The Global Risk Landscape:  Challenges of Extreme Events Detlof von Winterfeldt Director, International Institute for Appl...
Source: IIASA Global Risk Trends
Why Risks Are Increasing <ul><li>Increases of weather related events and terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Increased concentrati...
Extreme Events Become More Extreme
The Nature of Extreme Events <ul><li>Unknowable events or consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme tails of the distribution...
Examples <ul><li>Hurricanes and Earthquakes:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowable events and consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><l...
Extreme Tails of the Distribution Probability distribution without unexpected events Probability distribution with  unexpe...
Katrina Overtopping  vs. Levee Breach
Examples of Dynamic Ripple Effects Terrorism Economic Crisis ]
Indirect Economic Impacts of Disasters Source: CREATE, USC
A Terrorism Example <ul><ul><li>“ If their economy is destroyed, they will be busy with their own affairs rather than ensl...
What’s a Dirty Bomb?
Radiotherapy and Diagnostics Thousands of Curies (Cobalt 60, Cesium 137)
Industrial Irradiator Hundreds of Thousands of Curies (Cobalt 60, Cesium 137)
Spent Nuclear Fuel Millions of Curies (multiple radionuclides)
Sources Of Radioactive Materials
Hypothetical Radioactive Plume (Los Angeles)
Fatalities <ul><li>Blast effect and acute radiation impacts: a few fatalities </li></ul><ul><li>Four day dose from plume: ...
Cost of Shutting Down the Ports <ul><li>15 days:  $138 million </li></ul><ul><li>120 days: $  35 billion </li></ul><ul><li...
Other Costs <ul><li>Evacuation:   up to $100 million </li></ul><ul><li>Property Values: up to $200 million </li></ul><ul><...
Conclusions <ul><li>“ Weapon of Mass Disruption” </li></ul><ul><li>Mostly economic impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Countermeasur...
Game Changers <ul><li>Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center in 2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changed the way we look at ...
What Kind of Research is Needed? Risk Assessment Dynamic Systems Analysis Behavioral Research Policy Analysis
Thank You More information about IIASA at: www.iiasa.ac.at
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The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events

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The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events

  1. 1. The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events Detlof von Winterfeldt Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Visiting Centennial Professor , London School of Economics 3 rd International Disaster and Risk Conference Global Risk Forum, Davos June 2, 2010
  2. 2. Source: IIASA Global Risk Trends
  3. 3. Why Risks Are Increasing <ul><li>Increases of weather related events and terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Increased concentrations of people </li></ul><ul><li>Interconnectedness of the world </li></ul><ul><li>Tighter systems couplings </li></ul><ul><li>Unexpected global “ripple effects” </li></ul>
  4. 4. Extreme Events Become More Extreme
  5. 5. The Nature of Extreme Events <ul><li>Unknowable events or consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme tails of the distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic ripple effects </li></ul><ul><li>Game changer </li></ul>
  6. 6. Examples <ul><li>Hurricanes and Earthquakes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowable events and consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Terrorism: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unknowable events, knowable consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Systemic financial risks: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowable events, unknowable consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unknowable events, unknowable consequences? </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Extreme Tails of the Distribution Probability distribution without unexpected events Probability distribution with unexpected events
  8. 8. Katrina Overtopping vs. Levee Breach
  9. 9. Examples of Dynamic Ripple Effects Terrorism Economic Crisis ]
  10. 10. Indirect Economic Impacts of Disasters Source: CREATE, USC
  11. 11. A Terrorism Example <ul><ul><li>“ If their economy is destroyed, they will be busy with their own affairs rather than enslaving the weak peoples. It is very important to concentrate on hitting the US economy through all possible means.” </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. What’s a Dirty Bomb?
  13. 13. Radiotherapy and Diagnostics Thousands of Curies (Cobalt 60, Cesium 137)
  14. 14. Industrial Irradiator Hundreds of Thousands of Curies (Cobalt 60, Cesium 137)
  15. 15. Spent Nuclear Fuel Millions of Curies (multiple radionuclides)
  16. 16. Sources Of Radioactive Materials
  17. 17. Hypothetical Radioactive Plume (Los Angeles)
  18. 18. Fatalities <ul><li>Blast effect and acute radiation impacts: a few fatalities </li></ul><ul><li>Four day dose from plume: a few to a few hundred latent cancers </li></ul><ul><li>Ground shine: a few to a few hundred latent cancers </li></ul>
  19. 19. Cost of Shutting Down the Ports <ul><li>15 days: $138 million </li></ul><ul><li>120 days: $ 35 billion </li></ul><ul><li>365 days: $100 billion </li></ul>
  20. 20. Other Costs <ul><li>Evacuation: up to $100 million </li></ul><ul><li>Property Values: up to $200 million </li></ul><ul><li>Business Loss: up to $3 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Decontamination: up to $100 billion </li></ul>
  21. 21. Conclusions <ul><li>“ Weapon of Mass Disruption” </li></ul><ul><li>Mostly economic impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Countermeasures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protect sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intercept early after theft </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Radiological detection portals </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Game Changers <ul><li>Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center in 2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changed the way we look at national security </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tsunami in Indonesia in 2004 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changed the way we look at risks in developing countries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Economic Crisis of 2008/9 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changed the way we look at interconnected risks </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. What Kind of Research is Needed? Risk Assessment Dynamic Systems Analysis Behavioral Research Policy Analysis
  24. 24. Thank You More information about IIASA at: www.iiasa.ac.at

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