public

1. www.eia.gov
U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021)
For
Center for Strategic and International Studies
October 6, 2021 | Washington, DC
By
Stephen Nalley, Acting Administrator
Angelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration

2. IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.
• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.
• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 2

3. 0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030
residential
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030
industrial
Energy use is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels
quickly in non-OECD regions
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 3
Energy consumption by sector
quadrillion British thermal units
Energy consumption by sector
quadrillion British thermal units
history projections history projections
OECD non-OECD
transportation
residential
commercial
industrial
transportation
commercial

4. IEO2021 includes COVID-19 impacts; Side cases include
alternative assumptions and newly expanded results
• IEO2021 Reference case
– Incorporates global COVID-19 impacts on the energy sector
– Uses the U.S. projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021,
which assumes U.S. laws and regulations as of September 2020
– Assumes implementation of current laws and regulations as of May 2021,
including existing climate law; Climate Considerations in the International
Energy Outlook (IEO2021)1 provides more details
– Uses Oxford Economics’ GDP projections, with a global growth rate of
2.8% per year
– Assumes 2050 world oil price reaches $95 per barrel (2020 dollars)
• Side cases explore alternative economic growth and oil price
assumptions
– High and Low Economic Growth cases: 3.7% per year and 2.0% per year
global GDP growth rate
– High and Low Oil Price cases: $176 per barrel and $45 per barrel 2050
world oil prices (2020 dollars)
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021
1 EIA, Climate Considerations in the International Energy Outlook (IEO2021), https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/climate.php
4

5. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent
and impartial energy information to promote sound
policymaking, efficient markets, and public
understanding of energy and its interaction with the
economy and the environment.
EIA’s role is unique. By providing an unbiased view
of energy markets, EIA increases transparency and
promotes public understanding of important energy
issues.
EIA has expanded its program in recent years to
provide a growing customer base with coverage of
increasingly complex and interrelated energy
markets.
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 5

6. $0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High
Economic
Growth
Reference
Low
Economic
Growth
High
Economic
Growth
Reference
Low
Economic
Growth
OECD
non-OECD
history projections
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021
EIA assumes a range of GDP and oil prices, which affect
projected energy consumption
6
Gross domestic product
trillion 2015 dollars
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World oil prices
2020 dollars per barrel
Low Oil Price
Reference
High Oil Price
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
history projections
High Economic Growth
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price
Low Economic Growth
Global energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
history projections

7. IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.
• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.
• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 7

8. 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD
non-OECD
history projections
World energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
By 2050, global energy use increases nearly 50%, driven by non-
OECD economic growth and population
8
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World gross domestic product (GDP)
trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
billion people
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
history projections history projections
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021

9. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
petroleum
and other
liquids
renewables
natural gas
coal
nuclear
Liquid fuels remain the largest source of primary energy in the
Reference case, but renewables use grows to nearly the same level
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021
1 Includes biofuels
2 Electricity generation from renewable sources is converted to Btu at a rate of 8,124 Btu/kWh
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2050
renewables
coal
petroleum
and other
liquids
natural gas
nuclear
1
Primary energy consumption by energy source, world
quadrillion British thermal units
Share of primary energy consumption by source, world
percentage
history projections
1
2
history projections

10. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
history projections
High Economic
Growth
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price
Low Economic
Growth
World liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
Liquid fuels consumption rises from 2020 in all IEO cases
10
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021

11. 0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands
Electric vehicle stock contributes to reduced emissions and
represents 31% of total passenger vehicle stock by 2050
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021
1 Electric stock includes full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that run on
liquid fuels when batteries become depleted
11
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands
total passenger stock
Light-duty passenger vehicle stock
billions of passenger vehicles
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands
history projections history projections history projections
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
conventional stock electric stock1

12. Energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rise, even as
carbon and energy intensity fall
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
non-OECD
OECD
Energy-related CO2 emissions
billion metric tons
history projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2020 2030 2040 2050
non-OECD
OECD
Carbon intensity
metric tons CO2 per billion
British thermal units
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2020 2030 2040 2050
non-OECD
OECD
Energy intensity
thousand British thermal units
per 2015 dollar of GDP

13. IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.
• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.
• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 13

14. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
In the electric power sector, renewable energy generation grows
significantly, with support from non-intermittent sources
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 14
World net electricity generation by source
trillion kilowatthours
history projections
solar
coal
natural
gas
wind
hydro-
electric
nuclear
other
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
non-renewables
renewables
OECD electricity generation
change from 2020
trillion kilowatthours
Non-OECD electricity
generation change from 2020
trillion kilowatthours

15. 0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
other
solar
wind
hydroelectric
nuclear
natural gas
coal
history projections
Installed electricity generating capacity, India
gigawatts
Installed electricity generating capacity, Canada
gigawatts
Growing intermittent generating capacity is supported by different
technologies, depending on each region’s respective resources
15
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
battery
storage
other
solar
wind
hydroelectric
nuclear
natural gas
coal
history projections

16. IEO2021 Highlights
• As a result of population and economic growth, if current policy and
technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050.
• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity demand, but
natural gas and coal, and increased use of batteries will be used to help meet
load and support grid reliability.
• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 16

17. 0% 2% 4% 6%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
history projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Nearly all energy consumption growth occurs in non-OECD Asia,
driven by economic growth
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 17
Americas
Asia
Europe
OECD energy consumption
by region
quadrillion British thermal units
Non-OECD energy consumption
by region
quadrillion British thermal units
Average annual percentage change
in GDP, 2020–2050, select regions
percentage
history projections
Asia
Middle East
Africa
Americas
Europe and
Eurasia

18. Non-OECD Asia leads growth in liquid fuels consumption
but has limited increases in crude oil production
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 18
0
5
10
15
20
2020 2030 2040 2050
0
5
10
15
20
2020 2030 2040 2050
Total liquid fuels consumption by select regions
million barrels per day
Crude oil production by select regions
million barrels per day
China
Other non-
OECD Asia
India
China
Other non-
OECD Asia
India

19. IEO2021 Highlights
• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption
and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a
result of population and economic growth.
• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but
natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load
and support grid reliability.
• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support
increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 19

20. Upcoming IEO2021 Issues in Focus
• Energy implications of potential iron- and steel-sector decarbonization
pathways
• Effects of changes in coal supply and demand on international trade and
electricity generation in India and Other non-OECD Asia
• Changes in composition of economic growth in China
IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 20

21. IEO2021 Release, CSIS
October 6, 2021 21