Civil Beat Poll August 2012 U.S. Senate Primary Results

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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 U.S. Senate Primary Results

  1. 1. Democratic Senate Primary 1 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% Primary_Screen Democratic 80% Republican 15% Neither 2% Unsure 2% Total 100% DemSenate Hirono 46% Case 47% Neither 1% Unsure 6% Total 100%FYI—GOP Senate; Sample Size = 223; Margin of Error +/- 6.6% GOPSenate Lingle 84% Carroll 11% Neither 4% Unsure 2% Total 100%…And Continuing with Democratic Senate Primary Voters Only… Vote_Screen Already voted 30% Definitely voting 68% Might vote 2% Total 100% Senate_Decide Two weeks 24% Past month 18% Month+ 57% Unsure 1% Total 100%
  2. 2. Democratic Senate Primary 2 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%Rail = Oahu Only; Sample Size = 848; Margin of Error +/- 3.2% Rail Support 42% Oppose 52% Unsure 6% Total 100% Ads A lot 25% A little 39% None 32% Unsure 3% Total 100% Debates A lot 42% A little 30% None 23% Unsure 4% Total 100% News A lot 41% A little 39% None 17% Unsure 4% Total 100%
  3. 3. Democratic Senate Primary 3 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% EndorsementsA lot 12%A little 30%None 54%Unsure 4%Total 100% Own_ResearchA lot 57%A little 29%None 9%Unsure 5%Total 100%
  4. 4. Democratic Senate Primary 4 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% ObamaApprove strongly 54%Approve somewhat 21%Disapprove somewhat 11%Disapprove strongly 13%Unsure 2%Total 100% Obama_CondensedApprove 74%Disapprove 24%Unsure 2%Total 100% GenderMale 44%Female 56%Total 100% Age18-29 3%30-39 3%40-49 13%50-64 42%65+ 39%Total 100% EthnicityCaucasian 37%Japanese 26%Filipino 8%Hawaiian 10%Chinese 7%Hispanic/Latino 2%Other/Mixed 11%Total 100%
  5. 5. Democratic Senate Primary 5 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% PoliticsLiberal/Progressive 28%Moderate 41%Conservative 16%Unsure 15%Total 100% PartyDemocrat 59%Republican 8%Independent 27%Unsure 6%Total 100% EducationNo degree 3%High School Degree 28%College Degree 40%Graduate Degree 29%Total 100% ReligionCatholic 26%Evangelical 10%Mormon 3%Other Christian 20%Buddhist 12%Other 7%None 22%Total 100%
  6. 6. Democratic Senate Primary 6 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% Military_FamilyYes 14%No 86%Total 100% Union_HousehodYes 33%No 67%Total 100%
  7. 7. Democratic Senate Primary 7 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% Relationship_StatusMarried 63%Civil Partnership 5%Single 13%Divorced/Separated 9%Widowed 10%Total 100% Income_Household$50,000 or less 34%$50,000-$100,000 41%$100,000 or more 25%Total 100% County_CDOahu 1 51%Oahu 2 18%Hawaii 14%Maui 10%Kauai 6%Total 100%
  8. 8. Democratic Senate Primary 8 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8%CROSSTABS DemSenate * Vote_Screen Crosstabulation% within Vote_Screen Vote_Screen Already Definitely voted voting Might vote TotalDemSenate Hirono 51% 42% 60% 46% Case 44% 49% 13% 47% Neither 1% 2% 0% 1% Unsure 3% 7% 27% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Vote_Screen * DemSenate Crosstabulation% within DemSenate DemSenate Hirono Case Neither Unsure TotalVote_Screen Already voted 34% 28% 17% 17% 30% Definitely voting 64% 71% 83% 78% 68% Might vote 2% 0% 0% 6% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Senate_Decide Crosstabulation% within Senate_Decide Senate_Decide Two weeks Past month Month+ UnsureDemSenate Hirono 39% 45% 54% 76% Case 61% 55% 46% 24%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  9. 9. Democratic Senate Primary 9 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 51% 34% 43% 42% Case 42% 59% 33% 50% Neither 2% 1% 0% 1% Unsure 5% 6% 24% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Ads Crosstabulation% within Ads Ads A lot A little None Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 50% 51% 39% 25% 46% Case 43% 43% 55% 47% 47% Neither 3% 1% 2% 0% 1% Unsure 5% 6% 4% 28% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Debates Crosstabulation% within Debates Debates A lot A little None Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 44% 41% 57% 40% 46% Case 50% 54% 36% 29% 47% Neither 2% 1% 2% 4% 1% Unsure 5% 4% 5% 27% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * News Crosstabulation% within News News A lot A little None Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 48% 43% 49% 41% 46% Case 46% 51% 45% 27% 47% Neither 1% 2% 0% 5% 1% Unsure 5% 4% 5% 27% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  10. 10. Democratic Senate Primary 10 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Endorsements Crosstabulation% within Endorsements Endorsements A lot A little None Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 64% 53% 38% 45% 46% Case 30% 39% 57% 22% 47% Neither 2% 1% 1% 6% 1% Unsure 3% 7% 4% 27% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Own_Research Crosstabulation% within Own_Research Own_Research A lot A little None Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 46% 49% 36% 44% 46% Case 50% 44% 49% 28% 47% Neither 1% 1% 4% 5% 1% Unsure 3% 6% 11% 23% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  11. 11. Democratic Senate Primary 11 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 57% 51% 25% 10% 42% 46% Case 38% 42% 68% 79% 15% 47% Neither 1% 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% Unsure 4% 5% 6% 9% 42% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama * DemSenate Crosstabulation% within DemSenate DemSenate Hirono Case Neither Unsure TotalObama Approve strongly 67% 44% 35% 35% 54% Approve somewhat 23% 18% 35% 18% 21% Disapprove somewhat 6% 15% 12% 11% 11% Disapprove strongly 3% 22% 18% 21% 13% Unsure 2% 1% 0% 15% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  12. 12. Democratic Senate Primary 12 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed Obama_Condensed Approve Disapprove Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 55% 16% 42% 46% Case 39% 74% 15% 47% Neither 1% 2% 0% 1% Unsure 4% 8% 42% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama_Condensed * DemSenate Crosstabulation% within DemSenate DemSenate Hirono Case Neither Unsure TotalObama_Condensed Approve 90% 62% 72% 53% 74% Disapprove 8% 37% 28% 32% 23% Unsure 2% 1% 0% 15% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  13. 13. Democratic Senate Primary 13 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male Female TotalDemSenate Hirono 43% 48% 46% Case 51% 44% 47% Neither 2% 1% 1% Unsure 4% 7% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ TotalDemSenate Hirono 55% 41% 54% 44% 44% 46% Case 38% 34% 40% 49% 49% 47% Neither 5% 2% 1% 2% 1% Unsure 7% 20% 5% 6% 5% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Ethnicity Ethnicity Hispanic/ Other/ Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Latino Mixed TotalDemSenat Hirono 46% 49% 43% 44% 36% 32% 48% 46%e Case 50% 45% 47% 47% 50% 58% 41% 47% Neither 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 1% 1% Unsure 3% 5% 10% 6% 10% 11% 10% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion Religion Other Catholic Evangelical Mormon Christian Buddhist Other None TotalDemSenat Hirono 46% 37% 52% 37% 60% 61% 45% 46%e Case 46% 51% 45% 57% 39% 34% 47% 47% Neither 2% 6% 0% 0% 2% 1% Unsure 6% 7% 3% 6% 1% 5% 7% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  14. 14. Democratic Senate Primary 14 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 67% 40% 22% 48% 46% Case 30% 55% 66% 38% 47% Neither 0% 1% 3% 3% 1% Unsure 3% 4% 8% 12% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Party Crosstabulation% within Party Party Democrat Republican Independent Unsure TotalDemSenate Hirono 58% 18% 30% 30% 46% Case 37% 74% 63% 43% 47% Neither 1% 2% 1% 6% 1% Unsure 4% 5% 6% 21% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Party * DemSenate Crosstabulation% within DemSenate DemSenate Hirono Case Neither Unsure TotalParty Democrat 75% 46% 41% 43% 59% Republican 3% 12% 12% 7% 8% Independent 18% 37% 24% 28% 27% Unsure 4% 5% 24% 22% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  15. 15. Democratic Senate Primary 15 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High School College Graduate No degree Degree Degree Degree TotalDemSenate Hirono 62% 50% 39% 49% 46% Case 24% 43% 51% 48% 47% Neither 9% 2% 1% 1% 1% Unsure 6% 5% 8% 2% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No TotalDemSenate Hirono 43% 46% 46% Case 46% 48% 47% Neither 3% 1% 1% Unsure 8% 5% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Union_Househod Crosstabulation% within Union_Househod Union_Househod Yes No TotalDemSenate Hirono 51% 43% 46% Case 41% 50% 47% Neither 3% 1% 1% Unsure 5% 5% 6%Total 100% 100% 100%
  16. 16. Democratic Senate Primary 16 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Relationship_Status Crosstabulation% within Relationship_Status Relationship_Status Civil Married Partnership Single Divorced/Separated Widowed TotalDemSenate Hirono 45% 60% 49% 46% 42% 46% Case 49% 38% 41% 47% 49% 47% Neither 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Unsure 4% 2% 8% 7% 8% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * Income_Household Crosstabulation% within Income_Household Income_Household $50,000 or $50,000- $100,000 less $100,000 or more TotalDemSenate Hirono 48% 46% 44% 46% Case 42% 48% 53% 47% Neither 3% 1% 0% 1% Unsure 7% 5% 3% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  17. 17. Democratic Senate Primary 17 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,227; Margin of Error +/- 2.8% DemSenate * Cong_District Crosstabulation% within Cong_District Cong_District 1 2 TotalDemSenate Hirono 43% 49% 46% Case 50% 44% 47% Neither 1% 2% 1% Unsure 6% 6% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * County Crosstabulation% within County County Oahu Hawaii Maui Kauai TotalDemSenate Hirono 42% 55% 63% 43% 46% Case 50% 37% 31% 56% 47% Neither 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Unsure 6% 6% 5% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemSenate * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu 1 Oahu 2 Hawaii Maui Kauai TotalDemSenate Hirono 43% 38% 55% 63% 43% 46% Case 50% 52% 37% 31% 56% 47% Neither 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Unsure 6% 8% 6% 5% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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