Keynote presentation to the Area Schools Conference in Wellington, 18 August, 2017

1. Future Shock?
Area Schools Conference Keynote
Wellington, 17 August, 2017
derek.wenmoth@core-ed.org
@dwenmoth
http://www.wenmoth.net

2. Then Now
Population 720 570
Roll 220 82
Industry 3 mills closed
Dairy factory closed
Kiwifruit closed

3. Our changing world
Our world is changing and changing rapidly.
What must we do to prepare students for living and working in the 21st
century?
How must our schools and teachers change to meet these opportunities and
challenges?

4. Future Shock
•“Future shock is the shattering
stress and disorientation that
we induce in individuals by
subjecting them to too much
change in too short a time.”
•Alvin Toffler

5. The Future…
• Food supply
• Water
• Cryogenics
• Nano-technology
• Superdiversity
• Human rights
• Poverty
• Religious intolerance

6. http://medicalfuturist.com/googles-amazing-digital-contact-lens-can-transform-diabetes-care/

7. http://tellspec.com/

8. Sensors $350K
six years ago
Less than
$1000 today

9. $325,000 per
kilo in 2013
$12 per kilo
in 2017
http://www.futurefood.org/in-vitro-meat/index_en.php

10. http://www.businessinsider.com/openai-vr-headset-to-teach-a-robot-how-to-stack-blocks-2017-5

11. Neural Lace
•“…an ultra-thin mesh that
can be implanted in the skull,
forming a collection of
electrodes capable of
monitoring brain function. It
creates an interface between
the brain and the machine”
http://www.techworld.com/big-data/what-is-neural-lace-3657074/

12. https://hbr.org/2015/06/beyond-automation

13. https://hbr.org/2015/06/beyond-automation

14. • In 2015 Darrell West of the
Brookings Institute wrote about
the impact of emerging
technologies on employment and
public policy in which he cites
computerized algorithms and
artificial intelligence as key
influencers of this change.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/robotwork.pdf

15. • “Economists may be
underestimating how fast the
robots are coming.
• Robots and intelligent machines
threaten to replace workers in
industries from finance to retail to
haulage, with more than 15 million
British jobs and 80 million in the
U.S. lost to automation.”
• BOE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/economists-may-be-underestimating-
how-fast-the-robots-are-coming

16. • While automation will eliminate very few
occupations entirely in the next decade,
it will affect portions of almost all jobs to
a greater or lesser degree, depending
on the type of work they entail.
• Automation, now going beyond routine
manufacturing activities, has the
potential, as least with regard to its
technical feasibility, to transform sectors
such as healthcare and finance, which
involve a substantial share of
knowledge work.
• McKinsey Quarterly, July 2016
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-
could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet

17. • “The artificial intelligence
revolution and its impact on the
US workforce is not even on our
radar screen…
• …technology is still 50 to 100
years from displacing human
jobs.”
• US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=11825496

18. Amplification effect
•“Our technological powers
increase, but the side effects
and potential hazards also
escalate.”
•Alvin Toffler

19. Flexibility
Globalisation
Automation
Three Global Forces
http://www.fya.org.au/report/the-new-work-mindset-report/

20. | AUTOMATION
7 in 10
Will enter the labour
market in jobs that will be
automated or lost
60%
Training in jobs that will
be radically changed by
automation
http://www.fya.org.au/report/the-new-work-mindset-report/

21. http://www.fya.org.au/report/the-new-work-mindset-report/
| GLOBALISATION
1 in 10
Service jobs can
be performed remotely
750m
12-26yrs in Asia-
Pacific region

22. http://www.fya.org.au/report/the-new-work-mindset-report/
| FLEXIBILITY
1 in 3
Australians are already
in flexible working
arrangements

23. Change in demand for skills
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market:
An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

24. https://ideas-ted-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/amp/

25. • What would schools look like?
• How would they operate?
• What would be the focus of the curriculum?
• How would we organise the school day?
• What would teachers do?
• How would we assess learning?
• What would be the role of digital
technologies?
• What would we do differently???
But what if all of this really is true?

26. “We’re still working within the same
twentieth-century framework.
The thinking hasn’t changed. It’s just
couching what we’ve already done in
much fancier production values. It
looks cooler and more digitised, but the
underlying educational objectives have
not changed.”
Dr. Jane Gilbert
http://idealog.co.nz/etc/2015/03/educating-future-we-cant-imagine

27. “if we don’t change the way we are
teaching our young people, they will be
staggeringly ill-prepared for the future.”
Dr. Jane Gilbert
http://idealog.co.nz/etc/2015/03/educating-future-we-cant-imagine

28. Changing paradigms
History
7000 BC 3000 AD
David Ronfeldt TIMN (Tribal, Institutional, Market, Network)

29. Changing nature of education provision
In the networked age, our education institutions
must shift from the existing paradigm of operating
in relative isolation (even competition) to being
more collaborative and working as a node on an
education network. Virtual learning services are
expanding internationally, with the development
of virtual schools in many countries.

30. Thinking like a network
• What do the nodes represent? (schools,
students etc.)
• What are the links that connect the
nodes? (structural, relational etc.)
• What is activity occurring across the
network? (research, resource sharing,
teaching, learning, community connections
etc.)
Activity (or comms)

31. Virtual learning network
The Virtual Learning Network Community
(VLNC) is a group of clusters and
individuals who choose to operate as a
collaborative network, utilising digital
technologies in order to enhance the
learning outcomes and opportunities for
learners (students, teachers, school
communities and educators).
http://www.vln.school.nz

32. COOLs?
Effective from January 2020 after the development of an
appropriate regulatory framework to protect the education,
safety and wellbeing of students… e.g.:
• Students enrolled in more than one institution
• Students managing their own learning record
• Varied roles for educators – facilitators, SMEs,
• Flexibility in terms of the ’learning day’
How might you exploit this opportunity?
http://bit.ly/2v27ohG

33. Toffler’s vision for schools
• Open 24 hours a day
• Customized educational experience
• Kids arrive at different times
• Students begin their formalized schooling at different ages
• Curriculum is integrated across disciplines
• Non-teachers work with teachers
• Teachers alternate working in schools and in business world
• Local businesses have offices in the schools
• Increased number of charter schools
http://www.eduleadership.org/alvin-toffler-on-the-future-of-education/

34. Think Big!
•“You've got to think about
big things while you're doing
small things, so that all the
small things go in the right
direction...”
•Alvin Toffler

35. derek.wenmoth@core-ed.org
@dwenmoth
http://www.wenmoth.net