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IBM Watson-How it works
1.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation sBD07 IBM Watson: How it Works and What it Means for Society Beyond Winning Jeopardy! Tony Pearson IBM Master Inventor and Senior Managing Consultant
2.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation In 2011, the IBM Watson computer was able to beat the top-earning human winners on the trivia game-show “Jeopardy!” Presenter Tony Pearson, author of "How to Build Your Own Watson Jr. in Your Basement," will explain how the IBM Watson system was put together, how it works, and what examples of text mining and big data analytics means for society as we apply technology to meet tomorrow's challenges.
3.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation Sessions -- Tony Pearson • Monday – 1:00pm Storing Archive Data for Compliance Challenges – 4:15pm IBM Watson: What it Means for Society • Tuesday – 4:15pm Using Social Media: Birds of a Feather (BOF) • Wednesday – 9:00am Data Footprint Reduction: IBM Storage options – 2:30pm IBM's Storage Strategy in the Smarter Computing era – 4:15pm IBM SONAS and the Cloud Storage Taxonomy • Thursday – 9:00am IBM Watson: What it Means for Society – 10:30am Tivoli Storage Productivity Center Overview – 5:30pm IBM Edge “Free for All” hosted by Scott Drummond 3
4.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation An estimated 2 billion people are now on the Web … and a trillion connected objects – cars, appliances, cameras, roadways, pipelines Data is getting more social …20M articles on Wikipedia …30B pieces of Facebook content are shared monthly …There are 156M public blogs Data volume is expanding at an incredible rate …Data will grow 800% in the next five years …Unstructured data growing faster than structured Today’s Information Challenge 4
5.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation 1 in 2 Business leaders don’t have access to data they need 83% CIO’s cited BI and analytics as part of their visionary plan 54% Companies use analytics for competitive advantage 80% of the world’s data today is unstructured 90% of the world’s data was created in the last two years 20% amount of available data traditional systems leverages Source: GigaOM, Software Group, IBM Institute for Business Value" Dying of Thirst in an Ocean of Data 5
6.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation Can we design a computing system that rivals a human’s ability to retrieve, analyze and interpret vast amounts of information? What if an enterprise had all the answers it needs to succeed? 6
7.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation The Jeopardy! Challenge: A compelling and notable way to drive and measure the technology of automatic Question Answering along 5 Key Dimensions $600 In cell division, mitosis splits the nucleus & cytokinesis splits this liquid cushioning the nucleus $200 If you're standing, it's the direction you should look to check out the wainscoting. $2000 This actor, Audrey’s husband from 1954 to 1968, directed her as Rima the bird girl in ‘Green Mansions’ $1000 The first person mentioned by name in ‘The Man in the Iron Mask’ is this hero of a previous book by the same author. 1. Broad Domain 2. Complex Language 3. High Precision 4. Accurate Confidence 5. High Speed 7
8.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation The Plan: Compete against Humans to Demonstrate Technology 8
9.
#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation Do you Remember IBM Deep Blue? •Chess – A finite, mathematically well-defined search space – Limited number of moves and states – All the symbols are completely grounded in the mathematical rules of the game •Human Language – Words by themselves convey different meanings – Only grounded in human cognition – Words navigate, align and communicate an infinite space of intended meaning – Computers can not ground words to human experiences to derive meaning 9
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#IBMEDGE © 2012
IBM Corporation Where was Einstein born? Source: Spreadsheet, Database, etc. Source: Jack Welch and the GE Way, Robert Slater Source: Spreadsheet, Database, etc. Source: http://www.schaeffenacker-ulm.de/en/otto.html Structured Data Unstructured Data Welch ran this? “One day, from among his city views of Ulm, Otto chose a water color to send to Albert Einstein as a remembrance of Einstein´s birthplace” “If leadership is an art then surely Jack Welch has proved himself a master painter during his tenure at GE” Physicist Birth Place A. Einstein Ulm N. Bohr Copenhagen M. Curie Warsaw Source: IBM Research Person Organization L. Gerstner IBM J. Welch GE W. Gates Microsoft Why is it so hard for computers to understand humans? 10
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IBM Corporation Decision Maker Search Engine Finds Documents containing Keywords Delivers Documents based on Popularity Has Question Distills to 2-3 Keywords Reads Documents, Finds Matches Finds & Analyzes Evidence Informed Decision Making: Search vs. Expert Q&A Expert Understands Question Produces Possible Answers & Evidence Delivers Response, Evidence & Confidence Analyzes Evidence, Computes Confidence Asks NL Question Considers Answer & Evidence Decision Maker 11 11
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IBM Corporation Computers in SciFi Movies… Lots of Lights and Cardboard! IBM Watson….Lots of Work! 12
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IBM Corporation Question 100s Possible Answers 1000’s of Pieces of Evidence Multiple Interpretations 100,000’s scores from many simultaneous Text Analysis Algorithms100s sources . . . Hypothesis Generation Hypothesis and Evidence Scoring Final Confidence Merging & Ranking Synthesis Question & Topic Analysis Question Decomposition Hypothesis Generation Hypothesis and Evidence Scoring Answer & Confidence Unstructured Information Management Architecture (UIMA) To date, UIMA is the only industry standard for content analytics. Developed by IBM, it is now an OASIS standard, with source code for reference implementation kept by Apache Software Foundation. 13
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IBM Corporation Winning Human Performance Winning Human Performance Computers, circa 2006Computers, circa 2006 Grand Champion Human Performance Grand Champion Human Performance Each dot represents an actual historical human Jeopardy! game Answering Precision, circa 2006 14
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IBM Corporation Baseline 12/06 v0.1 12/07 v0.3 08/08 v0.5 05/09 v0.6 10/09 v0.8 11/10 v0.4 12/08 v0.2 05/08 IBM Watson Playing in the Winners Cloud V0.7 04/10 DeepQA: Progress in Answering Precision 15
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IBM Corporation • Deep Analytics – Combining many analytics in a novel architecture, we achieved very high levels of Precision and Confidence over a huge variety of content. • Speed – By optimizing Watson’s computation for Jeopardy! on 2,880 POWER7 processing cores we went from 2 hours per question on a single CPU to an average of just 3 seconds. • Results – in 55 real-time sparring games against former Tournament of Champion Players in 2010, Watson put on a very competitive performance in all games -- placing 1st in 71% of the them! Precision / Confidence & Speed 16
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IBM Corporation IBM Watson vs. Wolfram Alpha Source: http://www.quora.com/IBM-Watson/Whats-the-system-architecture-of-the-IBM-Watson
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IBM Corporation Watson’s QA Engine 2,880 IBM POWER7 Compute Cores 15 TB of Memory Strategy Text-to-Speech Jeopardy! Game Control System Human Player 2 Clue GridClue Grid Clues, Scores & Other Game Data Insulated and Self-Contained Answers & Confidences Human Player 1 Clue & Category Decisions to Buzz and Bet Analysis of natural language content equivalent to 1 Million Books Real-Time Game Configuration Watson’s Game Controller 18
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IBM Corporation Watson’s QA Engine 2,880 IBM POWER7 Compute Cores 15 TB of DRAM memory Strategy Text-to-Speech Answers & Confidences Clue & Category Decisions to Buzz and Bet IBM Watson Components Avatar - Apple Mac notebook Voice synthesis, strategies for betting, buzzing in, clue selection & exchanging info with Jeopardy Computers Windows 7 Lenovo desktop 10 Frames of Hardware: • 88 Compute nodes • 2 Storage nodes • 4 SAS disk shelves • 10GbE Network • 80 TeraFLOPS Software: • SLES 11 Linux • Clustered NFS • GPFS file system • Hadoop, UIMA-AS • 700 KLOC Java • 300 KLOC C++ IBM Power750 servers (POWER7) Watson’s Game Controller 19
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IBM Corporation Storage in IBM Watson • Sources – Encyclopedias – Dictionaries – Books and Web pages – Quotations – Wire News – Knowledge Bases – Lexical Database of English • Test and Training Data – J! Archive 2 IBM Power750 servers • Clustered NFS • IBM GPFS file system 4 IBM EXP 12S disk shelves • 48 x 450GB SAS drives • 10.4 TB of RAID-1 space • 1 TB of unstructured data 16 TB of DRAM memory
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IBM Corporation Watson Wins! Largest Jeopardy! in 5 years 34.5M Jeopardy! Viewers 1.3B+ Impressions Over 10,000 Media Stories 11,000 attend watch events 2.5M+ Videos Views 12,582 Twitter tweets 25,763 Facebook Fans On February 14-16, 2011, IBM Watson changed history, introducing a system that rivaled a human’s ability to answer questions posed in natural language with speed, accuracy and confidence. 21
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IBM Corporation Reflections on IBM Watson
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IBM Corporation How to Build your Own Watson Jr. In your Basement (eight steps) 1. Acquire Hardware 2. Establish Networking 3. Install Linux and Middleware 4. Download information sources Server 1: Presentation Server This will be your avatar interface to ask questions and display answers Server 2: Business Logic Server This will be your compute node for analytics Server 3: File / Database Server This will be your information source repository 23
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IBM Corporation How to Build your Own Watson Jr. In your Basement (eight steps) 5. Query Panel – Parsing the Question 6. Implement Hadoop, UIMA with Java, C++ and XML • This is the part we call in the industry a “Small Matter of Programming” (SMOP) 7. UIMA-AS Parallel Processing 8. Testing and Training Element # of Cores Response Single core 1 2 hours 3 Quad-Core servers 12 10 minutes 1 Frame (Watson) 288 30 seconds IBM Watson 2880 3 seconds 24
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IBM Corporation One Year Later – IBM Watson by the numbers 15 5 386 77 Million viewers watched the rerun of IBM Watson’s triumph on Jeopardy! Universities are collaborating with IBM on Watson and Analytics Thousand downloads of “How to build your own Watson Jr. in your basement” Members of U.S. Congress that have competed against Watson 25
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IBM Corporation …built on a massively parallel probabilistic evidence-based architecture Understands Natural Language of human speech Adapts and Learns from user selections and responses Generates and evaluates hypothesis for better outcomes IBM Watson brings together a set of transformational technologies to drive optimized outcomes 26
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IBM Corporation 27 8/2/2011 Watson was built for Jeopardy! Can be enhanced for future applications Watson's current capabilities were constrained for Jeopardy! requirements... • English only • A single questioner per system instance • 3-second response time • Static content • Unstructured text • Requires training data – history of questions and answers ...but future Watson enhancements are possible with further development... • Multiple, varied users • More dynamic content updates • More/varied training data • Varied response times • Additional languages Early 2011 Future 27
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IBM Corporation IBM PureSystems IBM Watson 10 Frames IBM PureFlex 4 Frames 28 60% Reduced Floor Space!
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IBM Corporation IBM Watson has the capabilities to address grand business and societal challenges Contact Center Healthcare Financial Services Government Diagnostic/treatment assistance, evidenced- based insights, collaborative medicine Investment and retirement planning, institutional trading and decision support Call center and tech support services, enterprise knowledge management, consumer insight Public safety, improved information sharing, security Transforming how Business Thinks, Acts, and Operates 29
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IBM Corporation Medical information is doubling every 5 years, much of which is unstructured 81% of physicians report spending 5 hours or less per month reading medical journals Source: International Journal of Circumpolar Health, DoctorDirectory.com, Institute for Medicine" Healthcare Industry is beset with complex information challenges Medicine has become too complex (and only) about 20 percent of the knowledge clinicians use today is evidence-based.” --- Steven Shapiro, Chief Medical and Scientific Officer, UPMC 30
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IBM Corporation Interprets and understands natural language questions Analyzes large volumes of unstructured data Quantifies degrees of confidence in potential answers Supports iterative dialogue to refine results Adapts and learns to improve results over time Why is Watson Technology ideal for Healthcare? 31 Source: IBM Research, MI, SCIP, BCG analysis What condition has red eye, pain, inflammation, blurred vision, floating spots and sensitivity to light? What condition has red eye, pain, inflammation, blurred vision, floating spots and sensitivity to light? Physician Notes, Medical Journals, Pathology results, Clinical Trials, Wikipedia, etc Physician Notes, Medical Journals, Pathology results, Clinical Trials, Wikipedia, etc Family History, Physical Exam, Current Medications, etc. Family History, Physical Exam, Current Medications, etc. New Clinical Recommendations. New Drugs. Approved use of Drugs, etc. New Clinical Recommendations. New Drugs. Approved use of Drugs, etc. Uveitis 91% Iritis 48% Keratitis 29% Uveitis 91% Iritis 48% Keratitis 29%
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IBM Corporation 32 • Private data • Custom algorithms • Custom applications Customized Watson Solution Appliance IBM Watson for Healthcare Watson for Healthcare Service ...Patient Workup Customized Solution Differential Diagnosis Second Opinion ...... Public domain Public domainPublishersPublishers Healthcare Providers Healthcare Providers ...... Watson-enabled Solutions from major healthcare solution providers Benefits Providers Benefits Providers Evidence Data Training Data Annotators and Algorithms Relationship Data Watson Engine and Scoring and Confidence Models ... Medical Professionals and Patients • Improve quality of care • Reduce errors • Engage patients • Improve audit trails • Improve efficiency • Better utilize skills • Right content, right time • Best-practices to point of care • Capture value • Advance Evidenced-based Care • Foster a healthcare analytics ecosystem • Capture value
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IBM Corporation Watson @ WellPoint • WellPoint & IBM agreement • WellPoint will develop and launch Waston-based solution –Help improve patient care –Provide delivery of up-to-date, evidence-based healthcare • IBM will develop the base Watson healthcare technology • Targeted implementation: – Physician Helper: Will be a consultant with the ability to analyze various inputs to help humans make a decision – Load Watson with medical data to analyze and identify conditions • Ranging from heart disease to cancer to diabetes. • Medical histories, test results, possible drug interactions and treatment options will be evaluated too. – Working with select physician groups in clinical spots 33
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IBM Corporation Seton Healthcare • First client to utilize IBM Content and Predictive Analytics for Healthcare – Combines IBM's Watson technology with industry solutions offering • Extract relevant clinical information from vast amounts of patient data – Better analyze the past – Understand the present – Predict future outcomes • Seton to focus on – Determine root causes of hospital re-admissions – Ways to decrease preventable multiple hospital visits • Facts… – One in five patients suffer from preventable re-admissions – Represents $17.4 billion of the current $102.6 billion Medicare budget * – Beginning in 2012, hospitals are penalized for high re-admission rates with reductions in Medicare discharge payments * According to the New England Journal of Medicine 34
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IBM Corporation • First of a kind solution for healthcare and available to help healthcare organizations with transformation opportunities – Integrates structured and unstructured data – Applies predictive root cause analysis, natural language processing (like IBM Watson), and built-in medical terminology support – Identifies trends, patterns and deviations revealing clinical and operational insights. It is a first of a kind solution for healthcare and available to help healthcare organizations with transformation opportunities. • Pairs Content Analytics and SPSS Modeler Professional with solution and healthcare industry specific medical terminology support and services – Synergistic solution to IBM Watson – Healthcare solution that pairs natural language processing with predictive root cause analysis. IBM Content and Predictive Analytics for Healthcare: 35
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IBM Corporation Reuters publishes the equivalent of 9000 pages of financial news every day1 Five new research documents come out of Wall Street every minute1 Asset managers receive up to 1,000 e-mails daily1 Sources: 1 - www.financial-domain.info/integrating-qualitative-and-quantitative-information/ 2- IBM Client experience with ForEx traders 3 – Derived from NYSE data Financial services firms are beset with complex information challenges 36
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IBM Corporation Institutional Investment Advisor Retail Financial Advisor Risk Management officer Utilize more information, more effectively and efficiently, to support investment and credit decisions Provide investment advice directly to retail investors and/or support advisors for high net worth clients Leverage superior capabilities for fraud detection and/or Compliance support Financial Services– Role based use case examples 37
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IBM Corporation Citigroup • Announced plans to explore how Watson fits into the realm of digital banking • Citigroup will examine… – Watson's ability to “Help analyze customer needs” – Process vast amounts of up-to-the-minute financial, economic, product and client data, – Provide rapid, personalized banking solutions. – Watson's Deep-content analytics, Natural language processing and Evidence-based learning with how the company interacts with customers to advance digital banking • Watson's financial assistance will be provided as a “Cloud-based service" 38
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IBM Corporation Need to rethink what it will take to get ahead tomorrow Traditional IT • Structured data (local) • Deterministic Applications • Search Oriented • Query Results • Machine Language Emerging IT • Structured & unstructured (global) • Probabilistic Applications • Discovery Oriented • Big Data Insights • Natural Language 39
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IBM Corporation Summary • IBM Watson is... – A reasoning system that processes questions and answers in Natural Language, across structured and unstructured data sources, using Deep Analytics that learns for optimal results • IBM Watson is not… – An advanced search engine, database retrieval system, our new computer overlord, or the beginning of Skynet • IBM Watson works by... – Analyzing the question, generating hypotheses, evaluating evidence and presenting results scored by confidence level • Which means that… – Society now has a new tool to help tackle some of the biggest information challenges in healthcare, financial services, etc.
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logo, Xeon and Xeon Inside are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation in the U.S. and /or other countries. Thank You! Session: sBD07 Presenter: Tony Pearson
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IBM Corporation www.ibmwatson.com www.facebook.com/ibmwatson www.twitter.com/ibmwatson (Tweet hashtag #ibmwatson ) www.youtube.com/ibm Learn more at: See Watson in action at an IBM Lab, Briefing Center or Analytics Solution Center
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IBM Corporation About the Speaker Mr. Tony Pearson Master Inventor, Senior Managing Consultant IBM System Storage Tony Pearson is a Master Inventor and Senior managing consultant for the IBM System Storage™ product line. Tony joined IBM Corporation in 1986 in Tucson, Arizona, USA, and has lived there ever since. In his current role, Tony presents briefings on storage topics covering the entire System Storage product line, Tivoli storage software products, and topics related to Cloud Computing. He interacts with clients, speaks at conferences and events, and leads client workshops to help clients with strategic planning for IBM’s integrated set of storage management software, hardware, and virtualization products. Tony writes the “Inside System Storage” blog, which is read by hundreds of clients, IBM sales reps and IBM Business Partners every week. This blog was rated one of the top 10 blogs for the IT storage industry by “Networking World” magazine, and #1 most read IBM blog on IBM’s developerWorks. The blog has been published in series of books, Inside System Storage: Volume I through IV. Over the past years, Tony has worked in development, marketing and customer care positions for various storage hardware and software products. Tony has a Bachelor of Science degree in Software Engineering, and a Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering, both from the University of Arizona. Tony holds 19 IBM patents for inventions on storage hardware and software products. 9000 S. Rita Road Bldg 9070 Mail 9070 Tucson, AZ 85744 +1 520-799-4309 (Office) tpearson@us.ibm.com Tony Pearson Master Inventor, Senior Managing Consultant IBM System Storage™
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IBM Corporation Additional Resources 44 Email: tpearson@us.ibm.com Twitter: http://twitter.com/az99Øtony Blog: http://ibm.co/brAeZØ Books: http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/99Ø_tony IBM Expert Network: http://www.slideshare.net/az99Øtony 44
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IBM Corporation Trademarks and disclaimers © IBM Corporation 2012. All rights reserved. Adobe, the Adobe logo, PostScript, and the PostScript logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States, and/or other countries. IT Infrastructure Library is a registered trademark of the Central Computer and Telecommunications Agency which is now part of the Office of Government Commerce. Intel, Intel logo, Intel Inside, Intel Inside logo, Intel Centrino, Intel Centrino logo, Celeron, Intel Xeon, Intel SpeedStep, Itanium, and Pentium are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries. Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds in the United States, other countries, or both. Microsoft, Windows, Windows NT, and the Windows logo are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. ITIL is a registered trademark, and a registered community trademark of The Minister for the Cabinet Office, and is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. UNIX is a registered trademark of The Open Group in the United States and other countries. Java and all Java-based trademarks and logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Oracle and/or its affiliates. Cell Broadband Engine is a trademark of Sony Computer Entertainment, Inc. in the United States, other contries, or both and is used under license therefrom. Linear Tape-Open, LTO, the LTO Logo, Ultrium, and the Ultrium logo are trademarks of HP, IBM Corp. and Quantum in the U.S. and other countries. Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other companies. Trademarks of International Business Machines Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both can be found on the World Wide Web at http://www.ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml. Information is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. The customer examples described are presented as illustrations of how those customers have used IBM products and the results they may have achieved. Actual environmental costs and performance characteristics may vary by customer. Information concerning non-IBM products was obtained from a supplier of these products, published announcement material, or other publicly available sources and does not constitute an endorsement of such products by IBM. Sources for non-IBM list prices and performance numbers are taken from publicly available information, including vendor announcements and vendor worldwide homepages. IBM has not tested these products and cannot confirm the accuracy of performance, capability, or any other claims related to non-IBM products. Questions on the capability of non-IBM products should be addressed to the supplier of those products. All statements regarding IBM future direction and intent are subject to change or withdrawal without notice, and represent goals and objectives only. Some information addresses anticipated future capabilities. Such information is not intended as a definitive statement of a commitment to specific levels of performance, function or delivery schedules with respect to any future products. Such commitments are only made in IBM product announcements. The information is presented here to communicate IBM's current investment and development activities as a good faith effort to help with our customers' future planning. Performance is based on measurements and projections using standard IBM benchmarks in a controlled environment. The actual throughput or performance that any user will experience will vary depending upon considerations such as the amount of multiprogramming in the user's job stream, the I/O configuration, the storage configuration, and the workload processed. Therefore, no assurance can be given that an individual user will achieve throughput or performance improvements equivalent to the ratios stated here. Prices are suggested U.S. list prices and are subject to change without notice. Starting price may not include a hard drive, operating system or other features. Contact your IBM representative or Business Partner for the most current pricing in your geography. Photographs shown may be engineering prototypes. Changes may be incorporated in production models. References in this document to IBM products or services do not imply that IBM intends to make them available in every country.
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