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Agriculture and Policy SEA

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Agriculture and policy in Southeast Asia: trends and opportunities
Jared Greenville, Senior Agriculture Policy Analyst, OECD

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Agriculture and Policy SEA

  1. 1. Agriculture and policy in Southeast Asia: trends and opportunities Jared Greenville, Senior Agriculture Policy Analyst, OECD
  2. 2. 2 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Southeast Asia: A growing agricultural producer -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1961-69 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 Net production Net per capita production Source: FAO STAT Annual compound growth %
  3. 3. 3 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Changing consumption patterns: increasing meat demand Source: OECD Outlook Annual compound per capita growth rate between 2015-2024
  4. 4. 4 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Changing consumption patterns: stable on rice Source: OECD Outlook Annual compound per capita growth rate between 2015-2024
  5. 5. 5 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Southeast Asia: growing agro-food trader 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Exports Imports Net Source: Comtrade USD billion
  6. 6. 6 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Agricultural policy varied, but strong self-sufficiency focus Self-sufficiency targets  Intensified post 2007/08  Rice centric Differing approaches  Insulation policies (trade barriers etc)  Public procurement and distribution  Regulatory (land constraints)  Also investments in infrastructure (irrigation)
  7. 7. 7 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Agricultural policies: lasting effects of the 2007/08 crisis -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Indonesia Viet Nam Philippines Cambodia Myanmar Rice wholesale price gaps (relative to Thai price) Source: OECD estimates
  8. 8. 8 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Some current policies have worked against resilience eg household food security in Indonesia -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Rice Market Price Support Raskin Fertilizer subsidy Crop insurance Food voucher Targeted cash transfer % point change in undernourishment Current policies Alternative policies Source: OECD (2015)
  9. 9. 9 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) What can drive productivity and smallholder engagement Critical factors within agriculture  Agricultural infrastructure  Access to credit  Capacity to meet standards  Training, extension, education levels  Land tenure systems Also outside agriculture  Ability for adjustment to occur  Connectivity, education, labour markets …
  10. 10. 10 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) In these areas, the region lags behind some peers Normalised difference to average index values (0=average, 1= 1 stdev from average, etc) -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Chile SouthAfrica Mexico Malaysia Turkey Brazil Russia Thailand Egypt Tunisia China Colombia CostaRica Morocco Ukraine India Philippines SriLanka Kenya Kazakhstan VietNam LaoPDR Indonesia Tanzania Ethiopia Pakistan Ghana Bangladesh Senegal Nigeria Cambodia Myanmar Farm finance Agricultural R&D Land market rights and access Agricultural infrastructure Sources: EIU, IFPRI & Millennium Challenge Account
  11. 11. 11 www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Potential to shift focus Policy redirect  Balance of agricultural programs towards facilitating investments  Agricultural infrastructure  Credit markets Other aspects of the enabling environment  Education  Connecting rural to urban communities  Opportunities outside agriculture
  12. 12. Contact us We look forward to hearing from you! Access all of the information from the Trade & Agriculture Directorate at: www.oecd.org/tad You can reach us via e-mail by sending your message to the following address: tad.contact@oecd.org We invite you to connect with us on Twitter by following our accounts: @OECDtrade @OECDagriculture

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