Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comThe Global RFID Market andFuture ProspectsRaghu Das / r.das@IDTechEx.comIDTech...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comAgenda• About IDTechEx Research• RFID: The Big Picture• A Brief history of pas...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comOverview of IDTechExIDTechEx provides market research that guides your critica...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comLeading companies are our research clients
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comRFID Technologies: The Big PictureTechnologytypeMain Options Highest volumeapp...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comRFID Choices of Parameter are AstronomicMagnitude of ChoicesFrequency 3 Hz to ...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comA Brief History of RFIDCumulative sales of tags from 1943 to the start of 2013...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comA brief history of passive HF RFIDManufactureCost TodayApplicationmaturityMain...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comA brief history of passive UHF RFIDManufactureCost TodayApplicationmaturityMai...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comUHF passive RFID in retail – direct fit tothe hype cycle curve1999 2004 2008 2...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comCumulative sales in millions of tags from1943 to the start of 2012ApplicationN...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comIn 2012, passive UHF overtook HF for thefirst time by numbers of tagsApplicati...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com… but lags considerably by valueApplication 2012 2013Contactlesscards/fobs 165...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPassive RFID Interrogator Outlook 2013TypeNumber(millions)Market size ($millio...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comTotal RFID Market Size and Outlook$Billions2013 - $8.27 Billion• Cards $3.2bn;...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPassive RFID Value ChainLicensors of inventions and consultantsBIGGEST ORDERS ...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comManufacturing Labels, tickets and cardsSource: IDTechExComponents and other ra...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comTag Price ComparisonsComponent Typical cost today for UHF Typical cost today f...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPassive UHF RFID – after the shakeoutMain passive UHF inlay manufacturers in 2...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comAbout1,000 RFIDcompaniesglobally$100+ millionAllflex AustraliaAssa Abloy Europ...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com2013 RFID value chain positioning• 2008-2012 saw a much needed consolidation i...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comCase Study Analysis: What are the “hot”applications and why?Rapidly growing ap...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFID2005: Passive UHF RFID neededto find a problem it co...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFIDThe problem“” Stockouts at clothing retailers cancos...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFIDWhy tagging apparel with RFID is successful:•Minimal...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFIDResults:•Retailers interviewed by IDTechEx report sa...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com2. Asset tracking/inventory2013: passive UHF 400 million tagsLeveraging the hi...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com3. Transit TicketingThe Problem: Growing cities need an efficienttransportatio...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com4. Animal TaggingThe Problem: Food traceability, identifying disease, stopping...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com4. Animal TaggingGovernment mandates force RFID adoption.Tags can also help fa...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com4. Animal TaggingRFID vendor case study:Allflex, animal tagging solutions comp...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comGovernment has so far driven RFIDadoption more than industryLargest orders are...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comCase StudyAssessmentfrom the RFIDKnowledgebaseIDTechEx has tracked 4,603case s...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comProject Status
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comFrequency Band
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comApplication
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1 2 3WSNRTLSConventionalGeneration 1 = Conventional active RFID433MHz, 2.45GHz...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comEnvisaged applications for WSNEnergy SavingPredictiveMaintenanceImprove Produc...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comEnergy Harvesting to overcome battery lifetimelimitations?Deployed in 300,000 ...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com*Software, infrastructure, installation, commissioning etcACTIVE PASSIVESmall ...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comActive RFID / RTLS / WSN• End users have a large choice of different protocols...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comNFC/RFID enabled cellphones• NFC – a standard of standards: ISO 14443 A;ISO 14...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comOptions for ultra low cost “tags”?Printed electronics will not impact Si RFID ...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comThe Internet of Things (again)Term developed by MIT Auto IDCenter in 2000. UHF...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comTrends by TerritoryNorth America32%Europe32%East Asia33%South America1%?Strong...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comSummary and Conclusions• Great time to get involved in RFID− End users can see...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comFor more read:www.IDTechEx/research
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comwww.IDTechEx.com / r.das@IDTechEx.comIDTechEx provides ongoing support to your...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPresenter – Raghu DasRaghu Das, CEO of IDTechEx, studied physics at the Univer...
Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comVaried company positioningLicensors of inventions and consultantsBIGGEST ORDER...
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I International Workshop RFID and IoT - Dia 20 - The Global RFID Market and Future Prospects - Dr. Raghu Das - IDTechEX Ltd

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The Global RFID Market and Future Prospects - Dr. Raghu Das - IDTechEX Ltd

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I International Workshop RFID and IoT - Dia 20 - The Global RFID Market and Future Prospects - Dr. Raghu Das - IDTechEX Ltd

  1. 1. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comThe Global RFID Market andFuture ProspectsRaghu Das / r.das@IDTechEx.comIDTechEx / www.IDTechEx.com
  2. 2. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comAgenda• About IDTechEx Research• RFID: The Big Picture• A Brief history of passive HF and UHF RFID• Market Size analysis• Value Chain and Tag cost analysis• Case Study analysis• New technology trends• Summary
  3. 3. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comOverview of IDTechExIDTechEx provides market research that guides your critical strategicbusiness decisions on printed electronics, electric vehicles, emergingmaterials, energy harvesting, energy storage and RFID/WSN. We provide:− Market research reports− Events− ConsultancyWe are technical, impartial and experienced in our chosen research topics.•Globally cited analyst team combining technical analysts (most have PhDs)and successful business leaders.•Global Research: in Q1 2013 we visited Japan, USA, Germany, BelgiumFrance, UK, The Netherlands, Canada, etc•Hundreds of interviews are conducted each year as part of our globalresearch programmes with organisations across the value chain•60,000 global contacts in our targeted contact database of the RFID, RTLSand WSN industry
  4. 4. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comLeading companies are our research clients
  5. 5. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comRFID Technologies: The Big PictureTechnologytypeMain Options Highest volumeapplicationNo. oftags 2013Custom“chipless”Magnetics, printedconductors, transistorsPromotional vouchers,access control10’s ofmillionsPassive RFID LF, HF, UHF HF – contactless cardsUHF – apparelBillionsBatteryassistedpassive RFIDHF, UHF. Improveperformance or addsensingLogistics (performance)Medical (sensing)100’s ofthousandsActive RFID 1st Gen. Point to point2nd Gen. Real TimeLocation SystemsRTLS3rd Gen. Mesh WSN1st Gen. Car clickers2nd Gen. Medical andmanufacturing3rd Gen. Smart meters10’s ofmillionsIncreasingcost
  6. 6. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comRFID Choices of Parameter are AstronomicMagnitude of ChoicesFrequency 3 Hz to 30 GHz 10Order number 1 to 1 billion 9Range 40 microns to 400m + 7Tag size 0.1 to 10M Cubic mm 8Tag price 0.1¢ to $1,000 6Project cost $0.6k to $6bn 7One order of magnitude is a 10x differenceRFID is an enabling technology –not a single productAdopters need to consider the bestRFID solution for the problemHuge Opportunity for Vendors:RFID has widespread application toalmost all forms of humanendeavourWhat are the best markets toprioritize? What is the optimal valuechain positioning?
  7. 7. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comA Brief History of RFIDCumulative sales of tags from 1943 to the start of 2013•DIGITALLY‐ENCODED LOW COST RFID TAGS ABOVE 0.1cm RANGE•Worldwide sales cumulative numbers for cards, labels, fobs•Chip 19.9 billion  (2012 – 4.8 billion sold)− Passive:   19 billion− Active/RTLS:  910 million•Chipless 230 million
  8. 8. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comA brief history of passive HF RFIDManufactureCost TodayApplicationmaturityMainapplicationsApplicationprofileProfitability6.8 to 17.5 +US centsMature withsomestandardsbeing setwell over adecade ago• Contactlesscards (transit,access, ID,payments)• Tickets• Passports• Books• Medical• Assets/toolsStronglygovernmentdriven ratherthan industrydrivenUsuallystronglyprofitableHF RFID (13.56MHz):10.4 billion tags (labels, cards, fobs)sold to 2013
  9. 9. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comA brief history of passive UHF RFIDManufactureCost TodayApplicationmaturityMainapplicationsApplicationprofileProfitability4.7 to 14.5 +US centsEmbryonic • Retail apparel,shoes• Medical• Assets/toolsinventory• Logistics,conveyances• Airline baggageIndustrydriven ratherthangovernmentdriven. Somegov. now e.g.road tollingShakeout andconsolidationin recentyears. A feware profitableon anoperatinglevelUHF RFID (around 900MHz):6.8 billion tags (labels etc)sold to 2013
  10. 10. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comUHF passive RFID in retail – direct fit tothe hype cycle curve1999 2004 2008 2012Wild enthusiasm that tens of billions of pallets/ cases could have sub 10 cent tags and  trillions of items a year in supermarkets lower cost tagsWal‐Mart, Metro etc mandate some CPG suppliers to tag pallets/cases. CPG co’s and the RFID industry lose $100’s millions trying to comply. Mandate withdraws. Technically difficult.AttitudeMIT conceptof low costtags oneverythingMarks & Spencer does it right with focus on ROI in manageable infrastructure, others do the samePeriod of huge investment Period of consolidation Sustainableprofitablegrowth
  11. 11. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comCumulative sales in millions of tags from1943 to the start of 2012ApplicationNumber(millions)Biggest markets bynumberDrugs and healthcare 227Retail apparel and CPG Pallet/case 2360 2 – mostly UHFConsumer goods 75Tires 0.1Postal 45Books 640Manufacturing parts, tools 606Archiving (documents/samples) 44Military 293Smart cards/payment key fobs 4940 1 – mostly HFSmart tickets 1715 3 – mostly HFAir baggage 345Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes 252Animals (Livestock and Pets) 886 4 – mostly LFVehicles 60People (excludes other sectors) 112Car clickers 780 5 – LF and active RFIDPassport page/secure documents 335Other tag applications 1382Total 15097.1• Very diverse,unrelatedapplications,addressingdifferent problems• Room for differenttechnologies
  12. 12. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comIn 2012, passive UHF overtook HF for thefirst time by numbers of tagsApplication 2012 2013Contactlesscards/fobs 1100 1250Smart tickets 500 600Books 85 90Medical 20 22Assets/tools 100 105Passports 70 75People 4 5NFC apps (notpayment) 1 3Other 20 25Total 1900 2175Passive UHF (millions) Passive HF (millions)[ LF 527million 2012, 646 million2013 ]CAGR based on IDTechEx research 2012-2018: UHF 33% HF 14%Application 2012 2013Retail apparel, shoes 1675 2200Retail items other 20 25Logistics, roll cagesconveyances 100 125Asset management/inventory 400 500Medical/health care 15 18Air baggage andcargo 70 72AccessControl/ticketing 1.2 1.5Embedded 10 15People 20 22Other 50 65Total 2361.2 3043.5
  13. 13. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com… but lags considerably by valueApplication 2012 2013Contactlesscards/fobs 1650 1812.5Smart tickets 55 63Books 15.3 15.3Medical 3.6 3.74Assets/tools 18 17.85Passports 224 232.5People 4 5NFCapplications 0.18 0.51Other 3.6 4.25Total 1974 2154Passive UHF ($ millions) Passive HF ($ millions)[ LF $619million 2012, $713million 2013 ]2012 2013Retail apparel andfootwear 127.3 162.8Retail-other 1.52 1.85Logistics 14.0 16.9Asset management/inventory 56 67.5Medical/health care 1.1 1.3Air baggage 5.32 5.328Access Control/ticketing 0.0912 0.111Embedded 0.25 0.375People 2.8 2.97Other 3.8 4.8Total 212 263
  14. 14. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPassive RFID Interrogator Outlook 2013TypeNumber(millions)Market size ($millions)UHF Fixed portal 0.035 47UHF Embedded and handheld 0.24 90HF and LF Hand held, fixed,embedded 5.5 770LF Vehicle 26 78NFC Cellphone 250 525Total 282 1510• HF readers are simpler devices – can cost $10’s of dollars. UHF are morecomplex devices.• NFC: the world’s biggest RFID reader infrastructure is barely used today!Driven by product differentiation. Hope for build it and they will come?
  15. 15. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comTotal RFID Market Size and Outlook$Billions2013 - $8.27 Billion• Cards $3.2bn; Labels/tickets/fobs $5.07bn• Passive $7.29bn; Active $0.98bn
  16. 16. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPassive RFID Value ChainLicensors of inventions and consultantsBIGGEST ORDERS so far$50M $50M >$111M $6000MChipsChip +antennamodulesLabel rollsanddispensersSystemOperatorsand FacilitiesManagementSystemSellers,VARs,channelpartnersandIntegratorsInterrogationElectronicsSoftwareHorizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising)Antennas
  17. 17. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comManufacturing Labels, tickets and cardsSource: IDTechExComponents and other raw materialsEquipmentSubstrate, inks,other rawmaterialsRFID chipsLabel stock rawmaterialsManufactureRFIDantennaFinish (andapply)label, ticketor cardPopulateRFIDcircuitProduceRFIDlabel, ticketor cardRFIDantennaRFIDtagsRFID Enabledlabels etcproducts ofcommerceRFID chipmanufacturingequipmentRFID antennamanufacturingequipmentRFID enabled labelsetc manufacturingequipmentlabel applicators andprinter applicatorsFor highest volume markets, there is insufficient tag price to give profit to allthe companies doing little bits of this value chain. Oversupply in 2005-2010,now consolidated
  18. 18. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comTag Price ComparisonsComponent Typical cost today for UHF Typical cost today for HFChip 1.8 - 6 US cents or more e.g.UHF EPC Gen22 - 20 US cents or more,depending on chip.Chip attach (e.g. flip chip) 1.1 – 2.5 US cents 1.5 – 2.5 US centsAdhesive – chip to substrate 0.4 US cents (e.g. fromDelo)0.4 US centsAntenna and substrate 1 - 2 US cent from variousvendors2.5 US cent from variousvendorsAntenna manufactureequipment depreciation,processing cost0.1 to 1 US cents dependingon equipment cost, energyrequired etc0.1 to 1 US cents (usuallyslightly more than UHFwhere HF tags are larger)Cost of non working tags i.e.yield due to defects.Automated machines mayachieve 96 to 99% yield0.3 to 0.6 US cents 0.3 to 0.6 US centsTotal typical cost range pertag (volume dependent)4.7 to 14.5 cents or more 6.8 to 17.5 cents or more
  19. 19. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPassive UHF RFID – after the shakeoutMain passive UHF inlay manufacturers in 2012Company Marketshare*IDTechEx CommentAvery Dennison 1 Took a big loss but withstood the shakeout,profitable operation but may not have recoupedinvestment yet. Belatedly moved into HFSmartrac 1 Highly profitable. LF and HF for access, passportsetc. Acquired UPM’s UHF businessAlienTechnology2 Took a big loss but withstood shakeout. May haveprofitable operation but not recouped investment.Moved downstream, offering readers.Others e.g.Invengo, etc3 Chinese and others enter. Many smaller operationswith custom antennas for different applications* IDTechEx estimate
  20. 20. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comAbout1,000 RFIDcompaniesglobally$100+ millionAllflex AustraliaAssa Abloy EuropeAvery Dennison USNedap EuropeNXP EuropeSmartrac Europe3M US$20-$100 millionAeroScout/Stanley US/ IsraelAlien Technology USASK FranceDatamars, EuropeFeig, GermanyHP USAIdentive Group Europe/USImpinj USMotorola USUbisense UKZebra USUnder $20 millionMajorityIDTechExestimates
  21. 21. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com2013 RFID value chain positioning• 2008-2012 saw a much needed consolidation in tag manufacture(UHF RFID)• Successful companies on the left engaged with end users for pullthrough demand• Biggest orders are on the right of the value chain – systemssupply/management• Systems integration tends to be localized to a geography or byapplication.• Ultimately, it is all about the value the technology provides, onevendor told IDTechEx “When we called ourselves a RFID companyit was a disaster. When we called ourselves a solutions company wehad success” - Euro180million company
  22. 22. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comCase Study Analysis: What are the “hot”applications and why?Rapidly growing applications for passive RFID are:1.Apparel item level RFID (UHF)− Marks & Spencer apparel, Wal-Mart…2.Asset Tracking/Inventory (UHF) – closed loop− Equipment, tools, inventory, medical …3.Transit Ticketing (HF) - government− transit ticketing4.Animals (LF) – government− Sheep, cows, pigs…
  23. 23. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFID2005: Passive UHF RFID neededto find a problem it could fix.− Retail pallet/cases was notthe answer. Payback wasuncertain and probably notthat much vs hugeinvestment needed.− It only promised costreduction. Retailers andCPG companies, however,want more sales (and havelarger budget here)− Technically too difficult atthe timePerhaps ironically, item leveltagging happened first…
  24. 24. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFIDThe problem“” Stockouts at clothing retailers cancost six percent of sales. A quarter ofthese items are typically in the retailer’sstore.””“” Some specialty retailers will only haveone or two items of a particular color orsize on the floor.””
  25. 25. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFIDWhy tagging apparel with RFID is successful:•Minimal infrastructure cost per store – initially 2 handhelds, and one portal on average – approx $5Kinvestment•Suits technical capability of passive UHF•Payback does not break down if some tags are notread - something good is better than nothing•Typically high value or high replenishment items•Relatively easy process change – non RFID labelswere previously applied to clothing
  26. 26. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1. Apparel Item Level RFIDResults:•Retailers interviewed by IDTechEx report sales upliftfrom 4 to 20% without increasing stock levels.Plus•Reduction in manual stock counts•Better knowledge of where stock is throughout thecompany•Soon: RTLS and EASMany stores are in roll out or full adoptione.g. Walmart, American Apparel, Macy’s, Zara, JCP,Marks & Spencer, Memove…Others are in pilot and evaluation.Total Addressable Market approx. >40 Billion per year(2013 will be approx. 2.2 Billion).
  27. 27. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com2. Asset tracking/inventory2013: passive UHF 400 million tagsLeveraging the high performance nowavailable from UHF G2 at low price points.Applications are very diverse, usually 10,000to a million tags per location, but offer rapidROI (typically 12 months) by increasingefficiency, reducing cost, increasing safety,convenience etc
  28. 28. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com3. Transit TicketingThe Problem: Growing cities need an efficienttransportation system.Contactless card systems deployed in majorcities for frequent users. One-time use“magnetic stripe” tickets cost US $0.04 but needextensive mechanical reader maintenance –costing >$0.1 per ticket.Single use RFID tickets can leverage solid stateinfrastructure and improve passengerthroughput.2013: passive HF 600 million tags(Moscow transit use 25-30 million a month)
  29. 29. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com4. Animal TaggingThe Problem: Food traceability, identifying disease, stopping disease,yielding maximum return on best cattleWidespread diseased meat or unknown food sources can cripple majoreconomies, or terrify consumers!
  30. 30. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com4. Animal TaggingGovernment mandates force RFID adoption.Tags can also help farmers monitor cattleand find best livestock for breeding, wool etc.2013: passive LF (some use HF and UHF)375 million tagsNew laws may only be satisfied by RFID: e.g.EU directive in 2013 calls for animals beingable to roam for a certain amount of time.RTLS providers believe they are the onlyviable solution to monitor cattle health –indeed – they can even detect if a cow ispregnant by how it moves.
  31. 31. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com4. Animal TaggingRFID vendor case study:Allflex, animal tagging solutions company.Bought by Electra in 1998, investing $45million as the EU tightened beef regulationsafter the mad cow disease crisisBecame a leader in animal identificationusing electronic reader technology, implantsand tissue sampling.In May 2013, Electra Partners sold Allflex toprivate equity company BC Partners for about$1.3 billion
  32. 32. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comGovernment has so far driven RFIDadoption more than industryLargest orders are placed by the Government•China National ID Card $6 billion HF•ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active•US DoD $ 1 Billion in orders 433 MHz Active•E-passport infrastructure in 70 countries HF•Animal tagging demanding 375 million tags in 2013 LF•Transportation Systems e.g. London Transport $1.6 Billion HF•US Gov Accountability Office gives $543 million contract to HP RTLSGovernments do not always need ROI like industry – they seek security,safety, efficiency, world-class prominenceUsually, suppliers are highly profitable on these projects
  33. 33. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comCase StudyAssessmentfrom the RFIDKnowledgebaseIDTechEx has tracked 4,603case studies in 124countries. Here are thetrends.US and Europe about equal,Asia rising. South Americagrowing quickly
  34. 34. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comProject Status
  35. 35. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comFrequency Band
  36. 36. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comApplication
  37. 37. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com1 2 3WSNRTLSConventionalGeneration 1 = Conventional active RFID433MHz, 2.45GHz etc. ISO standards existE.g. car clicker $2bn so far, non-stop road toll $0.5 billionorder recently, military supplies $0.5 billionGeneration 2 = Real Time Locating Systems433MHz, 2.45GHz, UHF, WiFi, UWB,Ultrasound…Some large orders emerging but most are small ordersof a few million dollars as yet. Acquisition frenzy andmany newcomersGeneration 3 = Mesh and WSNTags are readers. Form adhoc networks. Monitorcondition.time
  38. 38. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comEnvisaged applications for WSNEnergy SavingPredictiveMaintenanceImprove ProductivitySmart HomeHealthcareImprove Food & H20Remote Controls GamingPrice DisplayTransport and AssetsTrackingSource: Jennic
  39. 39. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comEnergy Harvesting to overcome battery lifetimelimitations?Deployed in 300,000 buildings, mainlyas switches and sensorsEvaluated by car companiesUsed in trains, aircraft etc
  40. 40. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com*Software, infrastructure, installation, commissioning etcACTIVE PASSIVESmall project Large project Small project Large projectTag cost 10% 30% 20% 50%Other cost* 90% 70% 80% 50%Cost structure of active vs passive RFIDprojects
  41. 41. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comActive RFID / RTLS / WSN• End users have a large choice of different protocols – some maybecome obsolete. So-called interoperable systems are sometimes not.Standards may not be optimal. It is confusing!• The successes are typically in small, closed loop installations withproven ROI rolled out in a “cookie cutter” approach• Start-ups that became successful tend to have a strong software andhardware offering, provide a complete solution, and do someintegration.• As with passive, big orders are government driven e.g. $543 millioncontract to HP, US DoD orders totalling over $1 billion, smart metermandate
  42. 42. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comNFC/RFID enabled cellphones• NFC – a standard of standards: ISO 14443 A;ISO 14443 B; Sony “type C”• Enabled by Samsung, Nokia etc seekingproduct differentiation in smart phones• Can enable a huge RFID infrastructure at nocost to retailers, consumers etc – far biggerthan any other RFID network, with 250 millionRFID phones to be sold in 2013• Beyond payments and data sharing, use casesare small scale, pilots. Business models notmature.• Many retailers we interview say that they arewaiting for Apple to adopt NFCA ubiquitous RFID reader network…
  43. 43. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comOptions for ultra low cost “tags”?Printed electronics will not impact Si RFID IC, may be used for the antenna, but it willenable smart packaging/ products etc and use the interface as RF power.
  44. 44. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comThe Internet of Things (again)Term developed by MIT Auto IDCenter in 2000. UHF RFID industryis much more pragmatic today.Different services, technologies,meanings.Now often used by those in wirelesssensors, smart devices, M2M etc.>> the challenge will be linking upthese disparate systems that do nocommunicate with each other today.>> potential to confuse end users.IoT is a vision but users want to seereal added value. IoT is a system butusers want solutions: we need todefine what the solution (and beforethat, the problem!) is.>> scope to be driven by consumers– e.g. LBS, Google, Apple, Samsungetc
  45. 45. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comTrends by TerritoryNorth America32%Europe32%East Asia33%South America1%?Strong Gov.BackingStrong UHF, HFMany in roll-outStrong supplierbaseStrong Gov.BackingStrong HF, LFand UHFMany in roll- outStrong supplierbase (but morelocalised bycountry/fragmented)Strong Gov.BackingStrong HF, LFMany in trials,some roll-outRapidly growingsupplier base,country specificStrong Gov.Backing nowcoming in placeMore and more intrials, a few roll-outsEmergingsupplier base- Fabs comingonline in Braziletc
  46. 46. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comSummary and Conclusions• Great time to get involved in RFID− End users can see the benefits from competitors/other industries;− Good reference case studies exist;− Technology performance vs cost is very good thanks to others investinghuge amounts over the past decade which you can leverage• Huge opportunities exist: still a very embryonic industry which has barelytouched most application segments• Governments have driven many RFID projects. Industry now waking up.• Be careful of hype – that is not where the profit may be. Know what theproblem/driver is.
  47. 47. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comFor more read:www.IDTechEx/research
  48. 48. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comwww.IDTechEx.com / r.das@IDTechEx.comIDTechEx provides ongoing support to your business and carries out specialprojects: market and technology appraisal, competitive assessment,masterclasses, technology forecasting, acquisition and investment targets,opportunity evaluation …Offices:USA Tel: + 1 617 577 7890UK Tel: + 44 1223 813703Germany Tel: + 49 3020659 455IDTechEx supportsyour strategic business decisionson emerging technologies
  49. 49. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comPresenter – Raghu DasRaghu Das, CEO of IDTechEx, studied physics at the Universityof Cambridge. He has been closely involved with thedevelopment of RFID and printed electronics for fourteen years,carrying out consultancy in Europe, USA, Asia and the MiddleEast. Examples of recent work includes:•Mr Das has completed a study for a $73 billion public organization inthe US, benchmarking its internal processes and new identificationsystem against RFID.•A major systems integrator wanted to buy an RFID company. Mr Dasprovided due diligence and based on our advice they decided not toinvest.•Providing consulting for a $40 billion company who was looking toparticipate in the printed electronics market and leverage their expertiseas a global materials company…Contact r.das@IDTechEx.com Tel: +44 (0) 1223 813703
  50. 50. Copyright © 2013 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.comVaried company positioningLicensors of inventions and consultantsBIGGEST ORDERS so far$50M $50M >$111M $6000MChipsChip +antennamodulesLabel rollsanddispensersSystemOperatorsand FacilitiesManagementSystemSellers,VARs,channelpartnersandIntegratorsInterrogationElectronicsSoftwareHorizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising)Antennas

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