Electrical Vehicle Market, Battery, and Raw Material Insights
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Electrical Vehicle Market, Battery, and Raw Material Insights
- 1. ElectricalVehicle –All you need to know By: PaulYoung, CPA, CGA Date: June 11, 2020
- 2. PaulYoung - Bio • CPA, CGA • Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2) • SME – Risk Management • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – EmergingTechnology • SME – FinancialSolutions • SME – Supply Chain Management • SME – Planning and Forecasting Contact information: Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com
- 3. Agenda Environmental Impact Electrical Car Market Size Electrical Car Raw Materials Electrical Car Battery Market Lithium Vanadium Canada Lithium and Vanadium Development Plug-in Stations Manufacturers of Electrical Cars Scandinavia / Norway CO2 impact of Electrical Vehicle Blog – Electrical Vehicle Subsidies Electrical Vehicle Fire Illinois Registration California and Canada USA Electrical Vehicles Comments
- 4. Introduction It is very important to look at different ways to control air pollution. Not enough is said about toxicity when it comes to mining, refining, fabricating, installing and recycling of lithium and vanadium batteries There are issues with supporting plug-in stations Tax incentives to electrical cars is an issue, especially as people cry for money for healthcare, education and welfare.
- 5. Environment Child Labor issues Profitability issues Battery production / emissions Cobalt (Hazardous material) Plug-in station requires fuel source (power generation) Source - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/the-dirty-secret-of-electric-vehicles/ , https://www.plant.ca/sustainability/electric-vehicle-options-grow-but-profitability-challenges-are-limiting-190087/m https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/05/20/are-electric-vehicles-really-better-for-the- environment/#576dabf276d2 , https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cobalt-battery-evs-shortage https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/emerging-technologies/article/22024869/without-engines-electric- cars-might-be-sputtering-out , https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/june-22-is-your-wi-fi-watching-you-dog-s- manipulative-eyebrows-darwin-s-finches-in-danger-and-more-1.5182752/do-electric-cars-take-more-co2-to-build- than-they-save-1.5182753
- 6. ElectricalCar Market Source: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/05/electric-car-sales-increased-42-globally-q1-2016/or https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/13/electric-car-sales-set-to-pass-2m-landmark-globally-by-end-of-2016
- 8. Startup – Electrical Vehicle Over a 100 years ago is when we started to see Car manufacturing of the combustion engine. It is now 2019 as such the startups in electrical vehicle market continue to happen each day.The problem with startups in the electrical car field is they lack economy of scale https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/startups- old-line-automakers-aim-to-take-bite-out-of-tesla-222782/
- 9. ElectricalCar Raw Material Source - http://www.madehow.com/Volume- 5/Electric-Automobile.html
- 10. AnatomyofElectrical Car Metals – Steel, aluminum, nickel, copper, Rare Earths, vanadium, lithium Rubber Plastics,
- 11. Electrical BatteryCost http://www.industryweek.com/energy/electric-cars-soon-will-cost-less-gasoline-autos-research- shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IWNews+%28IndustryWeek+Most+Recent+News%29&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1_b&NL=IW-07 Now research from Bloomberg New Energy Finance indicates that falling battery costs will mean electric vehicles will also be cheaper to buy in the U.S. and Europe as soon as 2025. Batteries currently account for about half the cost of EVs, and their prices will fall by about 77% between 2016 and 2030, the London-based researcher said. “On an upfront basis, these things will start to get cheaper and people will start to adopt them more as price parity gets closer,” said Colin McKerracher, analyst at the London-based researcher. “After that it gets even more compelling.”
- 12. Cost Competitivene ss Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/sales-and-marketing/after-years-of-promise-battery-cars-about-to-go-mainstream-228289/ GENEVA—For years, there have been lots of electric cars proudly rolled out at auto shows but few on the streets or at dealers.That could be about to change. The electric cars under the lights at the Geneva International Motor Show promise to be the leading edge of more affordable, longer-range vehicles that start to move battery cars out of their niche—as a product for environmentalists willing to put up with limited range and wealthy enthusiasts of new technology willing to pay for buzz and the robust but silent acceleration the cars offer. Several broad underlying trends are converging to increase the likelihood that larger numbers of battery cars will be on the roads in the next several years. Prices are falling for batteries, consumers are turning away from diesel engines afterVolkswagen’s emissions scandal, and governments in Europe andChina are enforcing tougher emissions rules. As more electric cars roll off assembly lines, the trick will be getting more people to buy them. A key factor will be price—of the battery to the manufacturer, and consequently of the car to the customer. VolvoCar Group’s Polestar 2 and Peugeot’s new electric 208 compact are electric offerings aimed at bringing battery-powered cars within reach of more people.The Polestar 2 launch version, expected in 2020, starts at US$55,500 after the $7,500 U.S. tax incentive; the Europe price starts at 59,000 euros.A less expensive model is envisioned after the first year. Polestar says the model is aimed at the same potential customers as the Model 3 electric compact from California carmakerTesla. Tesla said last week it will close its stores and move to online sales only so it can cut costs and reach its goal of selling the Model 3 for $35,000. Before the announcement the lowest price was $42,900. Electrical subsidies cost the USA treasury about 1.5B per year.
- 14. Lithium Mining Australia Chile Argentina China Zimbabwe Portugal Brazil United States Source - http://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/lithium-investing/top-lithium-producing-countries/
- 15. Vanadium Mining China South Africa Russia Brazil Source - http://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/industrial-metals- investing/vanadium-investing/top-vanadium-producing-countries-china-south- africa-russia/
- 16. LithiumSupply Source - http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Could-A-Lithium-Shortage-De-Rail-The- Electric-Car-Boom.html Indeed, says Nevada Energy Metals (SSMLF:US) executive Malcolm Bell, “It may be time to start worrying about a shortage, but it’s not a question of whether we have enough lithium—it’s a question of tapping into new reserves. Those who don’t see the supply wall looming, will hit with a resounding thud. Those who start tapping into new reserves will be extremely well-positioned for the future.” From where everyone is standing right now, it may seem that the world’s got a fair amount of lithium. According to global estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey, there is enough lithium in the world – 13.5 million metric tons of it – to last us over 350 years in batteries.
- 17. Canada Lithium Vanadium So far, so rosy. But plans to mine elements such as lithium have been around for decades in the NorthwestTerritories, without much progress. Nor are lithium mines suddenly guaranteed winners with the advent of electric cars. In late 2014, despite being labelled the "only significant lithium producer in North America," a new lithium mine in Quebec abruptly closed after hitting a range of problems. Among those issues was a delay processing the lithium — and this is where Daniela Desormeaux, a Chile-based lithium expert, voices concern for N.W.T. startups. Source - http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-10-12/Critical- Elements-Corp-Putting-Canada-on-the-map-of-Lithium- Producers.html or http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/tesla- batteries-lithium-cobalt-nwt-mining-1.3536796 Canada hosts vanadium deposits in locations such as Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.Total reserves are unknown at this time, but plenty of companies are working in the country to develop projects. Source - http://investingnews.com/daily/resource- investing/industrial-metals-investing/vanadium- investing/vanadium-mining-in-canada/
- 18. Raw Material Supply http://www.livemint.com/Industry/2B1nhG2ijJfvYaUxW913zM/Lithium-supply-may-be-key-to-governments-electric-vehicles.html • Lithium Reserves are limited • Lithium batters are used in cell phones and energy storage
- 19. Rare Metals /Child Labor Source - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cobalt- children-mining-democratic-republic- congo-cbs-news-investigation/
- 20. China China is becoming the largest car market (Bigger than in USA) China has emphasized mass transit (Buses andTrains) China is becoming more and more urbanized. Source - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/11/oil-demand-is-dying-faster-than-expected-from-electric-cars-and- buses.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29 By the end of 2018, electric cars and buses will displace 279,000 barrels a day. At the end of 2018, there are about 5 million electric cars. Germany had a drop in diesel demand of 9% so far in 2018. China is calling for the production of 2 million electric vehicles (EVs) a year by 2020, and 7 million a year by 2025. By 2025, electric vehicles would be 20% of total new car production for China. • Almost 50% of the refined product is gasoline • OPEC is looking at cutting back production due to lower demand • More and more cities are going to electrical and/or hybrid transportation equipment
- 21. China Bolivia and China – Lithium - https://www.reuters.com/article/us- bolivia-lithium-china/bolivia-picks-chinese-partner-for-2-3-billion- lithium-projects-idUSKCN1PV2F7 Argentina and China Lithium - https://www.mining- technology.com/news/ganfeng-stake-argentina-lithium-project/ China dominates in areas of renewals - https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent- reports/2020/05/11/china-dominates-worlds-supply-chains China and Chile - https://blog.investchile.gob.cl/chiles-trade-with- china-grows China / Global Power - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/china-path-to-global- domination
- 22. Ford Motor Company http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?287289-Theoretical-Breakthrough-in-Carbon-Fiber-Production!/page3 or http://www.thedrive.com/sheetmetal/10393/ford-says-brands-first-all- electric-vehicle-will-be-affordable-have-better-range-than-tesla-model-3 Ford is planning to make this their first affordable, mass- produced electric car, which would essentially be Ford’s response toTesla working towards the Model 3, just a different form factor. Ford claims that its technology has the perceived capability of reaching a range of 300 miles on a single charge, which rivals the Model S and outperforms the Chevy Bolt by nearly 65 miles. As for hybrids, it is expected to eclipse the Ford Focus Electric battery-only range threefold, and do nearly the same with the Nissan Leaf.
- 23. New Pickup http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/environment-and-safety/canadian- designed-electric-pickup-truck-makes-debut-at-toronto-trade-show-194046/ Capable of travelling 300 km on a single charge, this truck features a dual-motor, a fully-electric powertrain, all-wheel drive, a carbon fibre reinforced steel space frame and a high- current power socket for tools. The company says the Bison’s off-road capabilities allow for 54 per cent hill start and 21 per cent hill climb at full load.
- 26. Buses Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/procurement/ontario- begins-first-of-its-kind-40m-electric-bus-tests-211692/ The trials are part of a national coordinated effort to advance zero emissions transit technology. The project combines manufacturers, transit agencies, utilities, funding partners, research teams and technology developers to ensure a world-leading demonstration trial with TransLink in Vancouver, B.C., and now with Brampton Transit and the Regional Municipality of York, with Brampton Transit the first to initiate and champion the national trial planning process back in 2016.
- 27. Canada Startup Source - http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadian-electric-car-maker- inks-manufacturing-deal-chinese-firm-202378/ VANCOUVER—Vancouver’s Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp. announced Oct. 2 it has signed a manufacturing agreement with Zongshen Industrial Group Co., Ltd.—a motorcycle manufacturer based in Chongqing, China—to produce 75,000 of its SOLO electric vehicles over the next three years. This uniquely shaped single-seater car is powered by a 16.1 kilowatt hour lithium-ion battery, has a range of 160 km and a top speed of 130 km/h. The manufacturing agreement with Zongshen calls for the production of 5,000 SOLOs in 2018; 20,000 in 2019; and 50,000 in 2020. The company started taking orders for the SOLO in 2016, and Electra Meccanica says it has so far amassed orders for over 20,000 units. “We are thrilled that Zongshen has joined us in leading the clean energy charge and partnered with us in the production of our innovative, new SOLO,” said Jerry Kroll, CEO, Electra Meccanica. “We have thousands of orders on the books and we now have the manufacturing capacity to begin filling these orders for our customers.” The SOLO’s anticipated manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) comes in at a modest $19,888, and the company is currently taking refundable $250 reservations on its website. New deliveries are currently scheduled to be fulfilled in Q4 2018.
- 28. End of Rebates Source - https://canada.autonews.com/retail/nissan-leaf-sales-collapse-ontario-after-incentive-axed • About 1.8% of all USA vehicle sales are electric • About 2% of all Cdn vehicle sales are electric
- 29. BCGovt/ Rebates AG for Ontario said these tax incentives did nothing for electrical vehicles. So, why is BC going the same approach? @jjhorgan @Swiftie01 https://www.canadianmanufactu ring.com/financing/b-c-budget- includes-child-fund-climate- plan-indigenous-revenue- sharing-227260/
- 30. Federal Government Rebates Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/electric-car-sales-climb-in-wake-of-new-5000-federal-rebate-program-237027/ Automotive sales have been impacted by COVID19
- 31. Plug-in Stations Ontario – source - https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/07/13/ontario- plugs-electric-car-plan-with-expanded-charging-network.html Electrical boom drive need for plug-in stations – source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/electric-car-charging-station- congestion-1.3518353 Market trends – Plug-in Stations - http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102160_top-six-trends- in-plug-in-electric-cars-through-2020 MFG plug-in stations - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ontario- charging-station-manufacturing-plant-jolt-canadas-electric-car- industry-210535/
- 32. Issues with Plug-in Stations Source - https://www.fleetcarma.com/obstacles-seamless-ev-charging-2017/ Since North American cities continue growing rapidly, any plan to boost electric car adoption must include accessible charging stations for the public. By “accessible,” we mean free to access (without parking lot fees) and easy to find (as you would a gas station). To overcome this challenge, major cities have started cooperating with charging station providers and other stakeholders. • Who is going to fund these stations • Who is going to pay for these stations • How long does it take for the battery to recharge • How will both battery and charging stations handle temperature changes • What impact will plug-in stations have the grid Effectiveness/Ontario 55% of the plug-in stations were in DTToronto and the GTA and not along major highway systems - https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ont-electric- car-charging-program-was-screw-up-ev-drivers
- 33. Membrane less flow battery could allow electric car refueling by replacing electrolyzer https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/06/membraneless-flow-battery-could- allow-electric-car-refueling-by-replacing- electrolyzer.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campai gn=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29 A technology developed by Purdue researchers could provide an “instantly rechargeable” method that is safe, affordable and environmentally friendly for recharging electric and hybrid vehicle batteries through a quick and easy process similar to refueling a car at a gas station. The innovation could expedite the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles by eliminating the time needed to stop and re- charge a conventional electric car’s battery and dramatically reducing the need for new infrastructure to support re- charging stations.
- 34. Scandinavia/ Norway Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/in-a-first-electric-cars-outsell-traditional-ones-in- norway-230094/ • 95% of Norway power generation is from hydro electric • 12% of Norway GDP is tied to energy production https://theodora.com/wf bcurrent/norway/norway _economy.html • Norway is looking at building major highway (i.e. asphalt, steel, cement, minerals, etc. https://drivemag.com/ne ws/norway-will-spend- 47bn-to-create-1-100- km-long-coastal- highway
- 35. CO2 and Electrical Vehicles https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate- diesel-cars?fbclid=IwAR1ENk4M-LsGv8rQcP6qBTZOnYqr58dcatNApRBoeX5TbLdEGPqYT0eRQEI “According to the study directed by Christoph Buchal of the University of Cologne, published by the Ifo Institute in Munich last week, electric vehicles have "significantly higher CO2 emissions than diesel cars."That is due to the significant amount of energy used in the mining and processing of lithium, cobalt, and manganese, which are critical raw materials for the production of electric car batteries.” https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electrical-vehicles-all-you-need-to-know-march-2019
- 36. Comments Carbon footprint with electrical cars has been reduced Subsidizing electrical purchases is not sound policy Cost Reliability of batteries when there is change in temperatures Plug in stations Require power source Required wiring to connect to a battery Access to plug-in stations Batteries require Lithium and/orVanadium Metals have to be extracted, refined and fabricated Aluminum lightweight Aluminum has to be extracted, refined and fabricated
- 37. Market Impact Source - https://phys.org/news/2019-03-electric-vehicles-failure.html
- 38. Blog – Electrical Subsidies https://www.680news.com/2019/05/01/federal-rebates-electric- car/?hootPostID=85c76447084c8ed5294ab5e3dac49eaf Why are we wasting precious tax dollars on electrical vehicle cars sales when they are less than 2% of the total car sales Same people that bitch about funding cuts to healthcare, education and other social programs say little about subsidies to clean technology, right? BTW: Clean technology companies lose nearly $4B / year - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/awash-in-red-ink-canadian-clean-tech- struggling-despite-ottawa-s-green-goals-1.729679.The old economy companies at least turn a profit which means they pay corporate taxes.You do not pay corporate tax when you have no taxable income, but losses - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-corporate-and-business- taxation-flows-to-government There has been issues with plug-in stations, right? Canada generates nearly 80% of its power from clean sources.This means 20% of the power comes from CO2. So, how are electrical cars really helping the environment - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/power- generation-canada-april-2019 (FYI only 6% of power generation comes from wind, solar, etc) Electrical cars include raw materials from countries using child labor and/or the raw materials are extremely toxic! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electrical-vehicles-all-you-need-to- know-april-2019
- 39. Registration “A proposed hike in Illinois’ annual registration fee for electric vehicles, from $17.50 to $1,000, is being called unfair by current EV owners, and a sales disincentive by manufacturers — just as the new technology is beginning to gain broader traction.” Electrical cars do not pay gas taxes. Gas taxes go to funding roads. Source - https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-electric- vehicle-fee-illinois-20190509- story.html?fbclid=IwAR3AiApriNLHdRP8PDHX8ZcwGds9b7z4Ejb- pZ1uIrvjKuOBiHN36ZEBqnQ
- 40. Fires and Electrical fires Firefighters in Montreal believe that a Hyundai Kona EV, the all- electric version of the Kona, exploded and caused a garage fire in Île- Bizard on Friday. Piero Cosentino bought a Hyundai Kona EV in March. He told CBC that the electric car was in his garage unplugged on Friday afternoon when he saw dark clouds of smoke coming from the garage.The Kona EV reportedly exploded – blowing the garage door off in the process. Firefighters were on the scene quickly and controlled the fire. No one was injured. Source - https://electrek.co/2019/07/27/hyundai-kona-ev-explodes- garage-blowing-door-off/ No one ever discuses the equipment and/or skills needed to deal with electrical car fires, why? https://jalopnik.com/fighting-an-electric- vehicle-fire-is-still-a-new-and-da-1833540519
- 41. Ontario and California – Electrical Vehicles Source - https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/why-the-canada- california-agreement-to-produce-clean-cars-might-get- messy?fbclid=IwAR21K3blUxPcR_UCvmTlATXHdYmhK1SSZKgIpZ6tenwg3t7CMrKqk hnknPE https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-manufacturing-canada- april-2019 1. Canada has become less competitive due to excessive regulations and taxes 2. Hydro rates are a big issue 3. Zero emissions have a carbon footprint 20% of the power generation in Canada is from non-clean sources - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-power-geneation- canada-march-2019
- 42. USA Electrical Vehicle Market Source - https://insideevs.com/news/403362/2019-plugin-car-sales-us/
- 43. OtherSources If you like to learn more about trade and/or other subjects as part of your professional learning and development then feel free to review my material on https://www.udemy.com/ (search PaulYoung CPA CGA
- 44. Summary Low adoption of electrical cars Lack of infrastructure (plug-in stations 1. 40% to 80% of the power generation is clean related. More electrical cars the more they have imprint on the environment Concerns with handling the toxicity of metals and the recycling of batteries Reliability Battery life (mileage) Government thinks subsidies will support the transition to electrical. The same policy did not work in Ontario People complain about cuts to social programs, but see no issue with subsidies to electrical car sales. Ontario government policies Electrical car sales are still only 2% despite Liberal government incentives A performance audit needs to be done on charging stations Liberals continue to mismanage moneys! Source https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/01/global-electric-car-sales-will-top-2-million-in-2018-and-china-will-top-1-5-million.html or https://canada.autonews.com/article/20180703/CANADA01/180709889/ontario-pcs-officially-kill-cap-and-trade-program-and-ev- incentives http://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ont-electric-car-charging-program-was-screw-up-ev-drivers#comments
Editor's Notes
- 1, https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
- Source - https://www.iea.org/commentaries/as-the-covid-19-crisis-hammers-the-auto-industry-electric-cars-remain-a-bright-spot