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Understanding uncertainty RCA - 28 11 16


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This is a talk being given at the Royal College of Art in London on Monday 28th Nov. As part of the 'Intersections' lecture series it aims to highlight how bringing together different perspectives from around the world can help us see things differently and hopefully uncover new challenges and opportunities. For more details of the event see

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Understanding uncertainty RCA - 28 11 16

  1. 1.         Understanding  Uncertainty   Gaining  the  Global  Perspec2ve   RCA  |  London  |  28  November  2016   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program      
  2. 2.         Inspira2on  
  3. 3.         Predic2on  
  4. 4.         Roadmaps  
  5. 5.         Alternate  Paths  
  6. 6.         Obscurity  
  7. 7.     Foresight  vs.  Insight  
  8. 8.     Inside-­‐Out  and  Outside-­‐In  
  9. 9.     Shell  GameChanger  |  Technology  Futures  2004/7  
  10. 10.     Seeing  Beyond  the  Now      
  11. 11.     Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program.     Run  as  a  global  NFP  dialogue  across  all  con2nents,  it  accesses  mul2ple  views  of  the   next  decade  so  we  can  all  be  beSer  informed  and  so  s2mulate  innova2on.  
  12. 12.     RCA  IDE  Projects  2010  
  13. 13.     2010  Event  Loca2ons      
  14. 14.     Hal3ng  Alzheimer's     Stopping  mental  degrada2on  from  Alzheimer’s  makes     quality  ageing  more  possible  by  improving     cogni2on  and  slowing  the  rate  of  decline      
  15. 15.     Lease  Everything   Rising  sustainability  impera2ves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  shiZ  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy        
  16. 16.     Solar  Sunrise   Increasing  governmental  focus  on  energy  security     and  climate  change  drives  the  uptake  of  large-­‐scale     solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply      
  17. 17.     Mega  City  States   Increasing  compe22on  between  ci2es  over-­‐rides  na2onal     priori2es  as  mayors  lead  bold  ini2a2ves  to  place  their     ci2es  at  the  forefront  of  the  global  stage      
  18. 18.     Drone  Wars   Intelligent  UAVs  choose  their  vic2ms  themselves     as  the  race  for  more  focused  military  influence  leads     to  the  prolifera2on  of  assassina2on  tools      
  19. 19.     Outcomes   Vodafone  curated  the  ‘mobile’  filter  view  while  many  other  organisa2ons  around     the  world  variously  used  the  insights  and  pla`orm  to  iden2fy  new  innova2on   opportuni2es,  challenge  strategic  assump2ons  and  develop  thought-­‐leadership  
  20. 20.     Future  Agenda  2.0   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  a  wide  range  of  views  in    25  countries.  Future  Agenda  2.0  doubled  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interac2on     and  significantly  raised  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     50  HOSTS   24  TOPICS   35  COUNTRIES   120  WORKSHOPS   5000  ORGANISATIONS  
  21. 21.     2015  Event  Loca2ons      
  22. 22.     Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   Ci2es   Educa2on   Learning   Transport   Collabora2on   Energy   Loyalty   Travel   Company   Faith   Payments   Water   Connec2vity   Food   Privacy   Wealth   Currency   Government   Resources   Work   Ageing   Data   Health   Trade  
  23. 23.      Imbalanced  Popula3on  Growth    A  growing  popula2on  adds  another  billion  people  but  it  is  also  rapidly  ageing:     a  child  born  next  year  will  live  6  months  longer  than  one  born  today.  While     migra2on  helps  to  rebalance,  increasing  dependency  ra2os  challenge  many.        
  24. 24.     Key  Resource  Constraints   Economic,  physical  and  poli2cal  shortages  of  key  resources  increase  and  drive   increasing  tension  between  and  within  countries.  As  we  exceed  the  Earth’s   natural  thresholds,  food  and  water  receive  as  much  focus  as  oil  and  gas.      
  25. 25.     ShiSing  Power  and  Influence   The  centre  of  gravity  of  economic  power  con2nues  shiZing  eastwards,  back  to     where  it  was  200  years  ago.  Recent  superpowers  seek  to  moderate  the  pace  of     change  but  the  reali2es  of  popula2on  and  resource  loca2ons  are  immoveable.      
  26. 26.     The  Changing  Nature  of  Privacy   As  privacy  is  a  public  issue,  more  interna2onal  frameworks  seek  to  govern  the   Internet,  protect  the  vulnerable  and  secure  personal  data:  The  balance  between   protec2on,  security,  privacy  and  public  good  is  increasingly  poli2cal.      
  27. 27.     Autonomous  Vehicles    The  shiZ  to  fully  autonomous  transport  is  an  evolu2on  via  truck  platoons  on     highways  and  small  urban  delivery  pods.  Connected  cars  create  the  network     and  test  the  technologies  for  the  eventual  revolu2onary  driverless  experience.      
  28. 28.     Accelera3ng  Displacement   Climate  change,  conflict,  resource  shortages,  inequality  and  poli2cal  elites  unable  or   unwilling  to  bring  about  necessary  change  all  trigger  unprecedented  migra2on  to  the   North.  Over  the  next  50  years,  as  many  as  1  billion  people  could  be  on  the  move.      
  29. 29.     Companies  with  Purpose    As  trust  in  ‘business’  declines,  structures  and  prac2ces  of  large  corpora2ons     are  under  scru2ny.  Businesses  come  under  greater  pressure  to  improve     performance  on  environmental,  social  and  governance  issues.        
  30. 30.     Eco-­‐Civilisa3on   Over  the  past  40  years  China  has  grown  apace,  mostly  without  concern  for     long-­‐term  environmental  impacts.  However,  now  faced  with  major     challenges,  a  bright  light  of  sustainable  development  is  emerging.          
  31. 31.     Future  Innova3on  Opportuni3es  
  32. 32.     Selec3on  Criteria   We  have  chosen  those  areas  that  meet  three  criteria:     being  global  /  mul2  regional  in  impact,  s2ll  requiring  significant     progress  and  having  the  poten2al  to  create  new  value.       Global  or     Mul2  Regional   Impact   Poten2al  to   Create  New   Value   S2ll  Require   Significant   Progress  
  33. 33.     Reducing  Air  Pollu3on    Rising  air  pollu2on  in  many  ci2es  is  already  killing  people.     It  will  become  a  visible  catalyst  for  changing  mind-­‐sets  and  policies     across  health,  energy,  transporta2on  and  urban  design.      
  34. 34.     Providing  Basic  Sanita3on   Poor  sanita2on  con2nues  to  impact  public  health  and  restrict  social  progress,   par2cularly  for  women.  Governments  and  donor  organisa2ons  priori2se   measurement,  educa2on  and  innova2on  in  a  bid  to  drive  change.        
  35. 35.     Minimising  Food  Waste    30-­‐50%  of  our  food  is  wasted  either  in  the  supply  chain  or  in  consump2on  and     could  feed  another  3  billion.  Op2mising  distribu2on  and  storage  in  developing   countries  and  enabling  beSer  consumer  informa2on  in  others  could  solve  this.      
  36. 36.     Delivering  Affordable  Healthcare      The  escala2ng  cost  of  healthcare  is  further  stressed  by  the  need  to  support     the  old  and  the  chronically  ill.  Spending  20%  of  GDP  on  healthcare  is  seen  as   unsustainable  so  hard  decisions  are  taken  around  budgets  and  priori2es.      
  37. 37.     Driving  the  Educa3on  Revolu3on   Broader  access  to  improved  educa2on  acts  as  a  major  catalyst  for     empowerment,  sustained  economic  growth,  overcoming  inequality  and     reducing  conflict.  We  need  an  educa2on  system  fit  for  the  digital  revolu2on.      
  38. 38.     True  Value  of  Clean  Water   As  water  stress  impacts  40%  of  the  world,  we  will  have  to  pay  the  true  value  for  this   key  resource.  In  a  more  water-­‐conscious  world,  the  cost  of  water  is  recognised,  full   water  footprints  are  measured  and  companies  significantly  reduce  consump2on.      
  39. 39.     Suppor3ng  Working  Longer    People  are  having  to  work  for  longer  to  support  longer  re2rements.     Flexible  working  prac2ces  and  policies  are  emerging,  but  some     employers  con2nue  to  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.        
  40. 40.     Building  Data  Marketplaces     Data  is  a  currency,  it  has  a  value  and  a  price,  and  therefore  requires  a     market  place.  An  ecosystem  for  trading  data  is  emerging  and  anything     that  is  informa2on  is  represented  in  a  new  data  marketplace.        
  41. 41.     Inves3ng  in  Nature’s  Capital    In  the  Anthropocene,  humankind  is  presiding  over  the     Earth's  sixth  major  ex2nc2on.  But  as  biodiversity  declines,     nature  becomes  increasingly  valued  and  valuable.      
  42. 42.     Governance  of  Machines   Automa2on  spreads  beyond  trading  and  managing  systemic  risk.     As  we  approach  technology  singularity,  autonomous  robots  and     smarter  algorithms  make  ethical  judgments  that  impact  life  or  death.        
  43. 43.     More  Informa2on  and  Insights     hSp://­‐agenda    hSp://    
  44. 44.     Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix