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Future of Cities


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We are delighted to share our insights to date on the Future of Cities. This is being released before our upcoming event in Singapore on 14 July 2016, to be led by Anupam Yog and Patrick Harris.

Future Agenda would like to thank Haworth for their kind hosting of the event on the 14th and The Partners who are kindly helping us with logistics in advance. Material here is from an initial perspective written by Harry Rich, CEO RIBA and which has been built upon subsequently with conversations in Dubai, Christchurch NZ, Singapore and Beiruit.

More Future of Cities workshops are planned throughout 2016 for Los Angeles, Shanghai, London and Dubai.

Comments very welcome.

Published in: Environment
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Future of Cities

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Ci-es      Insights  from  Mul0ple  Expert  Discussions  Around  The  World      2015/16  
  2. 2. Context   An  ini0al  perspec0ve  on  the  Future  of  Ci0es  kicked  off  the  Future  Agenda   global  discussions  and  is  being  steadily  built  on  via  mul0ple  workshops     around  the  world  across  all  five  con0nents  adding  new  views  into  the  mix.   Ini0al   Perspec0ve   Q4  2014   2015   Discussions   Q1/3  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q4  2015   Further   Discussions   2016  
  3. 3. Insights  to  Date   To  date  we  have  gained  views  from  many  discussions  around  the  world.     These  have  included  several  events  focused  on  the  topic  of  ci0es  which  have   taken  place  in  Singapore,  Dubai,  Beirut,  Delhi,  London  and  Wellington.  
  4. 4. Mass  Urbanisa-on   By  2050  over  70%  of  people  will  live  in  a  city.     The  growth  of  mega-­‐ci0es  is  crea0ng  a  new  wave  of  urbanisa0on.     Such  mass  urbanisa0on  requires  us  to  reconsider  how  we  design  ci0es.      
  5. 5. Consuming  Ci-es     Ci0es  consume  75%  of  the  world’s  natural  resources,  and  produce  more  than   60%  of  GHG  emissions.  As  a  result,  while  the  economic  power  of  ci0es   con0nues  to  grow,  they  remain  vulnerable  to  the  products  of  their  success.      
  6. 6. Air  Quality    Rising  air  pollu0on  in  many  ci0es  is  killing  people.     Air  quality  is  viewed  as  the  topic  for  changing  mind-­‐sets  and  policies     across  health,  energy,  transporta0on  and  urban  design.      
  7. 7. Intra  City  Collabora-on    Increasing  compe00on  between  ci0es  extends  beyond  na0onal  borders  and   causes  change.  Ci0es  compete  to  aract  the  best  but  also  collaborate  to  avoid   the  downside  of  success  –  over-­‐crowding,  under-­‐resourcing  and  pollu0on.      
  8. 8. Built-­‐in  Flexibility    The  path  to  a  connected,  accessible  and  distributed  infrastructure  is     complex,  costly  and  risky.  This  includes  upgrading  systems  to  make  them     more  open  and  alloca0ng  necessary  resources  for  on-­‐going  maintenance.      
  9. 9. Accelera-ng  Displacement   Climate  change,  conflict,  resource  shortages,  inequality  and  inac0on     from  poli0cal  elites  trigger  unprecedented  migra0on  to  the  North.     Over  the  next  50  years,  as  many  as  1  billion  people  could  be  on  the  move.      
  10. 10. Ci-zen-­‐Centric  Ci-es       Successful  ci0es  will  be  designed  around  the  needs  and  desires     of  increasingly  empowered  ci0zens  who  expect  personalized  services     from  all  organisa0ons  that  serve  them.        
  11. 11. Flooded  Ci-es    The  vast  majority  of  our  ci0es  are  not  prepared  for  flooding.     Many  districts  and  households  can  no  longer  get  flood  insurance  and     are  in  jeopardy.  It’s  going  to  get  worse  before  it  gets  beer.      
  12. 12. Caring  for  Those  LeD  Behind   While  significant  progress  has  been  made,  millions  of  people  con0nue   to  be  lec  behind  from  mainstream  progress  -­‐  especially  the  young,     the  poor  and  those  who  are  disadvantaged.      
  13. 13. Floa-ng  Ci-es?   Climate  change  poses  a  worrying  challenge  for  ci0es.  Already  50%  of  ci0es     are  dealing  with  its  effects,  and  nearly  all  are  at  risk.  Over  90%  of  all  urban   areas  are  coastal,  pueng  most  ci0es  on  earth  at  risk  of  flooding.        
  14. 14. Adap-ng  for  Ageing  Popula-ons     In  developed  countries,  80%  of  older  people  will  live  in  ci0es  by  2050,  while   ci0es  in  developing  countries  will  house  25%  of  the  older  popula0on.  Planners   are  adap0ng  urban  environments  to  support  healthy  ageing  of  popula0ons.      
  15. 15. Crea-ve  Hubs     Ci0es  have  a  long  history  of  fostering  social  and  pragma0c  innova0on.     New  technology  has  enabled  ci0es  to  evolve  and  reinvent  themselves     in  the  face  of  huge  social,  environmental  and  technological  upheaval.      
  16. 16. Living  Ci-es     As  technology  becomes  more  sophis0cated,  ci0es  focus  on  designing  places   that  address  health  and  environmental  impacts.  This  results  in  more     compact  spaces  that  are  more  appealing  to  poten0al  residents.      
  17. 17. Digital  Engagement     Ci0es  are  using  digital  plagorms  to  beer  plan  for  the  future  and  encourage   public  engagement.  Using  new  technology  and  big  data  to  support  strategic   planning  of  a  city  can  help  improve  public  engagement  with  the  process.      
  18. 18. New  Models  and  Measures   We  need  measures  to  help  technology  to  play  a  role  across  boundaries.   Globally,  a  strong  cultural  shic  will  be  required,  moving  away  from  business-­‐as-­‐ usual  to  models  that  enable  economies  to  thrive  within  resource  constraints.      
  19. 19. People-­‐Powered  Planning     In  an  era  where  the  public  voice  is  easier  to  access  and  harder  to  suppress,  it   becomes  harder  to  generate  support  for  new  ini0a0ves  without  taking  public   views  into  account.  Leaders  will  need  to  maintain  public  and  poli0cal  support.        
  20. 20. Las-ng  Design     We  need  a  shic  toward  a  circular  economy  that  is  restora0ve,  both  naturally   and  technically.  Buildings  have  to  be  built  to  an0cipate  future  change,     rather  than  using  design  standards  based  on  exis0ng  condi0ons.        
  21. 21. Healthy  Ci-es     Approaches  that  encourage  healthier  urban  dwellers  will  improve  design  of   ci0es  with  reduced  healthcare  costs,  increased  produc0vity,  more  community   resilience,  improved  life  expectancy  and  fewer  demands  on  health  services.      
  22. 22. Coopera-on  Across  Boundaries   Ci0es  need  more  coopera0ve  government  working  across     systems  and  boundaries.  This  includes  a  focus  on  long-­‐term  benefits     to  society,  par0cularly  with  regard  to  planning  and  investment.      
  23. 23. Dense  Ci-es   As  urban  migra0on  increases,  more  efficient,  densely  populated  ci0es  like     Paris  and  Hong  Kong  are  the  blueprints  for  sustainable  places  to  live     instead  of  distributed  sprawls  such  as  Los  Angeles  and  Mexico  City.          
  24. 24. Public-­‐Private  City  Partnerships   To  address  major  urban  challenges,  as  shown  by  Medellin  in  Colombia,   governments  increasingly  openly  collaborate  with  business  to  improve  the   ins0tu0onal  fabric  of  ci0es  as  well  as  core  infrastructure.        
  25. 25. Safe  Ci-es     Urban  dwellers  expect  their  ci0es  to  be  secure.  Increased  monitoring  of     human  behaviour  and  surveillance  improves  the  sense  of  physical  security     but  at  the  cost  of  increased  fears  over  personal  data  and  loss  of  privacy.        
  26. 26. Pop-­‐up  Economies     Crowd-­‐sourcing  will  enable  ‘instant  economies’  where  communi0es  pool   resources  and  so  reduce  the  need  for  government  involvement.  The  downside   is  that  communi0es  create  their  own  iden0ty  making  “them  and  us”  obvious.          
  27. 27. Public  Spaces     Governments  are  pressured  to  ensure  that  public  spaces  are  created     and  retained  –  Places  where  people  can  meet,  congregate,  relax,  even     where  land  is  valuable  and  constrained,  are  prized  focal  points  for  society.      
  28. 28. Satellite  Ci-es   The  growth  of  satellite  ci0es  and  networks  of  midi-­‐ci0es  in  many  regions  is   seen  as  a  preferred  route  to  more  mega-­‐city  development.  Connected  by  fast   infrastructure,  these  act  collec0vely  economically  but  in  a  sustainable  manner.      
  29. 29. Waste  Management   As  ci0es  become  ever  more  densely  populated,  new  approaches  to     waste  management  will  be  introduced.  Especially  in  fast-­‐growing     mega-­‐ci0es,  waste  is  seen  as  a  resource  and  a  source  of  energy.      
  30. 30. Rural  Upgrade   We  will  see  some  regions  give  less  focus  to  ci0es  and  place  more  emphasis     on  upgrading  rural  infrastructure  and  connec0vity.  This  will  help  slow  the     push  of  migra0on  and  urbanisa0on  and  rejuvenate  life  in  villages.        
  31. 31. Rebalancing  the  Transport  Mix   Increased  conges0on  and  growing  popula0ons  leads  to  the  reintroduc0on  of   public  transport  systems  into  ci0es  where  the  car  has  become  dominant.   Improving  health,  produc0vity  and  overall  mobility  are  seen  as  priori0es.        
  32. 32. Cross  Society  Leadership   In  ci0es  where  local  differences  have  led  to  inac0on  and  regression,  greater   efforts  are  made  by  the  next  genera0on  to  drive  progress,  cross  divides  and   increase  collabora0on  around  common  needs  for  more  livable  ci0es.      
  33. 33. Walkable  Ci-es   Compact  spaces  are  made  more  appealing  to  urban  dwellers  with  a  focus     on  health,  environment  and  sustainability.  ‘Work,  live,  play’  clusters  in  ci0es   allow  residents  to  access  different  ac0vi0es  all  embedded  in  one  area.        
  34. 34. Inclusive  Design   Tradi0onal  forms  of  lifestyle,  employment  and  educa0on  are  replaced.     Seeing  0me  as  a  finite  resource  means  that  ci0es  are  beer  connected  and   spaces  are  beer  integrated  to  provide  a  more  equitable  arrangement  for  all.      
  35. 35. Wellness  Sanctuaries   Ci0es  are  not  just  measured  by  their  output  but  by  the  longevity  and     happiness  of  city  dwellers.  Reconnec0ng  people  with  each  other  and  their  city   brings  increased  access  to  healthcare,  green  spaces  and  increased  mobility.      
  36. 36. Local  Food   Ci0es  are  more  ‘edible’.  Increased  transparency  around  food  availability  and   land  use  causes  ci0es  to  incorporate  more  urban  farming  spaces.  Innova0ve   produc0ve  systems  allow  residents  beer  access  to  local,  fresh  food.      
  37. 37. Responsibili-es  Beyond  City  Limits   Ci0es  recognise  that  they  can  not  exist  without  the  de-­‐urbanised  world.  Hong   Kong,  for  example,  imports  90%  of  its  food.  Ci0es  have  responsibility  beyond   their  borders  and  are  more  involved  in  surrounding  and  global  ecosystems.        
  38. 38. Poli-cal  Construct  of  Ci-es   Ci0es  are  increasingly  designed  to  reflect  a  par0cipatory  ci0zenship.  The  rising   power  of  ci0zens  and  brands  means  that  governments  must  cooperate  with   the  private  sector  and  the  mass  to  address  urban  development  challenges.      
  39. 39. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix