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AENC Demographic trends through 2035 Tippett

North Carolina Demographic trends through 2035

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AENC Demographic trends through 2035 Tippett

  1. 1. Welcome
  2. 2. NC Demographic Trends Through 2035 Association Executives of North Carolina July 17, 2016 Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina
  3. 3. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 July1Population(Millions) Year Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, NCOSBM Projections North Carolina’s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035
  4. 4. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 July1Population(Millions) Year Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 North Carolina’s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  5. 5. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 July1Population(Millions) Year Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in 2015 North Carolina’s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  6. 6. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 July1Population(Millions) Year Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in 2015 North Carolina’s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM
  7. 7. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 July1Population(Millions) Year Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in 2015 12.1M in 2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM North Carolina’s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035
  8. 8. Urbanization 50% in 1990 vs. 66% in 2010 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  9. 9. Population growth will be uneven across North Carolina Projected population growth, 2010-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
  10. 10. Data Source: NC OSBM Nearly all of the fastest growing counties are in major metro areas Projected population growth, 2010-2035
  11. 11. Data Source: NC OSBM Many counties outside of major metros projected to lose population Projected population growth, 2010-2035
  12. 12. 34% 34% 10% 7% 5% 10% 1% Triangle Charlotte Triad Wilmington Asheville All Other Metros No Metro Area Almost all future NC growth projected to occur in urban areas Projected share of 2010-2035 state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Data Source: NC OSBM
  13. 13. 34% 34% 10% 7% 5% 10% 1% Triangle Charlotte Triad Wilmington Asheville All Other Metros No Metro Area Two-thirds of NC growth projected to occur in Triangle or Charlotte Projected share of 2010-2035 state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Data Source: NC OSBM
  14. 14. Observed growth more uneven than projected Population growth, 2010-2015 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  15. 15. 34% 34% 10% 7% 5% 10% 1% 40% 34% 10% 8% 4% 5% -2% Triangle Charlotte Triad Wilmington Asheville All Other Metros No Metro Area Projected (2010-35) Observed (2010-15) Observed growth suggests Triangle may outpace projections Share of state projected vs. observed growth for select North Carolina metro areas Data Sources: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau
  16. 16. Concentration of jobs in urban centers drives population shifts Share of state employment in Mecklenburg, Wake, and Durham, Q2 2005 vs. Q2 2015 Data Source: QCEW, BLS 13.7% 10.7% 4.4% 15.6% 12.6% 4.7% Mecklenburg Wake Durham 2005 (Q2) 2015 (Q2)
  17. 17. -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Mecklenburg Wake Guilford Durham Forsyth Residents who Work Elsewhere Resident Workers Non-Resident Workers Data Source: 2009-2013 5-Year American Community Survey More than 40% of NC workers work in these 5 counties Net commuting patterns, 2009-2013
  18. 18. Average commute to work: 24minutes Data Source: 2014 American Community Survey
  19. 19. Data Source: 2014 American Community Survey 54,700 public transit 91,000 bike or walk 209,100 work at home Non-car commuting (among 4.4 million workers)
  20. 20. 152,000 373,000 549,000 994,000 Under 18 18 to 34 35 to 64 65+ Half of state’s 2 million new residents in next 20 years will be 65+ Projected NC population growth by age, 2015-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
  21. 21. 21.4% 13% 20.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 PopulationProportion65+ Year US NC Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM By 2035, more than 1 in 5 NC residents will be 65 or older Projected population share 65+, NC vs. US, 2010-2035
  22. 22. 54 counties projected to have fewer children by 2035 Counties with projected declines in child population (0-17), 2015-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
  23. 23. 42 counties projected to have fewer young adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in young adult population (18-34), 2015-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
  24. 24. 53 counties projected to have fewer working age adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in prime working age adult population (35-64), 2015-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
  25. 25. Only one county projected to have fewer older adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in older adult population (65+), 2015-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
  26. 26. Greatest ( -1927) Silent (1928-1945) Boomers (1946-1964) Gen X (1965-1981) Millennial (1982-2004) Gen Z (2005- ) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Proportionof18+Population Year Data Source: NC OSBM Baby Boomers are currently largest adult generation in NC Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, 2010-2035
  27. 27. Greatest ( -1927) Silent (1928-1945) Boomers (1946-1964) Gen X (1965-1981) 31% Millennial in 2017 Millennial (1982-2004) Gen Z (2005- ) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Proportionof18+Population Year Data Source: NC OSBM Millennial adults will outnumber Boomers in NC by 2017 Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, 2010-2035
  28. 28. Source: Carolina Demography projections using ACS, CPS, and NC OSBM data +793K homeowners +1.1M households Housing Unit Demand 2015-2035
  29. 29. North Carolina’s appeal evident in growth in vacation homes Vacation home change by NC census tract, 2000 to 2010 Data Source: Carolina Demography Loss of 100 or more -99 to -5 -4 to 4 5 to 99 100 to 249 250 or more
  30. 30. We help organizations make data-driven decisions. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH AND CONSULTING Contact us: demography@unc.edu | (919) 962-6151 Learn more: http://demography.cpc.unc.edu | @ncdemography

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