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Workshop on
Mobilizing Youth
within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs
CGIAR Consortium Office
Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015
Joint pres...
Understanding the context for
youth employment
1 -The structural challenges
Workshop on Mobilizing Youth
within Phase 2 CG...
CAUTION!
 Youth are not located on an island!
 They are fully embedded in the overall economy
and society
 Options for ...
REMINDERS ABOUT
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
The new patterns of population growth
Source: WPP 2012
Population increase among world regions
and countries: past and fut...
The new demographic structure
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Popu...
The changing weight of rural people
 Until 2050, rural population will decrease globally (-150M)
but rural SSA will conti...
The decreasing role of agriculture
 The role of rural areas and agriculture is fully
embedded within the process of struc...
The transformation pathway:
Similar trends, different pace (1965-2005)
Source: RuralStruc program
Agriculture shares decrease
with growing incomes
The major push of the labor force
is in SSA, South and SE Asia
Growth of the labor force (2010-2050) Yearly cohorts of new...
The specific situation of Africa
 African economic transition is lagging
 Dramatic changes since the 1960s but…
 Urbani...
Different contexts result in different
opportunities and constraints for youth
 The role of agriculture depends on off-fa...
Youth Employment in
Agriculture:
Prospects and Role for CGIAR
Karen Brooks, Director of the CGIAR
Research Program on Poli...
“Youth and agriculture” issues: Different regions,
different views
• East Asia: aging rural work force, few young women wa...
When is exit the problem? And when is staying the
problem?
Exit
– Opportunity if attracted out
• Good jobs off farms
• Lan...
Specific to Africa south of the Sahara: Despite exit, agriculture is
still the dominant employer and will remain so
Young Africans will work in agriculture
• Fortunately, this is a time of opportunity in
the sector, especially in Africa.
...
Technical backwardness shuts out young people—
quashes opportunities and aspirations
Biggest systemic constraint to youth employment in Africa
south of the Sahara is under-investment in agricultural research...
What kinds of jobs? Different pathways
Pathways have differential needs for land, capital
(finance), and information (skil...
70% of young Africans in agriculture have
less than complete primary schooling
Agendas for action and research
Action Agenda
• Land
• Skills
• Finance
• Technology
• Embed youth lens in virtually
every...
Assessment of Experience of World Bank and IFC with
Youth Employment Projects
IEG 2012
Success may simply be undocumented…...
Implications for CGIAR
• Measure impact of any pilot programs
– Design into plan from the beginning
• Increase collection ...
THANK YOU!
Photo credit: Neil Palmer (CIAT), Flickr
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Mobilizing Youth within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs

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Joint presentation by CIRAD Research Director Bruno Losch and PIM Director Karen Brooks at the CGIAR workshop on youth in agriculture and its role in the second phase of CGIAR. Research Programs (CRPs).

CGIAR Consortium Office, Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015.

Published in: Science
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Mobilizing Youth within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs

  1. 1. Workshop on Mobilizing Youth within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs CGIAR Consortium Office Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015 Joint presentation by Bruno Losch (CIRAD) and Karen Brooks (Policies, Institutions, and Markets)
  2. 2. Understanding the context for youth employment 1 -The structural challenges Workshop on Mobilizing Youth within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs Session 1 CGIAR Consortium Office Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015 Bruno Losch
  3. 3. CAUTION!  Youth are not located on an island!  They are fully embedded in the overall economy and society  Options for supporting youth are framed by the context  They must be included in development strategies
  4. 4. REMINDERS ABOUT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
  5. 5. The new patterns of population growth Source: WPP 2012 Population increase among world regions and countries: past and future
  6. 6. The new demographic structure -100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+ Population in millions Male 2015 Female 2015 Male 2035 Female 2035 -100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+ Population in millions Male 2015 Female 2015 Male 2035 Female 2035 -160 -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 160 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+ Population in millions Male 2015 Female 2015 Male 2035 Female 2035 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia and Pacific Source: Filmer & Fox. 2014. Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington DC: World Bank.
  7. 7. The changing weight of rural people  Until 2050, rural population will decrease globally (-150M) but rural SSA will continue to grow by 350 million and rural South Asia will increase till the mid-2040  In these two regions rising rural population is a challenge:  For the absorption of a growing labor force  For its consequences on demographic densities and farm structures and NR Rural Population Increase (2010-50) Source: WUP 2014
  8. 8. The decreasing role of agriculture  The role of rural areas and agriculture is fully embedded within the process of structural change  Growing productivity in agriculture => release of labor force for other sectors => exit to the city  Growing agricultural incomes => rural demand => rural diversification  Main world regions followed the historical pathway at different paces  Initiated with the European industrial revolution  Followed by European offshoots + Japan (until WWII) and then spread Latin America, South Korea, East Europe  The situation is more diverse in Asia and Africa with major differences between countries: many places are lagging
  9. 9. The transformation pathway: Similar trends, different pace (1965-2005) Source: RuralStruc program
  10. 10. Agriculture shares decrease with growing incomes
  11. 11. The major push of the labor force is in SSA, South and SE Asia Growth of the labor force (2010-2050) Yearly cohorts of new workers in SSA Africa will count for 60% of the world’s labor force increase •12 out of the 19m people entering the labor market/year in SSA live in rural areas •Between now and 2030, SSA’s economies will have to incorporate 370m youth, 220m in rural areas and 150m in cities Sources: WPP 2012; RuralStruc
  12. 12. The specific situation of Africa  African economic transition is lagging  Dramatic changes since the 1960s but…  Urbanization occurred without industrialization  Agriculture remains the biggest single source of employment (50 to 60%) with 30-35% in other informal activities and 5- 15% in the formal sector  The challenges of structural transformation are faced within a specific “moment”  Globalization: opportunities but competition  Growing natural constraints: resources and climate change  The African equation: “How to deal with a growing labor force with a poorly diversified economic structure in today’s context?”
  13. 13. Different contexts result in different opportunities and constraints for youth  The role of agriculture depends on off-farm opportunities and factors availability  The number of farms is impacted by demographic growth + exit options + available agricultural land (resulting from nature and infrastructure) + production systems (farm structure)  In Asia: the trend is towards labor shortage and growing farm sizes due to declining rural population (growth rate and urbanization)  In Africa: growing rural population results in more farms if land availability exists or decreasing sizes in case of land pressure  These features embrace the youth specifics related to factor and voice access and share of returns
  14. 14. Youth Employment in Agriculture: Prospects and Role for CGIAR Karen Brooks, Director of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
  15. 15. “Youth and agriculture” issues: Different regions, different views • East Asia: aging rural work force, few young women want to marry farmers—who will farm in the next generation? • Central Asia: young men migrate to Russia (until recently), women remain behind on farms • Africa south of the Sahara: (Ministry of Finance) urban areas have too many underemployed young people, better to keep them on farms • Africa south of the Sahara: (Ministry of Agriculture) young people don’t want to farm, abandoning rural areas • South Asia: Too few jobs all around, skills gaps Framing of the issue affects design of remedies
  16. 16. When is exit the problem? And when is staying the problem? Exit – Opportunity if attracted out • Good jobs off farms • Land and labor markets adjust quickly with minimal costs – Problem if pushed out • Few off-farm jobs; skills issues • Available jobs have low productivity; illegal sector • Join urban poor • Urban poverty preferred due to amenities Stay – Opportunity if chosen • New land available • Technical change, dynamism • Demand for food strong • Off-farm jobs and mixed livelihoods – Problem if stuck • Land markets locked up • Technical stagnation; backward technology • Young people feel trapped
  17. 17. Specific to Africa south of the Sahara: Despite exit, agriculture is still the dominant employer and will remain so
  18. 18. Young Africans will work in agriculture • Fortunately, this is a time of opportunity in the sector, especially in Africa. – Growing local and regional demand – Available land and water – Global prices likely to go back up – Potential to raise productivity • Key question is whether productivity rises enough to sustain competitiveness
  19. 19. Technical backwardness shuts out young people— quashes opportunities and aspirations
  20. 20. Biggest systemic constraint to youth employment in Africa south of the Sahara is under-investment in agricultural research 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Millions$(2005,PPP) Ag Spending, Research Ag Spending, Total Source: ASTI (Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators) database 2015 and SPEED (Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development) database 2015. Total spending on agriculture and agriculture research in Africa south of the Sahara, 2000-2009
  21. 21. What kinds of jobs? Different pathways Pathways have differential needs for land, capital (finance), and information (skills)
  22. 22. 70% of young Africans in agriculture have less than complete primary schooling
  23. 23. Agendas for action and research Action Agenda • Land • Skills • Finance • Technology • Embed youth lens in virtually everything; e.g., Science Agenda for African Agriculture • Support the informal sector Research Agenda • Rigorous impact assessments of pilots • Surveys to understand occupational choice • Age-disaggregated data on program beneficiaries for all programs • Age and adoption of technology • Age and control of land • Innovative ways to provide information and advice to low-skilled • Bundling of financial and other services to increase access
  24. 24. Assessment of Experience of World Bank and IFC with Youth Employment Projects IEG 2012 Success may simply be undocumented…in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Robust analytic work should underpin youth employment interventions because of the greater institutional risks they face. • Short term effects • Limited positive results • Little attention to cost effectiveness • Questionable results from short-term skills building • Little known about labor market outcomes, livelihoods • Basic dearth of evidence
  25. 25. Implications for CGIAR • Measure impact of any pilot programs – Design into plan from the beginning • Increase collection and analysis of age-disaggregated data • Provide training and mentoring opportunities for young scientists from developing countries • Work with NARS, NGOs, CBOs, media to raise visibility of young people • Integrative CRPs—highlight systemic constraints • Agri-food System CRPs – Identify features of technology that appeal to young people (if any) – Pilot interventions that make technology accessible to young people
  26. 26. THANK YOU! Photo credit: Neil Palmer (CIAT), Flickr

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