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Future of Cities - 2017 Summary

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Future of Cities: Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World

Following on from the main 2015 Future Agenda programme, last year we undertook additional Future of Cities events in Singapore, Beirut and Guayaquil. Exploring not only key current challenges and aspirations but also emerging issues, the insights from these and other discussions have all now been synthesized into a single summary. This document brings together views from a wide range of experts from the 2016 workshops as well as previous events in London, Vienna, Dubai, Delhi and Christchurch. Together it provides an overview of three common challenges, three shared ambitions and three emerging concerns that were highlighted in our multiple discussions.

Given the complex, interconnected nature of the drivers of change in cities, it is no surprise that there are hundreds of different reports already published exploring future trends either globally or locally. While this summary may overlap with a number of these reports, it is not intended to be a single answer to the future cities question. Rather it is, we hope, a mapping of the landscape, highlighting the core issues raised for today and tomorrow and pointing to potential areas for further exploration.

As we go forward with further workshops during 2017 planned in London, Toronto, Dubai and Mumbai, we will be delving deeper into some of the key issues, challenging assumptions and hopefully identify new approaches and sources of innovation. We will also be sharing a full report that adds extra context and detail gained from both the insights shared to date and the new ones added during 2017.

If you would like to join in some of the forthcoming events, do let us know. Equally if you have any comments and feedback on the views in this summary, please do feel free add them into the mix via slide-share, linked-in, twitter or email. This is an initial summary that will have gaps and alternative views that may well need modification in order to better represent a global view. We thank all those who have given up time to contribute to the workshops to date and to all those will be adding in their views going forward.

www.futureagenda.org
@futureagenda

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Future of Cities - 2017 Summary

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Ci-es    Summary  of  Insights  from  Mul3ple  Expert  Discussions  Around  the  World    February  2017   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  
  2. 2. Context   Ci3es  are  where  innova3on  happens,  where  ideas  form  and  where  economic   growth  largely  stems.  They  are  where  most  of  us  live  and  are  also  where   significant  problems  can  emerge  as  well  as  where  challenges  can  be  magnified.        Context  
  3. 3. Future  of  Ci-es  Discussions   As  part  of  the  global  Future  Agenda  programme,  during  2015  and  2016     we  ran  several  ‘future  of  ci3es’  workshops  in  key  loca3ons.  Complemented     by  over  100  other  events,  these  have  provided  mul3ple  insights  on  the  topic.      Context  
  4. 4. Key  Global  Insights   Although  some  points  were  specific  to  individual  loca3ons,  a  number  of     issues  were  unified  across  all  our  discussions.  We  found  three  common   challenges,  three  shared  future  ambi3ons  and  three  emerging  concerns.     Common   Challenges   Managing   Migra3on   Countering   Inequality   Scaling   Sustainably   Shared   Ambi-ons   Healthy     Ci3es   Accessible     Ci3es   Intelligent     Ci3es   Emerging   Concerns   Safe   Ci3es   Resilient     Ci3es   Collabora3ve     Compe33on      Summary  
  5. 5. Purpose  of  Summary   Ahead  of  more  workshops  and  the  publica3on  of  a  detailed  report,  this   document  provides  an  overview  of  what  we  heard  from  the  expert  discussions   undertaken  around  the  world  during  2015/16.  It  has  three  objec3ves.     Reflect   •  To  reflect  what  informed  people  in  varied  countries  think   is  most  important   Link   •  To  link  these  thoughts  to  some  of  the  research  that  has   already  been  done   Prompt   •  To  prompt  further  debate  on  some  gaps  and  issues  that   seem  as  yet  unresolved      Summary  
  6. 6. Common  Challenges   Across  our  discussions  a  number  of  issues  were  raised  repeatedly  that     focused  on  three  significant,  inter-­‐related  concerns  for  the  majority.     These  are  common  challenges  impac3ng  many  of  the  world’s  ci3es.   Common   Challanges   Managing   Migra-on   Countering   Inequality   Sustainable   Scaling      
  7. 7. Managing  Migra-on   Growing  migra3on  to  ci3es  in  most  regions  is  set  to  be  one  of  the  defining   shiZs  taking  place  for  the  rest  of  the  century.  Over  the  next  30  years  the  urban   popula3on  in  the  developing  world  is  set  to  grow  by  an  extra  2  billion.        Managing  Migra1on  
  8. 8. Pace  of  Change   The  scale  of  migra3on  is  driving  huge  social,  cultural  and  poli3cal  change:     some  governments  have  become  doub^ul  of  their  ability  to  cope.  Many  have   concluded  that  they  ought  to  slow  the  process  down  or  disperse  the  problem.        Managing  Migra1on  
  9. 9. Posi-ve  Migra-on   Many  economists  and  some  poli3cians  agree  that,  especially  for  countries     with  ageing  popula3ons,  immigra3on  has  a  posi3ve  economic  impact.     But  only  a  few  countries  are  really  open  about  the  benefits.          Managing  Migra1on  
  10. 10. Refugee  Influx     The  inflow  of  refugees  from  Syria  to  Lebanon  has  passed  1.5m.  Added  to  the   500,000  Pales3nian  refugees  already  in  the  country,  within  a  total  na3onal   popula3on  of  only  6m  there  is  now  1  refugee  for  every  2  Lebanese  na3onals.        Managing  Migra1on  
  11. 11. Internal  Migra-on   In  many  na3ons  internal  migra3on  completely  dwarfs  interna3onal  migra3on.   32  people  per  hour  are  moving  into  Shanghai,  39  into  Kinshasa  and  Jakarta,     42  into  Mumbai  and  Karachi,  50  into  Dhaka  and  58  into  Lagos.      Managing  Migra1on  
  12. 12. Informal  Urbaniza-on   A  third  of  the  global  urban  popula3on,  and  most  of  the  migrants,  now  live  in   unplanned  slums,  gheeos  and  townships  which  typically  suffer  from  poor   quality,  overcrowded  housing  and  restricted  access  to  water  and  electricity.      Managing  Migra1on  
  13. 13. Coping  Strategies   Ci3es  are  being  forced  to  rethink  how  they  plan  their  infrastructure  and   services  to  cope  with  fast-­‐rising  and  yet  some3mes  sta3s3cally  invisible   popula3ons.  In  some,  policies  are  trying  to  halt  rural-­‐urban  migra3on.        Managing  Migra1on  
  14. 14. Countering  Inequality   Widening  differences  in  access  to  housing,  transport,  sanita3on,  healthcare,   educa3on  and  jobs  will  con3nue  to  extend  the  gap  between  rich  and  poor.   Inequality  is  rising  in  many  ci3es  independent  of  the  numbers  of  new  arrivals.        Countering  Inequality  
  15. 15. Inequality  a  Mainstream  Issue   Inequality  has  become  a  mainstream  poli3cal  issue  as  par3es  argue  about  the   causes  as  well  as  the  limits  that  society  can  accommodate.  Almost  all  of  the   problems  at  the  boeom  of  the  social  ladder  are  greater  in  unequal  socie3es.      Countering  Inequality  
  16. 16. A  Rich  Country  Problem   Urban  inequality  is  not  simply  a  developing  world  problem:  The  US  has  one  of   the  highest  rates  of  child  poverty  while  New  York,  Los  Angeles  and  London  all   have  high  GINI  coefficients  -­‐  the  most  commonly  used  measure  of  inequality.        Countering  Inequality  
  17. 17. The  Influence  /  Need  Gap     Many  of  the  people  dependent  on  the  provisions  of  government  are  not  those   who  pay  or  influence  decisions.  As  such,  as  the  inequality  gap  grows,  those   making  decisions  are  increasingly  out  of  touch  with  society’s  real  needs.        Countering  Inequality  
  18. 18. The  Top  1%     The  wealthy  have  a  dispropor3onate  ability  to  influence  government  and   therefore  urban  design.  Consequently  the  shape  and  development  of  ci3es     can  oZen  be  the  result  of  the  needs  of  the  elite  rather  than  the  majority.        Countering  Inequality  
  19. 19. AMrac-ng  the  Highly  Skilled   Aerac3ng  highly  skilled  workers  to  a  city  oZen  leads  to  improvement  in     local  ameni3es.  But  bringing  highly  skilled  workers  to  an  area  is  not     enough  to  guarantee  high  wages;  the  right  firms  must  come  too.      Countering  Inequality  
  20. 20. Designing  a  Fairer  City     Increasing  social  housing  alongside  limi3ng  popula3on  density  and  crea3ng   beeer  public  spaces  can  make  a  difference.  Providing  wider  access  to  basic   services  such  as  banking  and  healthcare  also  helps  counter  inequality.          Countering  Inequality  
  21. 21. Joined  Up  Responses   Given  the  inter-­‐rela3onships  between  financial  inequality  and  unequal  access   to  transport,  healthcare,  educa3on  and  the  Internet,  urban  policy  has  to  be   integrated  across  mul3ple  silos.  This  demands  far  greater  joined  up  ac3on.        Countering  Inequality  
  22. 22. Sustainable  Scaling   Urban  seelements  will  increase  to  more  than  3m  km2  by  2050:  Never  before   have  we  seen  such  fast  scaling  of  urban  environments.  If  we  are  to  avoid   replica3ng  the  errors  of  the  past,  then  ci3es  must  be  planned  sustainably.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  23. 23. Disconnected  Sprawl   Many  of  the  world’s  fastest  growing  ci3es  are  becoming  looser  and     less  connected  at  the  edges.  Sprawl  is  significantly  increasing     urban  footprints,  decreasing  density  and  reducing  open  space.      Sustainable  Scaling  
  24. 24. Africa  Growth   Africa  is  the  world’s  fastest  urbanising  con3nent.  Some  ci3es  are  expanding     at  rates  of  more  than  7%  per  year.  Unsurprisingly  many  governments     find  it  difficult  to  provide  residents  with  even  the  most  basic  services.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  25. 25. Planning  Ahead   Retrofimng  roads,  u3li3es  and  services  is  far  more  expensive  than  planning  for   them  in  advance:  fast-­‐growing  ci3es  need  to  establish  expansion  areas  that  can   accommodate  growth,  plan  and  secure  the  rights  for  roads  and  public  spaces.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  26. 26. Dense  Ci-es   Experts  suggest  that  densely  populated,  efficient  ci3es  like  Paris  and     Hong  Kong  are  the  poten3al  blueprints  for  sustainable  places  to  live;  much     beeer  than  the  distributed  sprawls  such  as  Los  Angeles  and  Mexico  City.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  27. 27. Satellite  Ci-es   In  many  regions  the  growth  of  satellite  ci3es  and  networks  of  midi-­‐ci3es  is     seen  as  a  preferred  route  to  more  singular  mega-­‐city  development.     Connected  by  fast  infrastructure,  these  can  act  collec3vely  economically.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  28. 28. Mega-­‐City  Master-­‐Plans   Several  metropolises  in  Asia  and  the  Middle  East  are  effec3vely  being  built   from  scratch,  so  there  is  an  opportunity  to  get  scaling  right  from  the  start.  To   avoid  more  sprawl,  they  need  shared,  long-­‐term  and  detailed  master  plans.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  29. 29. Shared  Ambi-ons   In  exploring  how  to  improve  their  urban  environments  and  the  lives  of     ci3zens,  many  ci3es  share  a  number  of  common  ambi3ons  for  the  future.   Three  inter-­‐related  goals  were  highlighted  across  most  of  our  discussions.   Shared   Ambi-ons   Healthy   Ci3es   Accessible   Ci3es   Intelligent   Ci3es      
  30. 30. Healthy  Ci-es   A  common  core  aim  is  to  reduce  pollu3on,  especially  air  pollu3on,     improve  access  to  clean  water,  and  install  beeer  sanita3on  and     healthcare  provision  so  that  fewer  die  from  preventable  causes.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  31. 31. Air  Pollu-on   The  most  detec3ble  health  threat  to  ci3es  today  is  declining  air  quality.     Delhi’s  air  is  15  3mes  more  polluted  than  the  WHO  safe  maximum.  Air   pollu3on  in  China  kills  about  4,000  people  every  day  –  17%  of  all  deaths.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  32. 32. Rich  Country  Air  Quality   Some  of  the  most  toxic  air  today  is  found  in  the  UAE.     Although  air  quality  is  gradually  improving  in  the  US,  in  Europe     over  460,000  people  a  year  die  prematurely  because  of  air  pollu3on.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  33. 33. C40  Ac-on   Led  by  the  mayors  of  C40  ci3es  such  as  Paris  and  Mexico  City  there  is  a   concerted  effort  underway  to  reduce  emissions.  By  introducing  bans  for  diesel   and  incen3ves  for  electric  vehicles  by  2025,  they  aim  to  change  the  market.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  34. 34. Eco  Civilisa-on   Poten3ally  most  significant  on  a  global  scale  is  China’s  Eco-­‐Civiliza3on  ini3a3ve   -­‐  many  see  this  as  a  game-­‐changer.  China  will  take  the  lead  on  climate  change   and  reducing  urban  air  pollu3on  and  so  set  the  standards  for  others.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  35. 35. Polluted  Water   Water  pollu3on  is  another  major  challenge  to  healthy  city  living.  Poorly  treated   sewage  can  be  low  in  dissolved  oxygen  and  high  in  pollutants.  Groundwater   can  be  contaminated  from  garbage  dumps,  toxic  waste  and  chemical  storage.      Healthy  Ci1es  
  36. 36. Known  Solu-ons   Many  of  the  solu3ons  lie  not  only  in  cleaning  up  water  supplies  but  also  in   encouraging  industry  and  ci3zens  to  use  more  recycled  water.  Simple,  proven   ac3ons  can  transform  the  water  supply  and  massively  reduce  contamina3on.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  37. 37. Waste  Management   Dhaka,  Delhi  and  Port-­‐au-­‐Prince  are  three  of  the  worst  for  poor  waste   management.  Globally  the  standard  bearers  for  minimum  landfill  include   Switzerland  and  San  Francisco.  Regula3on  drives  behavioural  change.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  38. 38. Urban  Obesity   Mass  urbanisa3on,  reduced  ac3vity  and  poor  diet  are  all  accelera3ng  obesity.   Across  India  and  Africa  migra3on  from  rural  to  urban  areas  is  associated  with   an  increase  in  obesity  and  is  a  dispropor3onate  burden  on  the  poor.              Healthy  Ci1es  
  39. 39. Protec-ng  Public  Spaces   Urban  planning  has  a  role  to  play.  Designing  ci3es  to  encourage  more     outdoor  ac3vity  is  one  area  of  observable  ac3vity  as  governments  are   pressured  to  ensure  that  public  spaces  are  created  and  retained.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  40. 40. Agreed  Benefits   Encouraging  a  healthier  lifestyle  can  improve  urban  design  and  consequently   result  in  reduced  pressure  on  healthcare,  beeer  community  resilience,  and   overall  offer  improved  life  expectancy.  No  new  technologies  are  required.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  41. 41. Accessible  Ci-es   A  key  ambi3on  for  many  is  to  plan  ci3es  for  people  not  cars,  providing     beeer  public  transport,  new  cycle  ways  and  crea3ng  more  walkable  areas,   while  also  encouraging  more  integra3on  rather  than  segrega3on.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  42. 42. People  Not  Cars   We  live  in  a  world  where  the  majority  of  our  ci3es  have  been  designed   for  cars  first  and  people  second.  Many  believe  that  urban  life  could  be     beeer  without  cars  –  or  certainly  without  so  many  of  them.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  43. 43. BeMer  Op-ons   Walking  or  riding  a  bike  is  healthier  and  safer  and  public  transport  is  frequently   cheaper  than  the  car.  Copenhagen  and  Amsterdam,  oZen  seen  as  Europe’s   most  sustainable  ci3es,  are  leaders  in  suppor3ng  non-­‐motorized  transport.      Accessible  Ci1es  
  44. 44. Pro  Cycle  and  Pedestrian   Ci3es  are  shiZing  their  aeen3on  to  making  it  easier  to  walk,  cycle  and  play  on   their  streets.  Central  roads  are  being  converted  into  pedestrian  promenades,   others  flanked  with  cycle  lanes  and  speed  limits  are  being  slashed.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  45. 45. Peak  Car?   For  most  conurba3ons  today,  the  future  threatens  to  be  one  with  more  cars.     In  many  ci3es  the  lack  of  good  public  transport,  coupled  with  rising  incomes     in  some  places,  is  pushing  up  the  use  of  private  vehicles  but  to  what  limit?        Accessible  Ci1es  
  46. 46. More  Public  Transport   A  good  public  transport  system  makes  a  city  more  accessible  and  efficient.     By  2030,  80%  of  Singapore  households  will  be  within  a  10-­‐minute  walk  of  a   train  sta3on  -­‐  75%  of  journeys  will  be  on  public  systems.          Accessible  Ci1es  
  47. 47. Public  Private  Partnerships   In  Medellin,  Colombia,  the  government  is  increasingly  collabora3ng     with  business  to  improve  the  ins3tu3onal  fabric  as  well  as  core    infrastructure  -­‐  through  the  building  of  new  cable  cars  and  metros.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  48. 48. Walkable  Ci-es   Walkable  ci3es  are  safer,  more  aerac3ve,  more  inclusive  and  easier  to  govern.   High  profile  developments  like  the  Cheonggyecheon  River  in  Seoul  have   transformed  walkability  …  but  small  changes  can  make  a  difference  too.      Accessible  Ci1es  
  49. 49. Local  Clusters   Local  hubs  for  those  in  knowledge-­‐based  sectors  has  long  been  proposed  as  a   means  of  minimising  the  daily  commute.  ‘Work,  live,  play’  clusters  in  ci3es   allow  residents  to  access  different  ac3vi3es  all  embedded  in  one  area.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  50. 50. Ci-es  for  Ageing   In  developed  countries  80%  of  older  people  are  expected  to  live  in  ci3es     by  2050.  They  need  con3nue  to  play  an  ac3ve  role  in  the  community  and     not  become  isolated.  We  need  integra3on  rather  than  segrega3on.      Accessible  Ci1es  
  51. 51. Increasing  Accessibility   Many  planning  challenges  in  ci3es  without  extensive  public  transport     centre  on  using  beeer  low-­‐cost  systems  to  improve  access  -­‐  while  not   constraining  broader  movement  of  people  and  goods  by  vehicles.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  52. 52. Intelligent  Ci-es   Increasingly  equipped  with  digital  technologies  and  ‘big  data’  many     ci3es  are  now  making  buildings,  infrastructure  and  even  ci3zens     smarter  -­‐  and  therefore  making  themselves  more  “intelligent”.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  53. 53. Smart  City  Ideal   Ideally,  sensors  integrate  with  real-­‐3me  monitoring  systems,  collect     data  from  ci3zens  and  devices  that  is  then  processed  and  analyzed.     The  informa3on  and  knowledge  gathered  are  used  to  tackle  inefficiency.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  54. 54. Smart  City  India   India  is  inves3ng  $15bn  to  develop  100  smart  ci3es,  aiming  to  improve     basic  infrastructure  by  providing  good  water  and  power  supplies  as  well     as  beeer  public  transport  and  also  significantly  enhance  IT  connec3vity.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  55. 55. Corporate  Partnerships   In  recent  years  we  have  seen  progress  on  the  smart  ci3es  ambi3on    –  much  of  which  has  been  focused  on  collabora3on  with  some  key   mul3na3onals  to  create  municipal  /  corporate  partnerships.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  56. 56. IBM  |  Rio  de  Janeiro   IBM’s  Smarter  Ci3es  /  Smarter  Planet  ini3a3ve  has  been  embraced     by  mayors  in  many  key  ci3es:  Massive  sensor  networks,  cloud-­‐based    storage  and  predic3ve  analy3cs  have  all  been  coming  to  the  fore.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  57. 57. Intel  |  San  Jose   Intel’s  collabora3on  with  the  city  of  San  Jose  is  a  demonstrator  of   the  capability  of  the  ‘Internet  of  Things’  focuses  on  improving  air  quality,    noise  pollu3on  and  traffic  flows  via  a  more  connected  infrastructure.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  58. 58. Siemens  |  Masdar   Although  behind  schedule,  Masdar  is  s3ll  aiming  to  be  one  of  the  most   sustainable  and  smart  ci3es  on  the  planet.  Key  partnerships  with  Siemens     are  focused  on  opportuni3es  such  as  more  effec3ve,  low  energy  systems.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  59. 59. Cisco  |  Songdo   Songdo  in  Korea  has  embraced  Cisco’s  ‘Smart+Connected’  view  of  the  city.   Ubiquitous  data  sharing,  automated  buildings,  high-­‐speed  networks     and  pervasive  interac3on  are  all  part  of  the  connected  blueprint.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  60. 60. Realis-c  Expecta-ons   Some  see  that  the  smart  city  is  not  a  seamless  web  of  integrated  and  joined-­‐up   technologies  and  probably  never  will  be.  Smart  ci3es  could  be  just  as  much   about  beeer  governance  and  urban  planning  than  about  integrated  machines.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  61. 61. Smartphone  Impact   Digital  pla^orms  can  bring  people  together  and  collaborate  to  ‘fix’  problems   and  so  create  a  more  efficient  system.  Smartphones  in  par3cular  allow  us  to   interact  with  and  beeer  understand  the  environments  within  which  we  inhabit.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  62. 62. London  –  Open  Data     Once  informa3on  is  free  and  open,  then  different  par3es  and  interests  can   collaborate.  London  has  more  open  public  data  sets  than  any  other  European   city.  It  is  a  leading  centre  for  more  intelligent  use  of  shared  informa3on.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  63. 63. New  York  –  Engaged  Ci-zens   As  the  pioneer  in  providing  open  connec3vity  for  all,  New  York  has  been   a  hot-­‐spot  for  the  development  of  ci3zen  based  networks:  The  Bryant   Park  Restora3on  Corpora3on  was  one  of  the  first  catalysts  for  change.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  64. 64. Big  Data  Analysis   The  LAPD’s  algorithms  analyse  mul3ple  data  streams  to  iden3fy  areas  with     high  current  probabili3es  for  certain  types  of  crime.  Insights  are  streamed     into  patrol  cars  who  proac3vely  go  to  these  loca3ons  –  and  so  prevent  crime.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  65. 65. Responsive  Ci-es   Pervasive  digital  systems  that  layer  some  ci3es  are  already  transforming     urban  life  for  some.  Once  this  informa3on  is  beeer  shared  between  planners,   designers  and  the  public,  then  we  can  maybe  collec3vely  shape  future  ci3es.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  66. 66. Smarter  Ci-zens   By  sharing  more  and  beeer  informa3on  in  engaging  more  with     the  people  who  live  in  them,  ci3es  and  their  ci3zens  become  smarter     and  the  overall  intelligence  of  the  urban  environment  itself  increases.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  67. 67. Emerging  Concerns   Looking  forward,  many  see  three  themes  that  are  emerging  and  increasingly   significant  concerns  for  ci3es.  Although  not  yet  universal,  they  are  major     shiZs  that  are  demanding  new  thinking  about  urban  design  and  policy.   Emerging   Concerns   Safe   Ci3es   Resilient   Ci3es   Collabora3ve   Compe--on      
  68. 68. Safe  Ci-es   Whether  to  prevent  terrorism,  provide  defense  against  more  infrastructure-­‐ focused  cyber  aeacks  or  dealing  with  increased  inequality,  the  need  for     urban  environments  to  beeer  protect  their  ci3zens  is  accelera3ng.      Safe  Ci1es  
  69. 69. Safest  Ci-es   Tokyo  is  rated  as  the  world’s  safest  city  closely  followed  by  Singapore.     However,  while  rich  na3on  ci3es  are  generally  higher  than  the  average  in     safe  city  rankings,  wealth  and  resources  are  no  guarantee  of  urban  safety.          Safe  Ci1es  
  70. 70. Counter  Terrorism   With  threats  rising  globally,  counter-­‐terrorism  architecture  is  increasingly     evident  in  some  ci3es.  Designing  solu3ons  that  have  impact  but  without   turning  urban  districts  into  uninvi3ng  fortresses  is  however  a  fine  balance.      Safe  Ci1es  
  71. 71. Foiling  Cyber  AMacks   Many  ci3es  are  wide  open  to  cyber  aeacks  and  the  IoT  will  accelerate  this.   Most  vulnerable  for  urban  areas  are  u3li3es  and  especially  energy  supply     and  water  treatment.  Taking  down  a  power  grid  is  a  worst-­‐case  scenario.          Safe  Ci1es  
  72. 72. Crime  Hot  Spots   Urban  environments  provide  triggers  for  crime.  Hot  spots  occur  across   city  and  local  centres  and  residen3al  areas  that  are  characterised  by     poor  informal  social  control  resul3ng  from  weak  social  cohesion.          Safe  Ci1es  
  73. 73. Maintaining  Social  Cohesion   Poor  social  cohesion  drives  increased  personal  crime.  Addressing  this  is   another  top  priority  as  many  ci3es  develop  plans  to  overcome  inequality  and   improve  health.  However  in  a  good  number,  results  are  not  being  delivered.      Safe  Ci1es  
  74. 74. Resilient  Ci-es   Redesigning  and  building  new  infrastructures  to  withstand  the  likely  impacts     of  climate  change  and  more  natural  disasters  is  a  fast-­‐growing  concern.   Adapta3on  is  currently  the  priority  over  longer-­‐term  mi3ga3on.      Resilient  Ci1es  
  75. 75. Climate  Change  Impact   No  one  really  knows  exactly  what  2,  3  or  4oC  of  climate  change  means  but   many  expect  drought  and  hurricanes  to  increase  in  frequency  and  strength.   Seasons  will  shiZ.  The  biggest  issue  to  prepare  for  seems  to  be  flooding.          Resilient  Ci1es  
  76. 76. At-­‐Risk  Ci-es   The  ten  most  ‘at  risk  ci3es’  from  climate  change  globally  already  have  a   combined  popula3on  of  over  150m  and  are  projected  to  have  grown  by  a   further  50%  by  2025  –  Few,  if  any,  will  be  insured.      Resilient  Ci1es  
  77. 77. Flooded  Ci-es    The  vast  majority  of  our  ci3es  are  not  prepared  for  flooding.     22  of  the  top  50  wealthiest  ci3es  are  prone  to  serious  flooding  that  will     also  impact  housing,  poverty,  cost  of  energy  and  social  breakdown.        Resilient  Ci1es  
  78. 78. Preparing  for  Resilience   The  opportunity  is  to  rethink  infrastructure  in  terms  of  resilience,  and     not  just  rebuild  it.  Amtudes  will  shiZ  considerably  and  a  more  prevalent   view  around  beeer  preparing  for  resilience  will  become  clear.      Resilient  Ci1es  
  79. 79. The  City  Resilience  Framework   Developed  by  Arup  with  support  from  the  Rockefeller  Founda3on,     The  City  Resilience  Framework  provides  a  lens  to  understand  the     complexity  of  ci3es  and  the  drivers  that  contribute  to  their  resilience.        Resilient  Ci1es  
  80. 80. Resilience  Efforts   New  approaches  are  being  fast-­‐tracked:  These  include  the  crea3on  of     Chief  Resilience  Officers  to  coordinate  each  city's  resiliency  efforts  to  the     crea3on  of  resilience  bonds  to  generate  capital  for  risk  reduc3on  projects.        Resilient  Ci1es  
  81. 81. Collabora-ve  Compe--on   Ci3es  have  always  competed  with  each  other.  This  is  not  about  to  change     any  3me  soon.  But  with  many  shared  challenges  now  being  aired,  there  is     also  an  evident  increase  in  the  level  of  inter-­‐city  collabora3on  taking  place.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  82. 82. Growing  Compe--on   The  big  ci3es  of  today  and  tomorrow  operate  in  a  constant  condi3on  of   compe33on.  Many  compete  for  posi3oning  and  aerac3veness  through   strategic  city  branding.  This  compe33on  among  metropolises  is  intense.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  83. 83. Na-onal  and  Interna-onal  Rivalry   There  is  growing  compe33on  between  ci3es  to  aeract  high-­‐value,  high-­‐wage   businesses  in  services  such  as  research  and  design,  new  technologies,  financial   and  media  industries.  This  is  seen  at  both  na3onal  and  interna3onal  levels.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  84. 84. Quality  of  Life  As  A  Source  of  Compe--on   We  can  expect  new  forms  of  compe33on  to  emerge.  As  quality  of  life    becomes  an  important  source  of  compe33ve  advantage,  al  ci3es  will     have  to  provide  a  clean,  green  and  safe  environment  for  their  ci3zens.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  85. 85. Greater  Collabora-on   Inter-­‐city  collabora3on  is  now  top  of  many  a  mayoral  office  agenda.     Sharing,  learning  and  partnering  on  the  big  issues  for  the  future  are     primary  concerns  for  increasingly  influen3al  networks  such  as  the  C40.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  86. 86. Ci-es  not  Countries   The  role  of  ci3es  as  problem  solvers  is  rising  while  other  government  bodies   and  na3on  states  are  increasingly  being  considered  obsolete  or  dysfunc3onal.     Ci3es  frequently  have  greater  goodwill  and  beeer  mindsets  for  collabora3on.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  87. 87. Coope--on   In  business  simultaneous  compe33on  and  coopera3on  is  a  key  strategy  that   goes  beyond  the  conven3onal  rules  of  compe33on  and  coopera3on  to  achieve   advantages  of  both.  For  ci3es,  parallel  approaches  are  now  emerging.          Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  88. 88. Broadening  Compe-tor  Collabora-on   Across  Europe,  Asia  and  the  US,  ci3es  used  to  compe33on  are  collabora3ng     on  business  partnerships,  tourism  and  co-­‐branding  for  investment.     More  widespread  coope33on  is  going  to  be  a  core  part  of  the  future  mix.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  89. 89. Moving  Forward      Moving  Forward  
  90. 90. Future  Ques-ons   As  we  take  this  programme  forward  with  2017  workshops  planned  in     more  loca3ons  including  London,  Toronto,  Dubai  and  Mumbai,  we  will  be   asking  more  ques3ons  about  how  we  can  meet  the  future  challenges.      Moving  Forward  
  91. 91. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org   @futureagenda  

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