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2018 State of the Community Report Presentation

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The State of the Community Report is an annual convening when Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson unveils the latest data tracking the well-being of Greater Chapel Hill and unpacks where we are leading and lagging.

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2018 State of the Community Report Presentation

  1. 1. 2018 State of the Community Report
  2. 2. #CHCSOTC Reagan Greene Pruitt 2018 Chamber Board Chair 2018 State of the Community Report
  3. 3. #CHCSOTC Leadership Graduation Sponsor Denny Marcin Chamber Board of Directors 2018 State of the Community Report
  4. 4. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2018 Leadership Class President Kate Kryder Co-Curricular Leadership Development Program Coordinator UNC-Chapel Hill
  5. 5. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Bonnie Hammersley Orange County Roger Stancil Town of Chapel Hill Data and Research Partners
  6. 6. Presenting Sponsor Jessica Aylor Interim CEO and Vice President of Community Investment 2018 State of the Community Report
  7. 7. #CHCSOTC Aaron Nelson President and CEO Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce 2018 State of the Community Report
  8. 8. Presenting Sponsor
  9. 9. Program Sponsor
  10. 10. Breakfast Sponsor
  11. 11. Networking Sponsor Medical practice that provides comprehensive care for the whole person in a non-judgmental environment.
  12. 12. Leadership Graduation Sponsor
  13. 13. Contributing Sponsors
  14. 14. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Data Produced in Partnership with:
  15. 15. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Official Data Research Partner
  16. 16. 11th Annual State of the Community Report
  17. 17. #CHCSOTC Preview • Demography • Migration • Commuting • Education • Housing • Wages • Poverty • Health #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  18. 18. #CHCSOTC A Few Things First… • Percentage Point vs Percent (10% to 11%) • Data Lag • Adjusting for Inflation • County Lines v zip codes v city limits • 5 year averages • The Quarter and the Ping Pong Paddle 2018 State of the Community Report
  19. 19. Lets Begin Where am I Add #
  20. 20. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  21. 21. Orange County Total Value Per Acre #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source: Urban3
  22. 22. Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Orange County Land Distribution #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill 5% Carrboro 2% Hillsborough 1% Mebane 0.5% Rest of Orange 92%
  23. 23. Southern Orange County Planning Jurisdictions Town of Chapel Hill #CHCSOTC
  24. 24. Orange County 56,494 Housing Units Distribution Percentage #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Chapel Hill 36% Carrboro 17% Hillsborough 4% Mebane 2% Rest of Orange 41%
  25. 25. Who am I? Some Demography #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  26. 26. Chapel Hill Second Highest in Nation with BA+ Percent of Residents 25+ with Bachelors degree or higher (2012-16) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cambridge (MA), 74.9% Chapel Hill, 74.6% Carrboro, 69.1% Orange County, 57.7% Charlottesville (VA), 50.0% Chatham County, 38.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cambridge (MA) Chapel Hill (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Berkeley (CA) Carrboro (NC) Evanston (IL) Amherst (MA) Sunnyvale (CA) Corvallis (OR) Orange County (NC) Santa Clara (CA) Bloomington (IN) Fort Collins (CO) Burlington (VT) Charlottesville (VA) Austin (TX) Tallahassee (FL) Boston (MA) Gainesville (FL) Athens-Clarke County (GA) San Jose (CA) Chatham County (NC) Columbus (OH) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  27. 27. Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State (2016) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Orange $37,103 Chatham $35,109 North Carolina $26,779 Scotland $16,192 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Orange Wake Chatham Mecklenburg Durham Union NewHanover Dare Moore Carteret Brunswick Iredell Currituck Davie Polk Buncombe Cabarrus Forsyth Guilford NorthCarolina Henderson Haywood Camden Lincoln Perquimans Transylvania Craven Macon Pamlico Catawba Nash Pitt Pender Alamance Beaufort Gaston Gates Granville Johnston Cumberland Davidson Clay Watauga Onslow Pasquotank Wilson Rowan Franklin Lee Ashe Madison Chowan Mitchell Stanly Person Stokes Jackson Yadkin Randolph Wayne Avery Yancey Surry Rockingham Harnett Martin Columbus Alleghany Burke Lenoir Cleveland Caldwell Alexander Washington Jones Swain Caswell Wilkes Halifax Montgomery Sampson Rutherford Warren Bladen Richmond Cherokee McDowell Northampton Graham Hyde Hoke Vance Greene Edgecombe Duplin Hertford Anson Bertie Tyrrell Robeson Scotland
  28. 28. 2016 Median Household Income $65,299 $63,303 $54,255 $46,060 $76,173 $50,595 $57,617 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE
  29. 29. #CHCSOTC Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for Inflation) $2016 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Wake County North Carolina United States
  30. 30. #CHCSOTC Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for Inflation) $2016 $65,299$61,796 $54,255 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Orange County Durham County
  31. 31. Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted Median Family Income (1998-2016) Dollar Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) $2016 $3,161 ($2,696) ($7,541) ($8,367) ($5,057) ($2,385) $363 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States
  32. 32. Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted Median Family Income (1998-2016) Percent Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) Inflation Adjusted 5.1% -4.1% -12.2% -15.4% -6.2% -4.5% 0.6% Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States
  33. 33. Orange County Population by Race Source: US Census Bureau; Orange County Planning 80% 76% 71% 69% 16% 14% 12% 11% 1% 4% 8% 9% 3% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 3% 1990 2000 2010 2017 White Black Hispanic Asian Other or Multiracial #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Changes By Decade
  34. 34. Orange Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts 14,847 16,643 12,336 11,823 3,232 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 1990 2000 2010 2017 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  35. 35. Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 4,840 5,460 3,638 1,678 6,786 1,282 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  36. 36. Carrboro Minority Population by Race #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 1,916 1,933 2,706 1,592 430 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  37. 37. Growth History
  38. 38. Population Growth Jurisdiction 2010 2017 Pop Growth Growth Rate Orange County 133,688 144,946 11,258 8.4% (1.1% PY) Hillsborough 6,613 7,231 618 7.9% (1.2% PY) Carrboro 19,564 21,544 1,980 10.1% (1.3% PY) Chapel Hill 57,221 59,862 2,641 4.6% (0.6% PY) North Carolina 9,535,721 10,273,419 737,698 7.7% (1.0% PY) Note: showing April 1, 2010 Estimates Base Source U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  39. 39. Orange County Population Growth Slowest Since 1960s Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2010 Source U.S. Census Bureau 1,901 11,363 8,535 14,737 19,348 16,796 24,376 15,574 11,258 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010- 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  40. 40. 9.0% 49.3% 24.8% 34.3% 33.5% 21.8% 26.0% 13.2% 8.4% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source U.S. Census Bureau Orange County Population Percentage Growth Slowest Since 1930s Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2010
  41. 41. Chatham County Grew By 7,993 in First 8 Years of this Decade Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source: U.S. Census Bureau 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
  42. 42. Source U.S. Census Bureau 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 12.6% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
  43. 43. 7,993 11,193 11,258 41,656 171,144 Chatham County Alamance County Orange County Durham County Wake County Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 #CHCSOTC Source U.S. Census Bureau 2018 State of the Community Report
  44. 44. Migration Drove County Population Growth 2010 - 2017 Components of Orange County's estimated 11,258 person growth, 2010- 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Note: Not shown is the estimated loss of 2 individuals that cannot be attributed to births, deaths, or migration (residual) Source U.S. Census Bureau 11,258 8,872 -5,565 2,802 5,159 Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration International Migration
  45. 45. #CHCSOTC Dr. Rebecca Tippett 2018 State of the Community Report
  46. 46. Migration With Dr. Rebecca Tippett, Carolina Demography
  47. 47. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople AgeSource: Winkler et al., 2013 NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  48. 48. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 No Net Migration #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  49. 49. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Net Out Migration Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  50. 50. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Net In Migration Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  51. 51. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  52. 52. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  53. 53. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Pitt Watauga Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  54. 54. -1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Youth Drain Halifax Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  55. 55. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Employment Center Wake Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  56. 56. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Family Suburbs Johnston Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  57. 57. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Chatham Moore Retiree Destinations Chatham & Moore Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  58. 58. -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  59. 59. -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age White Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  60. 60. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  61. 61. Population Projecting
  62. 62. Three Population Projection Models – Annual Change 20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Geography Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017) Orange 1.8% 1,553 people 1,999 people Chatham 2.5% 1,237people 1,102people Carrboro 2.4% 372 people 273 people Chapel Hill 2.0% 926people 364people Hillsborough 1.8% 91 people 85people
  63. 63. How many people in 2050? Orange County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 271,957 213,701 133,801 195,914 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  64. 64. How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 125,104 94,277 2010-2017 57,233 71,804 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  65. 65. How many people in 2050? Carrboro 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 50,999 34,478 19,582 30,506 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  66. 66. How many people in 2050? Chatham County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 170,482 112,997 107,604 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  67. 67. Carrboro Remains One of the Most Densely Populated Communities in NC People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,108 3,586 4,158 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,031 3,608 4,184 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  68. 68. Chapel Hill Population Density To Increase Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2,583 2,342 2,330 2,710 3,148 3,587 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
  69. 69. 4,246 4,116 4,094 3,948 3,472 3,108 3,037 2,710 3,587 Charlottesville (VA) Burlington (VT) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Carrboro (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Chapel Hill 2030 Chapel Hill in 2030 is Less Dense than Most Peers People Per Square Mile Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  70. 70. Its time to get up and go to work
  71. 71. Orange Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 43,036 drive in, 35,818 drive out, and 20,406 live and work in Orange Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  72. 72. 61% of Orange County Households Have 2+ Cars Share of Households by Number of Vehicles Available, 2012-16 Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey No Vehicles 5% 1 Vehicle 34% 2 Vehicles 38% 3 or More Vehicles 23% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  73. 73. Fewer Orange, Chatham Workers Drive Alone to Work Percent of commuters who drive alone to work, 2012-16 Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey 81% 67% 78% 84% 76% 79% North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  74. 74. Chapel Hill Transit Ridership Down Total Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (in millions), FY2004-FY2017 5.27 7.23 6.94 6.73 6.33 6.18 4.0 6.0 8.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 (millions) Source: Chapel Hill Transit #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  75. 75. 0.71 0.75 0.82 0.87 0.94 1.14 1.09 1.29 1.58 1.77 1.82 1.84 1.78 1.66 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 GoTriangle Ridership Declines 10% from 2015 Peak Total Triangle Transit Ridership, FY2004-FY2017 Source: Triangle Transit #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  76. 76. High Share of Orange, Chatham Workers Work from Home #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 4.8% 8.2% 7.8% 2.7% 4.8% 7.6% North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
  77. 77. 52,698 63,442 48,702 56,224 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jobs in Orange Workers in Orange County Job Growth has not Consistently Translated to More Workers Living in Orange Number of jobs in Orange vs. workers in Orange, 2002-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  78. 78. While Most Orange County Residents Work Elsewhere, Percent Driving Out for Work is Declining from Peak Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 55% 66% 64% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Share of Orange County resident workers who work outside of Orange County, 2002-2015
  79. 79. Younger Workers
  80. 80. Young Workers Living and Working in Orange Increasing Number living and working in Orange County, 29 or younger, highest since 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 4,567 3,625 3,751 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  81. 81. Fewer Workers Under 29 Commuting Out of Orange Number of young workers commuting out of Orange County declining Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7,889 7,495 6,956 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  82. 82. Total People 29 or Younger Working Orange County Increasing (2012 – 2015) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 12,199 12,975 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  83. 83. New Young Workers Driving Into Orange for Work Increasing 2009 through 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8,966 9,224 8,500 8,600 8,700 8,800 8,900 9,000 9,100 9,200 9,300 9,400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  84. 84. Who Works Where
  85. 85. 14,228 12,088 4,662 1909 1635 1596 1324 1297 1037 683 15,765 Chapel Hill town, NC Durham city, NC Raleigh city, NC Hillsborough town, NC Carrboro town, NC Cary town, NC Greensboro city, NC Charlotte city, NC Burlington city, NC Mebane city, NC All Other Locations Where Do Orange County Residents Work? Location of Primary Job, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  86. 86. Where Orange County Residents Work is Changing Location of Primary Job, 2005-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report -2,383 1,141 1,971 259 97 609 298 228 266 14 3,509 Chapel Hill town, NC Durham city, NC Raleigh city, NC Hillsborough town, NC Carrboro town, NC Cary town, NC Greensboro city, NC Charlotte city, NC Burlington city, NC Mebane city, NC All Other Locations
  87. 87. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 38,804 drive in, 18,697 drive out, and 11,106 live and work in Chapel Hill/Carrboro Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  88. 88. Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 3,623 drive in, 8,524 drive out, and 645 live and work in Carrboro Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  89. 89. Chatham Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 8,997 drive in, 20,551 drive out, and 5,124 live and Work in Chatham Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  90. 90. 46% of Chatham Workers Driving Alone Travel 30+ Minutes Percent of those who drive alone to work commuting 30+ minutes, 2012-16 Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey 31% 29% 46% 31% 24% 33% North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  91. 91. Majority of Chatham Residents Work Elsewhere Share of Chatham County resident workers who work outside of Chatham, 2002-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 65% 81% 80% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  92. 92. Now time to work #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  93. 93. We begin with employment
  94. 94. Monthly Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted) 1/2004 to 4/2018 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1/2004 7/2004 1/2005 7/2005 1/2006 7/2006 1/2007 7/2007 1/2008 7/2008 1/2009 7/2009 1/2010 7/2010 1/2011 7/2011 1/2012 7/2012 1/2013 7/2013 1/2014 7/2014 1/2015 7/2015 1/2016 7/2016 1/2017 7/2017 1/2018 North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County Source: BLS LAUS
  95. 95. Annual Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted) Unemployment Rate, 1997-2017 Source: NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 10.9% 6.6% Orange 3.8% 6.6% Chapel Hill, 4.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% UnemploymentRate North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County Source: BLS LAUS
  96. 96. Number of Unemployed Persons, 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 1,379 1,365 2,921 Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County
  97. 97. Orange County Employment Patterns Orange Top 5 Specialized Industries, by Employment, 2016 (NACO) Source: National Association of Counties #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 41,300 jobs | 44.6% 6,700 jobs | 7.2% 5,400 jobs | 5.8% 2,000 jobs | 2.1% 170 jobs | 0.2% State & Local Government Food & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Educational Services Mining
  98. 98. Minority Business Ownership Rates Orange County & Municipalities Fall Below U.S. and Statewide Averages 10.3% 11.8% 13.5% 13.7% 14.0% 14.9% 15.2% 20.5% 20.8% 21.1% 22.8% 26.3% 28.8% 36.7% Bloomington (IN) Chatham County (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Orange County (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Carrboro (NC) Johnston County (NC) Alamance County (NC) Hillsborough (NC) North Carolina Wake County (NC) United States Durham County (NC) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  99. 99. Higher share of women-owned firms in unincorporated Orange County #CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report 30.2% 31.2% 32.2% 32.4% 34.2% 34.6% 35.4% 35.5% 35.6% 35.6% 35.8% 35.9% 36.3% 41.7% Bloomington (IN) Hillsborough (NC) Johnston County (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Chapel Hill (NC) Alamance County (NC) Madison (WI) Chatham County (NC) North Carolina Wake County (NC) United States Carrboro (NC) Orange County (NC) Durham County (NC) Female Business Ownership Rates
  100. 100. Total Non-Profit Employment Nonprofit Employee County by County (2015) 29,808 1,681 42,373 Orange Chatham Durham Source Center for Nonprofits #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  101. 101. 47% of Orange County workers employed in Nonprofit Nonprofit employment as percent of total employment, 2015 47% 12% 23% Orange Chatham Durham Source: Center for Nonprofits #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  102. 102. Orange County Major Employers 2017 Q4 1. UNC Chapel Hill 2. UNC Health Care System 3. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools 4. Orange County Schools 5. UNC Physicians Network LLC, Education & Health Services 6. Local Government 7. Town Of Chapel Hill Inc 8. Eurosport 9. General Electric Company 10. Aramark Food And Support Services G. 11. Wal-Mart Associates Inc. 12. Harris Teeter Source: NC Department of Commerce 13. A K G Of America Inc. 14. Food Lion 15. The Chapel Hill Residential 16. United Parcel Service Inc. 17. P H E Inc. 18. Summit Consulting-Engineering 19. Weaver Street Market 20. Performance BMW 21. Wellspring Grocery 22. Residential Services Inc. 23. U S Postal Service 24. Carolina Inn 25. The Arc Of The Triangle #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  103. 103. Sales and Economy
  104. 104. Taxable Sales Grows to $1.76 Billion Orange County Taxable Sales (in millions), FY06 - FY18 Source: NC Department of Revenue *Change in reporting #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $908 $948 $972 $927 $988 $1,017 $1,058 $1,176 $1,422 $1,477 $1,568 $1,726 $1,766 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
  105. 105. Annual Growth of Orange County Taxable Sales Change (in millions) from Taxable Sales of Prior Year FY05-FY18 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $41 $23 -$45 $61 $30 $41 $117 $246 $55 $91 $158 $40 -$100 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300
  106. 106. Orange County Percent Change of Taxable Sales of Prior Year FY05-FY18 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 4% 2% -5% 7% 3% 4% 11% 21% 4% 6% 10% 2%
  107. 107. Sales Tax Collections Grow to $84 Million Orange County Gross Sales Tax Collections (in millions), FY06-FY18 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $41 $42 $42 $41 $52 $59 $52 $56 $68 $70 $75 $82 $84
  108. 108. Distribution of $56 Million in Orange County Sales Tax Distributions Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $37 million $4.5 million $12.3 million $6,759 $1.4 million $441,692 Orange County Total Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
  109. 109. Chapel Hill & Carrboro Receive 30% of Orange County Sales Tax Distributions ) Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 67% 8% 22% 0.01% 3% 1% Orange County Total Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane 2017-18 County Tax Disbursements
  110. 110. Sales Tax Per Capita FY2016 and FY2017 Source: NC Department of Revenue $175 $157 $251 $172 $154 $177 $177 $255 $182 $156 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2016 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  111. 111. Sales Tax Per Capita Rankings Ranking of 100 NC Counties (1=highest), 2013-2017 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 81 31 48 55 9 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CountyRanking(1to100) Orange Chatham Durham
  112. 112. Total Household Income (billions) 2017 Inflation Adjusted Dollars Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce $3.99 $2.75 $9.86 $4.86 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  113. 113. Average Household Retail Demand 2016 $51,358 $32,097 $44,329 $38,192 $48,176 Orange County Alamance County Chatham County Durham County Wake County Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  114. 114. Number of Households (2016) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 64,369 28,568 123,697 50,203 Alamance County Chatham County Durham County Orange County
  115. 115. $2.1 $1.3 $4.7 $2.6 $18.7 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake Retail Demand 2016 in Billions (revised) Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce Values shown in billions #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  116. 116. The Retail Gap #CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report
  117. 117. Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016 (revised) Retail Potential vs. Retail Sales (in billions), 2016 Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $2.1 $1.3 $4.7 $2.6 $1.8 $0.6 $4.6 $1.8 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Total Retail Potential Total Sales
  118. 118. Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016 Retail Gap– Demand Minus Supply (in Millions), 2016 revised Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $269 $648 $81 $796 $623 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
  119. 119. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Retail Leakage occurs when local people spend a larger amount of money on goods than local businesses report in sales, usually due to people traveling to a neighboring town to buy goods.
  120. 120. Orange County Draws Outside Dollars in 4 Categories 2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions) Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $85.7 $49.5 $13.9 $0.2 -$28.3 -$30.7 -$45.4 -$47.1 -$50.9 -$52.7 -$87.8 -$280.8 -$321.9 Nonstore Retailers Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores Gasoline Stations Miscellaneous Store Retailers Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Clothing/Accessories Stores Food and Beverage Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers General Merchandise Stores
  121. 121. Chatham County Draws Outside Dollars in 1 Category 2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions) Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $10.7 -$9.9 -$20.3 -$21.6 -$23.0 -$29.5 -$40.8 -$41.0 -$41.3 -$41.8 -$73.3 -$99.1 -$217.4 Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores Gasoline Stations Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores Nonstore Retailers Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Clothing/Accessories Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Miscellaneous Store Retailers Food and Beverage Stores General Merchandise Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
  122. 122. Public Schools
  123. 123. Total Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction $8,588 $8,742 $10,180 $10,641 $11,012 $11,601 $12,017 Alamance-Burlington Schools Wake County Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Asheville City Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  124. 124. Local Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction $1,826 $2,537 $3,463 $3,556 $4,281 $4,880 $6,151 Alamance-Burlington Schools Wake County Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Asheville City Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  125. 125. Average SAT Evidence Based Reading and Writing (ERW) Score 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC 568 573 621 522 539 520 542 Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students)
  126. 126. Average SAT Math Score 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 562 559 611 505 524 521 532 Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  127. 127. Average SAT Total Scores 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 1,130 1,133 1,231 1,027 1,063 1,041 1,074 Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  128. 128. EOG Math Grade 3, 2016-17 College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC 60% 50% 70% 38% 58% 47% 52% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students)
  129. 129. EOG Math Grade 8, 2015-16 College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 48% 48% 66% 28% 45% 38% 40% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  130. 130. EOG Reading Grade 8, 2016-17 Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC 63% 55% 72% 41% 57% 47% 54% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students)
  131. 131. EOG Reading Grade 3, 2016-17 Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 67% 56% 74% 45% 60% 53% 58% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  132. 132. Local School Dropout Rate Declines 2000 through 2017 Source: NC DPI 1.9% CHCCS 0.8% 5.2% Orange 2.0% 5.7% NC 2.3% CHCCS Orange NC 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  133. 133. Graduation Rates in Neighboring Districts Nearly Equal to CHCCS Share of 9th Grade Cohort that Graduated in 4 Years, by Graduation Year Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC CHCCS 90% 90% Orange 67% 89% Chatham 67% 88% NC 68% 87% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year of Graduation CHCCS Orange Chatham NC
  134. 134. But there are challenges to address #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  135. 135. Grades 3-8 Math EOG "College and Career Ready", 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 28% 23% 26% 23% 28% 26% 30% 60% 56% 65% 72% 66% 83% 74% NC Alamance Chatham Durham Orange CHCCS Wake Black White #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  136. 136. And Some Areas of Improvement #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  137. 137. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient 2015-2016 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 80 47 39 92 77 55 43 89 Asian Black Hispanic White 2016 2017 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  138. 138. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Subgroups Grade 3 Reading EOG "Grade Level Proficient" #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 44 52 49 26 52 56 58 36 Black Hispanic EDS SWD 2016 2017
  139. 139. Orange County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient 2015-16 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 44 34 71 35 29 74 Black Hispanic White 2016 2017 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  140. 140. Chatham County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient 2015-16 vs. 2016-17 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+) 39 36 72 35 42 78 Black Hispanic White 2016 2017 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  141. 141. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient" 2014-2017 79.1 77.4 34 54.5 43.6 42.8 91.5 88.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 Asian Black Hispanic White #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  142. 142. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient“ 2014-2017 34 54.5 43.6 42.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 Black Hispanic #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  143. 143. Orange County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black Student Performance Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 27.1 29.8 27.4 39.1 2014 2015 2016 2017
  144. 144. Chatham County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black Student Performance Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 37.7 29.2 33.1 42.8 2014 2015 2016 2017
  145. 145. CHCCS Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black Student Performance Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 57.5 37.4 44.9 34 2014 2015 2016 2017
  146. 146. Durham Tech #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  147. 147. Continuing Education Offered and Total Seats Used Durham Tech Orange County Campus, 2011-12 through 2017-18 Source: Durham Tech 269 245 215 188 213 204 237 4,063 3,623 3,087 2,686 3,071 3,274 3,686 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 Classes Offered Total Seats Used 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  148. 148. 49% of CHCCS or OCS graduates received financial aid from Durham Tech (2013-2018) Source: Durham Tech 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  149. 149. Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates and Transfer Performance 2017 Source: Durham Tech 84.50% 97% 76% 95% 100% 94% Transfer Performance (2015-2016) Practical Nursing Registered Nursing EMT EMT-P Esthetician 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  150. 150. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
  151. 151. State Appropriations to UNC Chapel Hill Source: OIRA $500 million $543 million in 2008 $107,782,727$ 108 million$0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 1980 - 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  152. 152. UNC Chapel Hill Revenues Rise, State Appropriations Flat Source: OIRA $3.2 billion $500 million $0 $500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $3,500,000,000 Revenues Appropriations #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  153. 153. UNC milestones #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  154. 154. UNC Chapel Hill Campus Grows Past 20 Million square feet Gross Square Feet of UNC Chapel Hill Campus Source: OIRA 20.1 million17.8 million in 2008 7.8 million 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  155. 155. UNC Chapel Hill Student Population Nearing 30,000 Number of Students Enrolled at UNC, 1980-2017 29,911 28,567 in 2008 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2017201520132011200920072005200320011999199719951993199119891987198519831981 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  156. 156. UNC Annual Research Funding nears $900 million Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research $898 million $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 Millions #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  157. 157. Housing
  158. 158. Homes Sold in 2017 Decline From 2016 Peak Number of single and multifamily home sales, 2007 through 2017 Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 1,751 1,815 1782 1,008 1,037 1323 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  159. 159. New Construction as a Percent of Total Sales #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 11% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  160. 160. 1986median year house built in Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  161. 161. 2003median year Orange County homeowner moved into unit Source: U.S. Census Bureau vs. 2012 for renters #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  162. 162. Steady Growth in Regional Home Prices Median residential closing price, 2007-2017 Orange Chatham Chatham Orange Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $282,500 $277,700 Chatham $369,000 $260,000 $265,000 Orange $316,245 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chatham Orange
  163. 163. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others 2017 Median Residential Closing Price Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $230,750 $285,000 $369,000 $316,245 $360,000
  164. 164. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others 2017 Median Residential Closing Price Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $230,750 $285,000 $369,000 $316,245 $360,000 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
  165. 165. $123 $144 $149 $151 $166 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District Price Per Square Foot Median Price Per Square Foot, 2017 Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  166. 166. Change in Median Home Sale Price 2017 vs 2015 2017 vs. 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 20% 14% 10% 9% 6% Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
  167. 167. 38% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K 2016 Orange County home sales by price #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 25% 21% 28% 22% 17% 26% 18% 19% 14% 21% 25% 14% 13% 18% 18% Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more Source: Triangle MLS
  168. 168. 2017 Orange County Homes Sales by Price #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 454 224 230 395 178 217 316 197 119 378 258 120 239 192 147 -200 300 800 1,300 1,800 Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
  169. 169. Renting #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  170. 170. Most People Renting (2012-2016 ACS) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 39% 59% 52% 37% 23% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham
  171. 171. Median Rent 2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 American Community Survey #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $887 $846 $934 $870 $824 $872 $970 $945 $1,061 $831 $803 $921 Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
  172. 172. What People are Paying for Rent Orange County Gross Rent Paid (2012-2016 ACS) 5% 49% 31% 15% Less than $500 $500 to $999 $1,000 tp $1,499 $1,500 or more #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  173. 173. Changes in % Paying $1,000 or More in Rent #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 34% 25% 42% 30% 31% 33% 46% 43% 56% 24% 24% 40% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
  174. 174. 25% 25% 50% 21% 25% 54% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  175. 175. 19% -1% -7% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Percent Change 2007-2010 to 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  176. 176. Visitor Spending and Economic Impact
  177. 177. $107.35 $102.12 $101.61 $104.38 $106.49 $113.65 $121.48 $124.43 $126.13 $85 $100 $115 $130 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hotel Average Daily Rate Continues to Increase Orange County Average Daily Rate, 2009-2017 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  178. 178. Orange County Hotel Average Daily Occupancy Off Peak Average Daily Hotel Occupancy, 2009-2017 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 58.9% 59.6% 64.1% 65.1% 65.1% 69.9% 70.5% 70.1% 66.8% 48% 56% 64% 72% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  179. 179. $63.34 $60.87 $65.15 $68.00 $69.60 $79.45 $85.69 $87.18 $84.25 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue per Room Continues to Grow Orange County Average Revenue Per Room, 2009-2017 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  180. 180. Orange County Revenues from Tourism Rising (Adjusted for Inflation) State and Local Visitor Spending Tax Revenue (millions) 2018 State of the Community Report Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association #CHCSOTC $9.2 $8.9 $9.2 $9.6 $10.1 $10.5 $3.2 $3.5 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 State Tax Receipts ($2016) Local Tax Receipts ($2016)
  181. 181. Domestic Visitor Spending Increases 4.4% Orange County Domestic Visitor Spending (millions) $184.45 $192.63 2015 2016 Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  182. 182. Domestic Visitor Expenditures (millions) on Steady Increase (Adjusted for Inflation $2016) Orange County Domestic Visitor Expenditures Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $151 $153 $193 $70 $110 $150 $190 $230 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  183. 183. 191 203 217 262 339 261255 254 282 355 467 394 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2017 2018 #CHCSOTC Air B&B Room Nights Increasing 2018 State of the Community Report
  184. 184. #CHCSOTC Air B&B Annual Revenue Growing in Orange County *2018 projected based on trends 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC $1,739,404 $4,000,892 $6,645,065 $9,823,136 2015 2016 2017 2018*
  185. 185. What is it all Worth? #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  186. 186. Orange County 2018 Total Assessed Value #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $7B (44%) Carrboro, $2.1B (13%) Hillsborough, $886 M (5.5%) Rest of County, $6B (37.3%) Total = $16 billion
  187. 187. 2018 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value (millions) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $1.3 Billion (63%) Carrboro, $229 million (11%) Hillsborough, $296 million (14%) Rest of County, $234 million (11%) Total = $2.06 billion
  188. 188. 2018 Orange County Residential Assessed Value #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $5 billion (39%) Carrboro, $1.6 billion (13%) Hillsborough, $516 million (4%) Rest of County, $5.7 billion (44%) Total = $13 billion
  189. 189. 2018 Orange County Apartment Assessed Value (millions) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $654 million (64%) Carrboro, $260 million (25%) Hillsborough, $74 million (7%) Rest of Orange County, $34 million (3%) Total = $1 billion
  190. 190. 72.1% 77.1% 58.2% 95.5% 80.7% 18.5% 10.7% 33.4% 3.9% 12.9% 9.3% 12.2% 8.4% 0.6% 6.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Total County Residential Commercial Apartment 2018 Orange County Assessed Value #CHCSOTC#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  191. 191. Crime #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  192. 192. Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 232.0 158 371.5 173 2001 2006 2011 2016 Chatham Orange #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  193. 193. Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 397 158 773 173 240 2001 2006 2011 2016 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  194. 194. Property Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County, 2001 - 2016 Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 3318.6 1,511 4,887 2,051 2001 2006 2011 2016 Chatham Orange #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  195. 195. Property Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County, 2001 - 2016 Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 2,405 1,511 3,7154,887 2,051 1,885 2001 2006 2011 2016 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  196. 196. Low crime, but you are a worrier #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  197. 197. 2017-18 City and Town Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue Cary, 0.3500 Apex, 0.3800 Raleigh, 0.4253 Chapel Hill, 0.508 Durham, 0.5786 Carrboro, 0.5894 Salisbury, 0.7096 Huntersville Cary Apex Raleigh Asheville Charlotte Concord Wilmington Fayetteville Chapel Hill Greenville Gastonia Wilson Hickory Durham Monroe Carrboro Burlington Winston-Salem Kannapolis Greensboro Jacksonville High Point Goldsboro Rocky Mount Salisbury #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  198. 198. Cary, 0.965 Apex, 0.995 Raleigh, 1.0403 Chapel Hill, 1.3457 Durham, 1.3465 Carrboro, 1.4271 Cary Asheville Apex Raleigh Wilmington Huntersville Hickory Burlington Concord Greenville Wilson Charlotte Fayetteville Goldsboro Jacksonville Winston-Salem Kannapolis Rocky Mount Chapel Hill Durham Greensboro Monroe Salisbury High Point Gastonia Carrboro 2016 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  199. 199. Burlington, $1,246 Raleigh, $2,720 Durham, $2,841 Apex, $3,388 Cary, $3,449 Carrboro, $3,873 Chapel Hill, $4,979 Goldsboro Rocky Mount Burlington Fayetteville Greenville Hickory High Point Jacksonville Kannapolis Winston-Salem Wilson Salisbury Greensboro Gastonia Concord Monroe Wilmington Asheville Raleigh Charlotte Durham Huntersville Apex Cary Carrboro Chapel Hill 2017-18 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value Source: NC Department of Revenue, Zillow 5/2018 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  200. 200. And at the same time there are those in our community with very little
  201. 201. Percent of People in Poverty 2000 2006 2011 2016 Orange County 10% 14% 17% 13% Chatham County 9% 12% 11% 12% Durham County 11% 16% 20% 16% Wake County 7% 9% 12% 9% North Carolina 12% 15% 18% 15% United States 11% 13% 16% 14% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  202. 202. Orange County SNAP Individuals Decline from Peak Monthly Participants Over Time Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services 9,898 11,779 6,111 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 Jan-18Jan-17Jan-16Jan-15Jan-14Jan-12Jan-11Jan-10Jan-09Jan-08Jan-07 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  203. 203. Number of Children in Poverty Decreasing 1998 through 2016 2018 State of the Community Report Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 2,773 4,822 3,229 1,848 2,952 2,462 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Orange County Chatham County #CHCSOTC
  204. 204. Food Insecurity Rate by County (2016) Source: Feeding America 15.4% 13.2% 14.7% 10.9% 17.3% 12.7% North Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  205. 205. -2.9% -2.2% -2.0% -1.1% -0.9% -1.7% -9.0% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% North Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake Percentage Point Change in Food Insecurity Rate 2013 to 2016 Source: Feeding America #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  206. 206. Food Insecure People by County (2016) Source: Feeding America #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 18,460 22,930 7,480 50,890 Orange Alamance Chatham Durham
  207. 207. Health Data
  208. 208. Adult Smoking Rates Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 14% 19% 15% 16% 14% 11% 22% 13% 19% 13% 10% 16% 16% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  209. 209. Adult Obesity Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 23% 33% 26% 26% 23% 14% 26% 24% 23% 24% 21% 29% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  210. 210. Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 150 396 174 613 245 210 372 231 277 299 264 435 363 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  211. 211. Disconnected Youth Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 4% 13% 20% 13% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 4% 10% 13% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  212. 212. 9 12 6 9 10 13 17 18 11 17 15 18 Drug Overdose Deaths per 100,000 Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  213. 213. 21% 16% 16% 17% 20% 24% 17% 29% 21% 25% 20% 19% Excessive Drinking Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  214. 214. Access to Exercise Opportunities Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 86% 86% 65% 92% 92% 97% 87% 95% 83% 94% 96% 88% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  215. 215. Prostate Cancer Rate per 100,000 2006-2010 vs. 2011-2015 Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics 154.9 167.6 134.2 160.9 142.8 178.5 109.4 108.3 96.9 101.8 84.1 118.3 NORTH CAROLINA Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2007-2011 2012-2016 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  216. 216. Female Breast Cancer Rate per 100,000 2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016 Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics 159.2 166.0 181.0 173.0 170.6 169.5 157.5 181.2 169.4 174.6 177.0 168.0 NORTH CAROLINA Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2007-2011 2012-2016 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  217. 217. Orange County Teen Pregnancy Rates Decrease Per 1000 Girls, Age 15-17 Source: NC Health and Human Services 26.1 9.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Too few to calculate rates #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  218. 218. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life Health Behaviors Clinical Care Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  219. 219. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors Clinical Care Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  220. 220. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  221. 221. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  222. 222. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange Social and Economic Factors #2 #13 Union Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  223. 223. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange Social and Economic Factors #2 #13 Union Physical Environment #33 #19 Hyde Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  224. 224. Summary Add #
  225. 225. #CHCSOTC Summary • We are growing, but slowly, and we are less dense than peer communities. • Young workers working in Orange, and driving into Orange, is increasing. • Household income is out-pacing inflation. • Orange has number 1 in per capita income but lags in per capita sales. • Retail gap remains wide with additional retail opportunity on the horizon. • CHCCS continues to out perform peers. • Minority student reading is improving in CHCCS and the achievement gap is closing there.
  226. 226. #CHCSOTC Summary • Health Indicators show Orange and Chatham lead neighbors and peers. • Rent is getting more expensive, but wage growth is outpacing it. • Housing prices are increasing, though rate of growth in Orange is slowest • Orange and Chatham properties are valuable and have a strong and growing tax bases. • Poverty, and children in poverty, are declining. • Crime is down. • We remain one the best places in the world to live, work, shop, play, learn, and raise a family. Add #
  227. 227. #CHCSOTC Creighton Blackwell 2018 Chamber Board Vice Chair 2018 State of the Community Report
  228. 228. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2018 InterCity Visit September 23-25 LAWRENCE, KANSAS Only 17 Spots Remaining Register at CarolinaChamber.org/ICV
  229. 229. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report HELP YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITY, GET A CHANCE TO WIN $10,000 Step 1: Buy a $100 ticket for a 1 in 400 chance! Step 2: Attend the Party Thursday, October 25 from 5:30-8 p.m. See any Chamber Board Member or visit carolinachamber.org/raffle to purchase your ticket! Proceeds support the Chamber’s economic and community development work.
  230. 230. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report The Chamber’s Hendrick Golf Classic October 8, 2018 | Governors Club | 8:30 am - 5 pm Come Play on Columbus Day!
  231. 231. Thank you for attending the 2018 State of the Community Report

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