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Innovating the future ten key opportunity areas for innovation - 16 11 16

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As we have been sharing insights from Future Agenda over the past year, there have been many discussions about the most attractive areas for innovation. Some have focused on technology driven change, others on still unmet social and environmental needs. This new overview highlights those topics that are seen by informed people around the world as some the most significant innovation opportunities for the next decade. We are sharing this to both help stimulate further debate and also to help focus resources on addressing the associated challenges.

Having gained these insights from our multiple global discussions, we are now helping to choreograph several partnerships to take a number of areas forward to the next level. To do this we ask for your support. We would value your considered response to the rationale behind our top ten analysis and also any suggestions around how to progress. Moreover, if you would be interested in collaborating to explore one of these further do please let us know.

Published in: Business

Innovating the future ten key opportunity areas for innovation - 16 11 16

  1. 1. Innova&ng the Future Ten Major Opportunity Areas for Innova5on 16 November 2016 The world’s leading open foresight program
  2. 2. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program. Run as a global dialogue across all con5nents, it accesses mul5ple views of the next decade so we can all be beIer informed and so focus on and s5mulate innova5on.
  3. 3. Ten Innova&on Opportuni&es Over the past year we have shared insights across many countries and sectors and have iden5fied and discussed the biggest innova5on opportuni5es for the next decade. Here are the top 10 based on need and poten5al impact.
  4. 4. Selec&on Criteria We have chosen those areas that meet three criteria: being global / mul5 regional in impact, s5ll requiring significant progress and having the poten5al to create new value. Global or Mul& Regional Impact Poten&al to Create New Value S&ll Require Significant Progress
  5. 5. Reducing Air Pollu&on Rising air pollu5on in many ci5es is already killing people. It will become a visible catalyst for changing mind-sets and policies across health, energy, transporta5on and urban design.
  6. 6. Reducing Air Pollu&on Air pollu5on currently causes 5.5m premature deaths each year. Such is the scale of the problem that the OECD believes it will become the biggest cause of premature death. It is already a focus for 5ghter regula5on and behaviour change. Already Underway: •  Regula5on to reduce emissions especially from diesel vehicles. •  Improved monitoring of air quality and sharing of data on key metrics. •  More ci5es more enforcing low / zero emission zones. •  Policy changes on industrial pollu5on and energy use in China and India. •  Educa5on programmes on air pollu5on and risk to health. •  Awareness of linkage to smoking and domes5c cooking fuels like kerosene. Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Organisa5ons globally will come under increasing pressure to play their part in reducing air pollu5on. •  Integra5on of scrubbing technologies within ven5la5on systems in buildings / external environments. Some Early Examples: Natural Air Purifica5on External Cleaning Tower More Informa&on: Air Quality (Future Agenda)
  7. 7. Providing Basic Sanita&on Poor sanita5on con5nues to impact public health and restrict social progress, par5cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa5ons priori5se measurement, educa5on and innova5on in a bid to drive change.
  8. 8. Providing Basic Sanita&on Forty percent of the world’s popula5on, 2.5bn people, s5ll prac5ce open defeca5on or lack adequate sanita5on facili5es, and the consequences can be devasta5ng for human health as well as the environment. Already Underway: •  Investment in infrastructure taking place across SE Asia and Africa •  Shi]ing cultural a^tudes in key regions towards sanita5on •  UN / World Bank support for India’s Universal Sanita5on Ini5a5ves •  Increased global awareness of challenge as 6th UN SDG •  Overcoming toilet access deficiency for girls in schools •  Changing poli5cal cache of sanita5on policy in mul5ple countries Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Developing non-sewered sanita5on approaches and new delivery models •  Developing technologies that lead to radical improvements in sanita5on in the developing world. Some Early Examples: SEI Sustainable Sanita5on Ini5a5ve Gates Founda5on’s Sanita5on program Fecal sludge by-products at scale More Informa&on: Basic Sanita5on (Future Agenda)
  9. 9. Minimising Food Waste 30-50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump5on and could feed another 3 billion. Op5mising distribu5on and storage in developing countries and enabling beIer consumer informa5on in others could solve this.
  10. 10. Minimising Food Waste By 2050 the world will need 60% more calories every day to feed 9bn people. With constraints on land supply, more efficient produc5on can only partly meet this demand and hence the growing focus on mimimising food waste. Already Underway: •  Increased refrigera5on of supply chains in developing countries •  FAO investment in new food storage infrastructure systems •  Improved awareness of sell by / use before dates on supermarket foods •  Smart, ac5ve and intelligent packaging and labeling •  Food sharing and reuse programmes ac5ng with food safety guidelines •  Anaerobic diges5on repurposing food as energy and agricultural products Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Cellular agriculture to reproduce healthy food in the lab •  Safe circular food supply / resupply systems and networks including shops and restaurants Some Early Examples: Cellular Agriculture Copia Food Recovery Hierarchy More Informa&on: Food Waste (Future Agenda)
  11. 11. Delivering Affordable Healthcare The escala5ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori5es.
  12. 12. Delivering Affordable Healthcare In the West 80% of healthcare spend is associated with the last 2 years of life but 70% of the global popula5on is without access to decent healthcare. Redesigning healthcare systems for lower cost is therefore a common need. Already Underway: •  Investment in more preventa5ve healthcare business models •  Bespoke drugs and personalised medicines based on genomics •  Introduc5on of micro-health insurance in key regions •  Adop5on and development of pa5ent co-pay systems •  Gene therapy and gene edi5ng to avoid future disease development •  Development of robo5c carers and beIer end of life provision Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  New protocols to keep pa5ents out of hospitals un5l as late as possible. •  Pa5ent-centric business models that deliver quality care at lower costs Some Early Examples: Carer marketplaces Narayana Healthcare Grand Aides More Informa&on: Care in the Community (Future Agenda) Affordable Healthcare (Future Agenda)
  13. 13. Educa&on Revolu&on Broader access to improved educa5on acts as a major catalyst for empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa5on system fit for the digital revolu5on.
  14. 14. Educa&on Revolu&on Although technology can help improve educa5on it is not a silver bullet alone. The reality for the next decade will probably be a hybrid of face-to-face and online learning where digital connec5vity enable a different approach to teaching. Already Underway: •  Wider adop5on of MOOCS (Massive online open courses) globally •  Developing of con5nuous learning plaiorms beyond school years. •  Common standards being agreed across different schools / systems. •  Renewed industry leadership in co- designing educa5on formats •  Significant private sector investment in new educa5onal plaiorms •  Inclusive and quality educa5on for all and lifelong learning a UN SDG Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Decoupling dependency on fully trained teachers and so enabling higher student ra5os. •  Developing credible systems that parents will be willing to allow children to follow. Some Early Examples: Teachers as coaches / mentors Kahn Academy More Informa&on: Educa5on Revolu5on (Future Agenda)
  15. 15. True Value of Clean Water As water stress impacts 40% of the world, we will have to pay the true value for this key resource. In a more water-conscious world, the cost of water is recognised, full water footprints are measured and companies significantly reduce consump5on.
  16. 16. True Value of Clean Water While the total volume of water on the planet remains constant, increasing demand drives the value of clean water up. Already priced at $15 per litre in some areas, more investment in preserving / cleaning potable water is a priority for many. Already Underway: •  BeIer managing water supply / demand in areas of water stress •  Using less water per capita and reducing products’ water footprints •  Lower cost desalina5on investment in key loca5ons like Singapore •  Applica5on of data analy5cs to measure / create smart water grids •  Interna5onal collabora5on on shared water catchment programmes •  Growing awareness of water security for ci5es alongside food and energy Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Taking chemical pollutants - especially hydrocarbons - out of water used by industry •  Low energy desalina5on technologies to improve access beyond the richest na5ons Some Early Examples: Hyflux Takadu More Informa&on: Full Cost (Future Agenda)
  17. 17. Suppor&ng Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re5rements. Flexible working prac5ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con5nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
  18. 18. Suppor&ng Working Longer As re5rement for 30 years based on working for 40 becomes impossible, more orgnsai5ons and networks seek to retain experienced employees within the mix through more flexible approaches to work and value crea5on Already Underway: •  Shi]s in official re5rement ages for state pensions in several countries •  Growth of gig-economy providing new plaiorms for older workers •  Support for third career training and con5nuous learning programmes •  Wider use of co-working spaces and hubs in many ci5es •  Business crea5on by older adults increased 60% from 1996 to 2012 •  Subsidies of up to 75% for employing older workers in Sweden Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Marketplaces for skilled knowledge workers extend into wider economy •  VC and broader social investment vehicles for older entrepreneurs Some Early Examples: BMW YourEncore.com Agewell Global More Informa&on: Working Longer (Future Agenda) Organisa5on 3.0 (Future Agenda) Agelessness (Future Agenda)
  19. 19. Building Data Marketplaces Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything that is informa5on is represented in a new data marketplace.
  20. 20. Building Data Marketplaces As many seek to capture as much data as possible, most organisa5ons lack ac5onable methods to tap into, mone5ze, and strategically exploit this new value. Not only is core data value unclear but access vs. ownership is confusing for many. Already Underway: •  Bilateral trading of data between brands and technology plaiorms •  Established norms for selling aggregated customer data •  Localised data marketplaces within specific industries and regions •  Growth in real-5me analy5cs and the enabling of wider dynamic pricing •  Plaiorms to exert control on and create value from individual iden5ty •  Strengthening interna5onal frameworks on personal privacy Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Crea5ng the protocols that can underpin credible global plaiorms •  Trea5ng personal data as a product within a privacy marketplace Some Early Examples: Datacoup DigiMe More Informa&on: Increasing Value of Data Data Ownership (Future Agenda) Crea5ng an IoT Marketplace (McKinsey)
  21. 21. Inves&ng in Nature’s Capital In the Anthropocene, humankind is presiding over the Earth's sixth major ex5nc5on. But as biodiversity declines, nature becomes increasingly valued and valuable.
  22. 22. Inves&ng in Nature’s Capital Leveraging private capital for conserva5on grows alongside government investments to have greater impact. Businesses start to pay the true cost of the resources they use and so compensate for their nega5ve impact on society. Already Underway: •  Corporate environmental, social and governance becoming more focused •  Triple-boIom line accoun5ng framework aligned to create value •  3P (people, planet, profit) strong foothold in The Netherlands •  Integrated Repor5ng (IIRC) approach being adopted by leading companies •  Nature Conservancy growing in influence in US and interna5onally •  Impacts of climate change accepted and implica5ons being widely shared Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Funds focused on impact investment in nature •  Crea5on of plaiorms that aid transparency on corporate ac5vi5es. Some Early Examples: Naturevest Net Posi5ve Project Trucost More Informa&on: Nature’s Capital (Future Agenda) Full Cost (Future Agenda) ESG (Wikipedia)
  23. 23. Governance of Machines Automa5on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
  24. 24. Governance of Machines As AI and deep learning become more embedded in the world, concern is growing about who is accountable for the decisions made. As technology races ahead who sets the rules is becoming a priority concern for many. Already Underway: •  Widespread embracing of the big data trend across many sectors •  Notable ar5ficial intelligence moves towards singularity •  Technology firms investments in machine learning / deep learning •  AI taking over key middle class jobs such as lawyers and accountants •  Eric Schmidt believes the Turing test will be passed in 2018 •  AI experts called for autonomous drone development to stop Future Innova&on Opportuni&es: •  Society needs to develop ways of dealing with the ethics of robo5cs •  Collabora5on between engineers, ethicists, lawyers and policymakers Some Early Examples: Self-determining machines Nao Robot MIT Moral Machine More Informa&on: Ethical Machines (Future Agenda) Three laws of robo5cs (Asimov)
  25. 25. Sustainable Development Goals Seven of these align strongly with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and highlight areas that have been recognised as significant for some 5me but which are also going to be ever more important to address in the future
  26. 26. Join Us in Moving Things Forward We are now helping to choreograph several partnerships to take a selec5on of these top 10 opportunity areas forward. To do this we need your input and support. Let us know which are most important and why and how you may want to help.
  27. 27. More Informa&on and Insights www.futureagenda.org hIp://tmiltd.com/products/future-agenda hIp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2
  28. 28. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 doubled the face-to-face interac5on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
  29. 29. Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The recent Future Agenda program took place during 2015 and addressed 24 key topics via 120 events in 45 ci5es in 35 countries across 5 con5nents – all conducted in partnership with 50 core hosts. Ci5es Educa5on Learning Transport Collabora5on Energy Loyalty Travel Company Faith Payments Water Connec5vity Food Privacy Wealth Currency Government Resources Work Ageing Data Health Trade
  30. 30. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org

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