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2021 State of the Community Report Presentation

The State of the Community Report is an annual event featuring a comprehensive presentation with the latest data on the well-being of Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro across social, economic, and environmental indicators.

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2021 State of the Community Report
Coming to You from Chapel Hill Public Library
presented by
Tom Wiltberger
Tera Nova Global Properties
2021 Community Data Partners
Context
Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
Orange
County Total
Value Per
Acre
Source: Urban 3
Covid
Dr. Rebecca Tippett
Carolina Demography
Population Growth
Local Population Totals + Decennial and Annual
Growth Rates
Source: US Census Bureau
2010 2020 Growth Rate
Growth Rate Per
Year
Orange County 133,801 148,696 11% 1.1%
Hillsborough 6,087 9,660 59% 4.6%
Carrboro 19,582 21,295 9% 0.8%
Chapel Hill 57,233 61,960 8% 0.8%
Chatham County 63,505 76,285 20% 1.8%
North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 9% 0.9%
Fastest Growth in Triangle, Charlotte, Wilmington
Population growth rate (%) for NC counties, 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
Chatham 3rd Fastest-Growing Among Peer Counties
Population growth rate, 2010-2020
Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates
25%
21%
20%
13%
11%
9%
Wake County
Durham County
Chatham County
Alamance County
Orange County
North Carolina
Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham County
Numeric population growth, 2010-2020
Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates
12,780
14,895
20,284
57,246
228,417
903,905
Chatham County
Orange County
Alamance County
Durham County
Wake County
North Carolina
Orange County 2010s Population Increases on Par
with 1960s
Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020
Source: Decennial Census
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574 14,895
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Chatham County Decennial Population Growth Second
Largest Ever
Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020
Source: Decennial Census
549 666 1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
12,780
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Wake Suburbs Among Fastest-Growing Areas in Region
Population growth rate (%) by census tract, 2010-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
Mebane’s Population Growth Rate Exceeds Neighbors
Population growth rate, 2010-2020
Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates
77%
59%
56%
21%
9%
9%
8%
Mebane (Orange County)
Hillsborough
Mebane (Total)
Pittsboro
Carrboro
Chapel Hill (Orange County)
Chapel Hill (Total)
Mebane Exceeds All Neighbors in Numeric Growth
Numeric population growth, 2010-2020
6,404
4,727
4,657
3,573
1,713
1,378
794
Mebane (Total)
Chapel Hill (Total)
Chapel Hill (Orange County)
Hillsborough
Carrboro
Mebane (Orange County)
Pittsboro
Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates
Smallest Numeric Growth in Carrboro since 1970s
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
2,278
4,798 4,648
2,800
1,710
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: Decennial Census
2010s Chapel Hill’s Slowest Decade of Population Growth
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
6,222 6,290
7,308
11,214
4,554
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: Decennial Census
Hillsborough’s 2010s Population Growth Twice as
Large as any Previous Decade
Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020
1,575
1,244 1,183
641
3,053
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: Decennial Census
Net Migration Drove Population Growth for Orange &
Neighbors in 2019-2020
Rate of net migration and natural increase (births-deaths) per 1,000 residents, July 1, 2019-June30, 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Components of Change
1.4
-2.9
0.4
5.4 5.3
4.6
20.7
12.4
8.0
12.0
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
Natural Increase Rate Net Migration Rate
Community
Demographics
Orange County Population by Race/Ethnicity
Changes by Decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census
80% 76% 71% 65%
16%
14%
12%
10%
4% 8%
11%
3% 4% 7%
8%
2% 3% 6%
1990 2000 2010 2020
All Other Races
Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
Values less than
1% not labeled
State and County Minority Make-Up (2020)
21%
11% 12%
10%
9%
12%
3%
8%
2%
3% 3% 2%
North Carolina Orange County Chatham County
Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census | 5-Year American Community Survey
*includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
Municipality Minority Make-Up (2020)
9% 10%
18%
8%
13%
10%
15%
9%
2%
5% 6% 6%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census | 5-Year American Community Survey
*includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
Population Projections
Three Options for Projecting Growth
Source: Decennial Census
Exponential
(2010-2020)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2020)
Orange 1.1% 1,998 people 1,490 people
Chatham 1.8% 1,237 people 1,278 people
Carrboro 0.8% 372 people 171 people
Chapel Hill 0.8% 926 people 473 people
Hillsborough 4.6% 91 people 357 people
Orange County Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
228,596
208,276
148,696
226,808
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Chatham County Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
76,285 125,777
127,405
158,842
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Chapel Hill Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
99,004
80,868
61,960
85,108
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Carrboro Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
36,191
28,147
21,295
29,782
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Hillsborough Population Projections
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
13,308
23,952
9,660
61,273
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
2020
actual
2030 2040 2050 2060
Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
Chapel Hill Projected Population Density
Population per square mile, projecting with linear 2010-2020
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
2,583
2,342 2,330
2,710
2,871
3,090
3,309
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 2030 Projected 2040 Projected
Carrboro Projected Population Density
Population per square mile, projecting with linear 2010-2020
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
2,970
3,437
3,754
3,031
3,289
3,553
3,818
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 2030 Projected 2040 Projected
Hillsborough Projected Population Density
Population per square mile, projecting with linear 2010-2020
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
1,398
1,201 1,189 1,142
1,704
2,334
2,964
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 2030 Projected 2040 Projected
Chapel Hill Less Dense in 2040 Than Peer College
Towns in 2020
Population per square mile, 2020
Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography
4,544
4,392
4,339
4,112
3,408
3,391
3,309
3,289
2,871
Charlottesville (VA)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Burlington (VT)
Boulder (CO)
Bloomington (IN)
Madison (WI)
2040 Chapel Hill
Carrboro
2020 Chapel Hill
Educational Attainment
Percent of Residents with a Bachelor Degree or Higher
Percent of residents 25+ with a bachelor degree or higher, 2019
Source: American Community Survey 2015-2019 5-Year Estimates
Cambridge, MA, 79%
Chapel Hill, NC, 77%
Carrboro, NC, 71%
Orange County, NC, 60%
Wake County, NC, 53%
Hillsborough, NC, 52%
Durham County, NC, 48%
Chatham County, NC, 42%
Alamance County, NC, 25%
Cambridge, MA
Chapel Hill, NC
Boulder, CO
Ann Arbor, MI
Berkeley, CA
Carrboro, NC
Evanston, IL
Sunnyvale, CA
Amherst Center CDP, MA
Santa Clara, CA
Orange County, NC
Corvallis, OR
Bloomington, IN
Fort Collins, CO
Charlottesville, VA
Burlington,VT
Wake County, NC
Hillsborough, NC
Austin, TX
Boston, MA
Tallahassee, FL
Durham County, NC
Gainesville, FL
Athens-Clarke Co unified, GA
San Jose, CA
Chatham County, NC
Columbus, OH
Alamance County, NC
Percent of Residents with a Doctorate Degree
Percent of residents 25+ with a Doctorate degree, 2019
Source: American Community Survey 2015-2019 5-Year Estimates
Cambridge, MA, 14%
Chapel Hill, NC, 14%
Carrboro, NC, 10%
Orange County, NC, 9%
Durham County, NC, 5%
Hillsborough, NC, 4%
Chatham County, NC, 4%
Wake County, NC, 3%
Alamance County, NC, 1%
Cambridge, MA
Chapel Hill, NC
Amherst Center CDP, MA
Ann Arbor, MI
Carrboro, NC
Berkeley, CA
Corvallis, OR
Orange County, NC
Boulder, CO
Evanston, IL
Bloomington, IN
Charlottesville, VA
Sunnyvale, CA
Athens-Clarke Co,GA
Gainesville, FL
Durham County, NC
Hillsborough, NC
Tallahassee, FL
Santa Clara , CA
Fort Collins, CO
Chatham County, NC
Boston, MA
Burlington,VT
Wake County, NC
Austin, TX
San Jose, CA
Columbus, OH
Alamance County, NC
Local Income
and Resources
Orange County Highest Per Capita Income in State
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 2019
Orange (1), $42,231
Wake (2), $40,982
Chatham (3), $40,967
Durham (6), $35,398
Alamance (37), $27,312
Hyde (100), $18,245
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Orange
County,
NC
Wake
County,
N
C
Chatham
County,
NC
Mecklenburg
County,
NC
Union
County,
N
C
Durham
County,
NC
Moore
County,
NC
Dare
County,
NC
New
Hanover
County,
NC
Carteret
County,
NC
Brunswick
County,
NC
Iredell
County,
N
C
Buncombe
County,
NC
Cabarrus
County,
NC
Currituck
County,
NC
Lincoln
Cou
nty,
NC
Henderson
County,
N
C
Davie
County,
NC
Forsyth
County,
NC
Guilford
County,
N
C
Polk
County,
NC
Haywood
County,
NC
Transylvania
County,
N
C
Craven
County,
NC
Pender
County,
NC
Pamlico
County,
N
C
Macon
County,
NC
Clay
County,
N
C
Catawba
County,
NC
Camden
County,
NC
Johnston
County,
NC
Perquimans
County,
N
C
Beaufort
County,
NC
Nash
County,
NC
Gaston
County,
NC
Person
County,
NC
Alamance
Cou
nty,
NC
Franklin
County,
NC
Pitt
County,
NC
Granville
County,
NC
Watauga
County,
NC
Alexander
County,
NC
Stokes
County,
NC
Chowan
County,
NC
Davids
on
County,
NC
Madison
Co
unty,
NC
Stanly
County,
NC
Gates
County,
N
C
Rowan
County,
NC
Surry
Cou
nty,
NC
Jacks
on
County,
NC
Wayne
County,
NC
Yadkin
County,
N
C
Wilkes
County,
NC
Mitchell
County,
N
C
Cumberland
County,
NC
Lee
County,
NC
Ashe
County,
NC
Wilson
County,
NC
Pasquotank
County,
NC
Montgomery
County,
NC
Yancey
County,
NC
Burke
County,
NC
Onslow
County,
NC
Randolph
County,
NC
McDowell
County,
NC
Rockingham
County,
NC
Rutherford
County,
NC
Cherokee
County,
NC
Caswell
County,
N
C
Caldwell
County,
NC
Lenoir
County,
NC
Harnett
County,
NC
Martin
County,
NC
Bladen
County,
NC
Warren
County,
NC
Washington
County,
NC
Alleghany
County,
NC
Swain
County,
NC
Van
ce
Coun
ty,
NC
Bertie
County,
NC
Sampson
County,
N
C
Columbus
County,
NC
Cleveland
County,
NC
Northampton
County,
N
C
Jones
County,
NC
Halifax
Co
unty,
NC
Anson
County,
NC
Richmond
County,
NC
Avery
County,
N
C
Hoke
County,
NC
Edgecombe
County,
NC
Graham
County,
NC
Duplin
County,
NC
Hertford
County,
NC
Tyrrell
County,
NC
Greene
County,
NC
Scotland
Cou
nty,
NC
Robeson
County,
NC
Hyde
County,
NC
Wake Leads, Orange 2nd in Regional Median
Household Income in 2019
Household Income is the total annual earnings of all members of a household, whether they are a family or
separate individuals living together (Distinct from Median Family Income and Per Capita Income)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
$74,314 $70,258 $65,541
$57,963
$84,377
$57,388
$65,712
Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Wake North
Carolina
United
States
Orange Leads, Chatham Tails Neighboring Counties in
Median Household Income Growth 2010 to 2019
Percent change in median household income from 2010 to 2019, adjusted for inflation $2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
31.3%
26.9%
24.5%
24.0%
20.1%
19.3%
18.3%
Orange
Alamance
Wake
Durham
North Carolina
United States
Chatham
Orange Ranks 1st, Chatham 2nd in Average AGI
Average AGI on All Returns Rank (of 100 Counties)
Orange County $105,988 1
Chatham County $94,255 2
Wake County $92,888 3
Durham County $71,222 9
Alamance County $55,405 34
Source: IRS
Average adjusted gross income (AGI) on tax returns, 2018
Orange Ranks 1st, Chatham 10th in AGI for Itemized Returns
Average AGI on Itemized Returns Rank (of 100 Counties)
Orange County $285,973 1
Wake County $235,781 7
Chatham County $223,279 10
Durham County $171,996 28
Alamance County $163,332 35
Source: IRS
Average adjusted gross income (AGI) on itemized tax returns, 2018
Orange and Chatham Rank Near Bottom on Percent of AGI
Contributed to Charitable Causes
Percent of AGI Contributed Rank (of 100 Counties)
Alamance County 7% 56
Durham County 6% 76
Wake County 5% 88
Chatham County 5% 89
Orange County 5% 95
Source: IRS
Average adjusted gross income (AGI) percent contributed to charitable causes on tax returns, 2018
Orange Top Ten in Dollars Given to Charity
Average Itemized Contributions
Reported
Rank (of 100 Counties)
Orange County $14,194 9
Wake County $12,897 16
Alamance County $12,043 26
Chatham County $12,037 27
Durham County $10,855 50
Source: IRS
Average itemized contribution to charitable causes on tax returns, 2018
Retail Sales and
Sales Tax Revenue
Covid Retail Sales
Annual Orange Retail Sales Down Just 1% in Pandemic 2020
Percent change in monthly retail sales (2019 vs. 2020)
Source: NC Department of Revenue
10%
3%
2%
-12%
4%
9%
6%
-6%
-20%
-6%
-1%
9%
-1%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Total
Pitt County Retail Sales 2020 vs 2019
Percent change in Pitt County (East Carolina University) taxable retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020
Source: NC Department of Revenue
13%
3%
1%
10%
5%
6%
20%
-2%
-15%
-5%
7%
12%
5%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Total
Watauga County Retail Sales 2020 vs 2019
Percent change in WataugaCounty (Appalachian State University) taxable retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020
Source: NC Department of Revenue
13%
8%
11%
8%
5%
3%
9%
-18%
-32%
-9%
9%
14%
2%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Total
Chatham Retail Sales Increase 20% in 2020 vs 2019
Percent change in retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020
Source: NC Department of Revenue
21%
26%
48%
10%
13%
18%
27%
9%
16%
12%
20%
12%
20%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Total
Johnston County Taxable Retail Sales 2020 v 2019
Percent change in taxable retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020
Source: NC Department of Revenue
11%
13%
14%
14%
4%
19%
22%
14%
-3%
-8%
3%
1%
9%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Total
Orange County Retail Sales up 21% from 2020 to 2021
Percent change in retail sales, Jan-May 2020 vs. Jan-May2021
Source: NC Department of Revenue
19%
41%
30%
9%
9%
21%
May
April
March
February
January
Total
Chatham Retail Sales Increase 20% from 2020 to 2021
Percent change in retail sales, Jan-May 2020 vs. Jan-May2021
Source: NC Department of Revenue
9%
16%
12%
20%
12%
20%
May
April
March
February
January
Total
Orange County Retail Sales Decline in 2020; Rebound in 2021
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
$180,000,000
$200,000,000
$220,000,000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
2021 2019
Orange County’s 2021 Monthly Retail Sales Outpace
Previous Years
Taxable retail sales by month 2018-2021
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
$180,000,000
$200,000,000
$220,000,000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
2021 2020 2019 2018
Chatham County Retail Sales Continue to Increase
in the Pandemic
Source: NC Department of Revenue
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
2021 2019
Chatham County’s Retail Sales Increase Year Over
Year Despite Pandemic
Taxable retail sales totals by month 2018-2021
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
$100,000,000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
2021 2020 2019 2018
Orange County Taxable Retail Sales Approach $2B
Taxable retail sales ($millions), adjusted for inflation ($2020), FY06 – FY20;
Source: NC Department of Revenue
1,163 1,181 1,165 1,116 1,170 1,168 1,190
1,303
1,552 1,609 1,687
1,819 1,816
1,943 1,956
$(250)
$250
$750
$1,250
$1,750
$2,250
Chatham County Taxable Sales up $73 million in FY20
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$311
$375 $369 $346
$405 $417 $423 $436 $462
$520
$580
$612 $620
$660
$733
Taxable retail sales ($millions) adjusted for inflation $2020, FY06 – FY20
2020-21 Orange County Tax Disbursements
County sales tax revenue distribution percentages and totals
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$35,452,374
60%
$5,348,490
9.1%
$15,500,240
26%
$8,246
0.01%
$1,985,276
3.4%
$576,354
1.0%
Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
Chamber Small Business
Index
Local Business Credit Card Transaction Value per Month
Rebounds
Cohort of 40 diverse local businesses’ combined monthly credit card transaction values, Feb 2018 –July 2021
Source: Infintech; The Chamber’s 40-Business Index
July 2018,
$1,437,447
July 2019,
$1,533,935
July 2020,
$995,580
July 2021,
$1,444,300
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Small Business Credit Card Volume (swipes) Still 20%
Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
Cohort of 40 diverse local businesses’ combined monthly credit card transaction volume, Feb 2018 –July 2021
Source: Infintech; The Chamber’s 40-Business Index
July 2018, 14,634
July 2019, 14,679
July 2020, 8,036
July 2021, 11,625
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Program Sponsor
Mayor Pam Hemminger
Town of Chapel Hill
For Sale Housing
Orange County on Pace for New High in Annual
Housing Units Sold
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
1,751
1,275
1,143 1,143 1,128
1,277
1,630
1,433
1,650
1,815 1,782
1,869 1,915 1,875
1,215
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July
2021
Annual home sales, 2007-July2020
Orange County on Pace for New High in Annual
Housing Units Sold
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
1,751
1,275
1,143 1,143 1,128
1,277
1,630
1,433
1,650
1,815 1,782
1,869 1,915 1,875
1,215
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July
2021
Annual home sales, 2007-July2021
2020 and 2021 to be Record Years for Chatham
Home Sales
1,008
797
699
782
858
1,037
1,320 1,318 1,297
1,412
1,323 1,297 1,315
1,454
927
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July
2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
Annual home sales, 2007-July2021
Since 2010, Orange Adds Fewest New Homes in the Region
New for-sale housing units built since 2010
2,307
3,861
9,130
44,804
Orange
Chatham
Durham
Wake
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
4% of Orange County Total Housing Stock Has Been
Built Since 2010, 13% in Chatham
Percent of available housing units built since 2010
4.1%
13.4%
7.6%
12.0%
Orange
Chatham
Durham
Wake
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
Source: 5 Year American Community Survey, 2019
Median year structure
built in Orange County
Median year structure
built in Chatham County
1986
1993
2020 Prices
In 2020, Orange Home Sales Price Rise to Nearly $328K
Orange County median home sales price, 2011-2020
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$262,250
$265,000
$274,450
$267,000
$290,000
$300,000
$315,000
$315,000
$315,000
$327,750
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
In 2020, Chatham Home Sales Price up to Nearly $440K
Chatham County median home price, 2011-July2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$274,990
$277,700
$303,350
$317,373
$335,000
$352,140
$369,000
$388,000
$399,000
$439,775
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Five-Year Home Price Growth Rate Led By Durham
Percent change in median home sales price, 2016 vs. 2020
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
9%
18%
25%
37%
27%
Orange (all)
CHCCS District
Chatham
Durham
Wake
37% of Orange; 20% of Chatham Homes Sold for Less Than
$300,000
Percent of 2020 home sales by price
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
8%
11%
13%
9%
11%
26%
16%
34%
22%
15%
18%
13%
39%
34%
28%
39%
21%
14%
25%
5%
Chatham Co. (All)
Orange Co. (All)
CHCCS District
Orange Co (not
CHCCS)
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
799 Homes in Orange; 271 in Chatham Sold for Less Than
$300,000 in 2020
2020 number of homes sold by price
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
112
237
129
108
159
562
162
400
316
334
180
154
566
742
279
463
311
311
251
60
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250
Chatham Co.(All)
Orange Co. (All)
CHCCS District
Orange Co. (not
CHCCS)
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
2021 Prices
Orange Home Sales Price Up $100,000 (30%) From 2019
Orange County median home sales price, 2011-July 2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$262,250
$265,000
$274,450
$267,000
$290,000
$300,000
$315,000
$315,000
$315,000
$327,750
$415,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Jan-July 2021
Chatham Home Sales Price Up $100,000 (25%) From 2019
Chatham County median home price, 2011-July2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$274,990
$277,700
$303,350
$317,373
$335,000
$352,140
$369,000
$388,000
$399,000
$439,775
$499,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Jan-July 2021
Chatham, Orange, and CHCCS District Home Prices
Increase $100k since 2019
Median residential closing price, 2010-July2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$388,000
$499,000
$315,000
$415,000
$377,000
$489,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Chatham Orange (all) CHCCS District
CHCCS Leads in Price Per Square Foot ($218) and
Orange Leads PPSF Increase (17.5%)
Median price per square foot (PPSF), 2020 vs. Jan-July 2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$171
$188
$167
$154 $152
$201
$218
$190
$179 $174
Orange CHCCS District Chatham Durham Wake
2020 Jan-July 2021
Chatham Leads at $499,000 Followed by CHCCS at
$489,000. Median Durham Closing $329,000
Median Closing Price 2020 vs. Jan-July 2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
$327,750
$411,000
$439,775
$290,000
$337,539
$415,000
$489,000 $499,000
$329,110
$380,000
Orange CHCCS District Chatham Durham Wake
2020 Jan-July 2021
2020 to 2021 Home Price Growth Rate Led By Orange
Change in median home sale price, 2020 vs. Jan-July 2021
Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
27%
19%
13%
13%
13%
Orange (all)
CHCCS District
Chatham
Durham
Wake
Rental Housing
Share of renter-occupied households 2015-2019
Over Half of Chapel Hill & Carrboro Residents Rent
37%
24%
35%
46%
36% 35%
50%
57%
35%
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North
Carolina
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
Chapel Hill Leads with a Median Rent of $1,191
Median rent 2015-2019
Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
$1,191
$1,150
$1,093
$1,078
$1,067
$1,025
$907
$845
$813
Chapel Hill
Wake
Orange
Carrboro
Durham
Hillsborough
North Carolina
Chatham
Alamance
Growth in Median Rent, 2014 to 2019
Percent change in median rent (2010-2014)to (2015-2019)
Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
10%
0%
2%
12%
14%
6%
12%
14%
16%
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North
Carolina
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
Percent of Cost-Burdened Households in Orange
Exceeds 50%
Percent of households ‘cost-burdened’ spending greater than 30% of household income on rent, 2015-2019
Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
51%
45%
49% 49%
43%
47%
57% 55%
52%
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North
Carolina
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
61%
32%
26%
57%
67%
40%
72%
59%
54%
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham
County
Wake North
Carolina
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
2015-2019
Over Half of Renters in Orange, Durham, and Wake Pay
More than $1,000 Month in Rent
Share of renters paying more than $1,000 in rent, 2015-2019
Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
Fair Market Rent
2021 Local and State Fair Market Rent
North
Carolina
Durham-Chapel Hill
HMFA
(Orange, Durham, Chatham,
& Person Counties)
Raleigh MSA
Alamance
County
Zero Bedroom $786 $972 $1,013 $636
One Bedroom $811 $974 $1,053 $682
Two Bedroom $960 $1,134 $1,200 $885
Three Bedroom $1,269 $1,493 $1,509 $1,126
Four Bedroom $1,556 $1,715 $1,950 $1,201
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach Report 2021
Orange County 2021 Housing Wage is $18.73 for a
1-Bedroom Apartment (was $17.35 in 2020)
Housing wage: hourly wages needed to afford Fair Market Rent, 2021
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach Report 2021
North
Carolina
Durham-Chapel Hill
HMFA
(Orange, Durham, Chatham,
& Person Counties)
Raleigh MSA
Alamance
County
Zero Bedroom $15.12 $18.69 $19.48 $12.23
One Bedroom $15.60 $18.73 $20.25 $13.12
Two Bedroom $18.46 $21.81 $23.08 $17.02
Three Bedroom $24.41 $28.71 $29.02 $21.65
Four Bedroom $29.92 $32.98 $37.50 $23.10
$45,360 Income Needed to Afford 2-Bedroom Fair Market
Rent (was $42,200 in 2020)
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach Report 2021
Annual salary needed to afford Fair Market Rent, 2021
North
Carolina
Durham-Chapel Hill
HMFA
(Orange, Durham, Chatham,
& Person Counties)
Raleigh MSA
Alamance
County
Zero Bedroom $31,453 $38,880 $40,520 $25,440
One Bedroom $32,439 $38,960 $42,120 $27,280
Two Bedroom $38,400 $45,360 $48,000 $35,400
Three Bedroom $50,774 $59,720 $60,360 $45,040
Four Bedroom $62,237 $68,600 $78,000 $48,040
Occupation and
Employment
Orange County Top 25 Employers
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
1. UNC Chapel Hill
2. UNC Health Care System
3. NC Health (UNC Health)
4. Chapel Hill-CarrboroCity Schools
5. Local Government (Orange County
Government)
6. Orange County Schools
7. Town Of Chapel Hill
8. Wal-MartAssociates
9. Eurosport
10. Harris Teeter
11. Food Lion
12. United Parcel Service
13. Wellspring Grocery (Whole Foods)
14. AKG Of America
15. PHE Inc
16. Summit Design & Engineering Service
17. Carol Woods Retirement Community
18. Performance Automall
19. Weaver Street Market
20. Westrock Services LLC
21. Noom Inc.
22. U S Postal Service
23. Residential Services
24. Piedmont Health Services
25. Strata Solar
As listed by the NC Dept of Commerce in 2019. Some are no longer located in Orange County.
Chamber staff has added additional descriptions (in parentheses)
Chatham County Top 25 Employers
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
1. Chatham County Schools
2. Chatham County Government
3. Mountaire Farms Of NC
4. Carolina Meadows
5. Galloway Ridge
6. Wal-MartAssociates
7. NC Health (UNC Health)
8. Flakeboard America Limited
9. Harris Teeter
10. Piedmont Health Services
11. Food Lion
12. Aegis Home Care
13. Lowes Home Centers
14. Fitch Creations (Fearrington)
15. Brookwood Farms
16. The Laurels Of Chatham
17. Scotts & Associates
18. Mas Acme Usa
19. Southern Veneer Specialty Products
20. Sunrise Home Care
21. Packers Sanitation Services
22. Town & Country HardwareStores
23. Palletone Of North Carolina
24. Governors Club
25. Genesis Administrative Services LLC
As listed by the NC Dept of Commerce in 2019. Some are no longer locatedin Orange County.
Chamber staff has added additionaldescriptions(in parentheses)
Top 10 Orange County Industries by Number of Enterprises
Organized by NAICS code, 2020
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
160
175
203
244
328
340
342
420
571
928
Information
Educational Services
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Construction
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Top 10 Orange County Industries by Average Employment
Organized by NAICS code, 2020
1,083
1,179
1,810
1,982
2,615
3,755
4,666
6,353
18,805
21,008
Information
Finance and Insurance
Construction
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
Top 10 Chatham County Industries by Number of Enterprises
Organized by NAICS code,2020
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
52
74
80
80
102
130
151
180
221
248
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Finance and Insurance
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Construction
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Top 10 Chatham County Industries by Average Employment
Organized by NAICS code, 2020
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
417
452
532
537
656
1,041
1,113
1,373
1,721
2,396
Wholesale Trade
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Transportation and Warehousing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Public Administration
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Orange County Employer Firms
(Firms with Employees)
Estimated Number
of Orange County
Employer Firms
Total = 2,885 Firms
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
Carrboro, 391
(14%)
Chapel Hill, 1,502
(52%)
Hillsborough,
321 (11%)
Rest of Orange,
671 (23%)
Estimated Minority-Owned Employer Firms
Estimatednumber of minority-owned firms with employees by county
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
349
155
1,051
262 318
Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Johnston
33% of Carrboro Firms are Women-Owned
Estimatedwomen-owned employer firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total
payroll
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
33%
22% 22%
18%
20%
17%
21% 20%
23%
4%
6% 6%
2% 2%
4% 4%
20%
8% 8% 7%
3% 3%
7% 6%
Carrboro Chapel Hill Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Wake County North
Carolina
% of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll
Minority-Owned Employers Make Up 11-18% of All Firms
Estimatedminority-owned employer firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of
total payroll
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
11%
12% 12%
18%
11% 11%
15%
12%
3% 3%
4%
2% 2% 2%
3% 2%
3% 3%
4%
3% 3% 3%
4%
3%
Chapel Hill Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Johnston
County
Wake County North
Carolina
% of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll
Hispanic-Owned Employers Less Than 4% of All Firms
EstimatedHispanic-owned firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total payroll
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
2.1%
3.9% 3.8% 3.9%
3.4%
2.9%
0.7% 1.0%
0.5% 0.6%
1.1%
0.6%
0.5%
1.0%
0.4%
1.2% 1.0%
0.7%
Chapel Hill Orange County Durham County Johnston County Wake County North Carolina
% of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll
Note: Chatham County values for this arenot reported due to data suppression due
to quality control. This is likely becauseof a very small sample size.
Black-Owned Employers Less Than 7% of All Firms
EstimatedBlack-owned employer firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total
payroll
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
1.9%
6.7%
2.5% 2.2%
3.8% 3.5%
0.2%
0.5% 0.3%
0.8%
0.4% 0.5%
0.2%
0.8%
0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
Chapel Hill Durham County Alamance County Johnston County Wake County North Carolina
% of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll
Note: Orange& Chatham County values for this are not reported due to data
suppression dueto quality control. This is likely because of a very smallsample size.
Durham (37%) Leads Counties and Hillsborough (21%) Leads
Cities in Minority-Owned Businesses
Estimatedminority-owned firms as percent of all firms
Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey
10%
12%
14%
14%
14%
15%
15%
20%
21%
21%
23%
26%
29%
37%
Bloomington (IN)
Chatham County (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Orange County (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Carrboro (NC)
Johnston County (NC)
Alamance County (NC)
Hillsborough (NC)
North Carolina
Wake County (NC)
United States
Durham County (NC)
Unemployment
Unlike Great Recession, Covid Unemployment Returns to
Pre-Pandemic Levels in 12 Months
Monthly unemployment rate (unadjusted), 1/2008 – 6/2021
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Chapel Hill Chatham County North Carolina Orange County Durham County
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) via NC Department of Commerce
Beginning
of
Pandemic
End of Great
Recession
Monthly Unemployment Peaks in May 2020. Up
Slightly in June From April 2021 Low
Monthly unemployment rate unadjusted), 1/2019-6/2021
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County Durham County
Peak in May 2020
Chapel Hill:8.6%
Orange: 9.0%
Chatham: 9.1%
Durham: 11.2%
June 2021
Chapel Hill:4.0%
Orange: 3.7%
Chatham: 3.9%
Durham: 4.3%
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) via NC Department of Commerce
Monthly Unemployed Individuals Half of May Peak
Monthly unemployed individuals, 1/2019 – 6/2021
2,429
1,279
2,985
1,414
6,516
2,952
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) via NC Department of Commerce
May 2020
Available Jobs
Orange County Has 4,000 Open Positions, 1,000 in
Healthcare Including 257 Registered Nurses
Orange County Jobs Snapshot, September 16, 2021
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
Orange County September 2021 Job Openings
Orange County Top 11 employers with open positions, September 16, 2021
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
Durham County Job Openings September 2021
Durham County Top 11 employers with open positions, September 16, 2021
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
Orange and Chatham County Industry Sectors Hiring
Orange + Chatham County Top 12 industry sectors with open positions, September 16, 2021
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
High-Demand Jobs, September 2021
Orange County Jobs in High Demand
Source: Burning Glass Technologies
Orange + Durham + Chatham
Jobs in High Demand
Program Sponsor
Visitors and Tourism
Orange County Average Daily Occupancy Rebounds
Average daily hotel occupancy rate, 2012 through Jan-Jul 2021
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
65% 65%
70% 71% 70% 67% 67% 67%
40%
58%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July
2021
Orange County Hotel Occupancy Returns to Pre-
Pandemic Levels in July 2021
Average daily hotel occupancy rate, by month, 2019-2021
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021
Orange County Average Daily Rate Drops 20%
County average daily hotel room rate, 2012-2021
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
$104 $106
$114
$121 $124 $126 $126 $130
$102 $103
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July
2021
Orange County Average Daily Rate in July 2021 tops July 2019
County average daily hotel room rate by month, 2019-2021
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
$149.15
$83.44
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021
Orange County RevPAR Still Down 23% from 2019
County average revenue per available room (RevPAR), 2012-2021
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
$68 $70
$79
$86 $87 $84 $85 $87
$41
$60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July
2021
Orange County Hotel Average Revenue per Room
County average revenue per available room (RevPAR)by month, 2019-2020
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021
Short Term Rentals
Orange County Short Term Rentals Continue to Demand a
Higher Room Rate and Earn a Higher Revenue Per
Available Room (RevPAR)
Jan-August, 2019-2021
Source: Chapel Hill-Orange County Visitors Bureau
$112.19
$129.08
$153.81
$66.71 $74.06
$99.58
2019 2020 2021
Average Daily Rate RevPAR
Short Term Rental Occupancy Rates Went Up as Supply
Decreased During the Pandemic
Total annual available room nights in Orange County by year, rental occupancy status, and occupancy rate
Jan-Aug, 2019-2021
Source: Chapel Hill-Orange County Visitors Bureau
59.5%
44,195
57.4%
34,848
64.7%
30,795
74,322
60,734
47,567
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2019 2020 2021
Occupancy and Occupied Available
Poverty and
Food Insecurity
Percent of People in Poverty Declines Across Region
from 2010 and 2015 to 2019
2000 2005 2010 2015 2019
Orange County 10% 14% 17% 14% 13%
Chatham County 9% 11% 14% 12% 9%
Durham County 11% 14% 18% 17% 14%
Alamance County 9% 12% 18% 19% 15%
Wake County 7% 10% 12% 11% 8%
North Carolina 12% 15% 17% 16% 14%
United States 11% 13% 15% 15% 12%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
Chatham and Wake Have Lowest Local Poverty Rate
Percent of people (all ages) in poverty, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
13%
9%
14% 15%
8%
14%
12%
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Wake
County
North
Carolina
United
States
Wake Has Lowest Local Child Poverty Rate
Percent of children (Under 18) in poverty, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
13% 12%
21% 22%
9%
19%
17%
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Wake
County
North
Carolina
United
States
Percent of Children in Poverty Down from Peak;
Orange Now Exceeds Chatham
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
17% 13%
22%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Orange County Chatham County
Percent of children (under 18) in poverty by county, 2000 to 2019
County Food and
Nutrition Services
Orange County FNS Cases & Participants Approaching
Post-Great Recession Peak After Start of COVID-19
Number of cases (families) and participants (individuals) receiving Orange County Food and Nutrition
Services (formerly Food Stamps) in January each year 2007 through 2021
Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services
Jan 2021,
5,757
Jan 2014, 6,279
Jan 2007, 2,925
Jan 2021,
11,193
Jan 2012, 11,779
Jan 2007, 6,111
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
Jan-21
Jan-20
Jan-19
Jan-18
Jan-17
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Cases Participants
Jan 2021, 2,637
Jan 2012, 3,079
Jan 2007, 1,345
Jan 2021, 5,350
Jan 2012, 6,632
Jan 2007, 2,948
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Cases Participants
Chatham County FNS Cases & Participants Rise Sharply
After Start of COVID-19
Number of cases (families) and participants (individuals) receiving Chatham County Food and Nutrition
Services (formerly Food Stamps) in January each year 2007 through 2021
Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services
Food Insecurity Rate Declines Across the Region
Percentage of population experiencing Food Insecurity 2013 vs. 2019 - (USDA: Food Insecurity is a lack of
consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life)
Source: Feeding America
15.4%
12.0%
16.7%
18.2%
14.4%
18.3%
11.6% 11.7%
13.7%
12.1%
10.1%
13.5%
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North Carolina
2013 2019
Number of Food Insecure Individuals Declines in Orange and
Neighboring Counties; Chatham Increases
Change in the number of food insecure individuals, 2013-2019(USDA: Food Insecurity is a lack of consistent
access to enough food for an active, healthy life)
Source: Feeding America
-4,140
600
-3,090
-12,530
-25,890
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
Orange, Durham, and Wake see 19%+ Declines in
Percent of People Food Insecure, 2013-2019
Change in the percent of food insecure individuals, 2013-2019(USDA:Food Insecurity is a lack of consistent
access to enough food for an active, health life)
Source: Feeding America
-19.8%
7.7%
-12.1%
-24.9%
-19.4% -21.3%
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North
Carolina
Local Schools
Public School Spending
Asheville and Chapel Hill-Carrboro Lead the State in
Per Pupil Expenditure
Total per pupil expenditure by LEA for the school year SY2020 (2019-20)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
$9,485
$9,615
$10,747
$11,684
$11,497
$12,956
$13,522
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
Asheville City Schools
CHCCS Leads in Local Per Pupil Expenditure
Total per pupil expenditure by LEA for the school year SY2020
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
$2,031
$2,859
$3,456
$3,833
$4,446
$5,956
$6,332
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Asheville City Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
3rd Grade Reading
Reading on Grade Level (Grade 3) Drops Sharply in
Pandemic. Down 11 Pts in CHCCS and 13 Pts in OCS
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
75% 74%
63%
63%
52%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Orange County Schools
Percent of students Grade Level Proficient (level 3+) in End-of-Grade (EOG) Reading Grade 3, SY2014-
SY2021. *No EOG tests were taken in 2020
CHCCS & Wake Outperform Neighbors on 3rd Grade
Reading End of Grade (EOG), SY2021
Percent of students “College and Career Ready” (level 4 or 5) and “Grade Level Proficient” (level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
45%
39%
63%
52%
37% 35%
60%
34% 31%
53%
39%
27% 24%
49%
NC OCS
(Orange)
CHCCS
(Orange)
Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
% Grade Level Proficient % College and Career Ready
Fewer Than 17% of Black and Hispanic Students
Reading on Grade Level in OCS, Less than 34% in CHCCS
EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficiency (level 3+) by race, SY2021
71%
30% 34%
78%
NA
17% 15%
57%
NA
29% 32%
70%
Asian Black Hispanic White
CHCCS Orange Chatham
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
Note: Orange& Chatham County values for Asian students are not reported due to
data suppression dueto the small number of students in these districts.
3rd Grade Reading CHCCS: Black Students Drop 27 Points,
Hispanic Drop 8 Points, All Drop 11 Points SY2019 to SY2021
CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficiency (level 3+) by race, SY2014 to SY2021.
No EOG Tests were taken in 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
All Asian Black Hispanic White
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
White/Hispanic Performance Gap Narrows in
CHCCS and OCS between SY2019 and SY2021
The number of percentage points between the percent of White students scoring “Grade Level Proficient”
(level 3) on Grade 3 Reading EOG, and Hispanic student performance on same EOG. No tests taken in 2020
48
42
54
46
50
46 44
36 34
37
45
38
44 42
32 33
36 36
28
34
39
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CHCCS OCS Chatham
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
White/Black Performance Gap Widens from SY2019 to
SY2021 in Orange, Chatham, and Chapel Hill-Carrboro
The number of percentage points between the percent of White students scoring “Grade Level Proficient”
(level 3) on the Grade 3 Reading EOG, and Black student performance on same EOG. No tests taken in 2020.
58
37
45
34
47
30
48
27
30
27
39
22
33
40
38
29
33
43
36
32
41
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CHCCS OCS Chatham
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
8th Grade
CHCCS and Wake Exceed Peers in Grade 8 Math End
of Grade (EOG) SY2021
Percent of students ‘College and Career Ready” (level 4 or 5) and “Grade Level Proficient” (level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
33%
28%
48%
27%
23% 24%
44%
17%
11%
29%
10% 12% 10%
24%
NC OCS
(Orange)
CHCCS
(Orange)
Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
% Grade Level Proficient % College and Career Ready
End of Grade Math, Grade 8, Performance Declines
Sharply in CHCCS and Orange County Schools
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
69%
59%
29%
36% 35%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Orange County Schools
Percent of students College and Career Ready (level 4 or 5) in End-of-Grade (EOG) Math Grade 8, SY2014 to
SY2021. No EOG Tests were taken in 2020
Covid Interrupts Tremendous OCS Progress for 8th Grade
Science Performance for Black Students
Orange County Schools Percentage of Black students “College and Career Ready” (level 4 or 5) on Grade 8
Science, EOG SY2014-SY2021
42%
67%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
High School
CHCCS Leads Peers in Students with UNC System Eligible
ACT Scores. 82% Earn Score of 17+
% of Students earning an UNC system-eligibleACT composite score (17+), SY2021
55%
62%
82%
65%
48%
58%
70%
NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS
(Orange)
Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
Only 37% of CHCCS’ and 42% of OCS’ Economically
Disadvantaged Students Earn UNC System Eligible ACTs
% of Economically DisadvantagedStudents earning an UNC system-eligible ACT composite score (17+), 2020-21
55%
62%
82%
65%
48%
58%
70%
34%
42%
37% 38%
31%
38% 38%
NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS
(Orange)
Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
All Students Economically Disadvantaged Students
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
Large Disparities Exist In Student ACT Performance
Percent of students earning an UNC system-eligible ACT composite score (17+) by race, SY2021
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
30%
27%
37% 36%
25%
43%
39%
40% 38%
55%
39% 38%
48% 46%
69%
77%
94%
80%
62%
90%
84%
NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS (Orange) Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
Black Hispanic White
Note: Orange& Chatham County values for Asian students are not reported due to
data suppression dueto the small number of students in these districts.
AP Participation Highest in Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Percent of high school students enrolled in AP courses, 2019-20
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
17% 19%
44%
18% 17%
21%
32%
17%
19%
46%
17%
13%
19%
33%
North
Carolina
OCS CHCCS Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
2019 2020
Covid School
Enrollment Impact
Student Headcount (ADM) Declines in 2020-21 School Year
Student increase/decrease in Month 2 Average Daily Members (ADM) SY2021 vs. SY2020
-351 (3.9%)
-334 (4.5%)
-540 (4.4%)
-874 (4.4%)
Chatham
OCS
CHCCS
Orange County (total)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
Fewer Students Enrolled in Orange (-4.5%) and
CHCCS (-4.4%) Schools in SY2021
Student increase/decrease in Month 2 Average Daily Members (ADM) SY2021 vs. SY2020
-423
-120
3
-540,
(-4.4%)
-179
-104
-51
-334,
(-4.5%)
Elementary School Middle School High School Total Enrollment
Change
Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools Orange County Schools
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
CHCCS Enrollments Down Most for
Kindergarten, Grade 3
Percent increase/decrease in Month 2 Average Daily Membership by grade, SY2021 vs. SY2020
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
-16.8%
-6.6%
-3.3%
-15.9%
-2.5% -2.7%
-8.4%
-2.8%
-0.6%
2.5%
-1.8%
-4.1%
4.1%
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Home School Enrollments Grew Fastest in Orange County
vs Pre-pandemic SY2019
Percent change in home school enrollments by county, SY2021 vs. SY2019
Source: NC Department of Administration
15% (344 students)
26% (3,325 students)
27% (37,863 students)
27% (631 students)
36% (363 students)
46% (565 students)
Alamance
Wake
North Carolina
Durham
Chatham
Orange
Private School Enrollments Declined in Orange; Grew
Fastest in Alamance vs. Pre-Pandemic SY2019
Percent change in private school enrollments, SY2021 vs SY2019
Source: NC Department of Administration
5.8% (95 students)
4.8% (4,941 students)
4.4% (818 students)
1.5% (73 students)
0.5% (1 student)
-2.2% (24 students)
Alamance
North Carolina
Wake
Durham
Chatham
Orange
Program Sponsor
Dr. Nyah Hamlett
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
President Janet Hadar
UNC Hospitals
Health Indicators
Orange Ranks First in Health Behaviors & Clinical Care, 2021
Orange Chatham Durham Who is #1
Length of Life 2 9 7 Wake
Quality of Life 3 12 8 Dare
Health Behaviors 1 3 4 Orange
Clinical Care 1 11 6 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors 2 16 26 Wake
Physical Environment 6 86 37 Onslow
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
County rank, out of the 100 counties in North Carolina
Adult Smoking
RWJF: Percentage of adults who are current smokers
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
18%
15%
17%
15%
21%
14%
13%
19%
21%
18%
12%
16%
Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city
visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are
among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
Access to Exercise Opportunities
RWJF: Percentage of population with adequate access to locations for physical activity
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city
visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are
among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
74%
84%
63%
90%
80%
90%
96%
82% 87% 92% 97%
89%
Violent Crime per 100,000 Residents
RWJF: Number of violent crime offenses per 100,000population
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city
visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are
among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
351
160 165
666
382
115
242
405
307
436
238
353
Uninsured Children
RWJF: Percentage of children under age 19 without health insurance
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city
visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are
among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
5% 5%
7%
5%
6%
5%
4%
7%
8%
1%
4%
2%
Life Expectancy
RWJF: Average number of years a person can expect to live
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city
visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are
among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
78.1
82.3
81.1
80.3
77.3
81.8
82.8
80.5
79.0 79.3
83.0
78.6
Drug Overdose Deaths
RWJF: Number of drug poisoning deaths per 100,000 population
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city
visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are
among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
22.3
12.1
15.5 15.3
24.1
12.4 13.0
17.9
11.8
34.9
19.4
15.2
Orange County Records Lowest Teenage Birth Rate, One
Fifth the NC Rate
RWJF: Number of births per 1,000 female population ages 15-19
Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings
22
4
15
21 20
12
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
Durham Tech
Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates (2020)
Source: Durham Tech
100%
96%
96%
100%
92%
Practical Nursing
Registered Nursing
EMT
EMT-P
Esthetician
In-Person Credit Classes Offered at Durham Tech Orange
County Campus Greatly Impacted by Covid
Number of in-person classes offered
Source: Durham Tech
143 144
128 133
41
2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
Durham Tech Orange County Campus In-Person Credit
Class Enrollment Greatly Impacted by Covid-19
Available in-person seats used
Source: Durham Tech
1,418
2,582
2,789
2,459 2,401 2,417 2,344
2,153 2,193
252
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
60% of Durham Tech
Students Who Graduated
from Chapel Hill and
Orange County Schools
Received Financial Aid
Pell Grants and other forms
of financial aid, 2020-2021
Source: Durham Tech
60%
Durham Tech (Orange County Campus) Career and College
Promise (CCP) & Orange County Promise (OCP) Awards
Source: Durham Tech
59
108
143 151
46
92
178 189
232 226
2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
CCP students taking classes OCP students taking classes
Age of Orange
County Residents
(612) in Credit
Classes
Durham Tech Orange
County Campus (2019-
2020)
Source: Durham Tech
17 and
under
37%
18-24
39%
25-44
21%
45-64
3%
UNC Chapel Hill
UNC-Chapel Hill Student and
Employee Populations
UNC-Chapel Hill Student Population Grows ~200 Students
Per Year Over 30 Years
Total student population (full- and part-time), 1991-2020
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
29,877
23,852
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Resident
Student
Housing, 8,015
(27%) Married Student
Housing, 540
(2%)
Off-Campus
Housing, 19,263
(64%)
Fraternity and
Sorority
Housing, 834
(3%)
University-Affiliated(Granville
Towers), 1,225 (4%)
2019
UNC-Chapel Hill
Student
Enrollment by
Housing Type
29,877 Students
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research and Analysis
UNC-Chapel Hill Employment Surpasses 13,000
UNC-CH employment by employment classification, 1991-2019
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
SHRA Employees (Formerly SPA Employees) EHRA Employees (Formerly Faculty and EPA Employees)
Total:
13,029
Living in
Orange County
45%
Living Outside of
Orange County
55%
45% of
UNC-Chapel Hill
Employees Live
in Orange
County, 2018
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research and Analysis
135
231
260
50
200
-42
-7
6
9
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Other Counties
Chatham
Person
Lee
Guilford
Largest Growth in UNC-Chapel Hill Employee Residence is
Wake County
Change in number of UNC employees by county of residence, 2015-2019. total of 842 additional employees
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research and Analysis
UNC-Chapel Hill Research Funding Approaches $1 Billion
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
$941 Million
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
$800,000,000
$900,000,000
$1,000,000,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1980
UNC-Chapel Hill’s State Appropriation Below 2009 Levels
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
$518 Million
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
UNC-Chapel Hill Revenues Rise Rapidly, While State
Appropriations Flat
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
$3.4 Billion
$518 Million
$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$3,500,000,000
$4,000,000,000
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
Total Revenues State Appropriations
Value of UNC-Chapel Hill’s Endowment, 1991-2019
In billions
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
$3.31
Billion
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
Innovation and the
University
2021 State of the Community Report Presentation
2021 State of the Community Report Presentation
2021 State of the Community Report Presentation
2021 State of the Community Report Presentation
2021 State of the Community Report Presentation
Tax Base
and Property Taxes
2021 North Carolina Municipal Tax Rates
2020-21 city and town property tax rates
Source: NC Department of Revenue
Huntersville, 0.240
Cary, 0.350
Raleigh, 0.355
Apex, 0.380
Durham, 0.532
Chapel Hill, 0.544
Carrboro, 0.599
Hillsborough, 0.620
Salisbury, 0.720
Huntersville
Charlotte
Cary
Raleigh
Morrisville
Apex
Asheville
Concord
Greenville
Wilmington
Fayetteville
Gastonia
Durham
Chapel Hill
Wilson
Hickory
Burlington
Carrboro
Monroe
Hillsborough
Kannapolis
Winston-Salem
Jacksonville
High Point
Goldsboro
Greensboro
Rocky Mount
Salisbury
Local Jurisdictions Have Highest Combined Property Tax Rate
2020-21 combined all jurisdictions property tax rates (municipal + county + school tax rates)
Source: NC Department of Revenue
Hickory, .5875
Cary, .9500
Raleigh, .9552
Apex, .9800
Durham, 1.2439
Hillsborough, 1.4879
Chapel Hill, 1.6137
Carrboro, 1.6691
Hickory
Huntersville
Cary
Raleigh
Asheville
Morrisville
Charlotte
Apex
Wilmington
Greenville
Concord
Durham
Burlington
Fayetteville
Wilson
Goldsboro
Jacksonville
Monroe
Gastonia
Rocky Mount
Kannapolis
Salisbury
High Point
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Hillsborough
Chapel Hill
Carrboro
Chapel Hill Has Highest Average Residential Property Tax Bill
Combined local property tax rates (2020-21)assessedon local median home value, May 2020
Hickory, $1,247
Raleigh, $3,349
Durham, $3,880
Cary, $4,327
Apex, $4,370 Hillsborough, $5,243
Carrboro, $5,787
Chapel Hill, $7,549
Hickory
Rocky Mount
Wilson
Greenville
Burlington
Fayetteville
Goldsboro
Jacksonville
High Point
Winston-Salem
Salisbury
Greensboro
Kannapolis
Gastonia
Charlotte
Wilmington
Raleigh
Huntersville
Asheville
Monroe
Concord
Morrisville
Durham
Cary
Apex
Hillsborough
Carrboro
Chapel Hill
Source: NC Department of Revenue; Zillow
Orange County Assessed
Value
Chapel Hill Commercial Value increases by $1 Billion,
Apartments by Almost $700 Million Since 2017
Chapel Hill assessedvalue by category (in $millions), 2017-2021
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
$1,443 $1,461 $1,675 $1,719 $2,467
$793 $990 $1,017 $1,075
$1,473
$5,118 $5,333 $5,363
$7,059
$7,822
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Commercial Apartments Residential
From 2017 to 2021, Assessed Value of
Commercial Property in Chapel Hill Grows 71%
Chapel Hill change in assessedvalue (in $millions) from 2017 to 2021
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
$1,024 (71%)
$679 (86%)
$2,704 (53%)
Commercial Apartments Residential
Chapel Hill Now 67% Residential, 13% Apartments, and
21% Commercial in 2021
Chapel Hill assessedvalue percentages by type 2017-2021
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
20%
19%
21%
17%
21%
11%
13%
13%
11%
13%
70%
69%
67%
72%
67%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Commercial Apartments Residential
Orange County Assessed Value Grows to $24 Billion
Orange County assessedvalue (in $millions) change over time. *accurate 2018 and 2019 were not available
at time of presentation
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
$2,511 $2,933 $4,069
$1,226 $1,541
$2,117
$13,494
$16,203
$18,022
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Commercial Apartments Residential
Orange County Commercial Value Increases 62%,
Nearly Twice as Fast at Residential Percent Growth
Change in Orange County assessedvalue (in $millions) from 2017 to 2021
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
$1,559 (62%)
$891 (73%)
$4,528 (34%)
Commercial Apartments Residential
Orange County Now 74% Residential; Commercial
Grows to 17%
Orange County assessedvalue percentages by type 2017-2021 *2018 & 2019 not available at time of
presentation
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
15%
14%
17%
7%
7%
9%
78%
78%
74%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Commercial Apartments Residential
2021 Carrboro
Commercial
Building Value
(in millions)
Total: $284,050,200
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
Apartments, $167
Hotel,
$19
Industrial, $11
Office, $52
Restaurant, $4
Retail, $31
2021
Hillsborough
Commercial
Building Value
(in millions)
Total: $295,854,100
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
Apartments,
$84
Hotel, $9
Industrial,
$63
Office, $91
Restaurant, $6 Retail, $43
Mebane
(Orange County)
Commercial
Building Value
(in millions)
Total: $160,590,400
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor
Apartments,
$16
Hotel, $0
Industrial,
$121
Office, $19
Restaurant, $3 Retail, $2
Before Commuting Data…
a Word From RTP
Program Sponsor
Commuting
Worker Inflow, Outflow, and
Commuting
Orange County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
48,116 drive in, 38,088 drive out, and 19,965 live and work in Orange County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Orange County’s 68,081 Workers Live?
Orange County workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
29%, 19,965
19%, 13,231
15%, 10,177
10%, 6,900
7%, 4,607
2%, 1,364
1%, 891
1%, 862
1%, 811
1%, 588
13%, 8,685
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Chatham
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Person
Forsyth
All Other Locations
3,972 More Orange County Workers Commuting
from Wake County than in 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
-1,875
1,792
3,972
1,226
565
359
450
40
236
112
2,032
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Chatham
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Person
Forsyth
All Other Locations
Change in number of Orange County workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018
Where do Orange County’s 59,053 Working Residents Go
to Work?
Location of primary job for Orange County residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
34%, 19,965
25%, 14,734
16%, 9,133
4%, 2,526
3%, 1,841
3%, 1,730
1%, 771
1%, 528
1%, 308
.5%, 290
11%, 6,227
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Guilford
Mecklenburg
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
Where Orange County Residents Work is Changing, with
2,051 More Commuting to Wake County for Work
Change in location of Orange County residents’ primary job, 2008-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
-1,875
270
2,051
349
72
149
34
-44
-70
91
909
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Guilford
Mecklenburg
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
43,336 drive in, 14,558 drive out, and 6,448 live and work in Chapel Hill
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Chapel Hill workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
28%, 16,245
22%, 9,687
18%, 5,448
8%, 3,600
7%, 3,009
2%, 638
1%, 319
1%, 691
1%, 370
1%, 265
11%, 4,358
Orange
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Alamance
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Forsyth
Person
All Other Locations
Where do Chapel Hill’s 49,784 Workers Live?
2,260 Fewer Chapel Hill Workers From Orange
County Than in 2008
Change in number of Chapel Hill workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
-2,260
1,128
3,298
358
734
177
378
-75
4
93
1,319
Orange
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Alamance
Guilford
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Forsyth
Person
All Other Locations
Where do Chapel Hill’s 21,006 Working Residents Go
To Work?
Location of primary job for Chapel Hill residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
35%, 7,329
25%, 5,178
16%, 3,449
4%, 755
3%, 649
2%, 411
1%, 291
1%, 238
1%, 129
1%, 120
12%, 2,457
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
Where Chapel Hill Residents Work is Changing, with
More Working in Wake over the Decade
Change in location of Chapel Hill residents’ primary job, 2008-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
-690
140
868
87
-6
63
18
-12
-32
34
363
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Cumberland
New Hanover
All Other Locations
Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
3,951 drive in, 8,577 drive out, and 597 live and work in Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Carrboro’s 9,174 Working Residents Go To
Work?
Location of primary job for Carrboro residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
44%, 4,052
20%, 1,853
15%, 1,370
3%, 238
3%, 233
2%, 215
2%, 203
1%, 79
.5%, 42
.4%, 41
9%, 848
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Lee
Cumberland
All Other Locations
Where Carrboro Residents Work is Changing, with 746
More Working in Wake & Durham Than in 2008
Change in location of Carrboro residents’ primary job, 2008-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
44
392
354
26
25
35
39
-7
15
-16
132
Orange
Durham
Wake
Mecklenburg
Guilford
Alamance
Chatham
Forsyth
Lee
Cumberland
All Other Locations
Hillsborough Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
4,590 drive in, 2,883 drive out, and 257 live and work in Hillsborough
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Hillsborough’s 4,847 Workers Live?
Hillsborough workers by county of residence, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
39%, 1,894
16%, 798
15%, 720
6%, 315
3%, 144
3%, 135
2%, 109
1%, 61
1%, 46
1%, 34
12%, 591
Orange
Alamance
Durham
Wake
Person
Guilford
Chatham
Caswell
Johnston
Granville
All Other Locations
Where do Hillsborough’s 3,140 Working Residents
Go To Work?
Location of primary job for Hillsborough residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
30%, 929
29%, 899
15%, 472
7%, 210
3%, 100
3%, 88
1%, 29
1%, 28
.6%, 20
.6%, 19
11%, 346
Orange
Durham
Wake
Alamance
Guilford
Mecklenburg
Forsyth
Chatham
New Hanover
Randolph
All Other Locations
Chatham County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018
9,653 drive in, 23,050 drive out, and 5,566 live and work in Chatham
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
Where do Chatham County’s 28,616 Working Residents Work?
Location of primary job for Chatham County residents, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
23%, 6,571
19%, 5,566
16%, 4,607
13%, 3,680
4%, 1,202
3%, 967
3%, 951
3%, 854
3%, 764
1%, 278
11%, 3,176
Wake
Chatham
Orange
Durham
Lee
Guilford
Randolph
Mecklenburg
Alamance
Forsyth
All Other Locations
Young Workers
Young Workers Driving into Orange County for Work
at All Time High, Up Over 14.5% from 2016
Young Workers (29 and younger) Living in another county driving into Orange County for work, 2002-2018
Source: US Census Bureau, LODES
8,840
10,562
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Majority of Orange and Chatham Residents Work Outside
the County They Live In
Percent of residents commuting outside of the county for work, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
66% 81%
of Orange County
ResidentsCommute Out
of Chatham County
ResidentsCommute Out
Most County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters
Percent of county jobs filled by in-commuters, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
71%
of Orange County Jobs
Filled by In-Commuters
63%
of Chatham County
Jobs Filled by In-
Commuters
Transit and Transportation
Annual Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (in millions)
FY2007-FY2021
Source: Chapel Hill Transit
6.0
6.4
7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7
6.3 6.2
6.6
7.0
5.6
1.6
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Annual GoTriangle Ridership (in millions)
FY2007-FY2021
Source: GoTriangle
0.9 0.9
1.1 1.1
1.3
1.6
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7
1.4
1.2
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Regional Transit Ridership Peaks at 15.3 million (FY19) and
Declines to 7.2 million in FY21
Regional Transit Ridership (in millions) FY2010 to FY2021
Source: Chapel Hill Transit, GoTriangle
7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.0
5.6
1.6
1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7
1.4
1.2
5.0 5.6 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.6
5.6
4.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
GoDurham GoTriangle Chapel Hill Transit
Pandemic Restrictions, University Operations, and
Changing Work Habits Have Big Impact on Ridership
Monthly Ridership Totals January 2019 through June 2021
Source: Chapel Hill Transit; GoTriangle
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
GoTriangle CH Transit
Another word, from our
friends at Coastal
Program Sponsor
Crime
Chatham County Violent Crime Hits Ten Year High with
Orange County Approaching a Ten Year Low
Source: NC State Bureau of Investigation
Orange, 152
Chatham, 213
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Orange Chatham
Violent crimes per 100,000 residents (2010-2019)
Property Crime Down 40% in Orange and Chatham
Over the Decade
Property crimes per 100,000 residents (2010-2019)
Source: NC State Bureau of Investigation
Orange, 2,763
Orange, 1,646
Chatham, 2,018
Chatham, 1,235
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Orange Chatham
Total Incidents by Department
(Murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft)
Source: NC State Bureau of Investigation
1,759 1,629 1,580 1,349 1,434 1,348 1,474 1,466
709 754 657
629 526 501 469 470
792 735
623
534 502
465
547 667
392 488
485
464 441 491
425 376
294 352
374
308 327 266 217 241
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chapel Hill PD Carrboro PD Orange County Sheriff Hillsborough PD UNC Chapel Hill PS
Land Use
2020 Orange
County Land
Distribution
Total: 398 square miles
Source: American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates, 2015-2019
Mebane
2.5 sq mi
0.6%
Carrboro
6.5 sq mi
1.6%
Chapel Hill
20.1 sq mi
5.0%
Hillsborough
5.7 sq mi
1.4%
Unincorporated Orange
362.8 sq mi 91%
2020 Orange
County
Housing
Distribution
61,211 total housing units
Source: 2020 Census
Mebane
1,322
2%
Carrboro
9,912
16%
Chapel Hill
22,138
36%
Hillsborough
4,267 7%
Unincorporated
Orange
23,555
39%
Protected Lands
Orange County Protected Land Acreage
Total acreage of “partially protected” and “totally protected” land
Source: Orange County Government, 2019 State of the Environment Report
4,380
9,318
16,397
20,413
22,907
24,647 24,647 25,471
Pre-1981 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-04 2005-08 2009-13 2014 2019
Percentage of Protected Land in Orange County
Percent Orange County lands that are “totally protected” and “partially protected”
1.7%
3.6%
6.4%
7.9%
8.9%
9.6% 9.6% 9.9%
Pre-1981 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-04 2005-08 2009-13 2014 2019
Source: Orange County Government, 2019 State of the Environment Report
Farming
Number of Orange County Farms Is Increasing
USDA Census of Agriculture: Total Number of Farms in Orange County
Source: US Department of Agriculture
604
645
686
2007 2012 2017
Orange County Land in Farms (acres) in Increasing
USDA Agricultural Census: total acres farmed in Orange County
Source: US Department of Agriculture
60,057 56,666
69,908
2007 2012 2017
Value of Orange County Farm Product Sales Growing
USDA Agricultural Census: market value of Orange County products sold
Source: US Department of Agriculture
$28,084,000
$30,613,000
$37,713,000
2007 2012 2017
Renewables
Orange Co. Lags in Renewable Energy Production Capacity
County Renewable Energy Production Capacity (megawatts)
Source: NC Sustainable Agriculture Association, 2020
3.18 6.3
6.635 1.89
19.1
47.8
36.8
23.6
56.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
Biomass Hydroelectric Solar
Orange and Chatham Solar Installations
Source: NC Sustainable Agriculture Association, 2020
OWASA Accounts Grow by 10,000, But Daily Water Use
Near Same as 1986
Annual customer account totals and daily usage totals 1986-2021
Source: OWASA
11,343 Accounts
21,921 Accounts
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5,000
8,000
11,000
14,000
17,000
20,000
23,000
Million
gallons/day
(avg)
Customer
Accounts
Customer Accounts Water Sales (Million Gallons Per Day Avg.)
Waste and Recycling
County Recycling Program Performance, FY 2016-17
Top 5 Public Recycling Per Capita
Top 5 Household Recyclables Per
Capita Recovery
Iredell County (1) Catawba County (1)
Catawba County (2) Dare County (2)
Pitt County (3) Orange County (3)
Orange County (4) Pitt County (4)
Macon County (5) Currituck County (5)
Chatham County (50) Chatham County (47)
Source: NC Division of Environmental Assistance and Customer Service (DEACS)
Program Sponsor
2021 State of the Community Report Presentation
2021 Community Data Partners
Program Sponsors
Program Sponsors
Contributing Sponsors
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2021 State of the Community Report Presentation

  • 1. 2021 State of the Community Report Coming to You from Chapel Hill Public Library presented by
  • 2. Tom Wiltberger Tera Nova Global Properties
  • 5. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
  • 6. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
  • 11. Local Population Totals + Decennial and Annual Growth Rates Source: US Census Bureau 2010 2020 Growth Rate Growth Rate Per Year Orange County 133,801 148,696 11% 1.1% Hillsborough 6,087 9,660 59% 4.6% Carrboro 19,582 21,295 9% 0.8% Chapel Hill 57,233 61,960 8% 0.8% Chatham County 63,505 76,285 20% 1.8% North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 9% 0.9%
  • 12. Fastest Growth in Triangle, Charlotte, Wilmington Population growth rate (%) for NC counties, 2010-2020 Source: US Census Bureau
  • 13. Chatham 3rd Fastest-Growing Among Peer Counties Population growth rate, 2010-2020 Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates 25% 21% 20% 13% 11% 9% Wake County Durham County Chatham County Alamance County Orange County North Carolina
  • 14. Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham County Numeric population growth, 2010-2020 Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates 12,780 14,895 20,284 57,246 228,417 903,905 Chatham County Orange County Alamance County Durham County Wake County North Carolina
  • 15. Orange County 2010s Population Increases on Par with 1960s Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020 Source: Decennial Census 1,901 11,363 8,535 14,737 19,348 16,796 24,376 15,574 14,895 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
  • 16. Chatham County Decennial Population Growth Second Largest Ever Numeric growth by decade, 1930-2020 Source: Decennial Census 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 12,780 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
  • 17. Wake Suburbs Among Fastest-Growing Areas in Region Population growth rate (%) by census tract, 2010-2020 Source: US Census Bureau
  • 18. Mebane’s Population Growth Rate Exceeds Neighbors Population growth rate, 2010-2020 Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates 77% 59% 56% 21% 9% 9% 8% Mebane (Orange County) Hillsborough Mebane (Total) Pittsboro Carrboro Chapel Hill (Orange County) Chapel Hill (Total)
  • 19. Mebane Exceeds All Neighbors in Numeric Growth Numeric population growth, 2010-2020 6,404 4,727 4,657 3,573 1,713 1,378 794 Mebane (Total) Chapel Hill (Total) Chapel Hill (Orange County) Hillsborough Carrboro Mebane (Orange County) Pittsboro Source: Decennial Census and Census Population Estimates
  • 20. Smallest Numeric Growth in Carrboro since 1970s Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020 2,278 4,798 4,648 2,800 1,710 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: Decennial Census
  • 21. 2010s Chapel Hill’s Slowest Decade of Population Growth Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020 6,222 6,290 7,308 11,214 4,554 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: Decennial Census
  • 22. Hillsborough’s 2010s Population Growth Twice as Large as any Previous Decade Numeric growth by decade, 1970-2020 1,575 1,244 1,183 641 3,053 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: Decennial Census
  • 23. Net Migration Drove Population Growth for Orange & Neighbors in 2019-2020 Rate of net migration and natural increase (births-deaths) per 1,000 residents, July 1, 2019-June30, 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Components of Change 1.4 -2.9 0.4 5.4 5.3 4.6 20.7 12.4 8.0 12.0 Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake Natural Increase Rate Net Migration Rate
  • 25. Orange County Population by Race/Ethnicity Changes by Decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census 80% 76% 71% 65% 16% 14% 12% 10% 4% 8% 11% 3% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 6% 1990 2000 2010 2020 All Other Races Asian Hispanic Black White Values less than 1% not labeled
  • 26. State and County Minority Make-Up (2020) 21% 11% 12% 10% 9% 12% 3% 8% 2% 3% 3% 2% North Carolina Orange County Chatham County Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other* Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census | 5-Year American Community Survey *includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
  • 27. Municipality Minority Make-Up (2020) 9% 10% 18% 8% 13% 10% 15% 9% 2% 5% 6% 6% Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Black Hispanic (Any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other* Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census | 5-Year American Community Survey *includes American-Indian, multi-racial, and other races
  • 29. Three Options for Projecting Growth Source: Decennial Census Exponential (2010-2020) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Orange 1.1% 1,998 people 1,490 people Chatham 1.8% 1,237 people 1,278 people Carrboro 0.8% 372 people 171 people Chapel Hill 0.8% 926 people 473 people Hillsborough 4.6% 91 people 357 people
  • 30. Orange County Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 228,596 208,276 148,696 226,808 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 31. Chatham County Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 76,285 125,777 127,405 158,842 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 32. Chapel Hill Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 99,004 80,868 61,960 85,108 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 33. Carrboro Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 36,191 28,147 21,295 29,782 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 34. Hillsborough Population Projections Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 13,308 23,952 9,660 61,273 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 2020 actual 2030 2040 2050 2060 Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2020) Exponential (2010-2020)
  • 35. Chapel Hill Projected Population Density Population per square mile, projecting with linear 2010-2020 Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 2,583 2,342 2,330 2,710 2,871 3,090 3,309 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 2030 Projected 2040 Projected
  • 36. Carrboro Projected Population Density Population per square mile, projecting with linear 2010-2020 Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,031 3,289 3,553 3,818 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 2030 Projected 2040 Projected
  • 37. Hillsborough Projected Population Density Population per square mile, projecting with linear 2010-2020 Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 1,398 1,201 1,189 1,142 1,704 2,334 2,964 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 2030 Projected 2040 Projected
  • 38. Chapel Hill Less Dense in 2040 Than Peer College Towns in 2020 Population per square mile, 2020 Source: Decennial Census; projections by Carolina Demography 4,544 4,392 4,339 4,112 3,408 3,391 3,309 3,289 2,871 Charlottesville (VA) Ann Arbor (MI) Burlington (VT) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Madison (WI) 2040 Chapel Hill Carrboro 2020 Chapel Hill
  • 40. Percent of Residents with a Bachelor Degree or Higher Percent of residents 25+ with a bachelor degree or higher, 2019 Source: American Community Survey 2015-2019 5-Year Estimates Cambridge, MA, 79% Chapel Hill, NC, 77% Carrboro, NC, 71% Orange County, NC, 60% Wake County, NC, 53% Hillsborough, NC, 52% Durham County, NC, 48% Chatham County, NC, 42% Alamance County, NC, 25% Cambridge, MA Chapel Hill, NC Boulder, CO Ann Arbor, MI Berkeley, CA Carrboro, NC Evanston, IL Sunnyvale, CA Amherst Center CDP, MA Santa Clara, CA Orange County, NC Corvallis, OR Bloomington, IN Fort Collins, CO Charlottesville, VA Burlington,VT Wake County, NC Hillsborough, NC Austin, TX Boston, MA Tallahassee, FL Durham County, NC Gainesville, FL Athens-Clarke Co unified, GA San Jose, CA Chatham County, NC Columbus, OH Alamance County, NC
  • 41. Percent of Residents with a Doctorate Degree Percent of residents 25+ with a Doctorate degree, 2019 Source: American Community Survey 2015-2019 5-Year Estimates Cambridge, MA, 14% Chapel Hill, NC, 14% Carrboro, NC, 10% Orange County, NC, 9% Durham County, NC, 5% Hillsborough, NC, 4% Chatham County, NC, 4% Wake County, NC, 3% Alamance County, NC, 1% Cambridge, MA Chapel Hill, NC Amherst Center CDP, MA Ann Arbor, MI Carrboro, NC Berkeley, CA Corvallis, OR Orange County, NC Boulder, CO Evanston, IL Bloomington, IN Charlottesville, VA Sunnyvale, CA Athens-Clarke Co,GA Gainesville, FL Durham County, NC Hillsborough, NC Tallahassee, FL Santa Clara , CA Fort Collins, CO Chatham County, NC Boston, MA Burlington,VT Wake County, NC Austin, TX San Jose, CA Columbus, OH Alamance County, NC
  • 43. Orange County Highest Per Capita Income in State Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 2019 Orange (1), $42,231 Wake (2), $40,982 Chatham (3), $40,967 Durham (6), $35,398 Alamance (37), $27,312 Hyde (100), $18,245 $- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 Orange County, NC Wake County, N C Chatham County, NC Mecklenburg County, NC Union County, N C Durham County, NC Moore County, NC Dare County, NC New Hanover County, NC Carteret County, NC Brunswick County, NC Iredell County, N C Buncombe County, NC Cabarrus County, NC Currituck County, NC Lincoln Cou nty, NC Henderson County, N C Davie County, NC Forsyth County, NC Guilford County, N C Polk County, NC Haywood County, NC Transylvania County, N C Craven County, NC Pender County, NC Pamlico County, N C Macon County, NC Clay County, N C Catawba County, NC Camden County, NC Johnston County, NC Perquimans County, N C Beaufort County, NC Nash County, NC Gaston County, NC Person County, NC Alamance Cou nty, NC Franklin County, NC Pitt County, NC Granville County, NC Watauga County, NC Alexander County, NC Stokes County, NC Chowan County, NC Davids on County, NC Madison Co unty, NC Stanly County, NC Gates County, N C Rowan County, NC Surry Cou nty, NC Jacks on County, NC Wayne County, NC Yadkin County, N C Wilkes County, NC Mitchell County, N C Cumberland County, NC Lee County, NC Ashe County, NC Wilson County, NC Pasquotank County, NC Montgomery County, NC Yancey County, NC Burke County, NC Onslow County, NC Randolph County, NC McDowell County, NC Rockingham County, NC Rutherford County, NC Cherokee County, NC Caswell County, N C Caldwell County, NC Lenoir County, NC Harnett County, NC Martin County, NC Bladen County, NC Warren County, NC Washington County, NC Alleghany County, NC Swain County, NC Van ce Coun ty, NC Bertie County, NC Sampson County, N C Columbus County, NC Cleveland County, NC Northampton County, N C Jones County, NC Halifax Co unty, NC Anson County, NC Richmond County, NC Avery County, N C Hoke County, NC Edgecombe County, NC Graham County, NC Duplin County, NC Hertford County, NC Tyrrell County, NC Greene County, NC Scotland Cou nty, NC Robeson County, NC Hyde County, NC
  • 44. Wake Leads, Orange 2nd in Regional Median Household Income in 2019 Household Income is the total annual earnings of all members of a household, whether they are a family or separate individuals living together (Distinct from Median Family Income and Per Capita Income) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) $74,314 $70,258 $65,541 $57,963 $84,377 $57,388 $65,712 Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Wake North Carolina United States
  • 45. Orange Leads, Chatham Tails Neighboring Counties in Median Household Income Growth 2010 to 2019 Percent change in median household income from 2010 to 2019, adjusted for inflation $2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 31.3% 26.9% 24.5% 24.0% 20.1% 19.3% 18.3% Orange Alamance Wake Durham North Carolina United States Chatham
  • 46. Orange Ranks 1st, Chatham 2nd in Average AGI Average AGI on All Returns Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $105,988 1 Chatham County $94,255 2 Wake County $92,888 3 Durham County $71,222 9 Alamance County $55,405 34 Source: IRS Average adjusted gross income (AGI) on tax returns, 2018
  • 47. Orange Ranks 1st, Chatham 10th in AGI for Itemized Returns Average AGI on Itemized Returns Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $285,973 1 Wake County $235,781 7 Chatham County $223,279 10 Durham County $171,996 28 Alamance County $163,332 35 Source: IRS Average adjusted gross income (AGI) on itemized tax returns, 2018
  • 48. Orange and Chatham Rank Near Bottom on Percent of AGI Contributed to Charitable Causes Percent of AGI Contributed Rank (of 100 Counties) Alamance County 7% 56 Durham County 6% 76 Wake County 5% 88 Chatham County 5% 89 Orange County 5% 95 Source: IRS Average adjusted gross income (AGI) percent contributed to charitable causes on tax returns, 2018
  • 49. Orange Top Ten in Dollars Given to Charity Average Itemized Contributions Reported Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $14,194 9 Wake County $12,897 16 Alamance County $12,043 26 Chatham County $12,037 27 Durham County $10,855 50 Source: IRS Average itemized contribution to charitable causes on tax returns, 2018
  • 50. Retail Sales and Sales Tax Revenue
  • 52. Annual Orange Retail Sales Down Just 1% in Pandemic 2020 Percent change in monthly retail sales (2019 vs. 2020) Source: NC Department of Revenue 10% 3% 2% -12% 4% 9% 6% -6% -20% -6% -1% 9% -1% Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Total
  • 53. Pitt County Retail Sales 2020 vs 2019 Percent change in Pitt County (East Carolina University) taxable retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020 Source: NC Department of Revenue 13% 3% 1% 10% 5% 6% 20% -2% -15% -5% 7% 12% 5% Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Total
  • 54. Watauga County Retail Sales 2020 vs 2019 Percent change in WataugaCounty (Appalachian State University) taxable retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020 Source: NC Department of Revenue 13% 8% 11% 8% 5% 3% 9% -18% -32% -9% 9% 14% 2% Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Total
  • 55. Chatham Retail Sales Increase 20% in 2020 vs 2019 Percent change in retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020 Source: NC Department of Revenue 21% 26% 48% 10% 13% 18% 27% 9% 16% 12% 20% 12% 20% Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Total
  • 56. Johnston County Taxable Retail Sales 2020 v 2019 Percent change in taxable retail sales, 2019 vs. 2020 Source: NC Department of Revenue 11% 13% 14% 14% 4% 19% 22% 14% -3% -8% 3% 1% 9% Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Total
  • 57. Orange County Retail Sales up 21% from 2020 to 2021 Percent change in retail sales, Jan-May 2020 vs. Jan-May2021 Source: NC Department of Revenue 19% 41% 30% 9% 9% 21% May April March February January Total
  • 58. Chatham Retail Sales Increase 20% from 2020 to 2021 Percent change in retail sales, Jan-May 2020 vs. Jan-May2021 Source: NC Department of Revenue 9% 16% 12% 20% 12% 20% May April March February January Total
  • 59. Orange County Retail Sales Decline in 2020; Rebound in 2021 Source: NC Department of Revenue $100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000 $160,000,000 $180,000,000 $200,000,000 $220,000,000 Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2021 2019
  • 60. Orange County’s 2021 Monthly Retail Sales Outpace Previous Years Taxable retail sales by month 2018-2021 Source: NC Department of Revenue $100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000 $160,000,000 $180,000,000 $200,000,000 $220,000,000 Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2021 2020 2019 2018
  • 61. Chatham County Retail Sales Continue to Increase in the Pandemic Source: NC Department of Revenue 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2021 2019
  • 62. Chatham County’s Retail Sales Increase Year Over Year Despite Pandemic Taxable retail sales totals by month 2018-2021 Source: NC Department of Revenue $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 $100,000,000 Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2021 2020 2019 2018
  • 63. Orange County Taxable Retail Sales Approach $2B Taxable retail sales ($millions), adjusted for inflation ($2020), FY06 – FY20; Source: NC Department of Revenue 1,163 1,181 1,165 1,116 1,170 1,168 1,190 1,303 1,552 1,609 1,687 1,819 1,816 1,943 1,956 $(250) $250 $750 $1,250 $1,750 $2,250
  • 64. Chatham County Taxable Sales up $73 million in FY20 Source: NC Department of Revenue $311 $375 $369 $346 $405 $417 $423 $436 $462 $520 $580 $612 $620 $660 $733 Taxable retail sales ($millions) adjusted for inflation $2020, FY06 – FY20
  • 65. 2020-21 Orange County Tax Disbursements County sales tax revenue distribution percentages and totals Source: NC Department of Revenue $35,452,374 60% $5,348,490 9.1% $15,500,240 26% $8,246 0.01% $1,985,276 3.4% $576,354 1.0% Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
  • 67. Local Business Credit Card Transaction Value per Month Rebounds Cohort of 40 diverse local businesses’ combined monthly credit card transaction values, Feb 2018 –July 2021 Source: Infintech; The Chamber’s 40-Business Index July 2018, $1,437,447 July 2019, $1,533,935 July 2020, $995,580 July 2021, $1,444,300 $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
  • 68. Small Business Credit Card Volume (swipes) Still 20% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels Cohort of 40 diverse local businesses’ combined monthly credit card transaction volume, Feb 2018 –July 2021 Source: Infintech; The Chamber’s 40-Business Index July 2018, 14,634 July 2019, 14,679 July 2020, 8,036 July 2021, 11,625 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
  • 70. Mayor Pam Hemminger Town of Chapel Hill
  • 72. Orange County on Pace for New High in Annual Housing Units Sold Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty 1,751 1,275 1,143 1,143 1,128 1,277 1,630 1,433 1,650 1,815 1,782 1,869 1,915 1,875 1,215 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021 Annual home sales, 2007-July2020
  • 73. Orange County on Pace for New High in Annual Housing Units Sold Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty 1,751 1,275 1,143 1,143 1,128 1,277 1,630 1,433 1,650 1,815 1,782 1,869 1,915 1,875 1,215 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021 Annual home sales, 2007-July2021
  • 74. 2020 and 2021 to be Record Years for Chatham Home Sales 1,008 797 699 782 858 1,037 1,320 1,318 1,297 1,412 1,323 1,297 1,315 1,454 927 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty Annual home sales, 2007-July2021
  • 75. Since 2010, Orange Adds Fewest New Homes in the Region New for-sale housing units built since 2010 2,307 3,861 9,130 44,804 Orange Chatham Durham Wake Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
  • 76. 4% of Orange County Total Housing Stock Has Been Built Since 2010, 13% in Chatham Percent of available housing units built since 2010 4.1% 13.4% 7.6% 12.0% Orange Chatham Durham Wake Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty
  • 77. Source: 5 Year American Community Survey, 2019 Median year structure built in Orange County Median year structure built in Chatham County 1986 1993
  • 79. In 2020, Orange Home Sales Price Rise to Nearly $328K Orange County median home sales price, 2011-2020 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $262,250 $265,000 $274,450 $267,000 $290,000 $300,000 $315,000 $315,000 $315,000 $327,750 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • 80. In 2020, Chatham Home Sales Price up to Nearly $440K Chatham County median home price, 2011-July2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $274,990 $277,700 $303,350 $317,373 $335,000 $352,140 $369,000 $388,000 $399,000 $439,775 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • 81. Five-Year Home Price Growth Rate Led By Durham Percent change in median home sales price, 2016 vs. 2020 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty 9% 18% 25% 37% 27% Orange (all) CHCCS District Chatham Durham Wake
  • 82. 37% of Orange; 20% of Chatham Homes Sold for Less Than $300,000 Percent of 2020 home sales by price Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty 8% 11% 13% 9% 11% 26% 16% 34% 22% 15% 18% 13% 39% 34% 28% 39% 21% 14% 25% 5% Chatham Co. (All) Orange Co. (All) CHCCS District Orange Co (not CHCCS) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
  • 83. 799 Homes in Orange; 271 in Chatham Sold for Less Than $300,000 in 2020 2020 number of homes sold by price Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty 112 237 129 108 159 562 162 400 316 334 180 154 566 742 279 463 311 311 251 60 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 Chatham Co.(All) Orange Co. (All) CHCCS District Orange Co. (not CHCCS) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
  • 85. Orange Home Sales Price Up $100,000 (30%) From 2019 Orange County median home sales price, 2011-July 2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $262,250 $265,000 $274,450 $267,000 $290,000 $300,000 $315,000 $315,000 $315,000 $327,750 $415,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 86. Chatham Home Sales Price Up $100,000 (25%) From 2019 Chatham County median home price, 2011-July2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $274,990 $277,700 $303,350 $317,373 $335,000 $352,140 $369,000 $388,000 $399,000 $439,775 $499,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 87. Chatham, Orange, and CHCCS District Home Prices Increase $100k since 2019 Median residential closing price, 2010-July2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $388,000 $499,000 $315,000 $415,000 $377,000 $489,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 Chatham Orange (all) CHCCS District
  • 88. CHCCS Leads in Price Per Square Foot ($218) and Orange Leads PPSF Increase (17.5%) Median price per square foot (PPSF), 2020 vs. Jan-July 2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $171 $188 $167 $154 $152 $201 $218 $190 $179 $174 Orange CHCCS District Chatham Durham Wake 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 89. Chatham Leads at $499,000 Followed by CHCCS at $489,000. Median Durham Closing $329,000 Median Closing Price 2020 vs. Jan-July 2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty $327,750 $411,000 $439,775 $290,000 $337,539 $415,000 $489,000 $499,000 $329,110 $380,000 Orange CHCCS District Chatham Durham Wake 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 90. 2020 to 2021 Home Price Growth Rate Led By Orange Change in median home sale price, 2020 vs. Jan-July 2021 Source: Triangle MLS and Tri Local Realty 27% 19% 13% 13% 13% Orange (all) CHCCS District Chatham Durham Wake
  • 92. Share of renter-occupied households 2015-2019 Over Half of Chapel Hill & Carrboro Residents Rent 37% 24% 35% 46% 36% 35% 50% 57% 35% Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North Carolina Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
  • 93. Chapel Hill Leads with a Median Rent of $1,191 Median rent 2015-2019 Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey $1,191 $1,150 $1,093 $1,078 $1,067 $1,025 $907 $845 $813 Chapel Hill Wake Orange Carrboro Durham Hillsborough North Carolina Chatham Alamance
  • 94. Growth in Median Rent, 2014 to 2019 Percent change in median rent (2010-2014)to (2015-2019) Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey 10% 0% 2% 12% 14% 6% 12% 14% 16% Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North Carolina Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
  • 95. Percent of Cost-Burdened Households in Orange Exceeds 50% Percent of households ‘cost-burdened’ spending greater than 30% of household income on rent, 2015-2019 Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey 51% 45% 49% 49% 43% 47% 57% 55% 52% Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North Carolina Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
  • 96. 61% 32% 26% 57% 67% 40% 72% 59% 54% Orange Chatham Alamance Durham County Wake North Carolina Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough 2015-2019 Over Half of Renters in Orange, Durham, and Wake Pay More than $1,000 Month in Rent Share of renters paying more than $1,000 in rent, 2015-2019 Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
  • 98. 2021 Local and State Fair Market Rent North Carolina Durham-Chapel Hill HMFA (Orange, Durham, Chatham, & Person Counties) Raleigh MSA Alamance County Zero Bedroom $786 $972 $1,013 $636 One Bedroom $811 $974 $1,053 $682 Two Bedroom $960 $1,134 $1,200 $885 Three Bedroom $1,269 $1,493 $1,509 $1,126 Four Bedroom $1,556 $1,715 $1,950 $1,201 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach Report 2021
  • 99. Orange County 2021 Housing Wage is $18.73 for a 1-Bedroom Apartment (was $17.35 in 2020) Housing wage: hourly wages needed to afford Fair Market Rent, 2021 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach Report 2021 North Carolina Durham-Chapel Hill HMFA (Orange, Durham, Chatham, & Person Counties) Raleigh MSA Alamance County Zero Bedroom $15.12 $18.69 $19.48 $12.23 One Bedroom $15.60 $18.73 $20.25 $13.12 Two Bedroom $18.46 $21.81 $23.08 $17.02 Three Bedroom $24.41 $28.71 $29.02 $21.65 Four Bedroom $29.92 $32.98 $37.50 $23.10
  • 100. $45,360 Income Needed to Afford 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent (was $42,200 in 2020) Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach Report 2021 Annual salary needed to afford Fair Market Rent, 2021 North Carolina Durham-Chapel Hill HMFA (Orange, Durham, Chatham, & Person Counties) Raleigh MSA Alamance County Zero Bedroom $31,453 $38,880 $40,520 $25,440 One Bedroom $32,439 $38,960 $42,120 $27,280 Two Bedroom $38,400 $45,360 $48,000 $35,400 Three Bedroom $50,774 $59,720 $60,360 $45,040 Four Bedroom $62,237 $68,600 $78,000 $48,040
  • 102. Orange County Top 25 Employers Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce 1. UNC Chapel Hill 2. UNC Health Care System 3. NC Health (UNC Health) 4. Chapel Hill-CarrboroCity Schools 5. Local Government (Orange County Government) 6. Orange County Schools 7. Town Of Chapel Hill 8. Wal-MartAssociates 9. Eurosport 10. Harris Teeter 11. Food Lion 12. United Parcel Service 13. Wellspring Grocery (Whole Foods) 14. AKG Of America 15. PHE Inc 16. Summit Design & Engineering Service 17. Carol Woods Retirement Community 18. Performance Automall 19. Weaver Street Market 20. Westrock Services LLC 21. Noom Inc. 22. U S Postal Service 23. Residential Services 24. Piedmont Health Services 25. Strata Solar As listed by the NC Dept of Commerce in 2019. Some are no longer located in Orange County. Chamber staff has added additional descriptions (in parentheses)
  • 103. Chatham County Top 25 Employers Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce 1. Chatham County Schools 2. Chatham County Government 3. Mountaire Farms Of NC 4. Carolina Meadows 5. Galloway Ridge 6. Wal-MartAssociates 7. NC Health (UNC Health) 8. Flakeboard America Limited 9. Harris Teeter 10. Piedmont Health Services 11. Food Lion 12. Aegis Home Care 13. Lowes Home Centers 14. Fitch Creations (Fearrington) 15. Brookwood Farms 16. The Laurels Of Chatham 17. Scotts & Associates 18. Mas Acme Usa 19. Southern Veneer Specialty Products 20. Sunrise Home Care 21. Packers Sanitation Services 22. Town & Country HardwareStores 23. Palletone Of North Carolina 24. Governors Club 25. Genesis Administrative Services LLC As listed by the NC Dept of Commerce in 2019. Some are no longer locatedin Orange County. Chamber staff has added additionaldescriptions(in parentheses)
  • 104. Top 10 Orange County Industries by Number of Enterprises Organized by NAICS code, 2020 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce 160 175 203 244 328 340 342 420 571 928 Information Educational Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Construction Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Other Services (except Public Administration) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
  • 105. Top 10 Orange County Industries by Average Employment Organized by NAICS code, 2020 1,083 1,179 1,810 1,982 2,615 3,755 4,666 6,353 18,805 21,008 Information Finance and Insurance Construction Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Services Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce
  • 106. Top 10 Chatham County Industries by Number of Enterprises Organized by NAICS code,2020 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce 52 74 80 80 102 130 151 180 221 248 Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) Construction Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
  • 107. Top 10 Chatham County Industries by Average Employment Organized by NAICS code, 2020 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) via NC Department of Commerce 417 452 532 537 656 1,041 1,113 1,373 1,721 2,396 Wholesale Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Transportation and Warehousing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Public Administration Construction Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance
  • 108. Orange County Employer Firms (Firms with Employees)
  • 109. Estimated Number of Orange County Employer Firms Total = 2,885 Firms Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey Carrboro, 391 (14%) Chapel Hill, 1,502 (52%) Hillsborough, 321 (11%) Rest of Orange, 671 (23%)
  • 110. Estimated Minority-Owned Employer Firms Estimatednumber of minority-owned firms with employees by county Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey 349 155 1,051 262 318 Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Johnston
  • 111. 33% of Carrboro Firms are Women-Owned Estimatedwomen-owned employer firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total payroll Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey 33% 22% 22% 18% 20% 17% 21% 20% 23% 4% 6% 6% 2% 2% 4% 4% 20% 8% 8% 7% 3% 3% 7% 6% Carrboro Chapel Hill Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina % of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll
  • 112. Minority-Owned Employers Make Up 11-18% of All Firms Estimatedminority-owned employer firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total payroll Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey 11% 12% 12% 18% 11% 11% 15% 12% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% Chapel Hill Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Johnston County Wake County North Carolina % of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll
  • 113. Hispanic-Owned Employers Less Than 4% of All Firms EstimatedHispanic-owned firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total payroll Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey 2.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% Chapel Hill Orange County Durham County Johnston County Wake County North Carolina % of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll Note: Chatham County values for this arenot reported due to data suppression due to quality control. This is likely becauseof a very small sample size.
  • 114. Black-Owned Employers Less Than 7% of All Firms EstimatedBlack-owned employer firms as percent of all firms, percent of total sales, and percent of total payroll Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey 1.9% 6.7% 2.5% 2.2% 3.8% 3.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% Chapel Hill Durham County Alamance County Johnston County Wake County North Carolina % of All Firms % of Total Sales % of Total Payroll Note: Orange& Chatham County values for this are not reported due to data suppression dueto quality control. This is likely because of a very smallsample size.
  • 115. Durham (37%) Leads Counties and Hillsborough (21%) Leads Cities in Minority-Owned Businesses Estimatedminority-owned firms as percent of all firms Source: Census Bureau, 2017 Business Survey 10% 12% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 20% 21% 21% 23% 26% 29% 37% Bloomington (IN) Chatham County (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Orange County (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Carrboro (NC) Johnston County (NC) Alamance County (NC) Hillsborough (NC) North Carolina Wake County (NC) United States Durham County (NC)
  • 117. Unlike Great Recession, Covid Unemployment Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels in 12 Months Monthly unemployment rate (unadjusted), 1/2008 – 6/2021 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Chapel Hill Chatham County North Carolina Orange County Durham County Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) via NC Department of Commerce Beginning of Pandemic End of Great Recession
  • 118. Monthly Unemployment Peaks in May 2020. Up Slightly in June From April 2021 Low Monthly unemployment rate unadjusted), 1/2019-6/2021 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County Durham County Peak in May 2020 Chapel Hill:8.6% Orange: 9.0% Chatham: 9.1% Durham: 11.2% June 2021 Chapel Hill:4.0% Orange: 3.7% Chatham: 3.9% Durham: 4.3% Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) via NC Department of Commerce
  • 119. Monthly Unemployed Individuals Half of May Peak Monthly unemployed individuals, 1/2019 – 6/2021 2,429 1,279 2,985 1,414 6,516 2,952 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) via NC Department of Commerce May 2020
  • 121. Orange County Has 4,000 Open Positions, 1,000 in Healthcare Including 257 Registered Nurses Orange County Jobs Snapshot, September 16, 2021 Source: Burning Glass Technologies
  • 122. Orange County September 2021 Job Openings Orange County Top 11 employers with open positions, September 16, 2021 Source: Burning Glass Technologies
  • 123. Durham County Job Openings September 2021 Durham County Top 11 employers with open positions, September 16, 2021 Source: Burning Glass Technologies
  • 124. Orange and Chatham County Industry Sectors Hiring Orange + Chatham County Top 12 industry sectors with open positions, September 16, 2021 Source: Burning Glass Technologies
  • 125. High-Demand Jobs, September 2021 Orange County Jobs in High Demand Source: Burning Glass Technologies Orange + Durham + Chatham Jobs in High Demand
  • 128. Orange County Average Daily Occupancy Rebounds Average daily hotel occupancy rate, 2012 through Jan-Jul 2021 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau 65% 65% 70% 71% 70% 67% 67% 67% 40% 58% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 129. Orange County Hotel Occupancy Returns to Pre- Pandemic Levels in July 2021 Average daily hotel occupancy rate, by month, 2019-2021 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021
  • 130. Orange County Average Daily Rate Drops 20% County average daily hotel room rate, 2012-2021 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau $104 $106 $114 $121 $124 $126 $126 $130 $102 $103 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 131. Orange County Average Daily Rate in July 2021 tops July 2019 County average daily hotel room rate by month, 2019-2021 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau $149.15 $83.44 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021
  • 132. Orange County RevPAR Still Down 23% from 2019 County average revenue per available room (RevPAR), 2012-2021 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau $68 $70 $79 $86 $87 $84 $85 $87 $41 $60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-July 2021
  • 133. Orange County Hotel Average Revenue per Room County average revenue per available room (RevPAR)by month, 2019-2020 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021
  • 135. Orange County Short Term Rentals Continue to Demand a Higher Room Rate and Earn a Higher Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) Jan-August, 2019-2021 Source: Chapel Hill-Orange County Visitors Bureau $112.19 $129.08 $153.81 $66.71 $74.06 $99.58 2019 2020 2021 Average Daily Rate RevPAR
  • 136. Short Term Rental Occupancy Rates Went Up as Supply Decreased During the Pandemic Total annual available room nights in Orange County by year, rental occupancy status, and occupancy rate Jan-Aug, 2019-2021 Source: Chapel Hill-Orange County Visitors Bureau 59.5% 44,195 57.4% 34,848 64.7% 30,795 74,322 60,734 47,567 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 2019 2020 2021 Occupancy and Occupied Available
  • 138. Percent of People in Poverty Declines Across Region from 2010 and 2015 to 2019 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Orange County 10% 14% 17% 14% 13% Chatham County 9% 11% 14% 12% 9% Durham County 11% 14% 18% 17% 14% Alamance County 9% 12% 18% 19% 15% Wake County 7% 10% 12% 11% 8% North Carolina 12% 15% 17% 16% 14% United States 11% 13% 15% 15% 12% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
  • 139. Chatham and Wake Have Lowest Local Poverty Rate Percent of people (all ages) in poverty, 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 13% 9% 14% 15% 8% 14% 12% Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States
  • 140. Wake Has Lowest Local Child Poverty Rate Percent of children (Under 18) in poverty, 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 13% 12% 21% 22% 9% 19% 17% Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States
  • 141. Percent of Children in Poverty Down from Peak; Orange Now Exceeds Chatham Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 17% 13% 22% 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Orange County Chatham County Percent of children (under 18) in poverty by county, 2000 to 2019
  • 143. Orange County FNS Cases & Participants Approaching Post-Great Recession Peak After Start of COVID-19 Number of cases (families) and participants (individuals) receiving Orange County Food and Nutrition Services (formerly Food Stamps) in January each year 2007 through 2021 Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services Jan 2021, 5,757 Jan 2014, 6,279 Jan 2007, 2,925 Jan 2021, 11,193 Jan 2012, 11,779 Jan 2007, 6,111 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 Jan-21 Jan-20 Jan-19 Jan-18 Jan-17 Jan-16 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Cases Participants
  • 144. Jan 2021, 2,637 Jan 2012, 3,079 Jan 2007, 1,345 Jan 2021, 5,350 Jan 2012, 6,632 Jan 2007, 2,948 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Cases Participants Chatham County FNS Cases & Participants Rise Sharply After Start of COVID-19 Number of cases (families) and participants (individuals) receiving Chatham County Food and Nutrition Services (formerly Food Stamps) in January each year 2007 through 2021 Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services
  • 145. Food Insecurity Rate Declines Across the Region Percentage of population experiencing Food Insecurity 2013 vs. 2019 - (USDA: Food Insecurity is a lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life) Source: Feeding America 15.4% 12.0% 16.7% 18.2% 14.4% 18.3% 11.6% 11.7% 13.7% 12.1% 10.1% 13.5% Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North Carolina 2013 2019
  • 146. Number of Food Insecure Individuals Declines in Orange and Neighboring Counties; Chatham Increases Change in the number of food insecure individuals, 2013-2019(USDA: Food Insecurity is a lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life) Source: Feeding America -4,140 600 -3,090 -12,530 -25,890 Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
  • 147. Orange, Durham, and Wake see 19%+ Declines in Percent of People Food Insecure, 2013-2019 Change in the percent of food insecure individuals, 2013-2019(USDA:Food Insecurity is a lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, health life) Source: Feeding America -19.8% 7.7% -12.1% -24.9% -19.4% -21.3% Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake North Carolina
  • 150. Asheville and Chapel Hill-Carrboro Lead the State in Per Pupil Expenditure Total per pupil expenditure by LEA for the school year SY2020 (2019-20) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction $9,485 $9,615 $10,747 $11,684 $11,497 $12,956 $13,522 Alamance-Burlington Schools Wake County Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools Asheville City Schools
  • 151. CHCCS Leads in Local Per Pupil Expenditure Total per pupil expenditure by LEA for the school year SY2020 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction $2,031 $2,859 $3,456 $3,833 $4,446 $5,956 $6,332 Alamance-Burlington Schools Wake County Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Asheville City Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
  • 153. Reading on Grade Level (Grade 3) Drops Sharply in Pandemic. Down 11 Pts in CHCCS and 13 Pts in OCS Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 75% 74% 63% 63% 52% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Orange County Schools Percent of students Grade Level Proficient (level 3+) in End-of-Grade (EOG) Reading Grade 3, SY2014- SY2021. *No EOG tests were taken in 2020
  • 154. CHCCS & Wake Outperform Neighbors on 3rd Grade Reading End of Grade (EOG), SY2021 Percent of students “College and Career Ready” (level 4 or 5) and “Grade Level Proficient” (level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 45% 39% 63% 52% 37% 35% 60% 34% 31% 53% 39% 27% 24% 49% NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS (Orange) Chatham Alamance Durham Wake % Grade Level Proficient % College and Career Ready
  • 155. Fewer Than 17% of Black and Hispanic Students Reading on Grade Level in OCS, Less than 34% in CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficiency (level 3+) by race, SY2021 71% 30% 34% 78% NA 17% 15% 57% NA 29% 32% 70% Asian Black Hispanic White CHCCS Orange Chatham Source: NC Department of Public Instruction Note: Orange& Chatham County values for Asian students are not reported due to data suppression dueto the small number of students in these districts.
  • 156. 3rd Grade Reading CHCCS: Black Students Drop 27 Points, Hispanic Drop 8 Points, All Drop 11 Points SY2019 to SY2021 CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficiency (level 3+) by race, SY2014 to SY2021. No EOG Tests were taken in 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 All Asian Black Hispanic White Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 157. White/Hispanic Performance Gap Narrows in CHCCS and OCS between SY2019 and SY2021 The number of percentage points between the percent of White students scoring “Grade Level Proficient” (level 3) on Grade 3 Reading EOG, and Hispanic student performance on same EOG. No tests taken in 2020 48 42 54 46 50 46 44 36 34 37 45 38 44 42 32 33 36 36 28 34 39 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CHCCS OCS Chatham Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 158. White/Black Performance Gap Widens from SY2019 to SY2021 in Orange, Chatham, and Chapel Hill-Carrboro The number of percentage points between the percent of White students scoring “Grade Level Proficient” (level 3) on the Grade 3 Reading EOG, and Black student performance on same EOG. No tests taken in 2020. 58 37 45 34 47 30 48 27 30 27 39 22 33 40 38 29 33 43 36 32 41 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CHCCS OCS Chatham Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 160. CHCCS and Wake Exceed Peers in Grade 8 Math End of Grade (EOG) SY2021 Percent of students ‘College and Career Ready” (level 4 or 5) and “Grade Level Proficient” (level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 33% 28% 48% 27% 23% 24% 44% 17% 11% 29% 10% 12% 10% 24% NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS (Orange) Chatham Alamance Durham Wake % Grade Level Proficient % College and Career Ready
  • 161. End of Grade Math, Grade 8, Performance Declines Sharply in CHCCS and Orange County Schools Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 69% 59% 29% 36% 35% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Orange County Schools Percent of students College and Career Ready (level 4 or 5) in End-of-Grade (EOG) Math Grade 8, SY2014 to SY2021. No EOG Tests were taken in 2020
  • 162. Covid Interrupts Tremendous OCS Progress for 8th Grade Science Performance for Black Students Orange County Schools Percentage of Black students “College and Career Ready” (level 4 or 5) on Grade 8 Science, EOG SY2014-SY2021 42% 67% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 164. CHCCS Leads Peers in Students with UNC System Eligible ACT Scores. 82% Earn Score of 17+ % of Students earning an UNC system-eligibleACT composite score (17+), SY2021 55% 62% 82% 65% 48% 58% 70% NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS (Orange) Chatham Alamance Durham Wake Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 165. Only 37% of CHCCS’ and 42% of OCS’ Economically Disadvantaged Students Earn UNC System Eligible ACTs % of Economically DisadvantagedStudents earning an UNC system-eligible ACT composite score (17+), 2020-21 55% 62% 82% 65% 48% 58% 70% 34% 42% 37% 38% 31% 38% 38% NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS (Orange) Chatham Alamance Durham Wake All Students Economically Disadvantaged Students Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 166. Large Disparities Exist In Student ACT Performance Percent of students earning an UNC system-eligible ACT composite score (17+) by race, SY2021 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 30% 27% 37% 36% 25% 43% 39% 40% 38% 55% 39% 38% 48% 46% 69% 77% 94% 80% 62% 90% 84% NC OCS (Orange) CHCCS (Orange) Chatham Alamance Durham Wake Black Hispanic White Note: Orange& Chatham County values for Asian students are not reported due to data suppression dueto the small number of students in these districts.
  • 167. AP Participation Highest in Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Percent of high school students enrolled in AP courses, 2019-20 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 17% 19% 44% 18% 17% 21% 32% 17% 19% 46% 17% 13% 19% 33% North Carolina OCS CHCCS Chatham Alamance Durham Wake 2019 2020
  • 169. Student Headcount (ADM) Declines in 2020-21 School Year Student increase/decrease in Month 2 Average Daily Members (ADM) SY2021 vs. SY2020 -351 (3.9%) -334 (4.5%) -540 (4.4%) -874 (4.4%) Chatham OCS CHCCS Orange County (total) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 170. Fewer Students Enrolled in Orange (-4.5%) and CHCCS (-4.4%) Schools in SY2021 Student increase/decrease in Month 2 Average Daily Members (ADM) SY2021 vs. SY2020 -423 -120 3 -540, (-4.4%) -179 -104 -51 -334, (-4.5%) Elementary School Middle School High School Total Enrollment Change Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools Orange County Schools Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
  • 171. CHCCS Enrollments Down Most for Kindergarten, Grade 3 Percent increase/decrease in Month 2 Average Daily Membership by grade, SY2021 vs. SY2020 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction -16.8% -6.6% -3.3% -15.9% -2.5% -2.7% -8.4% -2.8% -0.6% 2.5% -1.8% -4.1% 4.1% K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  • 172. Home School Enrollments Grew Fastest in Orange County vs Pre-pandemic SY2019 Percent change in home school enrollments by county, SY2021 vs. SY2019 Source: NC Department of Administration 15% (344 students) 26% (3,325 students) 27% (37,863 students) 27% (631 students) 36% (363 students) 46% (565 students) Alamance Wake North Carolina Durham Chatham Orange
  • 173. Private School Enrollments Declined in Orange; Grew Fastest in Alamance vs. Pre-Pandemic SY2019 Percent change in private school enrollments, SY2021 vs SY2019 Source: NC Department of Administration 5.8% (95 students) 4.8% (4,941 students) 4.4% (818 students) 1.5% (73 students) 0.5% (1 student) -2.2% (24 students) Alamance North Carolina Wake Durham Chatham Orange
  • 175. Dr. Nyah Hamlett Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
  • 178. Orange Ranks First in Health Behaviors & Clinical Care, 2021 Orange Chatham Durham Who is #1 Length of Life 2 9 7 Wake Quality of Life 3 12 8 Dare Health Behaviors 1 3 4 Orange Clinical Care 1 11 6 Orange Social and Economic Factors 2 16 26 Wake Physical Environment 6 86 37 Onslow Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings County rank, out of the 100 counties in North Carolina
  • 179. Adult Smoking RWJF: Percentage of adults who are current smokers Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings 18% 15% 17% 15% 21% 14% 13% 19% 21% 18% 12% 16% Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF
  • 180. Access to Exercise Opportunities RWJF: Percentage of population with adequate access to locations for physical activity Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF 74% 84% 63% 90% 80% 90% 96% 82% 87% 92% 97% 89%
  • 181. Violent Crime per 100,000 Residents RWJF: Number of violent crime offenses per 100,000population Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF 351 160 165 666 382 115 242 405 307 436 238 353
  • 182. Uninsured Children RWJF: Percentage of children under age 19 without health insurance Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF 5% 5% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 7% 8% 1% 4% 2%
  • 183. Life Expectancy RWJF: Average number of years a person can expect to live Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF 78.1 82.3 81.1 80.3 77.3 81.8 82.8 80.5 79.0 79.3 83.0 78.6
  • 184. Drug Overdose Deaths RWJF: Number of drug poisoning deaths per 100,000 population Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings Note: Monroe, INand Clarke, GA arecomparisons based on city visits done by Chamber; the other counties outside of NC are among the recommended comparison places fromRWJF 22.3 12.1 15.5 15.3 24.1 12.4 13.0 17.9 11.8 34.9 19.4 15.2
  • 185. Orange County Records Lowest Teenage Birth Rate, One Fifth the NC Rate RWJF: Number of births per 1,000 female population ages 15-19 Source: 2021 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Rankings 22 4 15 21 20 12 North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
  • 187. Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates (2020) Source: Durham Tech 100% 96% 96% 100% 92% Practical Nursing Registered Nursing EMT EMT-P Esthetician
  • 188. In-Person Credit Classes Offered at Durham Tech Orange County Campus Greatly Impacted by Covid Number of in-person classes offered Source: Durham Tech 143 144 128 133 41 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
  • 189. Durham Tech Orange County Campus In-Person Credit Class Enrollment Greatly Impacted by Covid-19 Available in-person seats used Source: Durham Tech 1,418 2,582 2,789 2,459 2,401 2,417 2,344 2,153 2,193 252 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
  • 190. 60% of Durham Tech Students Who Graduated from Chapel Hill and Orange County Schools Received Financial Aid Pell Grants and other forms of financial aid, 2020-2021 Source: Durham Tech 60%
  • 191. Durham Tech (Orange County Campus) Career and College Promise (CCP) & Orange County Promise (OCP) Awards Source: Durham Tech 59 108 143 151 46 92 178 189 232 226 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 CCP students taking classes OCP students taking classes
  • 192. Age of Orange County Residents (612) in Credit Classes Durham Tech Orange County Campus (2019- 2020) Source: Durham Tech 17 and under 37% 18-24 39% 25-44 21% 45-64 3%
  • 194. UNC-Chapel Hill Student and Employee Populations
  • 195. UNC-Chapel Hill Student Population Grows ~200 Students Per Year Over 30 Years Total student population (full- and part-time), 1991-2020 Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research 29,877 23,852 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
  • 196. Resident Student Housing, 8,015 (27%) Married Student Housing, 540 (2%) Off-Campus Housing, 19,263 (64%) Fraternity and Sorority Housing, 834 (3%) University-Affiliated(Granville Towers), 1,225 (4%) 2019 UNC-Chapel Hill Student Enrollment by Housing Type 29,877 Students Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research and Analysis
  • 197. UNC-Chapel Hill Employment Surpasses 13,000 UNC-CH employment by employment classification, 1991-2019 Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 SHRA Employees (Formerly SPA Employees) EHRA Employees (Formerly Faculty and EPA Employees) Total: 13,029
  • 198. Living in Orange County 45% Living Outside of Orange County 55% 45% of UNC-Chapel Hill Employees Live in Orange County, 2018 Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research and Analysis
  • 199. 135 231 260 50 200 -42 -7 6 9 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Other Counties Chatham Person Lee Guilford Largest Growth in UNC-Chapel Hill Employee Residence is Wake County Change in number of UNC employees by county of residence, 2015-2019. total of 842 additional employees Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research and Analysis
  • 200. UNC-Chapel Hill Research Funding Approaches $1 Billion Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research $941 Million $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 $700,000,000 $800,000,000 $900,000,000 $1,000,000,000 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1980
  • 201. UNC-Chapel Hill’s State Appropriation Below 2009 Levels Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research $518 Million $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991
  • 202. UNC-Chapel Hill Revenues Rise Rapidly, While State Appropriations Flat Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research $3.4 Billion $518 Million $0 $500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $3,500,000,000 $4,000,000,000 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 Total Revenues State Appropriations
  • 203. Value of UNC-Chapel Hill’s Endowment, 1991-2019 In billions Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research $3.31 Billion $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991
  • 211. 2021 North Carolina Municipal Tax Rates 2020-21 city and town property tax rates Source: NC Department of Revenue Huntersville, 0.240 Cary, 0.350 Raleigh, 0.355 Apex, 0.380 Durham, 0.532 Chapel Hill, 0.544 Carrboro, 0.599 Hillsborough, 0.620 Salisbury, 0.720 Huntersville Charlotte Cary Raleigh Morrisville Apex Asheville Concord Greenville Wilmington Fayetteville Gastonia Durham Chapel Hill Wilson Hickory Burlington Carrboro Monroe Hillsborough Kannapolis Winston-Salem Jacksonville High Point Goldsboro Greensboro Rocky Mount Salisbury
  • 212. Local Jurisdictions Have Highest Combined Property Tax Rate 2020-21 combined all jurisdictions property tax rates (municipal + county + school tax rates) Source: NC Department of Revenue Hickory, .5875 Cary, .9500 Raleigh, .9552 Apex, .9800 Durham, 1.2439 Hillsborough, 1.4879 Chapel Hill, 1.6137 Carrboro, 1.6691 Hickory Huntersville Cary Raleigh Asheville Morrisville Charlotte Apex Wilmington Greenville Concord Durham Burlington Fayetteville Wilson Goldsboro Jacksonville Monroe Gastonia Rocky Mount Kannapolis Salisbury High Point Winston-Salem Greensboro Hillsborough Chapel Hill Carrboro
  • 213. Chapel Hill Has Highest Average Residential Property Tax Bill Combined local property tax rates (2020-21)assessedon local median home value, May 2020 Hickory, $1,247 Raleigh, $3,349 Durham, $3,880 Cary, $4,327 Apex, $4,370 Hillsborough, $5,243 Carrboro, $5,787 Chapel Hill, $7,549 Hickory Rocky Mount Wilson Greenville Burlington Fayetteville Goldsboro Jacksonville High Point Winston-Salem Salisbury Greensboro Kannapolis Gastonia Charlotte Wilmington Raleigh Huntersville Asheville Monroe Concord Morrisville Durham Cary Apex Hillsborough Carrboro Chapel Hill Source: NC Department of Revenue; Zillow
  • 215. Chapel Hill Commercial Value increases by $1 Billion, Apartments by Almost $700 Million Since 2017 Chapel Hill assessedvalue by category (in $millions), 2017-2021 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor $1,443 $1,461 $1,675 $1,719 $2,467 $793 $990 $1,017 $1,075 $1,473 $5,118 $5,333 $5,363 $7,059 $7,822 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Commercial Apartments Residential
  • 216. From 2017 to 2021, Assessed Value of Commercial Property in Chapel Hill Grows 71% Chapel Hill change in assessedvalue (in $millions) from 2017 to 2021 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor $1,024 (71%) $679 (86%) $2,704 (53%) Commercial Apartments Residential
  • 217. Chapel Hill Now 67% Residential, 13% Apartments, and 21% Commercial in 2021 Chapel Hill assessedvalue percentages by type 2017-2021 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor 20% 19% 21% 17% 21% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13% 70% 69% 67% 72% 67% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Commercial Apartments Residential
  • 218. Orange County Assessed Value Grows to $24 Billion Orange County assessedvalue (in $millions) change over time. *accurate 2018 and 2019 were not available at time of presentation Source: Orange County Tax Assessor $2,511 $2,933 $4,069 $1,226 $1,541 $2,117 $13,494 $16,203 $18,022 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Commercial Apartments Residential
  • 219. Orange County Commercial Value Increases 62%, Nearly Twice as Fast at Residential Percent Growth Change in Orange County assessedvalue (in $millions) from 2017 to 2021 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor $1,559 (62%) $891 (73%) $4,528 (34%) Commercial Apartments Residential
  • 220. Orange County Now 74% Residential; Commercial Grows to 17% Orange County assessedvalue percentages by type 2017-2021 *2018 & 2019 not available at time of presentation Source: Orange County Tax Assessor 15% 14% 17% 7% 7% 9% 78% 78% 74% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Commercial Apartments Residential
  • 221. 2021 Carrboro Commercial Building Value (in millions) Total: $284,050,200 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor Apartments, $167 Hotel, $19 Industrial, $11 Office, $52 Restaurant, $4 Retail, $31
  • 222. 2021 Hillsborough Commercial Building Value (in millions) Total: $295,854,100 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor Apartments, $84 Hotel, $9 Industrial, $63 Office, $91 Restaurant, $6 Retail, $43
  • 223. Mebane (Orange County) Commercial Building Value (in millions) Total: $160,590,400 Source: Orange County Tax Assessor Apartments, $16 Hotel, $0 Industrial, $121 Office, $19 Restaurant, $3 Retail, $2
  • 224. Before Commuting Data… a Word From RTP
  • 227. Worker Inflow, Outflow, and Commuting
  • 228. Orange County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 48,116 drive in, 38,088 drive out, and 19,965 live and work in Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 229. Where do Orange County’s 68,081 Workers Live? Orange County workers by county of residence, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 29%, 19,965 19%, 13,231 15%, 10,177 10%, 6,900 7%, 4,607 2%, 1,364 1%, 891 1%, 862 1%, 811 1%, 588 13%, 8,685 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Chatham Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Person Forsyth All Other Locations
  • 230. 3,972 More Orange County Workers Commuting from Wake County than in 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) -1,875 1,792 3,972 1,226 565 359 450 40 236 112 2,032 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Chatham Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Person Forsyth All Other Locations Change in number of Orange County workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018
  • 231. Where do Orange County’s 59,053 Working Residents Go to Work? Location of primary job for Orange County residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 34%, 19,965 25%, 14,734 16%, 9,133 4%, 2,526 3%, 1,841 3%, 1,730 1%, 771 1%, 528 1%, 308 .5%, 290 11%, 6,227 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Guilford Mecklenburg Chatham Forsyth Cumberland New Hanover All Other Locations
  • 232. Where Orange County Residents Work is Changing, with 2,051 More Commuting to Wake County for Work Change in location of Orange County residents’ primary job, 2008-2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) -1,875 270 2,051 349 72 149 34 -44 -70 91 909 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Guilford Mecklenburg Chatham Forsyth Cumberland New Hanover All Other Locations
  • 233. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 43,336 drive in, 14,558 drive out, and 6,448 live and work in Chapel Hill Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 234. Chapel Hill workers by county of residence, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 28%, 16,245 22%, 9,687 18%, 5,448 8%, 3,600 7%, 3,009 2%, 638 1%, 319 1%, 691 1%, 370 1%, 265 11%, 4,358 Orange Durham Wake Chatham Alamance Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Forsyth Person All Other Locations Where do Chapel Hill’s 49,784 Workers Live?
  • 235. 2,260 Fewer Chapel Hill Workers From Orange County Than in 2008 Change in number of Chapel Hill workers’ county of residence from 2008-2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) -2,260 1,128 3,298 358 734 177 378 -75 4 93 1,319 Orange Durham Wake Chatham Alamance Guilford Johnston Mecklenburg Forsyth Person All Other Locations
  • 236. Where do Chapel Hill’s 21,006 Working Residents Go To Work? Location of primary job for Chapel Hill residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 35%, 7,329 25%, 5,178 16%, 3,449 4%, 755 3%, 649 2%, 411 1%, 291 1%, 238 1%, 129 1%, 120 12%, 2,457 Orange Durham Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Alamance Chatham Forsyth Cumberland New Hanover All Other Locations
  • 237. Where Chapel Hill Residents Work is Changing, with More Working in Wake over the Decade Change in location of Chapel Hill residents’ primary job, 2008-2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) -690 140 868 87 -6 63 18 -12 -32 34 363 Orange Durham Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Alamance Chatham Forsyth Cumberland New Hanover All Other Locations
  • 238. Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 3,951 drive in, 8,577 drive out, and 597 live and work in Carrboro Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 239. Where do Carrboro’s 9,174 Working Residents Go To Work? Location of primary job for Carrboro residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 44%, 4,052 20%, 1,853 15%, 1,370 3%, 238 3%, 233 2%, 215 2%, 203 1%, 79 .5%, 42 .4%, 41 9%, 848 Orange Durham Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Alamance Chatham Forsyth Lee Cumberland All Other Locations
  • 240. Where Carrboro Residents Work is Changing, with 746 More Working in Wake & Durham Than in 2008 Change in location of Carrboro residents’ primary job, 2008-2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 44 392 354 26 25 35 39 -7 15 -16 132 Orange Durham Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Alamance Chatham Forsyth Lee Cumberland All Other Locations
  • 241. Hillsborough Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 4,590 drive in, 2,883 drive out, and 257 live and work in Hillsborough Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 242. Where do Hillsborough’s 4,847 Workers Live? Hillsborough workers by county of residence, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 39%, 1,894 16%, 798 15%, 720 6%, 315 3%, 144 3%, 135 2%, 109 1%, 61 1%, 46 1%, 34 12%, 591 Orange Alamance Durham Wake Person Guilford Chatham Caswell Johnston Granville All Other Locations
  • 243. Where do Hillsborough’s 3,140 Working Residents Go To Work? Location of primary job for Hillsborough residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 30%, 929 29%, 899 15%, 472 7%, 210 3%, 100 3%, 88 1%, 29 1%, 28 .6%, 20 .6%, 19 11%, 346 Orange Durham Wake Alamance Guilford Mecklenburg Forsyth Chatham New Hanover Randolph All Other Locations
  • 244. Chatham County Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2018 9,653 drive in, 23,050 drive out, and 5,566 live and work in Chatham Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap)
  • 245. Where do Chatham County’s 28,616 Working Residents Work? Location of primary job for Chatham County residents, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 23%, 6,571 19%, 5,566 16%, 4,607 13%, 3,680 4%, 1,202 3%, 967 3%, 951 3%, 854 3%, 764 1%, 278 11%, 3,176 Wake Chatham Orange Durham Lee Guilford Randolph Mecklenburg Alamance Forsyth All Other Locations
  • 247. Young Workers Driving into Orange County for Work at All Time High, Up Over 14.5% from 2016 Young Workers (29 and younger) Living in another county driving into Orange County for work, 2002-2018 Source: US Census Bureau, LODES 8,840 10,562 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 248. Majority of Orange and Chatham Residents Work Outside the County They Live In Percent of residents commuting outside of the county for work, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 66% 81% of Orange County ResidentsCommute Out of Chatham County ResidentsCommute Out
  • 249. Most County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters Percent of county jobs filled by in-commuters, 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau LODES (OnTheMap) 71% of Orange County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters 63% of Chatham County Jobs Filled by In- Commuters
  • 251. Annual Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (in millions) FY2007-FY2021 Source: Chapel Hill Transit 6.0 6.4 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 5.6 1.6 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
  • 252. Annual GoTriangle Ridership (in millions) FY2007-FY2021 Source: GoTriangle 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
  • 253. Regional Transit Ridership Peaks at 15.3 million (FY19) and Declines to 7.2 million in FY21 Regional Transit Ridership (in millions) FY2010 to FY2021 Source: Chapel Hill Transit, GoTriangle 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 5.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 5.0 5.6 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.6 5.6 4.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 GoDurham GoTriangle Chapel Hill Transit
  • 254. Pandemic Restrictions, University Operations, and Changing Work Habits Have Big Impact on Ridership Monthly Ridership Totals January 2019 through June 2021 Source: Chapel Hill Transit; GoTriangle 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 GoTriangle CH Transit
  • 255. Another word, from our friends at Coastal
  • 257. Crime
  • 258. Chatham County Violent Crime Hits Ten Year High with Orange County Approaching a Ten Year Low Source: NC State Bureau of Investigation Orange, 152 Chatham, 213 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Orange Chatham Violent crimes per 100,000 residents (2010-2019)
  • 259. Property Crime Down 40% in Orange and Chatham Over the Decade Property crimes per 100,000 residents (2010-2019) Source: NC State Bureau of Investigation Orange, 2,763 Orange, 1,646 Chatham, 2,018 Chatham, 1,235 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Orange Chatham
  • 260. Total Incidents by Department (Murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft) Source: NC State Bureau of Investigation 1,759 1,629 1,580 1,349 1,434 1,348 1,474 1,466 709 754 657 629 526 501 469 470 792 735 623 534 502 465 547 667 392 488 485 464 441 491 425 376 294 352 374 308 327 266 217 241 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chapel Hill PD Carrboro PD Orange County Sheriff Hillsborough PD UNC Chapel Hill PS
  • 262. 2020 Orange County Land Distribution Total: 398 square miles Source: American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates, 2015-2019 Mebane 2.5 sq mi 0.6% Carrboro 6.5 sq mi 1.6% Chapel Hill 20.1 sq mi 5.0% Hillsborough 5.7 sq mi 1.4% Unincorporated Orange 362.8 sq mi 91%
  • 263. 2020 Orange County Housing Distribution 61,211 total housing units Source: 2020 Census Mebane 1,322 2% Carrboro 9,912 16% Chapel Hill 22,138 36% Hillsborough 4,267 7% Unincorporated Orange 23,555 39%
  • 265. Orange County Protected Land Acreage Total acreage of “partially protected” and “totally protected” land Source: Orange County Government, 2019 State of the Environment Report 4,380 9,318 16,397 20,413 22,907 24,647 24,647 25,471 Pre-1981 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-04 2005-08 2009-13 2014 2019
  • 266. Percentage of Protected Land in Orange County Percent Orange County lands that are “totally protected” and “partially protected” 1.7% 3.6% 6.4% 7.9% 8.9% 9.6% 9.6% 9.9% Pre-1981 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-04 2005-08 2009-13 2014 2019 Source: Orange County Government, 2019 State of the Environment Report
  • 268. Number of Orange County Farms Is Increasing USDA Census of Agriculture: Total Number of Farms in Orange County Source: US Department of Agriculture 604 645 686 2007 2012 2017
  • 269. Orange County Land in Farms (acres) in Increasing USDA Agricultural Census: total acres farmed in Orange County Source: US Department of Agriculture 60,057 56,666 69,908 2007 2012 2017
  • 270. Value of Orange County Farm Product Sales Growing USDA Agricultural Census: market value of Orange County products sold Source: US Department of Agriculture $28,084,000 $30,613,000 $37,713,000 2007 2012 2017
  • 272. Orange Co. Lags in Renewable Energy Production Capacity County Renewable Energy Production Capacity (megawatts) Source: NC Sustainable Agriculture Association, 2020 3.18 6.3 6.635 1.89 19.1 47.8 36.8 23.6 56.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake Biomass Hydroelectric Solar
  • 273. Orange and Chatham Solar Installations Source: NC Sustainable Agriculture Association, 2020
  • 274. OWASA Accounts Grow by 10,000, But Daily Water Use Near Same as 1986 Annual customer account totals and daily usage totals 1986-2021 Source: OWASA 11,343 Accounts 21,921 Accounts 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5,000 8,000 11,000 14,000 17,000 20,000 23,000 Million gallons/day (avg) Customer Accounts Customer Accounts Water Sales (Million Gallons Per Day Avg.)
  • 276. County Recycling Program Performance, FY 2016-17 Top 5 Public Recycling Per Capita Top 5 Household Recyclables Per Capita Recovery Iredell County (1) Catawba County (1) Catawba County (2) Dare County (2) Pitt County (3) Orange County (3) Orange County (4) Pitt County (4) Macon County (5) Currituck County (5) Chatham County (50) Chatham County (47) Source: NC Division of Environmental Assistance and Customer Service (DEACS)
  • 279. 2021 Community Data Partners