Lee Ann Jackson, OECD IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Food vs Fuel V2.0: Impacts of Biofuels on Agricultural Markets and Food Security Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) JAN 24, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EST

1. OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook 2022-
2031
Medium-term prospects for
biofuels
IFPRI/AMIS Policy Seminar
Food versus Fuel v2.0
Lee Ann Jackson, OECD
24 January 2023

2. Development of the world ethanol consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
bln L
United States Brazil China European Union Thailand India Canada Others

3. Development of the world biodiesel consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
bln L
European Union United States Brazil Indonesia
Argentina Thailand China Others

4. Biofuel demand trends in major regions
Brazil
China
Thailand
United
States
European
Union
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Change in
Ethanol
Demand
(%)
Change in Gasoline Demand (%)
Ethanol
Brazil
Indonesia
Thailand
United
States
European
Union
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Change in
Biodiesel
Demand
(%)
Change in Diesel Demand (%)
Biodiesel
Note: Shares calculated on demand quantities expressed in volume. The size of each bubble relates to the consumption
volume of the respective biofuel in 2021.

5. World biofuel production from traditional and
advanced feedstocks
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
PJ Base Period Traditional Base Period Advanced 2031 Traditional 2031 Advanced
Note: Traditional feedstocks are here defined as food and feed crop based biofuels. Values in Petajoules =
10E15 Joules.

6. Share of biofuel in total use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
Wheat Rice Other coarse
grains
Maize Sugarcane Vegetable oil Molasses
% % of biofuel in total use % of other industrial uses in total use

7. Global use of major commodities
Crushing of oilseeds is not reported as the uses of 'vegetable oil' and 'protein meal' are included in the total; Dairy refers to all dairy
products in milk solid equivalent units; Sugar biofuel use refers to sugarcane and sugar beet, converted into sugar equivalent units.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
2019-21
2031
Maize Other
coarse
grains
Rice Wheat Oilseeds
and
products
Pulses Roots
and
tubers
Meat Dairy Fish Sugar
Mt Food Feed Biofuel Other uses

8. Visit us at
www.agri-outlook.org
For inquiries or further information, please contact:
Hubertus Gay Holger Matthey
tad.contact@oecd.org EST-Projections@fao.org
Trade and Agriculture Directorate Trade and Markets Division
(OECD) (FAO)