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ISPIM Future Agenda - Six key challenges and major innovation opportunities - Porto - 20 06 16


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A keynote at ISPIM conference in Porto on 20 June 2016 sharing insights from the latest Future Agenda programme. Focuses initially on the 6 key challenges for for next decade for future of people, place, power, belief, behaviour and business. Then shares some views from global discussions on the world in 2025 before adding in 6 major innovation opportunities for the next decade include food waste, data marketplaces, sanitation, ethical machines and deeper collaboration.

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ISPIM Future Agenda - Six key challenges and major innovation opportunities - Porto - 20 06 16

  1. 1. Six Key Challenges for the Next Decade Six Major Innova-on Opportuni-es ISPIM | Porto | 20 June 2016 The world’s leading open foresight program
  2. 2. This Talk Covers Three Topics Six Key Challenges for the Next Decade The World in 2025 – Some Insights from 120 Discussions Six Major InnovaHon OpportuniHes
  3. 3. Six Key Challenges for The Next Decade
  4. 4. Future People With an increasingly unequal and ageing popula-on in many countries, how will we generate the wealth to fairly rebalance society and afford beJer care provision?
  5. 5. Future Place As the shiM to urban living puts pressure on the infrastructure, how do we create las-ng ci-es that deliver beJer quality of life and also support rural communi-es?
  6. 6. Future Power With Western governments ceding influence to ci-es and networks at the same -me as Asia and Africa assert greater authority, how will global leadership be defined?
  7. 7. Future Belief In a world of changing priori-es and shiMing loyal-es, who and what will set the values and norms by which we choose to live our lives to greater benefit?
  8. 8. Future Behaviour As more of us recognise the core issues and constraints for the future, how do we adopt more efficient aRtudes and change our behaviour to protect what maJers?
  9. 9. Future Business By 2025, organisa-ons driven solely by profit will not be sustainable. How will they evolve to address new challenges, develop opportuni-es and contribute to society?
  10. 10. The World in 2025 | Insights from Mul-ple Expert Discussions
  11. 11. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses mul-ple views of the next decade so we can all be beJer informed and s-mulate innova-on.
  12. 12. Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place during 2015 and has been addressing 24 topics via 120 events in 45 ci-es in 35 countries in partnership with 50 core hosts. Ci-es Educa-on Learning Transport Collabora-on Energy Loyalty Travel Company Faith Payments Water Connec-vity Food Privacy Wealth Currency Government Resources Work Ageing Data Health Trade
  13. 13. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac-on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
  14. 14. Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul-ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec-on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec-vely but are concerned about the security of the informa-on that flows.
  15. 15. Imbalanced PopulaHon Growth A growing popula-on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra-on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra-os challenge many.
  16. 16. ShiWing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con-nues shiMing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali-es of popula-on and resource loca-ons are immoveable.
  17. 17. Affordable Healthcare The escala-ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori-es.
  18. 18. Autonomous Vehicles The shiM to fully autonomous transport is an evolu-on via truck platoons on highways and small urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network and test the technologies for the eventual revolu-onary driverless experience.
  19. 19. Air Quality Rising air pollu-on in many ci-es is killing people and becomes a visible catalyst for changing mind-sets and policies across health, energy, transporta-on and urban design.
  20. 20. Intra City CollaboraHon Increasing compe--on between ci-es overrides na-onal boundaries and drives change. They compete to aJract the best but also collaborate to avoid the downside of success – over-crowding, under-resourcing and pollu-on.
  21. 21. The Value of Data As organisa-ons try to retain as much informa-on about their customers as possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore requires a marketplace where anything that is informa-on is represented.
  22. 22. The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more interna-onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between protec-on, security, privacy and public good is increasingly poli-cal.
  23. 23. Access to Transport The widespread need for individuals to travel short distances becomes a key feature of urban design and regenera-on. Planners use transport infrastructure to influence social change and lower carbon living.
  24. 24. AcceleraHng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli-cal elites unable or unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra-on to the North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
  25. 25. CiHzen-Centric CiHes Successful ci-es will be designed around the needs and desires of increasingly empowered and enabled ci-zens - who are expec-ng personalized services from the organisa-ons that serve them.
  26. 26. PlasHc Oceans There are increasing high levels of man-made pollu-on in many of the world’s seas and liJle actually disappears. By 2050 there will be more plas-c than fish in the world’s oceans.
  27. 27. SomeHmes Nomads Elec-ve migra-on, cheap travel, interna-onal knowledge sharing and increasingly transient working models create connected nomads who mix the tradi-ons of home with the values and customs of their host loca-on.
  28. 28. Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re-rements. Flexible working prac-ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con-nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
  29. 29. Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African con-nent and its resources. However, un-l recently, only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.
  30. 30. Eco-CivilisaHon Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for long-term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.
  31. 31. Digital Money Cash con-nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisa-ons with lower cost transac-ons. Wider adop-on enables new offers to proliferate.
  32. 32. Speed to Scale Greater global connec-vity, growing consumer wealth and broader reach all combine to accelerate the -me to 1bn customers and a $10bn valua-on for start-ups and new corporate ventures alike.
  33. 33. Six Major InnovaHon OpportuniHes
  34. 34. Food Waste 30-50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump-on and could feed another 3 billion. Op-mising distribu-on and storage in developing countries and enabling beJer consumer informa-on in others could solve this.
  35. 35. Basic SanitaHon Poor sanita-on con-nues to impact public health and restrict social progress, par-cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa-ons priori-se measurement, educa-on and innova-on in a bid to drive change.
  36. 36. EducaHon RevoluHon Broader access to improved educa-on acts as a major catalyst for empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa-on system fit for the digital revolu-on.
  37. 37. A Data Marketplace Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything that is informa-on is represented in a new data marketplace.
  38. 38. Ethical Machines Automa-on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
  39. 39. Deeper CollaboraHon Partnerships shiM to become more dynamic, long-term, democra-sed, mul--party collabora-ons. Compe-tor alliances and wider public par-cipa-on drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe-c collabora-on.
  40. 40. More InformaHon and Insights hJp:// hJp://
  41. 41. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix