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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 U.S. Senate Primary Results
1. Democratic Senate Primary 1
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Primary_Screen
Democratic 80%
Republican 15%
Neither 2%
Unsure 2%
Total 100%
DemSenate
Hirono 46%
Case 47%
Neither 1%
Unsure 6%
Total 100%
FYI—GOP Senate; Sample Size = 223; Margin of Error +/- 6.6%
GOPSenate
Lingle 84%
Carroll 11%
Neither 4%
Unsure 2%
Total 100%
…And Continuing with Democratic Senate Primary Voters Only…
Vote_Screen
Already voted 30%
Definitely voting 68%
Might vote 2%
Total 100%
Senate_Decide
Two weeks 24%
Past month 18%
Month+ 57%
Unsure 1%
Total 100%
2. Democratic Senate Primary 2
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Rail = Oahu Only; Sample Size = 848; Margin of Error +/- 3.2%
Rail
Support 42%
Oppose 52%
Unsure 6%
Total 100%
Ads
A lot 25%
A little 39%
None 32%
Unsure 3%
Total 100%
Debates
A lot 42%
A little 30%
None 23%
Unsure 4%
Total 100%
News
A lot 41%
A little 39%
None 17%
Unsure 4%
Total 100%
3. Democratic Senate Primary 3
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Endorsements
A lot 12%
A little 30%
None 54%
Unsure 4%
Total 100%
Own_Research
A lot 57%
A little 29%
None 9%
Unsure 5%
Total 100%
4. Democratic Senate Primary 4
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Obama
Approve strongly 54%
Approve somewhat 21%
Disapprove somewhat 11%
Disapprove strongly 13%
Unsure 2%
Total 100%
Obama_Condensed
Approve 74%
Disapprove 24%
Unsure 2%
Total 100%
Gender
Male 44%
Female 56%
Total 100%
Age
18-29 3%
30-39 3%
40-49 13%
50-64 42%
65+ 39%
Total 100%
Ethnicity
Caucasian 37%
Japanese 26%
Filipino 8%
Hawaiian 10%
Chinese 7%
Hispanic/Latino 2%
Other/Mixed 11%
Total 100%
5. Democratic Senate Primary 5
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Politics
Liberal/Progressive 28%
Moderate 41%
Conservative 16%
Unsure 15%
Total 100%
Party
Democrat 59%
Republican 8%
Independent 27%
Unsure 6%
Total 100%
Education
No degree 3%
High School Degree 28%
College Degree 40%
Graduate Degree 29%
Total 100%
Religion
Catholic 26%
Evangelical 10%
Mormon 3%
Other Christian 20%
Buddhist 12%
Other 7%
None 22%
Total 100%
6. Democratic Senate Primary 6
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Military_Family
Yes 14%
No 86%
Total 100%
Union_Househod
Yes 33%
No 67%
Total 100%
7. Democratic Senate Primary 7
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
Relationship_Status
Married 63%
Civil Partnership 5%
Single 13%
Divorced/Separated 9%
Widowed 10%
Total 100%
Income_Household
$50,000 or less 34%
$50,000-$100,000 41%
$100,000 or more 25%
Total 100%
County_CD
Oahu 1 51%
Oahu 2 18%
Hawaii 14%
Maui 10%
Kauai 6%
Total 100%
8. Democratic Senate Primary 8
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
CROSSTABS
DemSenate * Vote_Screen Crosstabulation
% within Vote_Screen
Vote_Screen
Already Definitely
voted voting Might vote Total
DemSenate Hirono 51% 42% 60% 46%
Case 44% 49% 13% 47%
Neither 1% 2% 0% 1%
Unsure 3% 7% 27% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Vote_Screen * DemSenate Crosstabulation
% within DemSenate
DemSenate
Hirono Case Neither Unsure Total
Vote_Screen Already voted 34% 28% 17% 17% 30%
Definitely voting 64% 71% 83% 78% 68%
Might vote 2% 0% 0% 6% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemSenate * Senate_Decide Crosstabulation
% within Senate_Decide
Senate_Decide
Two weeks Past month Month+ Unsure
DemSenate Hirono 39% 45% 54% 76%
Case 61% 55% 46% 24%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
9. Democratic Senate Primary 9
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
DemSenate * Rail Crosstabulation
% within Rail
Rail
Support Oppose Unsure Total
DemSenate Hirono 51% 34% 43% 42%
Case 42% 59% 33% 50%
Neither 2% 1% 0% 1%
Unsure 5% 6% 24% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemSenate * Ads Crosstabulation
% within Ads
Ads
A lot A little None Unsure Total
DemSenate Hirono 50% 51% 39% 25% 46%
Case 43% 43% 55% 47% 47%
Neither 3% 1% 2% 0% 1%
Unsure 5% 6% 4% 28% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemSenate * Debates Crosstabulation
% within Debates
Debates
A lot A little None Unsure Total
DemSenate Hirono 44% 41% 57% 40% 46%
Case 50% 54% 36% 29% 47%
Neither 2% 1% 2% 4% 1%
Unsure 5% 4% 5% 27% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemSenate * News Crosstabulation
% within News
News
A lot A little None Unsure Total
DemSenate Hirono 48% 43% 49% 41% 46%
Case 46% 51% 45% 27% 47%
Neither 1% 2% 0% 5% 1%
Unsure 5% 4% 5% 27% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
10. Democratic Senate Primary 10
July 31 – August 2, 2012
Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%
DemSenate * Endorsements Crosstabulation
% within Endorsements
Endorsements
A lot A little None Unsure Total
DemSenate Hirono 64% 53% 38% 45% 46%
Case 30% 39% 57% 22% 47%
Neither 2% 1% 1% 6% 1%
Unsure 3% 7% 4% 27% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemSenate * Own_Research Crosstabulation
% within Own_Research
Own_Research
A lot A little None Unsure Total
DemSenate Hirono 46% 49% 36% 44% 46%
Case 50% 44% 49% 28% 47%
Neither 1% 1% 4% 5% 1%
Unsure 3% 6% 11% 23% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%