1. Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next Decade
Insights From Multiple Expert Discussions Around The World
13 Aug 2020

2. Future Agenda
Future Agenda enable organisations to see emerging opportunities, make more
informed decisions and place better, strategic growth bets. We help companies
recognise how changes in the external world may impact them and their sector.
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3. The World in 2020
The first global Future Agenda programme in 2010 was hosted by Vodafone.
Fifty workshops across 16 topics in 25 locations with 1500 experts identified a
wide range of 10-year shifts, over 80% of which have now come to pass.
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4. The World in 2025
A second larger programme in 2015 involved 50 organisations as hosts.
120 workshops in 45 cities engaged with over 5000 experts across 24 topics.
Issues identified have become a central focus for major innovation globally.
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5. World in 2030 – Implications for Insurance
The third programme is now engaging more experts on the pivotal shifts via
virtual workshops and wider community debate. Here are 12 data, risk and
sector trends that may drive lasting change across insurance.

6. DATA TRENDS

7. Data Sovereignty
Large population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a
national priority, so they can grow the economy and maintain cultural identity.
Wider sharing and use of data is restricted to within national borders.

8. Ownership of Machine Data
Debates on who has what rights to which data escalate. Questions on title,
control and usage lead to many sectors taking different approaches.
Ambiguity on ownership of IoT data limits leverage and value creation.

9. Digital ID
Validation of customer and machine credentials is instantaneous, with the user
increasingly in control of where their personal data is made available. Shared
access to digital identity platforms disrupts proprietary business models.

10. Proof of Immunity
Public concerns about health security override privacy worries. Governments
use digital platforms integrate immunity and health data with national ID.
Insurance cover are driven by knowing who is, and who is not, immune.

11. CHANGING RISKS

12. Uncertain Liability
New business models and regional agenda in area such as autonomous cars
drive uncertainty on ownership of risk and an inability to price the unpriceable.
Liability blurs between user, owner, operator, city and regulator.

13. Cyber Security Collaboration
With a rising threat of hacks, denial of service and theft of data, organisations
and cities seek to protect operations from more sophisticated cyberattack. Many
adopt common approaches for broader, collaborative but closed systems.

14. No Insurance
The protection gap, the difference between insured and un-insured risks, grows.
Cities, companies and communities all find alternative ways to hedge risk by
working directly with re-insurers, self-insuring, or doing without cover.

15. Emerging Risks
By 2030 additional risks will be more evident coming from multiple sources:
intangible risk, planetary boundaries, the changing nature of conflict with new
bad actors, distributed operations and more pandemics all challenge us.

16. SECTOR SHIFTS

17. Automatic Insurance
Increased connectivity, real-time data and a critical mass of IoT, are integrated
with deep learning AI to deliver transformation in analysis and decision making.
Brokers are bypassed: Insurance is activated only when and where it is required.

18. N=1 Personalisation
Widespread facial recognition, embedded sensors and real-time analytics
enable provision of cover at the individual level. Led by Chinese firms such as
Ping-An in health, insurance is just part of a fully personalised service.

19. Smart Contracts
As an early application of block-chain, increased use of smart contracts enables
transaction and payout efficiency as well as opportunity for product flexibility.
New entrants rapidly gain market share as other firms are slow to move.

20. Greater Transparency
Pervasive digitisation makes many activities less opaque to users: revealing
underlying processes and margins. Several proactively engage to enhance
competitive advantage, but some incumbents seek to slow progress.

21. Your Perspective
We would very much welcome your contribution, feedback and critique to help
improve the insights, prioritise those of most significance and identify any gaps.

22. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141
www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda