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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Ageing	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Discussions	
  Building	
  on	
  an	
  Ini4al	
  Perspec4ve...
Context	
  
The	
  ini4al	
  perspec4ve	
  on	
  the	
  Future	
  of	
  Ageing	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  	
  
Future	
  Ag...
Lifespan	
  Limits	
  	
  
	
  On	
  a	
  global	
  scale,	
  life	
  expectancies	
  in	
  developed	
  regions	
  are	
 ...
Age	
  Diversified	
  Workforces	
  
	
  The	
  demographic	
  changes	
  underway	
  are	
  fundamentally	
  altering	
  	...
Culture	
  Shi?	
  
	
  The	
  culture	
  that	
  guides	
  people	
  through	
  life	
  today	
  is	
  a	
  culture	
  th...
Looking	
  Ahead	
  
	
  Rather	
  than	
  move	
  forward	
  by	
  happenstance,	
  we	
  need	
  strategic	
  thinking	
...
Societal	
  Benefit	
  
	
  85%	
  of	
  Americans	
  aged	
  65-­‐69	
  report	
  no	
  health-­‐based	
  limita4ons	
  on...
Infeasible	
  ReDrement	
  
	
  For	
  many,	
  re4rement	
  at	
  age	
  65	
  is	
  economically	
  infeasible.	
  	
  
...
Increased	
  Wellbeing	
  
	
  Both	
  paid	
  and	
  unpaid	
  work	
  are	
  associated	
  with	
  enhanced	
  well-­‐be...
Working	
  Longer	
  
	
  For	
  those	
  who	
  have	
  inadequate	
  re4rement	
  savings,	
  the	
  most	
  obvious	
  ...
Cost	
  of	
  Older	
  Workers	
  
	
  The	
  cost	
  of	
  older	
  workers	
  is	
  a	
  real	
  issue	
  for	
  employe...
The	
  Bigger	
  Opportunity	
  
	
  Predic4ons	
  about	
  economic	
  disaster	
  change	
  to	
  discussions	
  of	
  e...
Life	
  Worth	
  Living	
  	
  
We	
  shif	
  the	
  system	
  from	
  one	
  focused	
  on	
  care	
  with	
  the	
  need...
Intra	
  and	
  Inter-­‐generaDonal	
  Harmony	
  	
  
Mutually	
  nega4ve	
  stereotypes	
  between	
  young	
  and	
  ol...
Care	
  for	
  the	
  Ageing	
  
As	
  the	
  popula4on	
  ages,	
  the	
  healthcare	
  sector	
  changes	
  the	
  way	
...
AdapDng	
  for	
  Ageing	
  PopulaDons	
  	
  
In	
  developed	
  countries,	
  80%	
  of	
  older	
  people	
  will	
  li...
MulD-­‐GeneraDonal	
  Travel	
  
Many	
  elect	
  to	
  travel	
  together	
  as	
  mul4-­‐genera4on	
  groups	
  of	
  bo...
SupporDng	
  the	
  Ageing	
  Workforce	
  
As	
  major	
  economies	
  suffer	
  from	
  increasing	
  dependency	
  ra4os...
DisrupDve	
  Voices,	
  DisrupDve	
  Impacts	
  
Senior	
  ac4vism	
  will	
  grow	
  with	
  the	
  demographic.	
  Polic...
Wisdom	
  Over	
  Experience	
  
Differences	
  between	
  working	
  styles	
  of	
  young	
  and	
  old	
  will	
  decrea...
Senior-­‐preneurship	
  Flourishes	
  
Products	
  and	
  services	
  aimed	
  at	
  the	
  ageing	
  popula4on	
  will	
 ...
HolisiDc	
  Health	
  Planning	
  
There	
  will	
  be	
  a	
  wholesale	
  shif	
  in	
  health	
  focus	
  from	
  short...
Living	
  While	
  Dying	
  
We	
  will	
  see	
  policy,	
  product	
  and	
  service	
  innova4ons	
  in	
  the	
  field	...
Re-­‐defining	
  Purpose	
  
Life-­‐plans	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  recognise	
  lengthy	
  ‘old-­‐age’,	
  	
  
driving	
  ...
Unequal	
  Futures	
  
New	
  technologies,	
  new	
  economic	
  opportuni4es	
  and	
  new	
  lifestyle	
  choices	
  fo...
Cross-­‐generaDonal	
  CollaboraDon	
  
Tapping	
  into	
  the	
  exper4se	
  of	
  part-­‐4me	
  older	
  workers	
  and	...
The	
  GeneraDon	
  Divide	
  
The	
  perspec4ve	
  gap	
  grows	
  between	
  the	
  expecta4ons	
  of	
  the	
  young,	
...
The	
  Healthcare	
  Debt	
  Time-­‐Bomb	
  
The	
  rising	
  cost	
  of	
  healthcare	
  results	
  in	
  ra4oning	
  and...
Parent	
  Care	
  
A	
  widening	
  recogni4on	
  of	
  connec4ng	
  across	
  genera4ons	
  drives	
  deeper	
  
awarenes...
Visualising	
  Future	
  Needs	
  
Predic4ve	
  analysis,	
  gene4c	
  profiling	
  and	
  credit	
  systems	
  combine	
  ...
Welfare	
  Reboot	
  
As	
  increasing	
  inequality	
  in	
  Europe	
  leads	
  to	
  social	
  unrest,	
  healthcare	
  ...
Living	
  Longer	
  -­‐	
  Not	
  Lonelier	
  
In	
  some	
  countries	
  we	
  shape	
  a	
  more	
  connected	
  world	
...
Ageing	
  in	
  Community	
  
Individuals,	
  families	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  healthcare	
  payers	
  desire	
  to	
  keep...
Caregiver	
  Marketplaces	
  
Recogni4on	
  of	
  the	
  trillion	
  dollar	
  informal	
  caregiver	
  economy	
  	
  
dr...
Commodifying	
  InDmacy	
  
	
  Increasing	
  isola4on	
  drives	
  adop4on	
  of	
  innova4ve	
  products	
  (such	
  as	...
Mainstreaming	
  of	
  Design	
  for	
  Ageing	
  
Consumer	
  products	
  increasingly	
  incorporate	
  the	
  perspec4v...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Future of Ageing - Insights from Discussions Building on an initial perspective by Prof. Laura Carstensen, Ken Smith and Dominika Jaworski at Stanford Center on Longevity

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Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by an initial perspective on the future of ageing by Prof. Laura Carstensen, Ken Smith and Dominika Jaworski at Stanford Center on Longevity. This includes insights from events already completed building on the starting point for the global future agenda futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org

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Future of Ageing - Insights from Discussions Building on an initial perspective by Prof. Laura Carstensen, Ken Smith and Dominika Jaworski at Stanford Center on Longevity

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Ageing      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Laura  Carstensen  |  Ken  Smith  |  Dominika  Jaworski  |  Stanford  Center  on  Longevity  
  2. 2. Context   The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Ageing  kicked  off  the     Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.     This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.   Ini4al   Perspec4ves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  3. 3. Lifespan  Limits      On  a  global  scale,  life  expectancies  in  developed  regions  are  con4nuing  to  rise   in  the  21st  century  and,  although  most  people  assume  that  there  are  biological   limits  on  life  span,  so  far  there  is  liUle  evidence  that  we  are  approaching  them.  
  4. 4. Age  Diversified  Workforces    The  demographic  changes  underway  are  fundamentally  altering     virtually  all  aspects  of  life  as  we  know  it.  Workforces  are  becoming     older  and  more  age  diversified  than  ever  in  history.    
  5. 5. Culture  Shi?    The  culture  that  guides  people  through  life  today  is  a  culture  that     evolved  around  shorter  lives.  The  urgent  challenge  now  is  to  create     cultures  that  support  people  through  ten  and  more  decades  of  life.    
  6. 6. Looking  Ahead    Rather  than  move  forward  by  happenstance,  we  need  strategic  thinking     about  how  to  best  use  added  decades  of  life.  Helping  individuals  and  na4ons     visualize  and  prepare  is  essen4al  to  ensure  that  longer  lives  are  high  quality.  
  7. 7. Societal  Benefit    85%  of  Americans  aged  65-­‐69  report  no  health-­‐based  limita4ons  on  paid     work  or  housework.  Similar  trends  are  evident  in  Europe.  Socie4es  that     find  ways  to  tap  older  peoples’  contribu4ons  will  benefit  greatly.      
  8. 8. Infeasible  ReDrement    For  many,  re4rement  at  age  65  is  economically  infeasible.     The  reality  is  that  few  workers  can  fund  a  30  year  re4rement     with  a  40  year  career.  Neither  can  socie4es.    
  9. 9. Increased  Wellbeing    Both  paid  and  unpaid  work  are  associated  with  enhanced  well-­‐being,     delayed  disability,  decreased  mortality  risk,  and  onset  of     fewer  diseases  and  associated  func4onal  impairments.  
  10. 10. Working  Longer    For  those  who  have  inadequate  re4rement  savings,  the  most  obvious     solu4on  is  to  work  longer.  One  major  poten4al  barrier,  however,     is  that  employers  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.    
  11. 11. Cost  of  Older  Workers    The  cost  of  older  workers  is  a  real  issue  for  employers.  Offering  bridge  jobs  or   flexible  work  arrangements  such  as  flex  hours  and  part-­‐4me  work  will  allow   employers  to  retain  the  exper4se  of  older  workers  while  reducing  costs.    
  12. 12. The  Bigger  Opportunity    Predic4ons  about  economic  disaster  change  to  discussions  of  economic   growth  if  people  remain  produc4ve  into  advanced  ages.  We  are  experiencing   one  of  the  greatest  opportuni4es  to  improve  quality  of  life  at  all  ages.    
  13. 13. Life  Worth  Living     We  shif  the  system  from  one  focused  on  care  with  the  needs  of  the  ins4tu4on   a  priority  to  one  focused  on  enhancing  quality  of  life  and  dignity.  There  is  a  rise   in  pallia4ve  care  and  societal  par4cipa4on  giving  more  meaning  to  later  life.  
  14. 14. Intra  and  Inter-­‐generaDonal  Harmony     Mutually  nega4ve  stereotypes  between  young  and  old  and  inequality  are     replaced  with  a  growing  interest  in  youth  serving  the  elderly.  The  wisdom  of   elders  is  again  respected  and  sought  by  younger  genera4ons.  
  15. 15. Care  for  the  Ageing   As  the  popula4on  ages,  the  healthcare  sector  changes  the  way  in  which  it   delivers  support,  with  more  coordina4on  among  service  providers  and  more     in-­‐home  care.  There  is  also  a  frank  conversa4on  about  people’s  “right  to  die”.    
  16. 16. AdapDng  for  Ageing  PopulaDons     In  developed  countries,  80%  of  older  people  will  live  in  ci4es  by  2050,  while   ci4es  in  developing  countries  will  house  25%  of  the  older  popula4on.  Planners   are  adap4ng  urban  environments  to  support  healthy  ageing  of  popula4ons.  
  17. 17. MulD-­‐GeneraDonal  Travel   Many  elect  to  travel  together  as  mul4-­‐genera4on  groups  of  both  families  and   mixed  friends.  They  look  for  vaca4ons  that  keep  everyone  happy  and,  as  such,   stress  many  systems  based  on  delivering  segmented  experiences.  
  18. 18. SupporDng  the  Ageing  Workforce   As  major  economies  suffer  from  increasing  dependency  ra4os,  the  challenge    of  suppor4ng  an  increasingly  older  workforce  demands  rethinking  of  life-­‐long   learning  and  broader  acceptance  of  the  cost  of  part-­‐4me  flexible  jobs.  
  19. 19. DisrupDve  Voices,  DisrupDve  Impacts   Senior  ac4vism  will  grow  with  the  demographic.  Policy  will  increasingly  reflect   the  will  of  older  people:  especially  in  housing/communi4es,  health  and   employment,  leading  to  intergenera4onal  tensions  over  choices  made.  
  20. 20. Wisdom  Over  Experience   Differences  between  working  styles  of  young  and  old  will  decrease.  Older   workers  will  also  become  flexible,  auto-­‐didacts  exploring  mul4ple-­‐careers,  but   with  a  unique  proposi4on  to  employers  valuing  wisdom  over  experience.     We  have  one  similar  to  this  already.  I  thought   our  group  added  depth  and  nuance  but  not   necessarily  novelty  
  21. 21. Senior-­‐preneurship  Flourishes   Products  and  services  aimed  at  the  ageing  popula4on  will  proliferate.  But   seniors  will  also  be  ac4vely  involved  in  innova4on  themselves,  developing   new  economic  opportuni4es  for  all,  both  within  and  beyond  the  ageing  space.  
  22. 22. HolisiDc  Health  Planning   There  will  be  a  wholesale  shif  in  health  focus  from  short-­‐term  problem-­‐ solving  to  long-­‐term,  healthy-­‐life  planning  and  management,  with  GPs   (ini4ally)  shifing  their  role  to  become  whole-­‐life  health  coaches.  
  23. 23. Living  While  Dying   We  will  see  policy,  product  and  service  innova4ons  in  the  field  of  end-­‐of-­‐life   planning.  Businesses  and  professions  will  come  to  recognise  the  need  to   provide  more  (end-­‐of)  life-­‐style  choices  to  individuals  and  consumers.  
  24. 24. Re-­‐defining  Purpose   Life-­‐plans  will  need  to  recognise  lengthy  ‘old-­‐age’,     driving  a  search  for  purpose  into  and  beyond  the  tradi4onal,     but  arbitrary,  no4on  of  re4rement.  
  25. 25. Unequal  Futures   New  technologies,  new  economic  opportuni4es  and  new  lifestyle  choices  for   older  people  will  be  very  unevenly  distributed,  leading  to  extreme  inequali4es   within  and  between  ageing  popula4ons.  
  26. 26. Cross-­‐generaDonal  CollaboraDon   Tapping  into  the  exper4se  of  part-­‐4me  older  workers  and  the  re4red  is   supported  both  by  the  elderly,  who  seek  to  remain  ac4ve  and  make  a   difference,  and  the  young  who  can  help  share  and  apply  their  knowledge.    
  27. 27. The  GeneraDon  Divide   The  perspec4ve  gap  grows  between  the  expecta4ons  of  the  young,     who  are  increasingly  global  in  their  outlook,  and  the  more     tradi4onal  views  of  more  senior  and  experienced  colleagues.    
  28. 28. The  Healthcare  Debt  Time-­‐Bomb   The  rising  cost  of  healthcare  results  in  ra4oning  and  the  end  of  universal   healthcare.  Individual  health  budgets,  preven4on  technology,  migra4on  and   working  longer  all  increase  as  new  approaches  seek  to  improve  efficiency.    
  29. 29. Parent  Care   A  widening  recogni4on  of  connec4ng  across  genera4ons  drives  deeper   awareness  of  social  and  economic  benefits.  Organisa4ons  modify  employment   prac4ces:  Leave  for  ‘parent  care’  is  as  important  as  4me-­‐off  for  child-­‐care.  
  30. 30. Visualising  Future  Needs   Predic4ve  analysis,  gene4c  profiling  and  credit  systems  combine  to  give  us   sight  of  our  personal  future  care  needs.  We  adjust  behaviours;  we  are  aware  of   long-­‐term  impacts  of  our  ac4ons  and  take  ownership  of  personal  care  budgets.  
  31. 31. Welfare  Reboot   As  increasing  inequality  in  Europe  leads  to  social  unrest,  healthcare  and   welfare  systems  are  stressed  and  rethought.  Ideological  views  are  replaced  by   pragma4c  solu4ons  that  recognise  the  fundamentals  for  an  ageing  popula4on.  
  32. 32. Living  Longer  -­‐  Not  Lonelier   In  some  countries  we  shape  a  more  connected  world  in  which  older  people  feel   significant  and  worth  something.  Physical  solu4ons  such  as  co-­‐located  care  homes  and   crèches  recreate  historical  connec4ons  between  the  ageing  and  wider  society.        
  33. 33. Ageing  in  Community   Individuals,  families  as  well  as  healthcare  payers  desire  to  keep  older     people  living  healthy  and  independent  for  as  long  as  possible.  This  requires   upgraded,  intelligent  housing  and  smart,  connected  infrastructure.  
  34. 34. Caregiver  Marketplaces   Recogni4on  of  the  trillion  dollar  informal  caregiver  economy     drives  new  solu4ons  aimed  at  educa4ng,  suppor4ng  and     empowering  family  caregivers.    
  35. 35. Commodifying  InDmacy    Increasing  isola4on  drives  adop4on  of  innova4ve  products  (such  as     social  robots),  new  services  and  business  models  that  help  people     meet  physical  and  emo4onal  needs  for  connec4on.    
  36. 36. Mainstreaming  of  Design  for  Ageing   Consumer  products  increasingly  incorporate  the  perspec4ve     of  older  users  into  the  design  process  –  and  in  so  doing,     make  them  simpler  and  easier  to  use  for  all.    
  37. 37. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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