Concepts And Technologies Behind Real-Time Demand Data - A Consumer, Mobile, and Business Perspective

Concepts and Technologies
behind Real-time Demand Data
A Consumer, Mobile and Business Perspective

C. Enrique Ortiz
About Mobility
October, 2009

© 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz http://CEnriqueOrtiz.com 1

About C. Enrique Ortiz
• Technology and Products with focus on Mobile and
the (Real-time) Web, Demand Data, and
Experience Management.

• Spends quite a bit of time thinking about “futures”
and the intersection of technology and business.

• Engineering and management roles and author at
About Mobility, Motive (Alcatel-Lucent), and
Artemis Wireless Werks.


Today…


How to Influence Customers and
Maximize Conversions?

• Shelf Placement? Pricing? Brand?
• Fluctuations in inventory & pricing?
• How to Attract customers to the
store? And to specific items?
• How to influence the customer to
buy? What incentives to offer?


Attracting Customers
• What if we could tie
promotions, in real-
time, to the realities of
inventory, supply &
demand?

• How effective is traditional advertising?
How do you measure effectiveness?
• How effective are paper coupons?
• How many people actually spend the
time cutting/using paper coupons? What
about remembering to use them before
they expire?
Remember “Blue Light Specials”?

But it doesn’t have to be
that way…


Imagine…
• Your products as interactive items and
connected to the Internet.
• Thousands or millions of consumers
interacting with your products directly and
indirectly.
• And with each interaction a wealth of
information is being generated.
• And with this information influence
consumers.


Real-time Demand Data
Life-cycle


Life-cycle of Demand Data
1
Make product interactive For a time
Individualize Interactions Make product visible | attract customer period, or
Influence the consumer on-going

2
Capture, Measure & Classify
Interactions
Analyze
3
Understand
The Effectiveness and Audience
Improve
4
Optimize
for Performance Adjust: placement,
targets, pricing,
Context, Interactions, Data promotions, etc.


Unique 3-Tier Demand Data Analysis
• A 3-tier approach to demand Macro ie
data, business analysis and Behavioral & Business Economics

personalized consumer
experience.
• Macro layer focuses on the Contextual ie
User and Social Context,
behavioral and business Behavior, Influence, Recommendations,
economics. Personalization, ualitative,
uantitative, Heuristics,
• Contextual layer focuses on Algorithms...

context and algorithmic
views.
• Micro layer focuses on low- Micro ie
level methods and data-sets Demand Data, Activities, Interactions, Meta-
data, Data-feeds, Integration and Business
needed by the contextual Rules, Devices and Channels and their
capabilities, User information, Preferences,
layer and thus the macro Profiles, Social networks, Location, Address
layer. Books, Identities, ...


Making Products Interactive

…and connecting products to the Internet


Making Products Interactive
Connecting Products to the Internet

• Everything can be made addressable and thus
identifiable.
• Imagine making your products interactive (and
connected to the Internet).
– Interact via books or magazines, posters, soda cans,
billboards.
– Through a number to call, a short-code to text, RFID or
barcodes, via augmented reality!
• And the Mobile Handset is at the center of this –
the gateway between products and information.


Visual Tags: Barcodes
• More than 30 types of 1D
barcodes.
• More than 40 types of 2D
barcodes.
• Capacities from bits to
thousands of bytes.
• Store numbers, characters,
URLs.
• Some proprietary others
“open”.
• Requires camera and
capture SW.
• It is here today.


RF Tags: RFID, Near Field Communication
• Contactless (swipe | touch).
• Short-range ~4-10 cm.
• Integrated into Phones, Cards,
Stickers, POS, Smartcards.
• Store numbers, characters, URLs,
associate actions.
• Requires enablement.
• It is kind of here today – expect
mass adoption 3-5 years.

• Bluetooth (not shown) is a radio-
based alternative for “nearby”
pushed messages and user-
initiated discovery of events.

Pictured above: ACR122 NFC Contactless Smartcard Reader,
ViVOtech terminal, Alcatel-Lucent’s touchatag NFC Kit


Messaging: SMS, Email, Life-Streams
• Most predominant way to
connect & make items
interactive.
• SMS: “young” folks loves and
use texting – great channel for
this demographic.
• Billions of text messages sent
every year – very pervasive.
• Perfect for reaching-out (push).
• Already enabled.
• Bluetooth hasn’t been much
successful as a messaging
(push) marketing tool.


Mobile Web
• Browser-based.
• Typically requires user
typing URLs or search
strings.
• Can be push initiated (via
SMS including a URL).
• Future browsers integrated
with location and camera
(i.e. scan barcode).
Top: Android handset • Requires enablement: data-
Right: Google Shopping
plan.


The Real-time Web
• Life-streams, Social Portals,
blogs. Facebook, Twitter
messaging.
• As Real-time as it gets.
• Perfect for reaching-out
(push).
• Search vs. Reach.
• Requires enablement.


Augmented Reality
• Superimpose digital
information on top of the
real-word, in real-time.
• For searching.
• For Product information.
• Very exciting technology
with great potential.
• Requires enablement
(camera and software).


Good ole’ Voice Call
• It is here today and it works.
• No enablement required.
• Not “cool” enough?
• Sequential.
• Complex audio-menus.


The Role of the Mobile Handset
isual ags
• The Handset is right in
adio ags the middle.
oice Calls
• Maximize the number
of supported
interaction types.
Mobile eb • Texting is the most
pervasive interaction.
he eal time eb
• Experiment with new
ways such as
barcodes and
augmented reality.
• All these are still very
© 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz
exting
Augmented eality
new concepts for
consumers.

But Why the Mobile Handset, Really?
The Mobile Lifestyle


The convergence between advancements in mobile technology AND the Mobile Lifestyle


Summary of Interaction Types
Client Ease of Use Cost of Interaction
Interaction Availability
Enablement?** for user Support
Easy (depends on High
Voice* High No
menu complexity) (server-side)
Med-High; depends on
SMS plan, Twitter, Easy for those who
Messaging* High approach and volume
etc. like to text (server-side)

Easy-Med; depends Low-Med
Mobile Web Med-High Data plan
on app (server-side)

Easy-Med; depends Low-Med
Real-time Web* High Client SW
on app (server-side)

Low. Depending on Radio support, Easy-Med; depends Low-Med
Radio Tags
Region Device SW on app (device, server-side)

Visual Tags Camera, Easy-Med; depends Low-Med
Med
(barcodes) Device SW on app (device, server-side)

Low. New Camera, Easy-Med; depends Low-High
Augmented Reality
technology. GPS, SW on app (device, server-side)

*Great for Reaching-out (push) **Some client SW enablement via App Stores.
Note: Bluetooth would be similar to Radio Tags but with a HIGH cost of interaction support due to introduction of Kiosks or Bluetooth gateways.


Thousands or millions
consumers interacting with
your products

…and understanding Interactions and the importance of Context


Interactions = Demand Data
Interaction Levels vs. Types

• Active (Real-time ) or • May have to be made
passive (past history). anonymous.
• Direct or indirect and carry • Becomes part of larger
explicit vs. implicit aggregated set.
(hidden) data. • Capture and classify.
• Signify intent or • Sources: handset, trends,
Real-time Web, other.
action/conversion.
• One way or 2-way Real-time
“conversations”. (Active)

• Leaves behind a digital Interactions Past History
(Passive)

footprint. Real-time
Web Trends
(Active)


eal time
Real-time Interactions Interactions
• Indirect interactions Recommendation
– Signifies intention
– Implicit interaction

ion
nt
Promotion

te
In
– Can happen from anywhere

t/
on

ec
ti

di r
en
– Goal is to influence customer In t

In
/
ct
ir e Product item
In d tention
• Direct interactions Dir ect / In
Indi
rect
– Goes beyond intention Di
re
ct
/ ??
?
Physically
/I
– More explicit and likely to nt
en
tio
Walks-by

Tr
n
convert (into a transaction)

an
sa
Picks-up or

c ti
– Critical point in buying decision;

on
Touches item
“last chance” to influence
– Typically occurs “on location” i.e.
Buy
store or virtual store


The Importance of Context
• “The user’s mobile context can be defined as the
set of and the intersection between facts, events,
circumstances, and information that surrounds the
(mobile) user at a given point in time.”

• Enhances and augments the meaning of each
interaction. Provides additional information about
a given interaction.


Context - Augmenting the meaning of
Interactions
• Makes Interactions are • Allows for dynamic
more Informative (always changing)
• Allows for more information
accurate (and timely) • Allows for information
information Adaptation (to current
• Makes information circumstances)
more relevant • ransformational
• Connected (to (promotes behavioral
inventory, people, changes – influence
Internet) consumer)


Example: Using Context to Attract
Customers
• Imagine a promotion compass. Or
promotions in augmented reality
• Businesses turn on/off promotions
as needed
• Consumers find active promotions
• From Interactions and Intentions to
potential transactions
• Leverages the user’s mobile
context to enhance value
Layar Augmented • There are privacy considerations
Reality Browser

01Pages Mobile
Promotions Solution


Listening to the Real-time Web
• As Real-time as it comes
• Public or private data; can
be very personal
• Monitor for market trends
• Monitor to learn and
adapt:
– “What’s hot”
– What’s working
– Reach-out and feedback or
reactions
– Recommendations
– Wish-lists


The Information Bank – A repository of
current and past interactions

Interactions Information Bank
DB
Interactions
Users
:
:

eal time Channels
Profiles
Interactions and :
:
rends
On the eb Promotions
Products
:
:

Thousands and millions of Stores Recommendations
: :
unique and personal entries



Value of Demand Data over Time
• Gains more value and
meaning over time © 2009 C. Enrique Ortiz

• Can be costly to store
V
a
l
• A must to store and keep u
accessible for continuous e
analysis

• Leverage cloud services Interactions/Time
such as Amazon Simple
Storage Service (S3)


Understanding and Optimizing
Demand Data Platform & Dashboard

…the software solution that powers it all


Understanding the Data
• Consider Interactions levels and types
– Think about this as weights applied to the meaning of each
Interaction
– Carry explicit and implicit data
– Explicit data is obvious while Implicit data requires further analysis
and requires past history, profiles and aggregated (across profile)
information
• Classify data
• Perform real time analysis of current & past interactions +
context & social + relationships to business data
• Perform non real time analysis of same data yields hidden
information.
– Also, computational restrictions that results on response latency are
alleviated via non-real-time (batch) analysis
• New exciting models are ahead of us
• Remember that value of data increases over time


Demand Data Management
• Interactions demand data Bus
and Information Bank Dashboard

• Correlation & Aggregation Reports
Exposed APIs
• Measure & Metrics
• Data Analysis and Mining
• Dashboard & Reporting
Demand Data Management Platform
• Campaigns & Promotions Interactions (demand data) Bus | Correlation & Aggregation | Measure, Metrics | Data Analysis and Mining | Dashboard & Reporting

• Stores , Customers &
Consumers Active Industry | Market Data Other: Customer,
Real-time Interactions (Nielsen, etc) manufacturer, supplier,

• Reach-out to Consumers inventory, data or reports

• Admin Functions Passive Interactions
The Real-Time Web
(trends, feedback,
recommendations from
• Exposed APIs life-streams and social
portals)

Database
00 C nri ue rti http C nri ue rti com


The Dashboard – “Command & Control”

• Provides Eagle’s Eye view
• Visualize and understand
performance of captured
data vs. promotions and
locations (metrics)
• Optimize promotions
• Reach-out
• Trigger “blue light
specials”



On Privacy and Security

…and related challenges


Privacy, Users and Identity
• The “young” • Data may need to be made
demographics seem not to anonymous
care as much for privacy • Data may need to reside at
(as long as something of customer’s premises
value is provided) • Data may not be allowed
• Yet, always provide proper to be aggregated
– Educate customer about the
identity abstractions that benefits though
allows for interaction and • rust is key to adoption
analysis without – People trust brands
identifying individuals – User-controlled/Permission-
– Think: User instance vs. user based helps build trust
identity • Follow the guidelines on
Interaction Data (see next)


Privacy Guidelines – Handling Personal
Data (Interactions)
Alert the User: End User, Ultimate Decision Maker:
• Sho a privacy notice - The user must • The client application must provide the
be notified that the application collects, means to turn off “tracking” at ANY
records and transmits personal time. Always give the device-user the
(location) information. ultimate decision for being tracked or
• This privacy notice must be properly not!
localized (i.e. right language for the
particular country) and must be explicit. Safeguard Captured Interactions:
• This privacy notice must be displayed
and ackno ledged, at least once • If stored on the device, must be
(probably the first time the application is safeguarded: 1) not accessible by other
used). This acknowledgement must be programs or entities, 2) and possibly
recorded. Note that recording the encrypted.
acknowledgement also serves to protect • If stored on the server, must be totally
you, validating you did your part safeguarded.
notifying the user. • If transmitted, must be properly
• This privacy notice should be re encrypted.
displayed every once in a while, lets say
once a month, or once a quarter, or
something that is configurable, but the Adapted from C nri ue’s rti Guidelines for LBS Developers
see http C nri ue rti com
notice should never be disabled.


What can we do with all this newly
gained Knowledge?


Knowledge is Power…
“Those who understand the power of real time
data and the technologies that allow businesses to
(in real-time) reach and attract, converse with, and
influence customers…”

“Those are the ones who will have the advantage
to understand product and consumer behavior,
manage their brands and inventories, and
monetize the opportunity.”


Implement a smart, real-time business

For example, imagine mobile-based
•Effective campaigns
“Blue Light Specials” for everyone! •Attract consumers
Based on past personal behaviors, •Effective reward programs
preferences and business (supply and •Influence consumers
demand) needs. •Monetize


In Conclusion
• Consider supporting mobile interactions to complement
other business data-feeds.
– But take advantage of mobile handset – it is at the center.
– Enable for physical interactions. Technologies already exists to take
implement and advantage of mobile handset for interactions.
• Capture and Measure. Analyze. Optimize.
– Continuously. Extract and understand the wealth of information
from the unique and personal demand data.
– Use newly gained knowledge to better influence consumers
• Context is key. Privacy is key.
– Permissions and Trust are very important.
• Leverage the Real-time Web
– Monitor for trends, use it to reach-out, for feedback, as source of
interactions
• You have time to experiment; adoption is still early.
– Good time to begin experimenting, pilots and educating both
customers and consumers.

Thank You!
• C. Enrique Ortiz
• Email: CEnrique@Ortiz.name
• Mobile: +1.512.410.0236
• Web: http://www.CEnriqueOrtiz.com
• Twitter: @ eortiz


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