Explores the changes in the electric vehicle market, and how that could impact energy demand and markets going forward.

1. Future of Energy: EV Adoption Scenario Update
30 July 2020

2. EV Adoption
sources: HiddenLevers, Morgan Stanley Research, InsideEVs.com
United State Total Vehicle Sales (Millions) EV Market Share
As Total Vehicle Sales took a big hit due to
COVID it could negatively impact the adoption
of an already slowing EV market
EV marketshare is growing but still represents a tiny
fraction of all cars in the U.S.
- Edison Electric Institute

3. EV Adoption – TSLA
sources: HiddenLevers, electrek, Bloomberg
• TSLA has risen ~400% ytd while the S&P
500 has been flat for the year
• while TSLA remains the leader in EV, a
prolonged recession with high
unemployment could be threatening the EV
market as a whole and TSLA’s lofty valuation
TSLA
S&P 500

4. EV Adoption – TSLA vs NKLA
sources: HiddenLevers
• Euphoria in EV companies like NKLA has
fizzled in the last few weeks..
• But strong Chinese demand has given
rise to companies like NIO and Li Auto
who have had recent IPOs
TSLA
NKLA

5. EV Adoption - Concerns
sources: HiddenLevers, Morgan Stanley Research, InsideEVs.com
• Coming off the
April lows, oil
prices seem to
have stabilized
around $40
• If “life from
home” becomes
the norm we
could see a long
period of cheap
oil due to a drop
in demand

6. GOOD
S+P 500
2000
-40%
S+P 500
3600
+10%
S+P 500
3300
+2%
UGLY
“LIFE FROM HOME”
CAUSES NEW CAR
PURCHASES TO FALL
RISE IN EV POPULARITY NOT
YET ENOUGH TO KILL OFF OIL
USAGE WORLDWIDE
LOW OIL PRICES SLOW A
TRANSITION AWAY FROM
GAS-POWERED VEHICLES
EV Adoption: Updated Scenario Outcomes
EV Mkt Share
2%
EV Mkt Share
5%
EV Mkt Share
3%
Oil
$45
+10%
Oil
$40
FLAT
Oil
20
-50%
BASELINE
EV Sales
Accelerate
Gas Stays
Cheap
Life from
Home