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Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next Decade

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The insurance sector is facing major change - from both within and outside. What will be the major shifts over the next decade that have greatest impact? As part of the World in 2030 project, this is an initial view of 12 major trends that will influence insurance globally - looking across data shifts, market trends and in-sector innovations.

What do you think? Which will have greatest impact? Will it be automatic insurance? or N=1 personalisation?

Let us know your views and we can include them in an updated foresight in the next month or so.

Get in touch via douglas.jones@futureagenda.org

For more on The World in 2030 see: https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/

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Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next Decade

  1. 1. Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next Decade Insights From Multiple Expert Discussions Around The World 13 Aug 2020
  2. 2. Future Agenda Future Agenda enable organisations to see emerging opportunities, make more informed decisions and place better, strategic growth bets. We help companies recognise how changes in the external world may impact them and their sector. INSIGHT IMPACT Global Foresight Industry Insight Bespoke Research New Services New Products New Strategies Core Team Extended Team The Global Network
  3. 3. The World in 2020 The first global Future Agenda programme in 2010 was hosted by Vodafone. Fifty workshops across 16 topics in 25 locations with 1500 experts identified a wide range of 10-year shifts, over 80% of which have now come to pass. Lease Everything Global Pandemics Active Elderly People TrackingDrone Wars
  4. 4. The World in 2025 A second larger programme in 2015 involved 50 organisations as hosts. 120 workshops in 45 cities engaged with over 5000 experts across 24 topics. Issues identified have become a central focus for major innovation globally. Plastic Oceans Air Quality Energy Storage Value of DataTruth and Illusion
  5. 5. World in 2030 – Implications for Insurance The third programme is now engaging more experts on the pivotal shifts via virtual workshops and wider community debate. Here are 12 data, risk and sector trends that may drive lasting change across insurance.
  6. 6. DATA TRENDS
  7. 7. Data Sovereignty Large population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a national priority, so they can grow the economy and maintain cultural identity. Wider sharing and use of data is restricted to within national borders.
  8. 8. Ownership of Machine Data Debates on who has what rights to which data escalate. Questions on title, control and usage lead to many sectors taking different approaches. Ambiguity on ownership of IoT data limits leverage and value creation.
  9. 9. Digital ID Validation of customer and machine credentials is instantaneous, with the user increasingly in control of where their personal data is made available. Shared access to digital identity platforms disrupts proprietary business models.
  10. 10. Proof of Immunity Public concerns about health security override privacy worries. Governments use digital platforms integrate immunity and health data with national ID. Insurance cover are driven by knowing who is, and who is not, immune.
  11. 11. CHANGING RISKS
  12. 12. Uncertain Liability New business models and regional agenda in area such as autonomous cars drive uncertainty on ownership of risk and an inability to price the unpriceable. Liability blurs between user, owner, operator, city and regulator.
  13. 13. Cyber Security Collaboration With a rising threat of hacks, denial of service and theft of data, organisations and cities seek to protect operations from more sophisticated cyberattack. Many adopt common approaches for broader, collaborative but closed systems.
  14. 14. No Insurance The protection gap, the difference between insured and un-insured risks, grows. Cities, companies and communities all find alternative ways to hedge risk by working directly with re-insurers, self-insuring, or doing without cover.
  15. 15. Emerging Risks By 2030 additional risks will be more evident coming from multiple sources: intangible risk, planetary boundaries, the changing nature of conflict with new bad actors, distributed operations and more pandemics all challenge us.
  16. 16. SECTOR SHIFTS
  17. 17. Automatic Insurance Increased connectivity, real-time data and a critical mass of IoT, are integrated with deep learning AI to deliver transformation in analysis and decision making. Brokers are bypassed: Insurance is activated only when and where it is required.
  18. 18. N=1 Personalisation Widespread facial recognition, embedded sensors and real-time analytics enable provision of cover at the individual level. Led by Chinese firms such as Ping-An in health, insurance is just part of a fully personalised service.
  19. 19. Smart Contracts As an early application of block-chain, increased use of smart contracts enables transaction and payout efficiency as well as opportunity for product flexibility. New entrants rapidly gain market share as other firms are slow to move.
  20. 20. Greater Transparency Pervasive digitisation makes many activities less opaque to users: revealing underlying processes and margins. Several proactively engage to enhance competitive advantage, but some incumbents seek to slow progress.
  21. 21. Your Perspective We would very much welcome your contribution, feedback and critique to help improve the insights, prioritise those of most significance and identify any gaps.
  22. 22. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda

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