1.
Georgia’s Evolving Demographics
Population Change in the Peach State
Jeffrey Wright
Applied Demography Program

2.
Highlights
• Urban growth
• Fertility stall
• Graying of Georgia
• Slowing In-Migration

3.
What was the 2018 population of
Georgia?
9.5 million 10.5 million
9.9 million9.2 million

4.
What was the 2018 population of
Liberty County?
58,000
61,500
60,0o0
63,500

5.
What was the 2018 population of
the Hinesville MSA?
60,500
90,500
70,500
80,500

6.
What was Liberty County’s population
growth rate 2010-2018?
8.6%
4.1%
6.0%
-3.3%

7.
What Liberty County’s population
growth 2010-2018?
8.6%
4.1%
6.0%
-3.3%
Georgia
Liberty Co. Hinesville MSA
United States

8.
What was the median age in
Liberty County in 2017?
36.4
28.6
27.9
37.8

9.
What was the median age in
Liberty County in 2017?
36.4
28.6
27.9
37.8
Georgia Liberty Co.
Hinesville MSAUnited States

10.
What % Foreign-born in Liberty?
7.1%
13.4%
5.9%
10.0%

11.
What % Foreign-born in Liberty?
7.1%
13.4%
5.9%
10.0%
Georgia
Liberty Co.Hinesville Proper
United States

12.
Recent
Trends

13.
Hinesville MSA Gains, Liberty Slips
75,000
76,000
77,000
78,000
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
60,500
61,000
61,500
62,000
62,500
63,000
63,500
64,000
64,500
65,000
65,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HinesvilleMSA
LibertyCounty Population
Liberty Hinesville

14.
Hinesville MSA Gains, Liberty Slips
75,000
76,000
77,000
78,000
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
60,500
61,000
61,500
62,000
62,500
63,000
63,500
64,000
64,500
65,000
65,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HinesvilleMSA
LibertyCounty Population
Liberty Hinesville Linear (Liberty) Linear (Hinesville)

15.
75,000
76,000
77,000
78,000
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HinesvilleMSAPopulation
LongCountyPopulation
Population
Long Hinesville Linear (Long) Linear (Hinesville)
Hinesville MSA Tracking
Long County

16.
Hinesville MSA growing,
Hinesville proper declining
75,000
76,000
77,000
78,000
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
32,000
32,500
33,000
33,500
34,000
34,500
35,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HinesvilleMSAPopulation
HinesvilleCity
Population
Hinesville City Hinesville MSA
Linear (Hinesville City) Linear (Hinesville MSA)

17.
What drives population change?
• Three components change population size
– Births / Fertility
– Deaths / Mortality
– Migration
• Domestic
• Foreign

18.
Demographic Balancing Equation
Population growth or decline =
• Natural Increase = Births – Deaths
+
• Net Migration = In-migrants + Out-migrants
Georgia
Liberty Co. Hinesville MSA
United States

19.
Fertility

20.
Replacement rate:
2,100.0
U.S. Birth Rate (TFR), 2017

21.
General Fertility Rate
Tracks Lower in 2018
Source: CDC

22.
Fertility decline, post-recession
50
55
60
65
70
75
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Birthsper1,000femalesaged15-44
Georgia General Fertility Rate
Urban Rural Source: Georgia Department of Public Health

23.
But Liberty bucks the trend
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Birthsper1,000femalesaged15-44
General Fertility Rates
Georgia Liberty County
Source: Georgia Department of Public Health

24.
Falling births have ripple effects
Class of 2026
Class of 2032 Class of 2036
Class of 2022
Source: Georgia Department of Public Health, OASIS

25.
Mortality

26.
Source: CDC
Rising Mortality in U.S., Georgia
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
Crude Death Rate
United States Georgia

27.
Source: Georgia Public Health
Georgia’s Recent Mortality Trends
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Deathsper100,000pop.
Crude Death Rate

28.
Source: Georgia Department of Public Health
Georgia’s Recent Mortality Upswing
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Deathsper100,000pop.
Crude Death Rate
Rural Death Rate Urban Death Rate
First baby boomers
hit age 65

29.
Source: Georgia Department of Public Health
And Liberty has seen an uptick, too
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Deathsper100,000pop.
Georgia Liberty County

30.
Migration

31.
Migration Component: Slowing
• Migration is key to Georgia’s population growth and
renewal of parents of childbearing age, schools, workforce
• Foreign and domestic in-migration has attenuated
• Asians the exception, foreign and domestic trends are up
• Mexican immigration is petering out

32.
Current Domestic In-migration Snapshot
Source: US Census Estimates Program

33.
Foreign and Domestic Migration
Long-term slowdown
Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Persons
In-Migrants to Georgia (non-military)
Total Domestic Foreign
Linear (Total) Linear (Domestic) Linear (Foreign)

34.
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Liberty County Migration
Foreign Domestic Net

35.
Projections

36.
Projected Population of Georgia
4.6
10.5
15.4
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Millions
Source: US Census Bureau, OPB Population Projections
(Projected)

37.
Lions & Lambs: Projected Change
Source: OPB Population Projections

38.
Flat growth projected for Liberty
Source: OPB Population Projections

39.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84
PopulationinThousands
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic Black
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Other
Source: US Census Population Estimates
Race/Ethnic Age Diversity,
Georgia 2018

40.
Liberty County diversity
2018 2033 2053
White, NH Black, NH Hispanic Other, NH

41.
Source: US Census Population Estimates
Burgeoning Georgia Seniors Pop.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2020 2040 2060
%ofTotal
Share of population aged 65 or more
White, NH Black, NH Hispanic Other, NH

42.
State Growth Leaders, 2010-2018
Georgia has 7 of 100
fastest-growing US counties
Rank County Change
9 Forsyth 34.8%
13 Long 32.6%
26 Bryan 26.1%
33 Columbia 24.4%
67 Oconee 19.6%
72 Effingham 19.0%
77 Cherokee 18.6%
Source: US Census Bureau Estimates Program

43.
Census 2020

44.
https://census.georgia.gov/

45.
Census 2020: Federal Funding
• A recent US Census Bureau study found 132 programs that
use Census Bureau data to distribute funds.
• In 2015, that amounted to more than $675 billion.
• Federal outlays are projected to increase from $3.7 trillion
in 2015 to $4.7 trillion in 2020, so Census-based funds will
grow, too.
Source: Uses of Census Bureau Data in Federal Funds Distribution, Census Bureau, 2017

46.
Source: GW Institute for Public Policy
Georgia’s Top 10 Census-based Program Funds
United States Georgia
TOTAL of Federal Expenditures $883.1 bln $23.8 bln
Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid) $361.2 bln $6.9 bln
Federal Direct Student Loans $93.5 bln $2.9 bln
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program $66.4 bln $2.7 bln
Medicare Suppl. Medical Insurance (Part B) $66.1 bln $1.8 bln
Highway Planning and Construction $40.3 bln $1.3 bln
Federal Pell Grant Program $26.0 bln $905 mln
Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers $19.4 bln $509 mln
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families $17.1 bln $331 mln
Counting for Dollars FY16