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Clare Penrose - No CCS, No 2 degrees. Japan Clean Coal Day 2014
1. NO CCS – NO 2°C
JAPANESE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
Clare Penrose, General Manager - Asia Pacific
JCOAL Clean Coal Day, Tokyo
9 September 2014
2. Fossil fuels will be important for a long time to come
Source: IEA (2013)
134 GW coal capacity added in 2013 – at least double that of any
other fuel. – IEA 2014
3. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy consumption
patterns
Primary energy demand by fuel source
(million tonnes of oil equivalent)
6%
6%
6%
Fossil fuels must be a part of the climate change solution.
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
1990 2010 2035
Fossil Fuels Renewables Nuclear
76%
81%
81%
13%
18%
13%
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2013).
- New Policies Scenario: assumes current climate change policy commitments and pledges by Government are fully implemented.
4. The climate change challenge
A 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes with
high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate
and plan for future adaptation needs.
World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim, November 2012
Renewable technologies are not the sole answer to mitigating the rise
in global temperature:
o decarbonising power without CCS would cost 40% more than
with CCS
o in many industrial processes, accounting for over 20% of CO2
emissions, there is no alternative to CCS.
5. CCS is a critical component of a sustainable energy
system
Source: IEA Energy Technology
Perspectives (2014)
Gt CO2 emissions
In a 2° scenario, CO2 captured in 2030 is in excess of 1,500 Mt and
6,300 Mt in 2050. So how are we tracking?
6. Large-scale CCS projects by project lifecycle and year
22 projects in operation or under construction – 8 more than in 2011.
7. CO2 capture capacity by actual or expected year of
operation
CCS is a reality with 40 Mtpa of CO2 potentially captured by active projects but a
broad portfolio of projects in the advanced stages of planning must progress if
momentum in the demonstration of CCS is to be accelerated.
8. Actual and expected operation dates for CCS
projects in ‘Operate’, ‘Execute’ and ‘Define’ stages
Great
Plains
Boundary
Dam
Illinois Industrial
Century Plant Coffeyville
Lost Cabin
Lula
In Salah*
Air Products
Enid
Fertilizer
Shute Creek
Snøhvit
Sleipner
Val Verde
Kemper
Sinopec Qilu
ACTL Agrium
TCEP
Petra
Nova
Abu Dhabi
FutureGen 2.0
Medicine
Bow
Sinopec
Shengli
Sargas
Texas
ROAD
Yanchang
Lake Charles
ACTL Sturgeon
Gorgon
Uthmaniyah
Quest
Don
Valley
HECA
PetroChina
Jilin
Spectra
White
Rose
Peterhead
2014 2015
2018 2019 2020
Coal feedstock
Other feedstock
Pre-2014
Power
generation
2016 2017
Coal-to-liquids
Chemical
production
Iron and steel
production
Syngas
Fertiliser
production
Oil refining
Natural gas
processing
Hydrogen
production
= 1Mtpa of CO2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity)
* Injection currently suspended
CCS projects that utilise coal as a feedstock are increasing in prominence.
9. Three large-scale CCS projects in the power sector
are under construction in North America
1. BOUNDARY DAM INTEGRATED CARBON CAPTURE &
SEQUESTRATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT
Location: Saskatchewan, Canada
CO2 captured: 1 Mtpa
Anticipated start date: 2014
2. KEMPER COUNTY ENERGY FACILITY
Location: Mississippi, United States
CO2 captured: 3.5 Mtpa
Anticipated start date: 2015
3. PETRA NOVA CARBON CAPTURE PROJECT
Location: Texas, United States
CO2 captured: 1.4 Mtpa
Anticipated start date: 2016
1
2
3
Japanese technology is supporting key CCS projects:
Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems (MHPS) is supplying the steam turbine for the SaskPower’s Boundary
Dam project. MHPS is also partnering with SaskPower to construct a carbon capture facility at their Shand
Power Station.
Chugai Technos is delivering the storage monitoring system for the Boundary Dam Aquistore project.
Petra Nova, a 50/50 joint venture between NRG Energy and JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration, will use a
carbon capture process developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kansai Electric Power Co
10. There are a number of ‘notable’ pilot and
demonstration projects in Japan
Name: TOMAKOMAI CCS
DEMONSTRATION PROJECT
Name: EAGLE PILOT PROJECT Name: OSAKI COOLGEN
Location: Hokkaido
Proponents: METI (execution by
Japan CCS Co. comprising 35
companies)
Objective: Demonstrate an overall
CCS system from capture to
storage as foundation for
commercialising CCS from 2020
Project Status: In construction
Location: Hiroshima
Proponents: J-POWER and
Chugoku Electric Power Co.
Objective: Testing to verify the
reliability, economic efficiency and
operability of an oxygen-blown
IGCC system
Project Status: In construction
Location: Fukuoka
Proponents: J-POWER, NEDO
and Hitachi
Objective: Research and
establish technologies for IGCC
oxygen-blown coal system
Project Status: Testing completed
Japanese industry is well positioned to benefit as these projects progress.
Detailed descriptions of these projects are provided at www.globalccsintitute.com.
11. Japan-Australia Collaboration
Joint venture between CS Energy,
ACALET, Glencore, Schlumberger Carbon
Services and Japanese participants –
J-POWER, Mitsui and IHI Corporation
Location: Callide A Power Station, Queensland, Australia
Objective: Demonstrate how oxyfuel carbon capture
technology can be applied to an existing coal-fired power
station to generate low-emission electricity.
In the period from December 2013 to May 2014, the power
station’s oxyfuel boiler recorded more than 6,000 hours of
industrial operation and the capture plant more than 3,000
hours of industrial operation.
AUGUST 2014:
Brown Coal Innovation Australia (BCIA)
announces AU$650,000 of funding for a
AU$5 million joint research project between
Australia’s CSIRO, AGL and IHI Corporation
to explore a lower-cost process to capture
CO2 from brown coal-fired power stations.
The syndicate will install and test a pilot
plant at AGL’s Loy Yang Power Station in
Victoria, Australia, that could use up to 40%
less energy to capture CO2 emissions for
storage.
12. No CCS – No 2°C
Wide adoption of CCS part of
the scenario that achieves 450
ppm atmospheric stabilization
level for CO2
World Energy Council
Importance of
CCS
acknowledged
Availability of CCS is critical
for producing 450 ppm
Energy Modeling Forum 27
Study
CCS is an important technology in
the long run…deployment to drive
down costs is desirable
UK Committee on Climate
Change
Commercial demonstration of CCS essential
for deployment in the 2030 timeframe
European Commission
CCS to be cost effective when
transformational technologies emerge
US Climate Action Report 2014
Many energy and
climate researchers
believe that CCS is vital
to avoiding a climate
catastrophe
Wired Magazine March
2013
We intend to promote the use
of low carbon technologies
(renewable energies, nuclear
in the countries which opt to
use it, and carbon capture and
storage)
G7 Energy Ministerial
Meeting, May 2014
13. The future of coal
Coal must remain a part of our energy
mix. At the same time, we have to
reduce carbon emissions from coal.
Dr Julio Friedmann
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Office of Clean Coal,
US Department of Energy
May 2014
Definition of IEA scenarios
“The ‘New Policies Scenario’ – the central scenario in WEO-2013 – analyses the
Evolution of energy markets based on the continuation of existing policies and
measures as well as cautious implementation of policies that have been announced
by governments but are yet to be given effect. The ‘Current Policies Scenario’ takes
account only of policies already enacted as of mid-2013. The 450 Scenario shows
what it takes to set the energy system on track to have a 50% chance of keeping to
2 degrees Celsius the long-term increase in average global temperature.”
In this slide we have used the IEA’s ‘New Policies Scenario’ as it is the Agency’s reference scenario. This scenario is broadly consistent with a 4 degree Celsius long-term increase in average global temperature.
If the ‘Current Policies Scenario’ were to be utilised in this slide, global energy demand would be 18,646 million tonnes of oil equivalent (around 7% higher than under the New Policies Scenario) and fossil fuels would constitute 80% of the energy demanded.
By comparison, annual carbon dioxide emissions for Norway are at 50-55 million tonnes
It is critical that a broad portfolio of projects currently in the advanced stages of planning move into construction over the coming 12 to 18 months in order to accelerate the momentum for CCS.
While Southern Company is using its own technology for its Kemper County Energy Facility, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Southern Company partnered for demonstration testing of CO2 capture and sequestration at Plant Barry, Alabama Power’s (subsidiary of Southern Company) pulverised-coal power plant.