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McMaster Continuing Education Presentation, Sept 2017

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Keynote to the CEC at McMaster on 20th September.

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McMaster Continuing Education Presentation, Sept 2017

  1. 1. The21st CenturyTeachingand LearningLandscape:A Timeof RenaissanceandChange Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA Chief Innovation Officer Contact North | Contact Nord
  2. 2. What’sItAll About?  This presentation has three components:  A Brief History of the Future  The Implications of This Future for the Nature of Learning  Some Opportunities to Reimagine Teaching and Learning
  3. 3. FiveForces Shapingthe Future 1. Governments and their relationships with public institutions – austerity, accountability and complexity. 2. New forms of organizations and new patterns of work. – the “uberization” of organizations and the “gig” economy. 3. Technological change shifting the focus of work, productivity and performance: 1. Artificial Intelligence 2. Robotics 3. 3D Printing 4. Stem-Cell Therapies and new approaches to medical treatment. 5. New materials (e.g. graphene) 4. Environmental shifts – 9 billion people by 2050 and climate change. 5. Changes in social behaviour and “consciousness” – new patterns of social interaction, social engagement and new understandings of relationships between people, people and work, people and society, people and the planet.
  4. 4. Contingentand SelfEmployment Growing Year Total Self- Employed (Canada) 1987 1,699,100 2007 2,598,600 2017 2,875,900  By the year 2015 in Canada, app. 40% of the workforce were contingent workers – contracted for service rather than employees. 16% declare themselves in this way as self- employed. The contingent workforce doubled since 2008.  Largest number of contingent workers are young people under the age of 35.  Canada has the 3rd largest contingent workforce in the world behind New Zealand (#1) and the US (#2).  75% of the university sector are contingent workers (sessional, part-timers).
  5. 5. TheGigEconomy IStheEconomy..  Worldwide, 40% of the world’s workforce are contingent workers and this number is expected to rise to 60% by 2020.  In the Fortune 100 companies, contingent workers make up 30% of the workforce, but predictions are that will soon rise to 50%.
  6. 6. NotOnlyHasWHO isworkingchanged, butWHATtheydo hastoo  Manufacturing more focused on the management of technology than production activity – maintenance.  Artificial intelligence + design = new thinking about process.  Office work has changed – 24x7 access, process based work, globalization of work..  Most gains in productivity arise from deployment of technology – we need to learn to dance with robots BMW Mini Plant at Cowley, Oxford UK A customized car every 61 seconds
  7. 7. Idea2:MoreChangeto Come Technology
  8. 8. Emerging Technology:3D Printing  Local Motors (Phoenix, Arizona) crowdsources design and engineering and then 3D prints its components / body.  Manufactures customized versions on demand.  Manufactures all forms of transport, including snowmobiles, water based vehicles and public transport.  First driverless 3d printed public bus now operating in Helsinki and will soon operate in Calgary
  9. 9. 3DPrinting Quickly Emerging…  A group of Dutch engineers have printed a bridge crossing a Dutch canal using an “arm printer”, overcoming the size limitations of 1st and 2nd generation 3D printers.  Apis Cor (San Francisco) 3D printed a house in 24 hours at a cost of $12,000US that met the California building code.  3D medical devices – prosthetics, stents, dental devices and other – already a fast growing sector: the ability to personalize / customize a strong attractor.  Using a cell phone as a printer (light from the phone used on polymers to print) Elon Musk and his engineers at SpaceX have created a 3D printed SuperDraco rocket engine. This got off the ground in 2016.  3D printing now includes:  Aerospace parts (European Space Agency)  Metal parts using various metals and graphene  Props and materials for films / TV  Shoes and clothing  Bones, skin and body parts  Tires and car parts
  10. 10. Robotics  Forget many of the images you have of what robots are and what they can do..  Imagine..  Robotic kitchens which can produce meals on demand..  Robotic weapons and fight systems  Self-driving cars, buses, trains and trucks likely to replace current transport systems over time – potential displacement of some 3.5 million North American workers by 2030  570,000 surgeries in 2014 were robotically assisted in the US
  11. 11. Artificial Intelligence(AI)  Offering an analysis of an MRI scan – suggesting clinical pathways based on “best possible” understanding  Predicting student behaviour and offering learning resources based on student activity …Blackboard / IBM Watson partnership..  Counselling and personal therapy..  Supports for design and creativity  Man-machine interfaces for better productivity – especially in manufacturing, financial services and health The Singularity – Where AI is smarter than the collective intelligence of the species
  12. 12. Idea2:MoreChangeto Come Demography
  13. 13. BasicDemography(Canada) By 2030, 30% of Canadians will be over 60 years of age  There will be 2 working age people in Canada for each retiree – down from 4 in 2015.  More seniors than students in K-12 for the first time. The Age of the Senior
  14. 14. By2050:More Demographic Shocks..  Global population will exceed 9 billion  The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double  There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number  80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries  For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14  In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65
  15. 15. Economic Geography–Shift Happens!  2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030, mainly in Asia, India and Africa  By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or Europe (41% of them are already Asian based)  425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in Asia
  16. 16. Changesinthe Workforce  Shift from routine work to creative employment..  Replacement of routine work with technology – think secretarial services, banking, insurance, travel..  Higher education key to future employment, especially college / polytechnic education
  17. 17. AllofWhich GivesRiseTo..  Increased pressure on Governments for $$ at a time when the tax base is shrinking  Increased pressure on schools, colleges and universities to engage in both the skills agenda but also a new focus on resilience and adaptability  Increased pressure to accelerate program completion, offer more flexible routes to success and engage in new and imaginative programming.
  18. 18. AManifestation ofWhich…  The Government preoccupation with “The Skills Gap” – which is actually complex..  Gap 1: The Basic Gap: The Gap Between What Employers are Seeking and What they Can Find  Gap 2: The Expectations Gap – The Gap Between What an Employee Expects to Experience at Work and What they Actually Find Themselves Doing  Gap 3: The Productivity Gap – The Skills We Need to Develop to Significantly Improve Productivity  Gap 4: The Leverage Gap – The Underutilization of Skills in the Workforce  Gap 5: The Futures Gap – The Gap Between Current Skill Sets and the Skills We Need to Become Competitive in the 4th Industrial Revolution  Gap 6: The Innovation Gap - The Skills We Need to Build a More Innovative and Sustainable Economy
  19. 19. andanew understanding of“SELF”  A variety of substantial surveys of Millennials (born between 1981 and 2000) show that they see themselves as:  “Awesome”  Capable  Confident  Connected  Open to Change  Work-Life Balance  High Expectations for Themselves and Society
  20. 20. NewThinkingAbout Learning
  21. 21. 5Important Developments  Modular, Stackable, Programs Which are Competency Driven  Personalized Learning Through Flexible Certificates, Diplomas and Degrees  MOOC’s for credit  Work-Based Learning Accreditation and Accelerated Prior Learning Assessment  Learning Passports (e-Portfolios)
  22. 22. KeyComponents ofEmergent LearningSystems  It’s about meeting learner needs and expectations. Quality is about engagement, value creation and competencies.  Assessment is the core work.  Competency Based Assessment using Valid8 or a similar system for video-based assessment linked to an e-portfolio and the use of AI to generate assessments for 365x24 hour assessment opportunities.  Micro Credit – (0.25, 0.3, 0.5, 1) which are stackable to 3 credit transferable courses.  Formal programs, laddering (stacks), and shell programs which provide for flexibility, change and adaptability  Personalized and adaptive learning systems
  23. 23. 7 ChangesThat MakethePoint..  Malaysia uses MOOC’s for Year 1 and 2 of public university programs. Free to study, students pay for assessment and credits gained are acceptable in any public university.  University of Wisconsin (and 6 others) have degrees based entirely of the demonstration of competency and capability. No teaching, just assessment and student advising.  Charles Guttman Community College in New York uses e-portfolios (learning passports) to determine the learning agendas and performance of students.  Kentucky Technical and Community College System offers modular, stackable micro-courses for its university transfer – 365 admission, 2-3 week courses.
  24. 24. …and…  Learning analytics enabling rapid intervention to increase completions and student engagement and improvements in course design (Blockchain technology also being deployed).  Machine learning / AI used to both generate assessment items, grade assessments and ensure equity in assessment.  IBM Watson now being used to personalize learning (together with adaptive learning engines, such as Brightspace within D2L).
  25. 25. TheInBetween Time We’re in the midst of a significa nt change.A.. In Between Time Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort SystemMaturity Industrial Form of Schooling / 3rd Way Policies 21st Century for of Personalized Learning in School and Community / 4th Way Policies Paradigm Shi The Future School in the In Between Time
  26. 26. So… “You cannot cross a chasm in two small leaps …it takes courage to lead…”
  27. 27. InConclusion.. “The future isn’t a straight line from the past..”
  28. 28. Connect..  murgatroydstephen@gmail.com  @murgatroydsteph  www.stephenmurgatroyd.com

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