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Progress Through People Luncheon Georgia's Evolving Demographics

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The luncheon featured a presentation from the University of Georgia Carl Vinson Institute of Government focusing on the population changes in the state of Georgia as well as Liberty County. Our speaker, Jeffrey Wright, is a demographer for the Carl Vinson Institute discussed the changes and projected changes that will impact our community. The luncheon today was sponsored by the Liberty County Convention and Visitors Bureau.

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Progress Through People Luncheon Georgia's Evolving Demographics

  1. 1. Georgia’s Evolving Demographics Population Change in the Peach State Jeffrey Wright Applied Demography Program
  2. 2. Highlights • Urban growth • Fertility stall • Graying of Georgia • Slowing In-Migration
  3. 3. What was the 2018 population of Georgia? 9.5 million 10.5 million 9.9 million9.2 million
  4. 4. What was the 2018 population of Liberty County? 58,000 61,500 60,0o0 63,500
  5. 5. What was the 2018 population of the Hinesville MSA? 60,500 90,500 70,500 80,500
  6. 6. What was Liberty County’s population growth rate 2010-2018? 8.6% 4.1% 6.0% -3.3%
  7. 7. What Liberty County’s population growth 2010-2018? 8.6% 4.1% 6.0% -3.3% Georgia Liberty Co. Hinesville MSA United States
  8. 8. What was the median age in Liberty County in 2017? 36.4 28.6 27.9 37.8
  9. 9. What was the median age in Liberty County in 2017? 36.4 28.6 27.9 37.8 Georgia Liberty Co. Hinesville MSAUnited States
  10. 10. What % Foreign-born in Liberty? 7.1% 13.4% 5.9% 10.0%
  11. 11. What % Foreign-born in Liberty? 7.1% 13.4% 5.9% 10.0% Georgia Liberty Co.Hinesville Proper United States
  12. 12. Recent Trends
  13. 13. Hinesville MSA Gains, Liberty Slips 75,000 76,000 77,000 78,000 79,000 80,000 81,000 82,000 60,500 61,000 61,500 62,000 62,500 63,000 63,500 64,000 64,500 65,000 65,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HinesvilleMSA LibertyCounty Population Liberty Hinesville
  14. 14. Hinesville MSA Gains, Liberty Slips 75,000 76,000 77,000 78,000 79,000 80,000 81,000 82,000 60,500 61,000 61,500 62,000 62,500 63,000 63,500 64,000 64,500 65,000 65,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HinesvilleMSA LibertyCounty Population Liberty Hinesville Linear (Liberty) Linear (Hinesville)
  15. 15. 75,000 76,000 77,000 78,000 79,000 80,000 81,000 82,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HinesvilleMSAPopulation LongCountyPopulation Population Long Hinesville Linear (Long) Linear (Hinesville) Hinesville MSA Tracking Long County
  16. 16. Hinesville MSA growing, Hinesville proper declining 75,000 76,000 77,000 78,000 79,000 80,000 81,000 82,000 32,000 32,500 33,000 33,500 34,000 34,500 35,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HinesvilleMSAPopulation HinesvilleCity Population Hinesville City Hinesville MSA Linear (Hinesville City) Linear (Hinesville MSA)
  17. 17. What drives population change? • Three components change population size – Births / Fertility – Deaths / Mortality – Migration • Domestic • Foreign
  18. 18. Demographic Balancing Equation Population growth or decline = • Natural Increase = Births – Deaths + • Net Migration = In-migrants + Out-migrants Georgia Liberty Co. Hinesville MSA United States
  19. 19. Fertility
  20. 20. Replacement rate: 2,100.0 U.S. Birth Rate (TFR), 2017
  21. 21. General Fertility Rate Tracks Lower in 2018 Source: CDC
  22. 22. Fertility decline, post-recession 50 55 60 65 70 75 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Birthsper1,000femalesaged15-44 Georgia General Fertility Rate Urban Rural Source: Georgia Department of Public Health
  23. 23. But Liberty bucks the trend 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Birthsper1,000femalesaged15-44 General Fertility Rates Georgia Liberty County Source: Georgia Department of Public Health
  24. 24. Falling births have ripple effects Class of 2026 Class of 2032 Class of 2036 Class of 2022 Source: Georgia Department of Public Health, OASIS
  25. 25. Mortality
  26. 26. Source: CDC Rising Mortality in U.S., Georgia 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 Crude Death Rate United States Georgia
  27. 27. Source: Georgia Public Health Georgia’s Recent Mortality Trends 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Deathsper100,000pop. Crude Death Rate
  28. 28. Source: Georgia Department of Public Health Georgia’s Recent Mortality Upswing 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Deathsper100,000pop. Crude Death Rate Rural Death Rate Urban Death Rate First baby boomers hit age 65
  29. 29. Source: Georgia Department of Public Health And Liberty has seen an uptick, too 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Deathsper100,000pop. Georgia Liberty County
  30. 30. Migration
  31. 31. Migration Component: Slowing • Migration is key to Georgia’s population growth and renewal of parents of childbearing age, schools, workforce • Foreign and domestic in-migration has attenuated • Asians the exception, foreign and domestic trends are up • Mexican immigration is petering out
  32. 32. Current Domestic In-migration Snapshot Source: US Census Estimates Program
  33. 33. Foreign and Domestic Migration Long-term slowdown Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Persons In-Migrants to Georgia (non-military) Total Domestic Foreign Linear (Total) Linear (Domestic) Linear (Foreign)
  34. 34. -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Liberty County Migration Foreign Domestic Net
  35. 35. Projections
  36. 36. Projected Population of Georgia 4.6 10.5 15.4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Millions Source: US Census Bureau, OPB Population Projections (Projected)
  37. 37. Lions & Lambs: Projected Change Source: OPB Population Projections
  38. 38. Flat growth projected for Liberty Source: OPB Population Projections
  39. 39. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 PopulationinThousands Hispanic Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Other Source: US Census Population Estimates Race/Ethnic Age Diversity, Georgia 2018
  40. 40. Liberty County diversity 2018 2033 2053 White, NH Black, NH Hispanic Other, NH
  41. 41. Source: US Census Population Estimates Burgeoning Georgia Seniors Pop. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2020 2040 2060 %ofTotal Share of population aged 65 or more White, NH Black, NH Hispanic Other, NH
  42. 42. State Growth Leaders, 2010-2018 Georgia has 7 of 100 fastest-growing US counties Rank County Change 9 Forsyth 34.8% 13 Long 32.6% 26 Bryan 26.1% 33 Columbia 24.4% 67 Oconee 19.6% 72 Effingham 19.0% 77 Cherokee 18.6% Source: US Census Bureau Estimates Program
  43. 43. Census 2020
  44. 44. https://census.georgia.gov/
  45. 45. Census 2020: Federal Funding • A recent US Census Bureau study found 132 programs that use Census Bureau data to distribute funds. • In 2015, that amounted to more than $675 billion. • Federal outlays are projected to increase from $3.7 trillion in 2015 to $4.7 trillion in 2020, so Census-based funds will grow, too. Source: Uses of Census Bureau Data in Federal Funds Distribution, Census Bureau, 2017
  46. 46. Source: GW Institute for Public Policy Georgia’s Top 10 Census-based Program Funds United States Georgia TOTAL of Federal Expenditures $883.1 bln $23.8 bln Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid) $361.2 bln $6.9 bln Federal Direct Student Loans $93.5 bln $2.9 bln Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program $66.4 bln $2.7 bln Medicare Suppl. Medical Insurance (Part B) $66.1 bln $1.8 bln Highway Planning and Construction $40.3 bln $1.3 bln Federal Pell Grant Program $26.0 bln $905 mln Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers $19.4 bln $509 mln Temporary Assistance for Needy Families $17.1 bln $331 mln Counting for Dollars FY16

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