James Thurlow and Valerie Mueller BOOK LAUNCH Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts Co-Organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets JAN 21, 2020 - 12:15 PM TO 01:15 PM EST

2. Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa
Beyond Stylized Facts
James Thurlow
IFPRI, Washington DC | January 21, 2020

3. Africa’s “youth problem”
 By 2050, 30 million new job
seekers will enter Africa’s
workforce every year
 Africa’s “youth bulge” is occurring
2-3 decades after other regions
 Can Africa create enough jobs in
today’s competitive global
economy?
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Millionsofpeople
Developed countries
Annual change in the working age
population (15-64 years)
Source: UNDESA
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other developing regions

4. Concerns about social unrest
 Many African governments are concerned that
youth unemployment will lead to widespread
protests & social unrest
 Evidence (from our book) confirms that youth
are more likely to protest if they are
unemployed or lack trust in political institutions
 Governments need policies that address the
long-term needs of youth, rather than mobilize
their short-term political support
Source: www.dw.com (Reuters / T. Negeri)
Protests in Ethiopia, 2017

5. But is Africa’s youth bulge unprecedented?
 Africa’s youth bulge is late,
but is of similar size to other
regions’ youth bulges
 Africa’s economy is lagging
East Asia, but doing better
than other regions were 2-3
decades ago (at least on
some indicators)
SSA
East
Asia
South
Asia
Latin
Amer.
MENA
Peak “youth bulge” year 2003 1985 1978 1976 1978
Youth / Working age pop. 39% 35% 35% 37% 38%
GDP per capita $814 $820 $457 $6498 $4266
Annual growth rate 3.4% 6.0% 2.2% 0.6% -2.1%
Youth unemployment 13% 10% 9% 11% 27%
Secondary school enrolment 27% 34% 25% 43% 40%
Sub-Saharan Africa today vs. other developing regions
during their “youth bulge” periods (peak + 15 years)
Source: Various (see Table 1.1 in Chapter 1)Note: Youth = 15-24 years

6. What is different about Africa’s youth challenge?
 Africa’s rural population continues to
grow, despite rapid urbanization
 Global poverty is concentrating in
rural Africa
 Africa will rely heavily on agriculture &
the rural nonfarm economy to create
enough jobs for its young workforce
2.2%
0.2%
1.9%
0.3%
2.0%
4.7%
4.1%
3.6%
3.3%
3.9%
SSA
East Asia
South Asia
Latin Amer.
MENA
Rural Urban
Annual population growth rates during
peak “youth bulge” periods
Source: UNDESA

7. Is there cause for optimism?
 African agriculture is already
growing in most countries &
moving beyond the early
“stages” of transformation
 Young Africans are better
educated than older workers &
could become “agents of
change” in rural areas
Subsistence
agriculture
1
Farm-nonfarm
linkages
2
Rural-urban
linkages
3
Modernized
agriculture
4
Youth are better educated & so more
likely to adopt better farm technologies
Youth are more likely to start & run more
successful nonfarm businesses
Youth are more likely to migrate & link to
faster growing urban markets
Common views about rural youth

8. Beyond stylized facts
 Many perceptions about African youth are based
on global & regional studies
 Drawing on country-level households surveys,
we question the established narratives about
youth in rural Africa
 We provide new evidence on the role of youth in
agricultural transformation & rural development

9. Outline of the book
 Africa in global & historical context
 Thematic chapters
o Migration & land scarcity
o Youth in national policies
o Political participation
 Country case studies
o Land constraints in Ethiopia
o Data limitations in Malawi
o Peri-urban development in Ghana
o Rural nonfarm enterprises in Tanzania
o International migration in Senegal
 Lessons learned
Country case studies
Senegal
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Malawi
Ghana
1
42
95
10

10. Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa
Lessons Learned
Valerie Mueller
IFPRI, Washington DC | January 21, 2020

11. Stages of agricultural transformation
Subsistence
agriculture
1
Farm-nonfarm
linkages
2
Rural-urban
linkages
3
Modernized
agriculture
4

12. Are youth more likely to drive the transition
from subsistence to commercial farming?
 Evidence that youth adopt better farm technologies is mixed
o Ethiopia: Youth less likely to receive visits from EAs or use improved technologies (fertilizers,
seeds, row planting), but more likely to use labor-saving technologies (tractors)
o Malawi: Youth (15-24) less likely to use modern inputs, but older youth (25-34) are more likely
o Ghana: Education is a stronger determinant of farm input use than age
 Even when youth do use better technologies, it is not clear that these
translate into higher farm productivity (also true to older adults)
Subsistence
agriculture
1

13. Are youth more likely to diversify out of
subsistence farming into nonfarm activities?
 Youth are more likely to engage in rural nonfarm activities, but the
level of off-farm employment remains low
 Education is important for rural nonfarm employment, but on its
own it is not enough to ensure success
o Ethiopia and Ghana: Access to markets, transportation and electricity is more important
o Malawi and Tanzania: Older people more likely to diversify and earn higher returns, because
of capital accumulation, work experience and social/economic networks
Farm-nonfarm
linkages
2

14. Does participation in the rural nonfarm
economy differ for young men and women?
 Yes, but gender patterns vary across countries
o Malawi and Senegal: Men dominate rural nonfarm employment
o Ghana: Female-headed households are spearheading the rural nonfarm sector
o Tanzania: Both men and women engage in nonfarm employment, but women often run less
productive enterprises (i.e., low-value food processing), possibly due to gender education gaps
Farm-nonfarm
linkages
2

15.  Youth are more likely to migrate, but not always for work reasons
o Ethiopia: Many youth move to urban areas to attend secondary school
 Migration is often between rural areas, not to urban centers
o Malawi and Tanzania: Urban migration provides more opportunities for rural youth to engage in
high-return activities, but rural-urban migration remains low, possibly due to high uncertainty of
securing employment
o Intra-rural migration also promotes income diversification, but migrants often keep one foot in
agriculture and so the gains to migration are smaller
Are youth more likely to link to faster
growing urban markets?
Rural-urban
linkages
3

16.  Rural youth living closer to big cities are more likely to work in
nonfarm activities, but proximity to small towns has mixed effects
o Ghana: Youth closer to small towns more likely to work off-farm
o Malawi: No small-town effect
 Types of job opportunities also differ by location
o Ghana: More informal manufacturing jobs close to small towns (e.g., food processing),
whereas more service and formal sector jobs closer to major urban centers
Do rural nonfarm job opportunities
depend on proximity to urban centers?
Rural-urban
linkages
3

17.  Avoiding youth unemployment will require government support
 Youth employment is now a major policy priority, but the means of
achieving this goal are not well-represented in current policies
o Policies emphasize labor supply issues (self-employment, education), but pay less attention
to labor demand issues (especially how to stimulate private sector job creation in the agri-
food-system beyond the farm)
o Policies rarely identify rural youth as a target group, but instead focus on youth in general,
often implicitly giving greater weight to the needs of urban youth
 A more comprehensive approach to promoting youth employment
in rural areas is needed
Do governments have the right policies to create
jobs for rural youth?

18.  Governments are correct in emphasizing policies and investments
that create more jobs and promote inclusivity
o To ensure there are enough jobs and avoid rising unemployment and protests
 But these policies are needed for young and older workers alike
o Since everyone aspires to higher living standards and better working conditions
o And the policies that benefit young job seekers will also create a more dynamic economic
environment for everyone (energy, transport, electricity, ICT, etc.)
 Africa doesn’t have a “youth problem”, but rather faces the broader
challenge of promoting inclusive growth
Africa needs better policies, not “youth policies”