1.
Inflation’s Next Peaks:
Prepare for the Future
By Stress-Testing Different Scenarios Featuring Mike Ashton, CFA
Weighing the Risks with Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™

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2
Inflations Next Peaks
GOOD
S+P 500
4485
+15%
Inflation falls to 3% or lower
by mid-year
Fed pivots as expected
GSCI
Commodities
Index TR
4025
+15%
Inflation Falls
More Than
Expected
10Y
3.00%
-40 bps
BASELINE
S+P 500
3900
FLAT
Soft economic landing
Inflation falls toward 4%
by mid-year
GSCI
Commodities
Index TR
3765
+7.5%
10Y
3.75%
+35 bps
UGLY
S+P 500
3120
-20%
Inflation higher than expected
Recession
GSCI
Commodities
Index TR
3500
FLAT
10Y
4.50%
+110 bps
Inflation Falls;
Soft Economic
Landing
Inflation Remains
High; Hard
Landing

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Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence
does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance
of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the
information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or
suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

4.
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