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Robust Design


      ME 470
      Systems Design
      Fall 2005
Why Bother?


               Customers will pay for
               increased quality!


              Customers will be loyal
              for increased quality!
Taguchi Case Study
 In 1980s, Ford outsourced the construction
 of a subassembly to several of its own
 plants and to a Japanese manufacturer.
 Both US and Japan plants produced parts
 that conformed to specification (zero
 defects)
 Warranty claims on US built products was
 far greater!!!
 The difference? Variation
 Japanese product was far more consistent!
Results from Less Variation

 Better performance
 Lower costs due to less scrap, less rework and
 less inventory!
 Lower warranty costs
Taguichi Loss Function

             Target                  Target




 Traditional Approach   Taguichi Definition
Taguichi’s Loss Function

Quality Level = total loss   All products suffer some
  incurred by society due to    loss
  the failure of the product The smaller the loss the
  to deliver the expected       better
  performance + harmful      Emphasis shifts from being
  side effects (including       within a range to
  operating cost)               achieving the target
                                value
L( y) = k ( y − m)           2
                                    (12.7)


L(y) is the quality lost (often measured in$)
y is value of the quality characteristic
m is the target value for y
k is the quality loss coefficient
Variations of the quadratic loss
function

 Nominal is best (Figure 12.6)
 Smaller the better (Figure 12.6)
 Larger the better (Figure 12.6)
 An asymmetric relationship (we won’t worry
 about this)
Noise


 Output variability               Input variability
  –   Variational noise is the    –   Tolerances are design
      short term, unit to unit        factor variability
      variation due to            –   Outer noise represents
      manufacturing processes         variations in disturbance
  –   Inner noise is the long-        factors such as
      term change in product          temperature, humidity,
      characteristics over time       dust, etc
Signal to noise ratio


 Attempts to control the variation with respect
 to both the mean and the variation about the
 mean.
 Appropriate S/N ratios are given in equation
 12.12, 12.13, and 12.14 for nominal is best,
 smaller is best, and larger is best. Be careful
 that you use the correct equation.
 The HIGHER the S/N ratio, the better!
Definition of Robust Design
Robustness is defined as a condition in which the product
  or process will be minimally affected by sources of
  variation.
A product can be robust:
  Against variation in raw materials
  Against variation in manufacturing conditions
  Against variation in manufacturing personnel
  Against variation in the end use environment
` Against variation in end-users
  Against wear-out or deterioration
Back to M&M’s®
The making of M&M's® Milk Chocolates begins with milk chocolate centers,
   which are formed in a machine and then quot;tumbledquot; in order to obtain a
   smooth, rounded center.
What follows is a process known as quot;panningquot;. Panning involves coating the
   chocolates by rotating them in a coating material in a revolving pan.
   Panning can be done using syrups and other materials such as chocolate,
   fats etc. The principle, briefly, is to coat the center with a layer of
   materials, which on evaporation leaves an even layer or shell of dry
   substance. The chocolate centers are color coated by rotating them in a
   revolving pan, while a sugar and corn syrup mixture is added. This
   process is repeated several times until M&M's® have a thin, smooth shell
   with the desired thickness.
Then, the machine specially designed for the purpose gently imprints an 'm'
   on the surface of the fragile, crispy, colorful shell without cracking the
   shell.
What are Sources of Noise?


 Output variability   Input variability
Parameter Design


 Taguchi recommends parameter design to get
 the best S/N ratio. If parameter design is not
 sufficient, then tolerance design may be used.
 Look for two types of design factors
  –   control factors affect the S/N ratio, but not the mean
  –   signal factors affect primarily the mean
 Taguchi creates a design parameter matrix and
 a noise matrix
Parameter Design


 The book has an excellent example in Section
 12.6.1
 If tolerance design is necessary, typically
 ANOVA is used to determine the relative
 contribution of each control parameter
 Some STATISTICIANS hate Taguchi!!
 But Taguchi is used by many companies!!
Design Resolution

 Full factorial vs. fractional factorial
 In our DOE experiment, we used a full factorial.
 This can become costly as the number of
 variables or levels increases.
 As a result, statisticians use fractional factorials.
 As you might suspect, you do not get as much
 information from a fractional factorial.
Fractional Factorials

A Fractional Factorial Design is a factorial design
  in which all possible treatment combinations of
  the factors are NOT run. The runs are just a
  FRACTION of the full factorial matrix. The
  resulting design matrix will not be able to
  estimate some of the effects, often the
  interaction effects. Minitab and your statistics
  textbook will tell you the form necessary for
  fractional factorials.
Design Resolution
 Resolution V (Best)
 –   Main effects are confounded with 4-way interactions
 –   2-way interactions are confounded with 3-way interactions
 Resolution IV
 –   Main effects are confounded with 3-way interactions
 –   2-way interactions are confounded with other 2-way
     interactions
 Resolution III (many Taguchi arrays)
 –   Main effects are confounded with 2-way interactions
 –   2-way interactions may be confounded with other 2-ways
Test Schedules Available in Text

 Figure 12. 9 (a) L9 experimental design for 4
 control factors, each at three levels.
 Figure 12.9 (b) L4 experimental design for 3
 factors each at 2 levels.
 Example 12.6 Three output temperatures,
 each at three levels. Use Figure 12.9 (a) and
 omit a column.
Procedure for Taguchi

 Determine Design Parameters (Inner array)
 Determine Noise factors (Outer array)
 Select the appropriate test matrix.
 Run the experiment
 Analyze the results
Taguchi Example of Robust Design
                                        Nerf Missilestorm
                                        Design Parameters
                                        –   fin arrangement,
                                        –   cavity size,
                                        –   lubrication
                                        Noise Factors
                                        –   skill of user
                                        Performance Characteristic
Example modified from                   –   firing distance
Product Design; Techniques in Reverse
Engineering and New Product
Development
Form the inner array or the
design parameter matrix
Design parameters                  (2 ) High         (1) Low
d1 is the fin arrangement       Angled fins           Straight
d2 is the lubrication         Graphite powder          None
d3 is the cavity size               0 cm                3 cm
Determine the Required Number of Experiments:
One degree of freedom is associated with the overall mean. Next we
add the degrees of freedom associated with each design parameter: (#
of levels of design parameters)*(# of design parameters).
For our case =3*(2-1) or 3. Therefore, we must run at least 1+3 tests.
Test schedules may be found in different texts. We will only use the
ones in our book or Minitab.
Test Matrix from 12.9 b

Experiment   1     2      3
    #
    1        1     1      1

    2        1     2      2

    3        2     1      2

    4        2     2      1
Design Parameter Matrix


Trial   d1   d2   d3   Randomized Order
1       1    1    1          3
2       1    2    2          2
3       2    1    2          4
4       2    2    1          1
Outer array, Noise Factor matrix


Since there is only one Noise Factor in this experiment,
we have a column matrix.
               n1
               1       Unskilled Operator
               2       Skilled Operator
We will have to conduct 8 experiments. Each experiment
will have to be conducted at both levels of the noise factor.
Results of Tests: Max Distance (m)


                 Noise     Noise
 Trial           low (1)   high(2)
 1               9.30      8.31
 2               9.83      10.11
 3               8.26      6.99
 4               8.23      9.19
Calculate S/N ratio for each row


Because we want to maximize distance, we use Equation 12.14.

                               1 1
             S / N = −10 * log( ∑ 2 )
                               n y   i


So for Trial 1,

                            1 1     1
          S / N = −10 * log( ( 2 +    2
                                        ))
                            2 9.3 8.31
Signal to Noise Ratios for Maximum
           Distance Tests


   Trial #         S/N
   1               18.85
   2               19.97
   3               17.55
   4               18.76
Analysis of Results


Calculate the average S/N for each factor at each of the three
test levels.
          Average      Average S/N
          of 1 & 2
Level                  d1      d2     d3
  1                   19.4    18.2    18.8
  2                    18.2 19.4      18.8

                                         Average of Trials
                                           ___ & ___
Firgure 1: Comparison of S/N Ratio's for each
                                   Design Parameter

                                19.4
                                                              19.4

               19.0
   S/N Ratio




                                           18.8                          d1
                                                              18.8       d2
                                                                         d3

                                           18.2               18.2
               18.0
                      0                1                  2          3
                                                  Level

Use Largest S/N –
Pick d1 at Level 1
Let’s Do It in Minitab

 >Stat>DOE>Taguchi>Create Taguchi Design

                                            Select
                                            Display
                                           Available
                                           Designs
Select the
L4 Design
Select
factors
Enter
Factor
Names
Minitab generates
runs that must be
   completed




      You must enter
     noise data directly
>Stat>DOE>Taguchi>Analyze Taguchi Design




                                                Select
                                               analysis



  Double Click on
 Unskilled Operator
and Skilled Operator
Always check Options!!!! Minitab will
assume a default value which may cause you
to miss 10 points on the final.
Main Effects Plot (data means) for SN ratios
                               Fin Arrangement                  Lubrication
                    19.6

                    19.2

                    18.8
Mean of SN ratios




                    18.4

                    18.0
                           1                     2         1                  2
                                 Cavity Size
                    19.6

                    19.2

                    18.8

                    18.4

                    18.0
                           1                     2
Signal-to-noise: Larger is better
Response Table for Signal to Noise Ratios
Larger is better

                                  Cavity
Level Fin Arrangement Lubrication Size
1         19.41         18.20      18.81
2         18.16         19.37      18.76
Delta       1.25         1.16       0.04
Rank          1           2           3
Homework: Due Monday, October 30


 Individual Assignment
 12.9 from Dieter by hand
 Modified 12.11 must be done using Minitab

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DS-004-Robust Design

  • 1. Robust Design ME 470 Systems Design Fall 2005
  • 2. Why Bother? Customers will pay for increased quality! Customers will be loyal for increased quality!
  • 3. Taguchi Case Study In 1980s, Ford outsourced the construction of a subassembly to several of its own plants and to a Japanese manufacturer. Both US and Japan plants produced parts that conformed to specification (zero defects) Warranty claims on US built products was far greater!!! The difference? Variation Japanese product was far more consistent!
  • 4. Results from Less Variation Better performance Lower costs due to less scrap, less rework and less inventory! Lower warranty costs
  • 5. Taguichi Loss Function Target Target Traditional Approach Taguichi Definition
  • 6. Taguichi’s Loss Function Quality Level = total loss All products suffer some incurred by society due to loss the failure of the product The smaller the loss the to deliver the expected better performance + harmful Emphasis shifts from being side effects (including within a range to operating cost) achieving the target value
  • 7. L( y) = k ( y − m) 2 (12.7) L(y) is the quality lost (often measured in$) y is value of the quality characteristic m is the target value for y k is the quality loss coefficient
  • 8. Variations of the quadratic loss function Nominal is best (Figure 12.6) Smaller the better (Figure 12.6) Larger the better (Figure 12.6) An asymmetric relationship (we won’t worry about this)
  • 9. Noise Output variability Input variability – Variational noise is the – Tolerances are design short term, unit to unit factor variability variation due to – Outer noise represents manufacturing processes variations in disturbance – Inner noise is the long- factors such as term change in product temperature, humidity, characteristics over time dust, etc
  • 10. Signal to noise ratio Attempts to control the variation with respect to both the mean and the variation about the mean. Appropriate S/N ratios are given in equation 12.12, 12.13, and 12.14 for nominal is best, smaller is best, and larger is best. Be careful that you use the correct equation. The HIGHER the S/N ratio, the better!
  • 11. Definition of Robust Design Robustness is defined as a condition in which the product or process will be minimally affected by sources of variation. A product can be robust: Against variation in raw materials Against variation in manufacturing conditions Against variation in manufacturing personnel Against variation in the end use environment ` Against variation in end-users Against wear-out or deterioration
  • 12. Back to M&M’s® The making of M&M's® Milk Chocolates begins with milk chocolate centers, which are formed in a machine and then quot;tumbledquot; in order to obtain a smooth, rounded center. What follows is a process known as quot;panningquot;. Panning involves coating the chocolates by rotating them in a coating material in a revolving pan. Panning can be done using syrups and other materials such as chocolate, fats etc. The principle, briefly, is to coat the center with a layer of materials, which on evaporation leaves an even layer or shell of dry substance. The chocolate centers are color coated by rotating them in a revolving pan, while a sugar and corn syrup mixture is added. This process is repeated several times until M&M's® have a thin, smooth shell with the desired thickness. Then, the machine specially designed for the purpose gently imprints an 'm' on the surface of the fragile, crispy, colorful shell without cracking the shell.
  • 13. What are Sources of Noise? Output variability Input variability
  • 14. Parameter Design Taguchi recommends parameter design to get the best S/N ratio. If parameter design is not sufficient, then tolerance design may be used. Look for two types of design factors – control factors affect the S/N ratio, but not the mean – signal factors affect primarily the mean Taguchi creates a design parameter matrix and a noise matrix
  • 15. Parameter Design The book has an excellent example in Section 12.6.1 If tolerance design is necessary, typically ANOVA is used to determine the relative contribution of each control parameter Some STATISTICIANS hate Taguchi!! But Taguchi is used by many companies!!
  • 16. Design Resolution Full factorial vs. fractional factorial In our DOE experiment, we used a full factorial. This can become costly as the number of variables or levels increases. As a result, statisticians use fractional factorials. As you might suspect, you do not get as much information from a fractional factorial.
  • 17. Fractional Factorials A Fractional Factorial Design is a factorial design in which all possible treatment combinations of the factors are NOT run. The runs are just a FRACTION of the full factorial matrix. The resulting design matrix will not be able to estimate some of the effects, often the interaction effects. Minitab and your statistics textbook will tell you the form necessary for fractional factorials.
  • 18. Design Resolution Resolution V (Best) – Main effects are confounded with 4-way interactions – 2-way interactions are confounded with 3-way interactions Resolution IV – Main effects are confounded with 3-way interactions – 2-way interactions are confounded with other 2-way interactions Resolution III (many Taguchi arrays) – Main effects are confounded with 2-way interactions – 2-way interactions may be confounded with other 2-ways
  • 19. Test Schedules Available in Text Figure 12. 9 (a) L9 experimental design for 4 control factors, each at three levels. Figure 12.9 (b) L4 experimental design for 3 factors each at 2 levels. Example 12.6 Three output temperatures, each at three levels. Use Figure 12.9 (a) and omit a column.
  • 20. Procedure for Taguchi Determine Design Parameters (Inner array) Determine Noise factors (Outer array) Select the appropriate test matrix. Run the experiment Analyze the results
  • 21. Taguchi Example of Robust Design Nerf Missilestorm Design Parameters – fin arrangement, – cavity size, – lubrication Noise Factors – skill of user Performance Characteristic Example modified from – firing distance Product Design; Techniques in Reverse Engineering and New Product Development
  • 22. Form the inner array or the design parameter matrix Design parameters (2 ) High (1) Low d1 is the fin arrangement Angled fins Straight d2 is the lubrication Graphite powder None d3 is the cavity size 0 cm 3 cm Determine the Required Number of Experiments: One degree of freedom is associated with the overall mean. Next we add the degrees of freedom associated with each design parameter: (# of levels of design parameters)*(# of design parameters). For our case =3*(2-1) or 3. Therefore, we must run at least 1+3 tests. Test schedules may be found in different texts. We will only use the ones in our book or Minitab.
  • 23. Test Matrix from 12.9 b Experiment 1 2 3 # 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 4 2 2 1
  • 24. Design Parameter Matrix Trial d1 d2 d3 Randomized Order 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 4 4 2 2 1 1
  • 25. Outer array, Noise Factor matrix Since there is only one Noise Factor in this experiment, we have a column matrix. n1 1 Unskilled Operator 2 Skilled Operator We will have to conduct 8 experiments. Each experiment will have to be conducted at both levels of the noise factor.
  • 26. Results of Tests: Max Distance (m) Noise Noise Trial low (1) high(2) 1 9.30 8.31 2 9.83 10.11 3 8.26 6.99 4 8.23 9.19
  • 27. Calculate S/N ratio for each row Because we want to maximize distance, we use Equation 12.14. 1 1 S / N = −10 * log( ∑ 2 ) n y i So for Trial 1, 1 1 1 S / N = −10 * log( ( 2 + 2 )) 2 9.3 8.31
  • 28. Signal to Noise Ratios for Maximum Distance Tests Trial # S/N 1 18.85 2 19.97 3 17.55 4 18.76
  • 29. Analysis of Results Calculate the average S/N for each factor at each of the three test levels. Average Average S/N of 1 & 2 Level d1 d2 d3 1 19.4 18.2 18.8 2 18.2 19.4 18.8 Average of Trials ___ & ___
  • 30. Firgure 1: Comparison of S/N Ratio's for each Design Parameter 19.4 19.4 19.0 S/N Ratio 18.8 d1 18.8 d2 d3 18.2 18.2 18.0 0 1 2 3 Level Use Largest S/N – Pick d1 at Level 1
  • 31. Let’s Do It in Minitab >Stat>DOE>Taguchi>Create Taguchi Design Select Display Available Designs
  • 35. Minitab generates runs that must be completed You must enter noise data directly
  • 36.
  • 37. >Stat>DOE>Taguchi>Analyze Taguchi Design Select analysis Double Click on Unskilled Operator and Skilled Operator
  • 38.
  • 39. Always check Options!!!! Minitab will assume a default value which may cause you to miss 10 points on the final.
  • 40. Main Effects Plot (data means) for SN ratios Fin Arrangement Lubrication 19.6 19.2 18.8 Mean of SN ratios 18.4 18.0 1 2 1 2 Cavity Size 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.0 1 2 Signal-to-noise: Larger is better
  • 41. Response Table for Signal to Noise Ratios Larger is better Cavity Level Fin Arrangement Lubrication Size 1 19.41 18.20 18.81 2 18.16 19.37 18.76 Delta 1.25 1.16 0.04 Rank 1 2 3
  • 42. Homework: Due Monday, October 30 Individual Assignment 12.9 from Dieter by hand Modified 12.11 must be done using Minitab