GMIC 2012 - Megatrends, Vision Mobile, Presentation by Mr Andreas Constantinou


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GMIC 2012 - Megatrends, Vision Mobile, Presentation by Mr Andreas Constantinou

  1. 1. how telecoms business is transforming in the software era Updated 4 May 2012how telecoms business is transforming in the software era Updated 4 May 2012 Copyright VisionMobile 2012 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  2. 2. VisionMobile Distilling market noise into market sense Research Workshops Market maps Strategy definition competitive analysis, mobile industry dynamics Competitive landscape maps strategy design, ecosystem commissioned research for telcos and OEMs positioning, product definition Developer Economics 2011: How developers and brands are making money in the mobile app economy Mobile Innovation Mobile Industry Atlas, 5th ed. Mobile Megatrends series Clash of Economics 1,700+ companies, 90 market sectors Following and analysing major ecosystems how Internet business models are trends in mobile mobile platforms and impacting telecoms and how to the battle for innovate in the age of software dominance HTML5 and its impact to the mobile industry Top-100 analyst blog 4,000+ subscribers The Android Game Plan 100 million club 20,000+ monthly uniques the commercial mechanics tracking successful businesses 90% mobile industry insiders behind Android and how in mobile Google runs the show3 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  3. 3. Trusted by industry brandsClients selected VisionMobile clients 2008-2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  4. 4. Mobile Megatrends 2012Handset DELL-ification Web as the new walled garden Cross-platform toolsand the emerging pyramid of handset OEM and why web is waiting for a new leader the next challenge to the Apple/Google duopolyThe Kindelization of Ecosystems battle across Accessories the next frontier fortablets how Kindle is setting the 4 screens Experience roaming drives platform differentiationrules of the tablet market user lock-in, cross-sales and engagementTools for gold seekers Reinventing the telco The future of voiceThe developer gold-rush has led to a gold rush for Unbundling the telco to compete in the From telephony to diversity of use casesdeveloper tools software era Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  5. 5. Handset DELL-ificationand the emerging pyramid of handset OEMs Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  6. 6. The complex picture of the mobile phone marketBut mobile phone market share doesn’t tell the full story Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  7. 7. Android became dominant smartphone OSSamsung and HTC benefited the most from Android success (Q4 2011) Smartphone market share by OEM and platform (H2 2011) Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  8. 8. Android turned the tables on handset makersSamsung and HTC benefited, Nokia, Motorola, Sony were challenged Beneficiaries: Under pressure: fast-moving challengers old guard OEMs Efficient cost structure plus ability to differentiate Cost structure requiring high-margins in software, hardware or both Commoditising effect of Android makes high- margins unattainable for OEM without own ecosystem or meaningful differentiation low cost assemblers Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach No Name source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  9. 9. Profits are monopolized by companieswith a tailored value-chain Commodity modular market Integrated from cloud to silicon Integrated across handset BoM Share of profits across top-8 handset vendors. Source: Asymco, VisionMobile estimates Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  10. 10. Tailored value chain leads to hyper growthHealthy profits allows to invest more in innovation, product development and marketing Estimates 2 players dominate smartphone shipments 10 OEMs with more than 2% market share Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  11. 11. DELL-ification and the new roles of OEMs The pyramid structure of OEMs in 2012Profit pyramid Revenue pyramid Innovators exceptional margins unique Role model: experiences meaningful Fast followers attractive margins differentiation Role model: low margins Assemblers compete on price only Role model: low margins Feature phones nearly 60% of sales Role model: compete on price only Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  12. 12. Redrawing the map of handset competition 2005 - 2012Profit pyramid Revenue pyramid exceptional margins unique experiences attractive margins meaningful differentiation low margins compete on price only 60% of sales low margins compete on price only Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  13. 13. HTML5: Web as the new walled gardenand why the web is waiting for a new leader Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  14. 14. HTML5 is pitched as the future of mobile apps21 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  15. 15. …but what is HTML5, really? A set of browser specs by 2 standard groups: W3C and WHAT WHAT WG - Web Hypertext Application Technologies The WHAT working group specs merge into W3C specs Brings capabilities of web apps closer to those of native apps UI tools, off-line storage, 2D graphics, plugin-free video/audio geo location, speed and communication Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  16. 16. Many benefactors, but no clear leader all pushing and hyping HTML5 for their own unrelated reasons Apple looking to move the web away from Flash Google searching for more ways to commoditize complements Facebook aiming to break-down Apple/Google silos and distance Adobe Microsoft to onboard web developers onto Windows 8 Mobile operators hoping to regain control lost to native platforms Qualcomm aiming to create a competitive advantage for its chips Brands looking use web as a low-cost way to go cross-device and cross-screen Adobe aiming to sell tools that facilitate web-to-native hybrid apps23 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  17. 17. But HTML5 is just past the peak of expectations Fragmentation across platforms (iOS, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Phone) Challenged to compete with native user experience Lack of distribution channels and monetisation for web apps24 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  18. 18. HTML5 is fragmented across platforms HTML5 Test Score iOS 5.1 324 BlackBerry OS 7 273 Android 4.0 273 Bada 2.0 268 Android 3.2 235 Android 2.3 189 Amazon Silk 1.0 174 Windows Phone 7.5 (Mango) 138 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Source:, April 2012.25 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  19. 19. Andrew Betts of Assanka on It took a full-time team of 3 developers at Assanka 8 months to launch on iPad, and that team a further 4 months to bug-fix the iPad and ready for distribution to Android tables. October 2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  20. 20. HTML5 is a technology lacking key ingredients unable to compete with iOS and Android platforms Platform ingredients Software Developer Monetisation Distribution Retailing foundations ecosystem HTML5 ✔ = ✖ ✖ ✖ fragmented platform always a step behind native will depend on app store complex tool-chain waiting for a leader islands of developers Facebook? Google? Other ? using common language, but different API sets27 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  21. 21. Google & FB are building complete platforms
 adding missing ingredients on top of HTML5 enabling technologyKey Software Developeringredients Monetisation Distribution Retailing foundations ecosystem application runtime, Developers building micropayments, app distribution app discovery, developer tool-chain, and publishing apps ad networks to end users promotion, & platform APIs around the and settlement through SaaS or placement, search & software foundation devices recommendations HTML5 browsers Fragmented --- --- --- (fragmentation) HTML5 with web developers Google Checkout PC, Mac, Android, Chrome Chrome API Chrome OS Web Store HTML5 with Web and Flash FB Credits 900M Facebook FB app Facebook APIs developers users recommendations HTML5 may end up a yet another walled garden despite the promise of openness Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  22. 22. get in touch Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. @andreascon Andreas Constantinou | Managing Director | +44 2033 844 163 Updated: 12 November 2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2012 Copyright VisionMobile 2011