SI 5242 Ekonomi Transportasi Prodi T Sipil ITB Harun A LUBIS

1. ( Lecture 01: Introduction )
Harun al-Rasyid Lubis /FTSL-ITB

2. Harun
al-­‐Rasyid
Lubis
Transporta4on
Research
Group,
FTSL
-­‐
ITB
2

3. Goals:
• Economic efficiency
• Social efficiency (equity)
• Safety
• Environment friendly
• Less energy
3

4. 4

5. Infrastructure for all …. ?
5

6. 6

7. 7

8. 8

9. } Input
} Output
} Benefit
} Impact
} Multiplier effect /
growth
Kawasan Ekonomi khusus (SEZ) 9

10. The financing & investment paradox
Consumers
Taxpayers
Who Pays How Financed
User Tariffs
Govt. Subsidies
Public or Private
Debt
How to make it socially (economically)
feasible and financially viable ? 10

11. } Regulation obstacle
} Bad project preparation ( + risk
mitigation
} Government support not clear
} Financial problem
11

12. 1. Structural (long term)
◦ Regional disparities
◦ High cost economy
◦ Intermodal negative externalities
2. Managerial & leadership
3. Planning process & Decision Making
(medium term)
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13. 13

14. 14

15. 15

16. 16

17. 17

18. 18

19. 19

20. Koridor Utama dan Sub Koridor Utama Program Pendulum
3. PENDULUM NUSANTARA (Tol Laut)
2. SISLOGNAS
Tatanan Pelabuhan Penting dan Jalur Utama Pelayaran
Domestik
1. ASIAN HIGHWAY
4. RIPNAS (2025)
Tinjauan Rencana Konektivitas di P Sumatera
20

21. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EU-27 USA Japan Indonesia China Rusia
Road Rail Inland Waterway Oil Pipeline Sea
21

22. addressed.
Figure 1 Economic density is dominant in Java
Source: The World Bank, World Development Report 2009
22

23. JAKARTA
46 Triliun
Rupiah
JABODETABEK
70 Triliun Rupiah
BANDUNG
RAYA
17 Triliun Rupiah
BANDUNG
5 Triliun
Rupiah
Biaya Kemacetan
Jakarta – Bandung Rp 100 triliun / tahun
Jakarta – Surabaya Rp 250 triliun / tahun
JAKARTA-
BANDUNG
(INTERCITY)
15 Triliun
Rupiah
23

24. 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jlh konflik Luasan
(ha)
Konflik Agraria Vs. Sektor Pembangunan
( Sumber: Komite Pembaruan Agraria, 2014)
24
TANTANGAN

25. 25
86.0
114.2
145.5 155.9 177.9
256.3
317.1
387.3
1.55
2.07
1.92 1.97 2.08
3.2 3.30
3.47
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
Rp (trilun) %GDP
2010 2011 1012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017
National budget
(40%), $ 186
sub-
national
(10%), $ 47
SOE's fund
(20%), $ 93
Private (30%), $
140
RPJMN (2015-2019) Infrastructure Fund Needs
465.7 billions USD or 5,519 trillions IDR

26. APBN
2015
APBN
2016
APBN
2017
Total
(2015-20
17)
Kebutuha
n
(2015-20
19)
Gap
Series1 256.3 317.1 387.3 960.7 1978.6 1017.9
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Rp(Triliun)
APBN Infrastruktur
2015-2019
26
State
budget
(12,5%),
525
SOE's fund
(30%), 1258
Private
Capital
(57,5%), 2414
Perpres 58/2017 (~2019)
245 proyek , Rp 4197 triliun
Terget porsi swasta terus membesar,
karena:
- Target pajak masih sulit dicapai
- Pemotongan anggaran
- BUMN (PMN) terbatas
State
budget
(41,3%), $
147.85
SOE's fund
(22,2%), $
79.34
Private
Capital
(36,5%), $
129.82
Revised* Infrastructure Fund Needs
(2015-2019)
353.4 billions USD or 4,796 trillions IDR
* June 2017

27. 1. Good Public & Corporate Governance
Rules to be applied :
1. Model good governance
2. Government less govern
3. Roles of private sect & Communtiy should be
increased in phasing ( gradually )
4. Formation of regulatory bodies
Government
Parliement
Private Sector
& SOEs
Communtiy / Civil Soceity
Profess . Assoc Universities NGO
Constitution
MPW
MoT
MoHousing, MoHealth
Regulatory Bodies
Prerequisite:
1. Clean government
2. Privates are capable
3. Industy and society are
professional / mature
2. Choosing Appropriate
Assessment Procedure
27
KERJASAMA PEMERINTAH-SWASTA (KPBU)

28. Pillar 1 Pillar 2
Ada 3 prasyarat agar investasi infrastruktur
dapat menghasilkan pertumbuhan ekonomi
yang berkualitas
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi berkualitas
Pillar 3
Rapuhnya salah satu dari 3
prasyarat tersebut akan
berdampak pada kualitas
pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti
terlihat pada slide berikut.
Kondisi
Politik,
kebijkan
dan
kelembagaa
n kondusif
Iklim
Investasi
dan
pendanaan
publik
tersedia
Kondisi
Perekonomian
wilayah
kondusif
28

29. Kondisi
Politik ,
kebijakan
dan
kelembagaa
n kondusif
Iklim
Investasi
dan
pendanaan
publik
tersedia
Pillar 2
Hanya terjadi
re-distribusi (straw-effect)
Pertumbuhan tidak terwujud (zero sum) ,
walaupun ada perubahan aksessibilitas
Pillar 3
Kondisi
Perekonomia
n wilayah
belum
kondusif
Ketimpangan ekonomi wilayah masih mencolok, belum terbentuk eksternalitas ekonomi
yang positif seperti belum adanya agglomerasi ekonomi, ekonomi lokal statis, tenaga
kerja terlatih dan enterpreunership masih langka.
Walaupun Iklim investasi, pendanaan serta kondisi politik dan kelembagaan sudah mendukung.
Investasi infrastruktur transportasi (konektivitas) terjadi,
namun……………
Perlu dilanjutkan dengan
pengembangan pasar dan
sentra produksi
29

30. TRANSPORT AND LAND-USE INTERACTION Part A: Integrated Modelling Methodology
costs will be increased, and if the demand for travel along a section of road
increases, then the travel time will rise due to congestion.
Prices Demand Times, cost Demand
Land uses
(activities)
Land, floorspace
Travel, freight
Transport systems
LandUse Transport
Demand for
transport
Accessibilties
Figure2-12. Themodelframework.
Pemiliha
n
Rute
Pemiliha
n
Moda
Pemiliha
n
Tujuan
Keputusan
Melakukan
Perjalanan
Kepemilika
n
Kendaraan
Aktifitas
Penempat
an Lahan
Pembangun
an
Pemilihan
Lahan
oleh
Investor
Pemilihan
Lahan
oleh
Pengguna
Daya
Tarik
Lahan
Aksesibilita
s
Waktu Tempuh/
Jarak/Biaya
Volume
di Ruas
Jalan
TRANSPORTASI
GUNA LAHAN
Land Use – Transport Interaction
30

31. Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
• Public Transport
Passenger
• Speed
• Vehicle Speed
• Traffic Flow
• Travel Time
• Volume / Capacity
Ratio
• Passenger.Km
• Passenger.Hour
• Etc.
4 Step Modelling
Land Use
Output
31

32. Generation 02: Typical Component of
Land Use – Transport Interaction Model
(Online model)
32

33. Land Use – Transport Interaction
33

34. The MARS model consists of several
sub-modules as follows
1. Scenario Input Module
2. Policy Input Module
3. Transport Model
a) Commuting trips sub-model
b) Other trips sub-model
4. Land Use Model
a) Housing development sub-model
b) Housing relocation sub-model
c) Workplace development and
relocation sub model
5. Fleet Composition and Emission
Module
6. Evaluation and Assessment Module
7. Output Representation Module
34

35. • Based on 3 steps in 4 step
modelling (trip generation,
trip distribution and modal
split)
• Included transport mode:
car, bus, rail, walking and
cycling
• Output : Average travel
speed, trip length
distribution, average cost,
number of trip per modes
• Able to model reinforcing
(R) and balancing (B) loop
Source: Pfaffenbichler et al. Land Use Transport Interaction Modelling 35

36. • Simulates new housing and
workplace developments in
different zone / decision to
invest new development
• Available land is used as
constraints
• Development investment is
influenced by accessibility
stemming from the
transport model
• The main output is the
population forecast and
workplace distribution
Source: Pfaffenbichler et al. Land Use Transport Interaction Modelling 36

37. Figure 3.1 The Structure of the Socioeconomic and Spacial Impact Model
European developments
GDP
Employment Labour forceSocio-economic
indicators
Cohesion
indicators
Accessibility Population
European
GDP
Regional
endowment Regional
accessibility
Regional
education
Regional
labour
productivity
Transfer
policies
Trans-
European
Networks
Regional
production
function
Regional
unemploy-
ment
Regional
per capita
income
Regional
migration
function
Regional
quality
of life
Regional
fertility
mortality
Regional
labour force
participation
Transport
policies
European
migration
Migration
policies
Regional
GDP per capita
by sector
Regional
population
by age, sex
education
Regional
labour force
by sex and
skill level
Regional
employment
by sector
GDP = gross domestic product
Source: Michael Wegener, SASI Model Description, Working Paper 08/01, August 2008, p. 7.
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39. THANK YOU ….
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