Presentation given the Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference in Belfast on Wednesday 4th October 2017. Three Lessons from Dubai about meeting rapid demand for schooling. Five Prophecies about the future of schooling: 1) For Profit Education will be the norm in the world 2) Being taught by a specialist teacher in a classroom will be a luxury 3) Blended Learning and Virtual Reality Teaching will be the disruptors of education 4) There will be ‘superstar teachers’ commanding very high salaries 5) Primary teachers will be assisted by robots Three Questions: 1) What will the future workplace look like? What is the future of the professions? Will there be jobs that we haven’t thought of? 2) What will schools look like in the future? Can we replace specialist teachers with technology or with ‘para-teachers’? 3) What should we be teaching young people to prepare them for the future? What will be valued in the mid-C21?

1. How Disruptive Innovationmay
changeschoolsin thefuture:
LessonsfromDubai
Mark S. Steed,MA (Cantab.) MA (Nottingham), MSc (Ashridge-Hult Business School)
Director, JESS, Dubai
@JESSDubai
@JESS_Director
@IndependentHead
HMC Conference, Belfast Wednesday 4th October, 2017

2. TheGlobalContext
Question:
What is the greatest
educational problem that
we face in the world today?

3. TheGlobalContext
My Answer:
There are 263 million children
currently not in education.
Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics, Fact Sheet No.39 October 2016

4. TheGlobalContext
TeacherShortages
Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics, Fact Sheet No.39 October 2016
The world will need
3.3 million more primary teachers
and 5.1 million more lower
Secondary teachers by 2030.

5. TheFutureofSchoolingDebate
Three
Questions
Five
Prophecies
Four
Lessons

6. The Future of
Schooling Debate
ThreeQuestions
What will schools look like in the future?
What should we be teaching young
people to prepare them for the future?
What will the future workplace look like?

7. DisruptiveInnovation
The changing world of big business

8. Disruptive
Innovation
of the
Hotel Industry
MarketValue: $20.4bn
Employees: 169,000
No of Hotels: 5,000+
MarketValue: $31.obn
Employees: 130
No of Hotels: 0
Market value data at 01/09/2017

9. Disruptive
Innovation
of the
Car Industry
MarketValue: $58.6bn
Employees: 33,000
No of Cars sold: 15,800
(2016)
MarketValue: $51.4bn
Employees: 209,000
No of Cars sold: 9.96m
(2016)
Market value data at 01/09/2017

10. Disruptive
Innovation
of the
Retail Industry
MarketValue: $474.4bn
Employees: 350,000
MarketValue: $244.0bn
Employees: 2.3m
Market value data at 01/09/2017

11. Disruptive
Innovation
of the
Entertainment
Industry
MarketValue: $75.4bn
Employees: 3,500
MarketValue: $52.4bn
Employees: 21,500
Market value data at 01/09/2017

12. Disruptive
Innovation
of
Education
Contribution to £9.5bn
UK GDP:
Employees: 227,200
ISC 2016/17 Key Figures
?

13. Disruptive
Innovation
of
Education
Oxford Martin Programme
report concluded that:
Secondary School teaching
is one of the least likely
professions to be impacted
by future technology.
Frey & Osborne, 2013, p.62

14. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is the future for employment?

15. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is thefuture
for employment?

16. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is thefuture
for employment?
If a ‘robot’ could do your job
quicker than you and better
than you for no pay, would
you still be employed?

17. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is thefuture
for employment?
'The crucial problem isn't
creating new jobs.
The crucial problem is
creating new jobs that
humans perform better than
algorithms.‘ (p.331)

18. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is the future
for the professions?
'In the long run, increasingly
capable machines will
transform the work of
professionals giving rise to
new ways of sharing practical
expertise in society.'
(p.303)
'Decades from now, today's
professions will play a much
less prominent role in society.'
(p.271)

19. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is the future
for the professions?
‘The best and brightest professionals
will endure the longest – those who
perform tasks that we prefer to leave
in the hands of human beings.
But there will not be a sufficiency of
these tasks to keep armies of
professionals in gainful employment.’
(p.290)
Fewer Professionals:

20. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is thefuture
for employment?
UTOPIA DYSTOPIA

21. What will the future
workplace look like?
What is thefuture
for employment?
There is an urgent need for an informed
ethical debate about the consequences
of Artificial Intelligence
before the technologies get too
advanced.
WARNOCK
REPORT 1980s

22. Research intoAlternative
Models forSchooling:
ReplacingTeachers?
Steed (2017)

23. The Disruption of
Schooling
Alternative
Models for
Schooling
Research into Alternative Models for Schooling
The Study
School Principals
in Dubai
School Owners
and CEOs in
Dubai
Why have alternative models
for secondary schooling not
been adopted in the way that
they are being adopted in
tertiary education?
• What are the likely drivers
towards alternative
models?
• What are the potential
roadblocks?
Steed (2017)

24. The Disruption of
Schooling
ReplacingTeacher
Tasks?
“Professional work should be decomposed,
that is broken down into constituent ‘tasks’
– identifiable, distinct, and separate
modules of work that make it up. Once
decomposed, the challenge then is to
identify the most efficient way of executing
each type of task, constituent with the
quality of work needed, the level of human
interaction required, and the ease with
which the decomposed tasks can be
managed alongside one another and pulled
together into a coherent offering.” (p.212)
Steed (2017)

25. Research into Alternative Models for Schooling
Decomposing ‘Teaching’ into ‘TeacherTasks’
The Disruption of
Schooling
ReplacingTeacher
Tasks?
Teaching - to transmit/impart subject information
Teaching - to set tasks to groups of students
Classroom Management and Supervision
Working with Individual Students
Assessment,Grading and Monitoring
Parental Communication and Reporting
Lesson Planning
Steed (2017)

26. ReplacingTeacher
Tasks?
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
Steed (2017)
Research into Alternative Models for Schooling
How would you cover Physics lessons when you
don’t have enough Specialist Physicists?

27. ReplacingTeacher
Tasks?
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
3. AVC Specialist - A qualified subject specialist teacher who is not
physically present who contacts the students via video-conferencing.
2. ATeaching Assistant who is not a qualified teacher.
1. A Non-Specialist - A qualified teacher who is not a qualified
specialist in the relevant subject to be taught.
4. An Online Learning Programme which students access via a
computer in school.
Research into Alternative Models for Schooling
Four Alternatives to SpecialistTeachers
Steed (2017)

28. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
1. QualifiedTeacher who is not a Subject SpecialistSteed (2017)

29. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
2. Teaching Assistant who is not a Subject SpecialistSteed (2017)

30. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
3. Subject Specialist usingVideo ConferencingSteed (2017)

31. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
3. Subject Specialist usingVideo ConferencingSteed (2017)

32. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
Steed (2017) 3. Subject Specialist usingVideo Conferencing

33. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
4. Online Learning ProgramSteed (2017)

34. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
4. Online Learning ProgramSteed (2017)

35. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
Steed (2017) 4. Online Learning Program

36. Research Findings
Alternatives to
Specialist
Teachers
Drivers
1. Improved Pedagogy
2. Reducing Costs
3. AddressingTeacher
recruitment issues
Blockers
1. Concerns about the
Quality of Student
Learning
2. Concerns about a
Change in Ethos of
the School
3. Concerns about
Parental Reaction
Steed (2017)

37. Glimpses into the
Future ofSchooling
Four Lessons from Dubai

38. Sustaining Innovations
Preserve and Consolidate
existing Structures, Processes and Cultural Norms
Efficiency Innovations
Increase the efficiency of
existing Structures, Processes and Cultural Norms
Clayton M. Christensen
Harvard University,
‘What is Disruptive Innovation?’
Harvard Business Review
December 2015
Disruptive Innovations
Transform the entire form of organization and management
of Established Institutions
Why Dubai?
Disruptive
Innovation

39. Clayton M. Christensen
Harvard University,
‘What is Disruptive Innovation?’
Harvard Business Review
December 2015
Disruptive Innovations
Transform the entire form of organization and
management of Established Institutions
Why Dubai?
Disruptive
Innovation
Originate in Low-End and New-Market
footholds

40. Why Dubai?
Dubai:Thelargest
private school
market in theWorld
Source: ISC Research Ltd. January 2017 – Used with Permission

41. Why Dubai?
Dubai:The largest
private school
market in theWorld
Source: ISC Research Ltd. January 2017 – Used with Permission

42. Why Dubai?
Dubai:The largest
private school
market in theWorld
Source: ISC Research Ltd. January 2017 – Used with Permission

43. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
1. Meetingthe
demandfor
schooling
109
131
136 138
143 141 143
149
159
169 173
185
195
250
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Growth of Private Schools in Dubai
No of Private Schools Inspected by DSIB Total No of Private Schools in Dubai
Source: KHDA DSIB Annual Inspection Report Findings, 2009-2016 and Key Messages 2016-17;
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/dubai-forecast-add-120-new-schools-in-next-decade-675181.html

44. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
1. Meetingthe
demandfor
schooling
1. The Not-For-Profit Sector was not equipped
to meet the rapid growth in demand

45. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
1. Meetingthe
demandfor
schooling
95% of Private Schools in
Dubai are For-Profit

46. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
1. Meetingthe
demandfor
schooling
Commercial Drivers
1. ROI
2. Economies of Scale
3. Scalability
4. Differentiated Markets
5. Keep costs down – especially staffing
6. Greater willingness to take risk

47. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
2.Differentiation of
the marketplace by
price.
2. Education offered at different price
points:
Premium
Mid-Range
Budget

48. Premium
Mid-Range
BudgetFour Lessons from
Dubai:
2.Differentiation of
the marketplace by
price.
Variables
• School and Class Size
• Facilities
• Qualifications ofTeachers
• Amount of ContactTime
2. Education offered at different price
points:

49. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
3. Investmentin
CentralisedIT
Systems
3. Pioneering Investment in centralised IT
to reduce costs and fee levels

50. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
3. Investmentin
CentralisedIT
Systems
3. Pioneering Investment in centralised IT
to reduce costs and fee levels

51. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
4. Embracing
Innovation
4. Embracing Innovation –
Blended Learning
Blended Learning
IB Diploma Programme
at GEMSWellington Silicon Oasis

52. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
4. Embracing
Innovation
4. Embracing Innovation –
Virtual RealityTeaching
Virtual Reality Panel Discussion hosted in Engage VR environment with avatars.

53. Four Lessons from
Dubai:
4. Embracing
Innovation
4. Embracing Innovation –
Virtual RealityTeaching
LiveVirtual Reality Teaching using 360 degree camera in JESS Classroom.

54. Five Prophecies about the
Future ofSchooling around
theWorld:
Looking into the Crystal Ball:

56. First Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Education
For-Profit
will become
the norm around
the world

57. First Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling

58. Second Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Being taught by
a specialist
teacher in a
classroom will be
a luxury

59. Second Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Premium Education
will be delivered by specialist teachers in
augmented classrooms with a range of resources.
Budget Education
will be delivered totally through online courses on
learning platforms
Mid-Range Education
will be delivered by “super-teachers” via
Virtual-Reality Conferencing

60. Second Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Budget Education
will be delivered totally through online courses on
learning platforms
Some education is better than no education

61. Second Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Premium Education
will be delivered by specialist teachers in
augmented classrooms with a range of resources.
Classroom of the Future

62. Third Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Blended
Learning and
Virtual Reality
Teaching will be
the disruptors of
education

63. Third Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Virtual RealityTeaching will be commonplace

64. Third Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Mid-Range Education
will be delivered by “super-teachers” via
Virtual-Reality Conferencing
Virtual RealityTeaching will be commonplace

65. Third Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Consider this if you don’t believe me:
“After Games, we’re going to make Oculus a
platform for many other experiences.
Imagine enjoying a courtside seat at a game,
studying in a classroom of students and
teachers all over the world, or consulting a
doctor face-to-face – just by putting on your
goggles at home.”

66. Fourth Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
There will be
‘superstar teachers’
commanding very
high salaries

67. Fourth Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
GreatVirtual Reality teachers will be able to
reach millions of students.
They will inevitably be very well paid.
It is likely that they will be famous and become
celebrities

68. Fourth Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
South Korean superstar teacher, Cha KillYong, made
USD$8 million in a year running an online cramming site.
Source: Washington Post 30/12/2014

69. Fifth Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Primary teachers
will be assisted by
robots

70. Fifth Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Primary Schooling
Will always need teachers in the classroom
Young children will always need human interaction
to shape their learning.
Society will always need schools to provide
childcare
Primary Schooling will need to teach the skills to
enable young people to access non-classroom
based forms of education.

71. Fifth Prophecy:
The Future of
GlobalSchooling
Primary Schooling
Teachers will be assisted by Robots
Humanoid ‘Nao’ robots manufactured by Aldebaran
are being trialled in S. Australia

72. The Future of
GlobalSchooling
And so . . . .

73. The Future of
Schooling Debate
ThreeQuestions
What will schools look like in the future?
Can we replace specialist teachers with
technology or with ‘para-teachers’?
What should we be teaching young
people to prepare them for the future?
What will be valued in the mid-C21?
What will the future workplace look like?
What is the future of the professions?
Will there be jobs that we haven’t thought of?

74. MarkS.SteedMA(Cambridge), MA(Nottingham),MSc(Ashridge-HultBusinessSchool)
DirectorofJESSDubai
Email: mss@jess.sch.ae
Twitter: @JESS_Director
@independenthead
LinkedIn: uk.linkedin.com/in/independenthead
Blog: http://independenthead.blogspot.com
SlideShare: http://www.slideshare.net/independenthead