Research Project (Spring 2019)
Due date for Project: Wednesday, June 12th (The day of Final Exam).
You must turn in the project as a hard copy. Do not send your project electronically.
Statistics is one of logical tools to observe and analyze our real world. Each research
carefully builds and conducts to reach their observational goals that describe phenomena
of our human lives. The information will be sent to us in many ways to help our everyday’s
decisions. Now you are studying Statistics, so let’s look around us and catch some interesting
and useful information that is based on Statistics or uses Statistics.
Making of Diary (not Writing Diary)
This project:
1. You need to search or look for any article or web-site that tells information which
uses statistical results. I expect you search on several news sources.
2. You need to state your own comments:
· Why do you think that information is interesting?
· How do you see that was concluded with the result of statistical research?
· What kind of statistical content or tool did a researcher use?
3. Collect at least 10 articles with the date.
· Copy and paste an article or note from the URL with the title.
(I want to read the articles that you recommend, so I can introduce them
to my future students.)
4. This project is your own diary and a diary should be secret. So please do not
copy and past from your class mate’s.
ModelLast-Minute Gifts ModelTo run a trial of 20 days, press the F9 keyDecision variablesMin. capacity/all steps/day1Max capacity/step/day Step 16Max capacity/step/day Step 26Max capacity/step/day Step 36Max capacity/step/day Step 46Max capacity/step/day Step 56Min. demand/day1Max. demand/day6Total demand & deliveryTotal holding costTotal slackCorrelation Holds-SlackTotal demand77Holds$/HoldHold$Slack-0.35Total shipped53Step 1161$1$161Step 10Total not shipped24Step 242$2$84Step 28% shipped68.83%Step 337$3$111Step 312% not shipped31.17%Step 450$5$250Step 44Step 541$7$287Step 516Total331$89340Day1234567891011121314151617181920Demand63536425454541154334Step 1Starts with0204588991211111011669101110Receives63536425454541154334Has65571112101413171516141271113131414Capacity45123415164636123245Moves45123415164636123245Holds2045889912111110116691011109Slack00000000000000000000Holding Cost$2$0$4$5$8$8$9$9$12$11$11$10$11$6$6$9$10$11$10$9Step 2Starts with00444531401135520000Receives45123415164636123245Has455679465657611643245Capacity41122632554416466545Moves41122632554416443245Holds04445314011355200000Slack00000000000000023300Holding Cost$0$8$8$8$10$6$2$8$0$2$2$6$10$10$4$0$0$0$0$0Step 3Starts with00000020111220125345Receives41122632554416443245Has411226526656365685810Capacity45263451553455315132Moves41122451553435315132Holds00000201112201253458Slack04141000000020000000Holding Cost$0$0$0$0$0$6$0$3$3$3$6$6$0$3$6$15$9$12$15$24Step 4Starts with01001104048645533320Receives41122451553435315132Has42123555591110710848452Capacity33212515115625515254Moves32112515115625515252Holds1001104048.
slides CapTechTalks Webinar May 2024 Alexander Perry.pptx
Research Project (Spring 2019)Due date for Project Wednes.docx
1. Research Project (Spring 2019)
Due date for Project: Wednesday, June 12th (The day of Final
Exam).
You must turn in the project as a hard copy. Do not send your
project electronically.
Statistics is one of logical tools to observe and analyze our real
world. Each research
carefully builds and conducts to reach their observational goals
that describe phenomena
of our human lives. The information will be sent to us in many
ways to help our everyday’s
decisions. Now you are studying Statistics, so let’s look around
us and catch some interesting
and useful information that is based on Statistics or uses
Statistics.
Making of Diary (not Writing Diary)
This project:
1. You need to search or look for any article or web-site that
tells information which
uses statistical results. I expect you search on several news
sources.
2. You need to state your own comments:
· Why do you think that information is interesting?
· How do you see that was concluded with the result of
2. statistical research?
· What kind of statistical content or tool did a researcher use?
3. Collect at least 10 articles with the date.
· Copy and paste an article or note from the URL with the title.
(I want to read the articles that you recommend, so I can
introduce them
to my future students.)
4. This project is your own diary and a diary should be secret.
So please do not
copy and past from your class mate’s.
ModelLast-Minute Gifts ModelTo run a trial of 20 days, press
the F9 keyDecision variablesMin. capacity/all steps/day1Max
capacity/step/day Step 16Max capacity/step/day Step 26Max
capacity/step/day Step 36Max capacity/step/day Step 46Max
capacity/step/day Step 56Min. demand/day1Max.
demand/day6Total demand & deliveryTotal holding costTotal
slackCorrelation Holds-SlackTotal
demand77Holds$/HoldHold$Slack-0.35Total shipped53Step
1161$1$161Step 10Total not shipped24Step 242$2$84Step 28%
shipped68.83%Step 337$3$111Step 312% not
shipped31.17%Step 450$5$250Step 44Step 541$7$287Step
516Total331$89340Day1234567891011121314151617181920De
mand63536425454541154334Step 1Starts
with0204588991211111011669101110Receives63536425454541
154334Has65571112101413171516141271113131414Capacity4
5123415164636123245Moves45123415164636123245Holds204
5889912111110116691011109Slack00000000000000000000Hol
ding
Cost$2$0$4$5$8$8$9$9$12$11$11$10$11$6$6$9$10$11$10$9S
tep 2Starts
with00444531401135520000Receives45123415164636123245H
7. Total SlackAverage:7.4112.9015.1419.5820.2975.32Min
slack34.00Max slack134.00St. dev. slack20.47
BA 302 Business Process Management — Simulation —
Homework
In this homework, you'll work with a simple, discrete simulation
model of a fictitious last-minute gift
business.
To successfully complete this homework, we strongly advise
that you follow the following procedure:
The homework is based on Microsoft Excel 2003, 2007 or 2010
(your
choice) running on Microsoft Windows.
For these spreadsheets to work you
MUST(!!) add-in the Analysis Toolpak (if installed you see a
Data Analysis option in the Analysis group of the Data option
on the main menu). If you do
not have the Analysis Toolpak added in and you do not know
how to add it in, go to Excel's Help (F1) and
type "Analysis Toolpak"
Although this homework will run on Microsoft's Mac
version of Excel, it is a little harder to make it work nicely.
Hence, we advise you
to run this homework on a Windows machine.
Carefully read the assignment and make sure that you
understand its logic.
Study the simulation model associated
with the problem. Make sure you understand what the
8. spreadsheet shows
and how you can use it before(!!) you use it to answer the
questions.
If reading the problem and studying
the spreadsheet causes you problems or if you lose track of
things,
first review your notes from class and see if your classmates can
help
you. If you remain stuck, see your instructor.
Assignment Background (adapted from Weida,
Richardson, Vazsonyi (2000) Operations Analysis Using
Microsoft Excel)
One of the costs of doing business is work-in-progress (WIP)
inventory; i.e., value-added work that is in progress but not yet
ready
to be sold. The value of this 'inventory,' often known as holding
cost
increases as it moves forward through the process chain, with
inventory
at the end worth more than at earlier steps; hence the term
'value add'. To compute
holding costs one typically multiplies the WIP quantity at each
process step by
its process-added value at that step. Holding cost is thus a
function of how
long the holding period is, the costs of storing and keeping
track of
the inventory, any finance costs incurred in borrowing the
money to pay for the inventory until it can be eventually sold
9. and the
expenses recovered, etc.
Before you go on, make sure you understand this concept of
holding
cost and the way in which these are computed.
Your simulation model simulates a five-step process employed
by the Last-Minute
Gifts company for preparing gift assortments for delivery to
holiday customers. Each gift that customers
order goes through these five steps in the following order:
Checking the order against available items in stock.
Selecting the right box and packing materials.
Retrieving the set of items from the warehouse stock.
Assembling the gift in the box.
Closing the box and completing the documentation for delivery
and sending the
completed invoice to order processing.
We will staff each step with its own server!
!!! Important !!! You should realize that this business is a
service business; it is NOT
manufacturing and hence, it
has no inventory(!!) other than the gifts that have not yet been
processed and are held overnight.
10. Let us assume that process capacity; i.e., the availability and
performance of the people working in the business is variable.
This could be
the case, for instance, if you would hire workers with various
skill levels off the street (not very realistic, but good enough for
this
exercise).
Let's also assume that both your capacity and the demand for
gifts processing are described by simple, uniform probability
distributions. Under that assumption we can ask ourselves
whether or
not increasing the maximum capacity of our process; i.e.,
allowing workers to work longer hours (process more gifts)
affects WIP levels
and hence, holding costs. Increased peak
capacity at each step costs more, but if it lowers the holding
cost
more than the extra capacity costs, it might be worth it. To keep
the
numbers simple, we will assume the holding cost per gift to
be $1, $2, $3, $5, and $7 for process steps 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5,
respectively.
Now study the Simulation1.xls spreadsheet
that models the process of this company and pay attention to the
following:
Notice how
the Model sheet tracks for each of the five production steps
the various variables for a 20-day simulation (20 demands, 20
capacity
fluctuations). These demand and capacity data are computed by
11. randomly selecting a value
from between the minimum and maximum demand and capacity
values listed in the
Decision variables box at the top of the Model sheet. Notice
how each step
in the process has its own maximum capacity (all set at 6).
Minimum capacity is 1
for all steps. Maximum demand (6) is the maximum number of
gifts requested by
customers at any given day. Minimum demand is set at 1.
By pushing the F9 key you can resample the
values and run another 20-day simulation.
The Multiple Runs sheet collects 100 of
these 20-day runs; i.e., every time you press F9, 100
20-day model runs are made; i.e., this is a Monte Carlo
simulation where 100 different futures are simulated. Since the
values for the runs are
sampled from probability distributions, individual runs come
out differently. Make sure you
understand this before you go on.
The Summary sheet contains the summary statistics of the
Multiple Runs sheet. This
is the sheet that you study when evaluating the results of the
simulation.
Your assignment:
Using Simulation1.xls,
we're going to evaluate the effects on holding cost when
changing capacities. To do this, you will need to run several
simulations: one to estimate the
holding cost with the current capacities and several others to
estimate the
holding cost with other capacity values. You can change the
12. capacities by
changing the Max. capacity values in the Model sheet.
CAUTION: Since pressing the F9 key changes all of the data in
the spreadsheet, you will need to copy the Summary sheet for
each of the simulation runs
to a separate worksheet where they remain unchanged
regardless of how many times you push F9. That way you can
analyze your result data without having them change all the
time. Use Copy
--> Paste Special... --> Values to
do this.
Answer the following questions:
Would you expect holding cost to go down with increases in
peak capacity?
Explain your answer. Could the actual pattern to be different
from the expected one? Explain your answer.
Run your model to test your hypothesis formulated under 1.
What
do the holding cost do when you increase the max capacity for
all five process steps from 6 to 7?
Do the holding cost follow the expected pattern? If not, why
not? In your
answer consider both the mean of and variation in holding cost.
Also consider the percentage of completed
gifts (customers do not like finding out that their orders are not
ready))
Would you expect the capacity increase to have an effect on
slack?
Would you include slack effects in your decision to increase
or not increase capacity?
13. What does the model predict will be the effect of the capacity
increase on slack?
What happens with holding cost and slack when instead of
increasing the maximum capacity
for all steps from 6 to 7, we increase the minimum capacity
for all steps from 1 to 2?
Why is the effect on holding cost of changing
the minimum capacities with 1 so much bigger than the effect
of increasing the maximum capacities with 1?
Now, instead of setting the maximum capacity of all steps in the
process from 6 to 7, set
only the max capacities of steps 4 and step 5 to 7 while
leaving all others at 6. Set the minimum capacity back to 1.
What do you
observe when you run the model?
Make a recommendation as to whether or not and how to
increase capacity for this business.
In your analysis, carefully consider averages, minimum
values, maximum values and variation. Hint!!!:
you may want to try some model runs with capacity
configurations other than the ones we have tried so far. Keep in
mind
that a hold at step 5 is seven times as expensive as a hold at
step 1. Also keep in mind that as you hold fewer
gifts, you have to tell fewer customers that their gift
orders are not yet ready and that they have to coma back the
next day.
Along with your answers, turn in the following copies of the
Summary
sheet:
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 1 and
all maximum capacities at 6.
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 1 and all
14. maximum capacities at 7.
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 2 and all
maximum capacities at 6.
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 1, the
maximum capacity of only steps 4 and 5 at 7,
and the other steps at a maximum capacity of 6.
one copy of the model with the preferred capacity settings (if
different from the previous four).
In your answers/analysis, specify the numbers from your
models on which you base your conclusions:
Bad example: "average holding cost of the first model are less
than those of the second model."
Good example: "average holding cost of the first model
($114.17) are less than those of the second model ($687)."
Make sure that the numbers mentioned in your
answers/analysis correspond with the numbers on the Summary
sheets.
Writing guidelines:
Submit the homework in word-processed hardcopy (printed on
paper).
Add a title (cover) page to your work containing:
Title.
Your name.
Course number (BA302), course session, and name of the
15. instructor of record.
Date.
Add your name (format: Last name, First name) to the document
header so that it shows on the left upper corner of each page
!!!INCLUDING
THE TITLE (COVER) PAGE!!!.
Do not use the back side of the title (cover) page; leave it free
for
the instructor to make notes.
Use one-and-a-half (1.5) line spacing, 11- or 12-point font and
reasonable margins.
Separate your text in logical blocks and
sections.
Spell check (both automatically and manually!).
Grammar check!!
Peer review!! Before handing in your work, consider
asking one of your colleagues to review it in exchange for you
reviewing his/hers. When reviewing, carefully
(!!) read what your colleague wrote. Notice ambiguities,
note each and every spelling/grammar error, break up long and
awkward
sentences into shorter, more elegant ones, etc. In
other words: show that you care. Peer review is super powerful
-- Use it!!!
ModelLast-Minute Gifts ModelTo run a trial of 20 days, press
the F9 keyDecision variablesMin. capacity/all steps/day1Max
capacity/step/day Step 16Max capacity/step/day Step 26Max
capacity/step/day Step 36Max capacity/step/day Step 46Max
capacity/step/day Step 56Min. demand/day1Max.
demand/day6Total demand & deliveryTotal holding costTotal
slackCorrelation Holds-SlackTotal
demand77Holds$/HoldHold$Slack-0.35Total shipped53Step
1161$1$161Step 10Total not shipped24Step 242$2$84Step 28%
20. holds:30.00%Max holding cost$1,366Max slack134.00St. dev.
holding cost273.541St. dev. slack20.47
Multiple run summaryMin. capacity/all steps/day1Max
capacity/step/day Step 16Max capacity/step/day Step 26Max
capacity/step/day Step 36Max capacity/step/day Step 46Max
capacity/step/day Step 56Min. demand/day1Max.
demand/day6Production dataDemandShipmentsStep 1Step 2Step
3Step 4Step 5HoldsAverage Holding
CostAverage:69.5448.6889.40117.72132.09188.02172.37254.51
$699.59Percent shipped:70.00%Min holding cost$208.00Percent
holds:30.00%Max holding cost$1,366.00St. dev. holding
cost$273.54Slack dataStep 1Step 2Step 3Step 4Step 5Average
Total SlackAverage:7.4112.9015.1419.5820.2975.32Min
slack34.00Max slack134.00St. dev. slack20.47
BA 302 Business Process Management — Simulation —
Homework
In this homework, you'll work with a simple, discrete simulation
model of a fictitious last-minute gift
business.
To successfully complete this homework, we strongly advise
that you follow the following procedure:
The homework is based on Microsoft Excel 2003, 2007 or 2010
(your
choice) running on Microsoft Windows.
For these spreadsheets to work you
MUST(!!) add-in the Analysis Toolpak (if installed you see a
Data Analysis option in the Analysis group of the Data option
21. on the main menu). If you do
not have the Analysis Toolpak added in and you do not know
how to add it in, go to Excel's Help (F1) and
type "Analysis Toolpak"
Although this homework will run on Microsoft's Mac
version of Excel, it is a little harder to make it work nicely.
Hence, we advise you
to run this homework on a Windows machine.
Carefully read the assignment and make sure that you
understand its logic.
Study the simulation model associated
with the problem. Make sure you understand what the
spreadsheet shows
and how you can use it before(!!) you use it to answer the
questions.
If reading the problem and studying
the spreadsheet causes you problems or if you lose track of
things,
first review your notes from class and see if your classmates can
help
you. If you remain stuck, see your instructor.
Assignment Background (adapted from Weida,
Richardson, Vazsonyi (2000) Operations Analysis Using
Microsoft Excel)
One of the costs of doing business is work-in-progress (WIP)
inventory; i.e., value-added work that is in progress but not yet
ready
to be sold. The value of this 'inventory,' often known as holding
cost
22. increases as it moves forward through the process chain, with
inventory
at the end worth more than at earlier steps; hence the term
'value add'. To compute
holding costs one typically multiplies the WIP quantity at each
process step by
its process-added value at that step. Holding cost is thus a
function of how
long the holding period is, the costs of storing and keeping
track of
the inventory, any finance costs incurred in borrowing the
money to pay for the inventory until it can be eventually sold
and the
expenses recovered, etc.
Before you go on, make sure you understand this concept of
holding
cost and the way in which these are computed.
Your simulation model simulates a five-step process employed
by the Last-Minute
Gifts company for preparing gift assortments for delivery to
holiday customers. Each gift that customers
order goes through these five steps in the following order:
Checking the order against available items in stock.
Selecting the right box and packing materials.
Retrieving the set of items from the warehouse stock.
Assembling the gift in the box.
Closing the box and completing the documentation for delivery
and sending the
completed invoice to order processing.
23. We will staff each step with its own server!
!!! Important !!! You should realize that this business is a
service business; it is NOT
manufacturing and hence, it
has no inventory(!!) other than the gifts that have not yet been
processed and are held overnight.
Let us assume that process capacity; i.e., the availability and
performance of the people working in the business is variable.
This could be
the case, for instance, if you would hire workers with various
skill levels off the street (not very realistic, but good enough for
this
exercise).
Let's also assume that both your capacity and the demand for
gifts processing are described by simple, uniform probability
distributions. Under that assumption we can ask ourselves
whether or
not increasing the maximum capacity of our process; i.e.,
allowing workers to work longer hours (process more gifts)
affects WIP levels
and hence, holding costs. Increased peak
capacity at each step costs more, but if it lowers the holding
cost
more than the extra capacity costs, it might be worth it. To keep
the
numbers simple, we will assume the holding cost per gift to
be $1, $2, $3, $5, and $7 for process steps 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5,
24. respectively.
Now study the Simulation1.xls spreadsheet
that models the process of this company and pay attention to the
following:
Notice how
the Model sheet tracks for each of the five production steps
the various variables for a 20-day simulation (20 demands, 20
capacity
fluctuations). These demand and capacity data are computed by
randomly selecting a value
from between the minimum and maximum demand and capacity
values listed in the
Decision variables box at the top of the Model sheet. Notice
how each step
in the process has its own maximum capacity (all set at 6).
Minimum capacity is 1
for all steps. Maximum demand (6) is the maximum number of
gifts requested by
customers at any given day. Minimum demand is set at 1.
By pushing the F9 key you can resample the
values and run another 20-day simulation.
The Multiple Runs sheet collects 100 of
these 20-day runs; i.e., every time you press F9, 100
20-day model runs are made; i.e., this is a Monte Carlo
simulation where 100 different futures are simulated. Since the
values for the runs are
sampled from probability distributions, individual runs come
out differently. Make sure you
understand this before you go on.
The Summary sheet contains the summary statistics of the
Multiple Runs sheet. This
is the sheet that you study when evaluating the results of the
simulation.
25. Your assignment:
Using Simulation1.xls,
we're going to evaluate the effects on holding cost when
changing capacities. To do this, you will need to run several
simulations: one to estimate the
holding cost with the current capacities and several others to
estimate the
holding cost with other capacity values. You can change the
capacities by
changing the Max. capacity values in the Model sheet.
CAUTION: Since pressing the F9 key changes all of the data in
the spreadsheet, you will need to copy the Summary sheet for
each of the simulation runs
to a separate worksheet where they remain unchanged
regardless of how many times you push F9. That way you can
analyze your result data without having them change all the
time. Use Copy
--> Paste Special... --> Values to
do this.
Answer the following questions:
Would you expect holding cost to go down with increases in
peak capacity?
Explain your answer. Could the actual pattern to be different
from the expected one? Explain your answer.
Run your model to test your hypothesis formulated under 1.
What
26. do the holding cost do when you increase the max capacity for
all five process steps from 6 to 7?
Do the holding cost follow the expected pattern? If not, why
not? In your
answer consider both the mean of and variation in holding cost.
Also consider the percentage of completed
gifts (customers do not like finding out that their orders are not
ready))
Would you expect the capacity increase to have an effect on
slack?
Would you include slack effects in your decision to increase
or not increase capacity?
What does the model predict will be the effect of the capacity
increase on slack?
What happens with holding cost and slack when instead of
increasing the maximum capacity
for all steps from 6 to 7, we increase the minimum capacity
for all steps from 1 to 2?
Why is the effect on holding cost of changing
the minimum capacities with 1 so much bigger than the effect
of increasing the maximum capacities with 1?
Now, instead of setting the maximum capacity of all steps in the
process from 6 to 7, set
only the max capacities of steps 4 and step 5 to 7 while
leaving all others at 6. Set the minimum capacity back to 1.
What do you
observe when you run the model?
Make a recommendation as to whether or not and how to
increase capacity for this business.
In your analysis, carefully consider averages, minimum
values, maximum values and variation. Hint!!!:
you may want to try some model runs with capacity
configurations other than the ones we have tried so far. Keep in
mind
that a hold at step 5 is seven times as expensive as a hold at
step 1. Also keep in mind that as you hold fewer
27. gifts, you have to tell fewer customers that their gift
orders are not yet ready and that they have to coma back the
next day.
Along with your answers, turn in the following copies of the
Summary
sheet:
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 1 and
all maximum capacities at 6.
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 1 and all
maximum capacities at 7.
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 2 and all
maximum capacities at 6.
one copy for the model with all minimum capacities at 1, the
maximum capacity of only steps 4 and 5 at 7,
and the other steps at a maximum capacity of 6.
one copy of the model with the preferred capacity settings (if
different from the previous four).
In your answers/analysis, specify the numbers from your
models on which you base your conclusions:
Bad example: "average holding cost of the first model are less
than those of the second model."
Good example: "average holding cost of the first model
($114.17) are less than those of the second model ($687)."
Make sure that the numbers mentioned in your
answers/analysis correspond with the numbers on the Summary
sheets.
28. Writing guidelines:
Submit the homework in word-processed hardcopy (printed on
paper).
Add a title (cover) page to your work containing:
Title.
Your name.
Course number (BA302), course session, and name of the
instructor of record.
Date.
Add your name (format: Last name, First name) to the document
header so that it shows on the left upper corner of each page
!!!INCLUDING
THE TITLE (COVER) PAGE!!!.
Do not use the back side of the title (cover) page; leave it free
for
the instructor to make notes.
Use one-and-a-half (1.5) line spacing, 11- or 12-point font and
reasonable margins.
Separate your text in logical blocks and
sections.
Spell check (both automatically and manually!).
Grammar check!!
Peer review!! Before handing in your work, consider
asking one of your colleagues to review it in exchange for you
reviewing his/hers. When reviewing, carefully
(!!) read what your colleague wrote. Notice ambiguities,
note each and every spelling/grammar error, break up long and
awkward
sentences into shorter, more elegant ones, etc. In
other words: show that you care. Peer review is super powerful
