS <ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide an alternative source of oil when other conventional soruces are unavailable for political or access reasons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Could meet 16% of North America’s demand for oil by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Additional source of oil until more renewable sources are developed / implemented </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Benefits Canadian economy – accounted for 20% of total exports in 2007 </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. ENERGY PLAYERS <ul><li>Cartel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>An association of producers or suppliers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Formed to monopolise the production and distribution of a product to control prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advantages of cartels for producers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Able to collectively control supply and therefore global prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maximises profits of producers – when state owned, also GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political power – e.g. Yom Kippur war oil embargo where OPEC cut off supply to USA so they would stop supporting Israel </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Disadvantages of cartels for producers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To ensure oil prices remain high, supply must be relatively low, meaning overall income is limited </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advantages of cartels for consumers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aim of cartel is to have stable prices – increases reliability for consumer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Disadvantages of cartels for consumers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Commodity traders cannot control prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political instability / conflict may affect supply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highest prices </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. ENERGY SECURITY AND THE FUTURE
  23. 23. GLOBAL ENERGY UNCERTAINTIES <ul><li>Factors contributing to global energy uncertainties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Future performance of global economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scale of global population growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of rising living standards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Discovery of new energy technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scale of possible witch to renewable energies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergent economies energy demands </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS <ul><li>Business as usual </li></ul><ul><li>Do nothing – fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No investment needed in renewable energy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>55% increase in global energy related C02 emissions by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of global emissions by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Multi-energy solution </li></ul><ul><li>Meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduces CO2 emissions as a result of clean energy production </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive to invest in renewable / recyclable energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear energy controversial – nuclear waste and safety of plants </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS CONTD. <ul><li>Energy conservation </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing the amount of energy used </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decrease global energy related CO2 emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extends time that fossil fuels can be used </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Likely to inhibit growth of developing countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Requires large investment from governments globally </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN FRANCE <ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>75% of electricity generated from nuclear power – helps to meet high energy demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Largest exporter of electricity from nuclear power – increases GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low levels of CO2 per capita </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Helps meet targets set by Copenhagen summit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmentalists view (James Lovelock): </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Amount of uranium needed is significantly less than coal and oil (small bottle of uranium = 200 tonnes of oil) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Amount of nuclear waste is minimal unlike 700 tonnes of CO2 produced by fossil fuels </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear far cheaper while oil / coal prices will increase </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear waste sent to Normandy for reprocessing – 97% recycled and 3% stored and disposed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land needs to cleared to build plants – visual pollution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Danger of nuclear disaster (Chernobyl, 1986) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive - €15 billion for nuclear waste disposal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear of terrorists getting hold of nuclear energy </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CUMBRIA <ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment – 10,000 employees, 90% from West Cumbria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attracts investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases local income and therefore council spending </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Radioactive waste </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reliance on one industry – dangerous if it closes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dangerous – 21 serious incidents of accidents between 1950 and 2000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some waste dumped in Irish sea – Irish government pressuring Sellafield to close </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Visual pollution – damages tourist industry </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. WIND POWER <ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind is free – low efficiency is unimportant as it doesn’t coast to harness it and it is an infinite resource </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind turbines save 4 million tonnes of carbon annually </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low efficiency – only 30% of energy harnessed in comparison with 60% for coal powered plants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unreliable – power generated can double one day to the next – may not always meet demand so need fossil fuels as backup </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long process to build wind farms – must be approved by government, councils, locals etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive to build wind turbines – price will increase as less efficient sites will have to be used (efficient sites already used) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmentalist’s point of view (James Lovelock again): </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Far too late’ for renewable energy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1 nuclear station = 3000 wind turbines </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>On-shore wind farms damage farmland that will be needed to grow food </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ruins aesthetic (visual pollution) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Inefficient </li></ul></ul></ul>
  29. 29. ENERGY CONFLICTS <ul><li>Terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil processing plant </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Al Qaida terrorists tried to take over Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attempted to drive vehicles loaded with explosives into the compound </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two hour gun battle between officials and terrorists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two terrorists and two guards killed but no damage to plant </li></ul></ul><ul><li>US invasion of Iraq – possible reasons </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Saddam Husain was considered a threat to the security of Western oil supplies in Middle East – by 2003 he was making deals with Russian and Chinese oil companies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Iran as an energy power </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 rd largest oil reserves and 2 nd largest natural gas reserves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan and China both import 13% of their oil from Iran </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alliances developing between Moscow, Tehran and Beijing – energy exports from Russia and Iran in exchange for Chinese goods </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. RADICAL NEW APPROACHES <ul><li>Kyoto protocol </li></ul><ul><li>Agreements for MDCs to cut emissions and for NICs to monitor emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term agreement to reduce global CO2 emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NICs such as China and India had no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>USA didn’t sign protocol </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cap and trade scheme (2007) </li></ul><ul><li>Government sets a limit (cap) on carbon emissions – carbon emissions not used can be sold as credits to companies that produce over the limit </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Limits emissions in the private sector </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial motivation for companies to use less energy credits so they sell them </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Companies can continue releasing high emissions by buying energy credits from lower polluting companies </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. RADICAL NEW APPROACHES CONTD. <ul><li>Green taxes </li></ul><ul><li>In the UK, vehicle exercise duties (VED) tax vehicles according to their level of CO2 emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Other taxes include fuel tax and aviation tax </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Encourages less polluting vehicles to be used </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Those who can afford the VED may use pollution vehicles anyway </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Combined heat and power (CHP) </li></ul><ul><li>Captures and regulates the waste heat produced in electricity generation </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cuts emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases efficiency of electricity generation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can use biofuels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Predominantly uses fossil fuels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive </li></ul></ul>

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