Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
Chief Innovation Officer
Contact North | Contact Nord
This presentation has three components:
A Brief History of the Future
The Implications of This Future for the
Nature of Learning
Some Opportunities to Reimagine Teaching
1. Governments and their relationships with public
institutions – austerity, accountability and complexity.
2. New forms of organizations and new patterns of work. –
the “uberization” of organizations and the “gig” economy.
3. Technological change shifting the focus of work,
productivity and performance:
1. Artificial Intelligence
3. 3D Printing
4. Stem-Cell Therapies and new approaches to medical
5. New materials (e.g. graphene)
4. Environmental shifts – 9 billion people by 2050 and
5. Changes in social behaviour and “consciousness” – new
patterns of social interaction, social engagement and new
understandings of relationships between people, people
and work, people and society, people and the planet.
Year Total Self-
By the year 2015 in Canada, app. 40% of the workforce were
contingent workers – contracted for service rather than
employees. 16% declare themselves in this way as self-
employed. The contingent workforce doubled since 2008.
Largest number of contingent workers are young people
under the age of 35.
Canada has the 3rd largest contingent workforce in the world
behind New Zealand (#1) and the US (#2).
75% of the university sector are contingent workers
IStheEconomy.. Worldwide, 40% of the world’s workforce are
contingent workers and this number is
expected to rise to 60% by 2020.
In the Fortune 100 companies, contingent
workers make up 30% of the workforce, but
predictions are that will soon rise to 50%.
Manufacturing more focused on the management of technology
than production activity – maintenance.
Artificial intelligence + design = new thinking about process.
Office work has changed – 24x7 access, process based work,
globalization of work..
Most gains in productivity arise from deployment of technology –
we need to learn to dance with robots
BMW Mini Plant at Cowley, Oxford UK
A customized car every 61 seconds
Local Motors (Phoenix, Arizona) crowdsources design and
engineering and then 3D prints its components / body.
Manufactures customized versions on demand.
Manufactures all forms of transport, including snowmobiles,
water based vehicles and public transport.
First driverless 3d printed public bus now operating in
Helsinki and will soon operate in Calgary
A group of Dutch engineers have printed a bridge crossing a Dutch canal
using an “arm printer”, overcoming the size limitations of 1st and 2nd
generation 3D printers.
Apis Cor (San Francisco) 3D printed a house in 24 hours at a cost of
$12,000US that met the California building code.
3D medical devices – prosthetics, stents, dental devices and other – already
a fast growing sector: the ability to personalize / customize a strong
Using a cell phone as a printer (light from the phone used on polymers to
print) Elon Musk and his engineers at SpaceX have created a 3D printed
SuperDraco rocket engine. This got off the ground in 2016.
3D printing now includes:
Aerospace parts (European Space Agency)
Metal parts using various metals and graphene
Props and materials for films / TV
Shoes and clothing
Bones, skin and body parts
Tires and car parts
Forget many of the images you have of what robots are
and what they can do..
Robotic kitchens which can produce meals on demand..
Robotic weapons and fight systems
Self-driving cars, buses, trains and trucks likely to
replace current transport systems over time – potential
displacement of some 3.5 million North American
workers by 2030
570,000 surgeries in 2014 were robotically assisted in
Intelligence(AI) Offering an analysis of an MRI scan – suggesting clinical pathways
based on “best possible” understanding
Predicting student behaviour and offering learning resources based on
student activity …Blackboard / IBM Watson partnership..
Counselling and personal therapy..
Supports for design and creativity
Man-machine interfaces for better productivity – especially in
manufacturing, financial services and health
The Singularity – Where AI is smarter than
the collective intelligence of the species
BasicDemography(Canada) By 2030, 30% of Canadians will be over 60 years of age
There will be 2 working age people in Canada for each
retiree – down from 4 in 2015.
More seniors than students in K-12 for the first time.
The Age of
Global population will exceed 9 billion
The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double
There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number
80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries
For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14
In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65
2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030,
mainly in Asia, India and Africa
By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be
headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or
Europe (41% of them are already Asian based)
425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in
Shift from routine work to creative
Replacement of routine work with technology –
think secretarial services, banking, insurance,
Higher education key to future employment,
especially college / polytechnic education
Increased pressure on Governments for $$ at a time
when the tax base is shrinking
Increased pressure on schools, colleges and universities
to engage in both the skills agenda but also a new focus
on resilience and adaptability
Increased pressure to accelerate program completion,
offer more flexible routes to success and engage in new
and imaginative programming.
The Government preoccupation with “The Skills
Gap” – which is actually complex..
Gap 1: The Basic Gap: The Gap Between What
Employers are Seeking and What they Can Find
Gap 2: The Expectations Gap – The Gap Between What
an Employee Expects to Experience at Work and What
they Actually Find Themselves Doing
Gap 3: The Productivity Gap – The Skills We Need to
Develop to Significantly Improve Productivity
Gap 4: The Leverage Gap – The Underutilization of
Skills in the Workforce
Gap 5: The Futures Gap – The Gap Between Current
Skill Sets and the Skills We Need to Become Competitive
in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Gap 6: The Innovation Gap - The Skills We Need to Build
a More Innovative and Sustainable Economy
A variety of substantial surveys of
Millennials (born between 1981 and
2000) show that they see themselves as:
Open to Change
High Expectations for Themselves and
Modular, Stackable, Programs Which are
Personalized Learning Through Flexible
Certificates, Diplomas and Degrees
MOOC’s for credit
Work-Based Learning Accreditation and
Accelerated Prior Learning Assessment
Learning Passports (e-Portfolios)
It’s about meeting learner needs and expectations.
Quality is about engagement, value creation and
Assessment is the core work.
Competency Based Assessment using Valid8 or a
similar system for video-based assessment linked to an
e-portfolio and the use of AI to generate assessments
for 365x24 hour assessment opportunities.
Micro Credit – (0.25, 0.3, 0.5, 1) which are stackable to
3 credit transferable courses.
Formal programs, laddering (stacks), and shell
programs which provide for flexibility, change and
Personalized and adaptive learning systems
Malaysia uses MOOC’s for Year 1 and 2 of public
university programs. Free to study, students pay for
assessment and credits gained are acceptable in any
University of Wisconsin (and 6 others) have degrees
based entirely of the demonstration of competency and
capability. No teaching, just assessment and student
Charles Guttman Community College in New York
uses e-portfolios (learning passports) to determine the
learning agendas and performance of students.
Kentucky Technical and Community College System
offers modular, stackable micro-courses for its
university transfer – 365 admission, 2-3 week courses.
Learning analytics enabling rapid intervention to
increase completions and student engagement and
improvements in course design (Blockchain technology
also being deployed).
Machine learning / AI used to both generate
assessment items, grade assessments and ensure
equity in assessment.
IBM Watson now being used to personalize learning
(together with adaptive learning engines, such as
Brightspace within D2L).
We’re in the midst of a significa nt
Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort
Schooling / 3rd
21st Century for
Community / 4th
The Future School in the In Between
“You cannot cross a chasm in two small leaps …it takes
courage to lead…”
“The future isn’t a straight line from the past..”