risk assessments in water supply under climate variability and fluctuation

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Presented By:
Athulya C S
TJALECE014
Guided By:
Ms. Ayana V S
Assistant Professor ,
Department of Civil Engineering

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Water is the essence of life
 Important to both society and ecosystems
We depend on a reliable, clean supply of drinking water
We need water for agriculture, energy production,
navigation, recreation, and manufacturing
INTRODUCTION

3. WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM
Water supply systems provide water in sufficient quantity
and quality
It is an essential requirement for all people
3 components:
 Source
 Treatment
 Distribution
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Source of water refers to the surface water and
groundwater
Depending on the raw water quality, the treatment
objectives and the costs of operation, different water
treatments are provided
Water Supply System Continues...

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Comprises of :
Storage facilities
Pumping stations
Interconnected series of pipes
Water Supply System Continues...

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The failure occurs when the system is unable to meet the
water quantity and quality requirements
Risks:
• Change in precipitation
• Temperature
• Climate change
• Population
Water Supply System Continues...

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Changes are expected to differ from region-to-region
It will be directly impacted by changes in atmospheric
condition, topographical features,etc.
Any change will result in corresponding regional
changes in runoff
i. Precipitation

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Influences water availability
It cause increase in evaporation may result in droughts
Results in melting of glaciers
ii.Temperature

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The effects will be felt particularly through changes in
the water cycle
Water supply and sanitation infrastructure and
management systems are vulnerable to current climate
related threats
 It determines how much water is available and how
much water we need in the short and long term
iii.Climate change

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Major factors that define the performance of a water
supply system
A major contributor to water scarcity
As the world’s population grows, the demand for water
mounts and pressure on finite water resources increses
iv.Population

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Growth in populations means competition for water for
domestic, industrial, and municipal water uses
Limits the amount of water available per person
Population Continues...

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Risk is defined as a measure of the probability and
severity of adverse effects
Risk in water supply systems lays in the principle
components of the system
Need of Risk Assessment

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Includes :
Mechanical, operational, or structural failure
Treatment
Distribution system components
Need of Risk Assessment Continues…

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Risk found in a water supply system focused on the risk
of water shortage due to population growth and climate
change
There are three primary types of risk:
Objective
Subjective
Perceived risk
Need of Risk Assessment Continues…

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Reliability, Resiliency, and Vulnerability can be used to
describe the performance of a water resource system
a. Reliability
•Probability that a system operates within specified
conditions during a specified period of time
•Probability of a system in its satisfactory state
Need of Risk Assessment Continues…

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b. Resiliency
How quickly a system recover a failure
Measured by system’s average recovery rate
The expected maximum severity of an overall system
c. Vulnerability
Need of Risk Assessment Continues…

17. WATER DEMAND MODELLING
To forecast these future risks, one of the best methods is
to construct a stochastic model
The advantage of the stochastic approach is to capture
the uncertainties found in natural climate variability
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General Circulation Models (Global Climate Models)
are a class of computer models developed primarily for
weather forecasting and climate change
Water Demand Modelling Continues...

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A computer-based model is constructed to estimate the
performance indices of a water supply system
Examines the impacts of population growth and
fluctuating climate conditions on the water supply system
Water Demand Modelling Continues...

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MODEL ARCHITECTURE
 In most failure mode or risk analysis studies, the
potential failure to a system is first determined and
analyzed
Artificial Neural Network models are becoming
prominent for water demand forecasting

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ANN model interpret the relationship found between the
input and output data
ANN is suitable to perform a function by using multiple
parameters on the existing information and predict the
possible relationships
Artifitial Neural Network Continue...

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 ANN has the ability to map out and reproduce the
complex relationships underlying the water consumption
data
Artifitial Neural Network Continue...

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The network training process involves three major steps:
Data selection
Input variable selection
Best net selection
Artifitial Neural Network Continue...

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 ANN could compute a variety of system outputs, such
as energy costs as a function of water source and
treatment
 ANN system used to minimize operational costs
without violating regulatory and environmental
constraints
Artifitial Neural Network Continue...

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Structure of simulation model schematic for
Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability assessment
process are:
Model Archetecture Continue...

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Stimulation Model

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 Monte Carlo Simulation involves generating random
values of stochastic parameters from their corresponding
probability distribution
 Steps are:
• Generation of basic events
• Simulation of effect
• Cumulation of performance statistics
Monte Carlo Simulation Continue...

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MCM to generate two time series measures by
probability distributions and utilizes ANN to calculate the
daily water demand
Examines all the possible outcomes and assesses the
impact of risk for better decision making
Monte Carlo Model Continues...

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Monte Carlo Simulation assists organizations that allow
supply chain to forecast any number of potential obstacles,
cause disturbance
Monte Carlo Model Continues...

30. CONCLUSION
Climate change a complex issue, more work is needed to
establish reliable practices for incorporating it into water
utility decisions and planning
ANN model in combination with MCM, arrives the
advantages of a simple functional form and accuracy
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The simulation model takes climatic variables and water
consumption patterns from historical records and projects
The model is used to estimate the effects of water
efficiency management programs and system expansion
on improving the system
Conclusion Continue...

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REFERENCES
1. Beatrice Biau Yung, Bryan A. Tolson, and Donald H. Burn, “Risk
Assessment of a Water Supply System under Climate Variability:
A Stochastic Approach”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,
July 2011, pp.252-262.
2. Guy Howard, Katrina Charles, Kathy Pond, Anca Brookshaw,
Rifat Hossain and Jamie Bartram, “Securing 2020 vision for
2030: climate change and ensuring resilience in water and
sanitation services”, Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2010.

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3. M.Nirmala Ian Beauregard, Guillaume Talbot, Daniel Caya,
and Sebastien Binerb, “Modeling and Predicting the Monthly
Rainfall in Thamilnadu as a Seasonal Multivariate Arima
Process”, International Journal of Computer Engineering and
Technology, May-June 2010, ISSN 0976-6367, Vol.1, No.1, pp.
103-111.
4. M. R. Najafi, and H. Moradkhani, “A hierarchical Bayesian
approach for the analysis of climate change impact on runoff
extremes”, Hydrological Processes, November 2013.

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5. Philip W. Mote, and Eric P. Salathe Jr, “Future climate in the
Pacific Northwest”, Climate Change , March 2010.
6. “Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: A Review of
Water Utility Practices”, Office of Water Environmental
Protection Agency, August 2010.
7. http://www.goldsim.com/Web/Introduction/Probabilistic/Mo
nteCarlo.
8. http://www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/palmerhahnpo
rtland111.pdf
9. http://www.waterrf.org/PublicReportLibrary/4340.pdf

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