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Growing Prosperity in Austin - February 2014

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Presentation to RECA Regional Issues Committee on 02/10/14

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Growing Prosperity in Austin - February 2014

  1. 1. Growing Prosperity in Austin February 2014
  2. 2. Summary • Austin owned the ten-year period 2003-2013 compared to other US metropolitan areas • Success can breed complacency— need renewed sense of urgency about underlying challenges to Austin’s future prosperity • Time for big ideas is now 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 2
  3. 3. GDP Growth (Annual) Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) real GDP grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B). 10% 8% Austin MSA 6% 4% 2% US (MSA) 0% -2% -4% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars). 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 3
  4. 4. Job Growth (Annual) 6% 4% Austin MSA Texas 2% 0% US -2% -4% Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large metros (500,000+ pop) between 2001 and 2012. -6% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 4
  5. 5. Net Migration (2010) Travis County gained (net) average of 8,820 people and $321 million in household income per year from other states between 2006 and 2010. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map created by Forbes. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 5
  6. 6. January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in Austin Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.
  7. 7. 78701 Pop (2010): 6,841 Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 7
  8. 8. Net Migration, Diff State 12,000 10,000 8,000 Travis County CA 15% IL 7% FL 6% CA 35% LA 23% FL 5% CA 42% CA 24% FL 10% IL 7% 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10). 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 8
  9. 9. Pre-Recession Leaders (2007) Maricopa, AZ Wake, NC Tarrant, TX Orleans, LA King, WA Travis, TX 9,840 Fulton, GA 7,573 York, SC Net migration from different state 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 9
  10. 10. Post-Recession Leaders (2010) Harris, TX Bexar, TX El Paso, CO Dallas, TX Tarrant, TX Fulton, GA Fairfax, VA Travis, TX Pinal, AZ Wake, NC Orleans, LA Denver, CO Williamson, TX 7,030 3,943 0 5,000 Net migration from different state 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 10
  11. 11. Popular Neighborhoods 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Steiner Ranch Milwood/Arrowwood North Burnet/Domain Blackhawk/Hidden Lake Canyon Creek Hyde Park 7. North Loop 8. Onion Creek 9. Barton Creek/Hills 10. Old West Austin 11. Northwest Hills 12. Preston Oaks Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 11
  12. 12. Cost of Living (Housing - Sale) San Francisco Boston Austin’s most expensive neighborhood is cheaper than median prices in SF, Boston, DC, and NYC. Washington DC New York Los Angeles Seattle Denver Downtown Austin $427 Portland Raleigh Austin $153 Nashville Durham Median list price per sq ft $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 Source: Zillow.com, December 2013. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 12
  13. 13. Cost of Living (Housing - Rent) New York San Francisco Boston Washington DC Seattle Los Angeles Denver Downtown Austin $2.40 Portland Nashville Durham Austin $1.22 Raleigh Median list price per sq ft $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 Source: Zillow.com, December 2013. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 13
  14. 14. Opportunity Austin: Challenges 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 14
  15. 15. Income Stagnation 130 Per Capita Income (US=100) 120 110 Travis 100 90 80 Williamson 70 60 Hays 50 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 15
  16. 16. Education Inequality % Pop Age 25+ with No Completed Postsecondary Degree (MSA) Hispanic or Latino 80% Black or African American 73% White Asian 30% 0% 64% of job openings in 45% 2013-23 paying a living wage for a family of one adult and one child ($17 per hour) will require a postsecondary degree. No children – 43% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates. Living wage from CPPP http://familybudgets.org. Assumes employer-paid health care & no savings. 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 16
  17. 17. Affordability #affordATX 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 17
  18. 18. Research Questions • We have no idea how many people are being “pushed out” of Austin • Separating true lack of affordability and consumer preference for type of housing is not a popular topic • Need better understanding of the combined effect of housing and transportation costs 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 18
  19. 19. Opportunity Austin: Big Ideas 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 19
  20. 20. Big Ideas • Education—set goal of completed postsecondary degree for majority of working age population in MSA (54%/519K people age 25-64 had no postsecondary in 2009) • Inclusion—use Dell Medical School opportunity to show how Austin’s innovation economy can produce broad-based wealth creation 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 20
  21. 21. Bigger Ideas • Make Austin the first city in the US to eliminate working poverty • Embrace work-readiness alongside college-readiness at all levels of secondary and postsecondary • End veteran homelessness 02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee 21
  22. 22. Brian Kelsey, Principal 512-731-7851 brian@civicanalytics.com http://civicanalytics.com @civicanalytics

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