Climate change


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How changing climate can effect Pakistan's Agriculture

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Climate change

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  2. 2. Shahid Farooq University College of Agriculture, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan 2 “One Day Seminar on “Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture” Layyah - 31-12-2010 Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture
  3. 3. Environment  Surrounding of anything that affects its activities is known as environment.  Components of Environment  Hydrosphere  Lithosphere  Atmosphere
  4. 4. Atmosphere
  5. 5. Climate Change: Some Definitions 5 Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc. Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades. Climatic elements: precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather.
  6. 6. Pakistan Climate  Pakistan lies in the temperate zone. The climate is generally arid to semi-arid, characterized by hot summers and cool or cold winters, and wide variations between extremes of temperature at given locations.  Pakistan has recorded one of the highest temperatures in the world, the hottest of which is recorded in Mohenjo-Daro, Sindh, 53.5 °C (128 °F) on 26 May, 2010 it is not only the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, but also the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded in the continent of Asia.
  7. 7. Our Climate is Changing  During the last century, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases have continued to rise as a result of human activities.  Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6 °C.  Global average sea level has risen about 15 cm in the previous century and ocean heat content has increased.  “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” (IPCC, 2001)  CO2 Concentrations and Global Average Temperatures Will Continue to Rise • Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm • Current level: 360 ppm • Level in 2100: ~700 ppm with large uncertainty Source: IPCC, 2001
  8. 8. Heat Trapping Mechanism  The sunlight mainly consists of 3 types of radiations  Ultraviolet, Visible (PAR) and Infrared  Infrared rays are heat rays and if trapped cause heating of earth and its atmosphere.  When IR are emitted from extremely hot bodies like sun are of short wavelength and can’t be absorbed by CO2 and even glass sheet.  When IR are emitted from less hot bodies like earth surface or bodies present on earth, are of longer wavelength and can be absorbed by CO2 molecules and other gases present in the atmosphere.  Harmful UV rays are absorbed by Ozone layer and most of it don’t reach earth surface.
  9. 9. Green House Effect  The heating of earth’s atmosphere due to absorption of IR radiations reflected from earth’s surface by green house gases in atmosphere. These gases are CO2, Methane, Nitrogen oxides, Chlorofluorocarbons, water vapors, Ozone etc.  CO2 57%  Methane 12%  Nitrogen Oxides 6%  Chlorofluorocarbons 12%  Water vapors and Ozone 5%
  10. 10. 10 343 W/m2 30%
  11. 11. Greenhouse Effect  The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;  If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K) instead of the present 15oC;  Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;  It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing Global Warming and Climate Change.
  12. 12. Who Causes the Climate Change!!   We do!!!  We send greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.  Industrial practices; cars, planes, factories, electricity, and solid trash.  Environmental practices; deforestation, and pollution.
  13. 13. Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
  14. 14. Why Climate is Changing???  Deforestation  Cultivation of land  Industrialization  Automobile revolution  Urbanization  Fossil fuel combustion  Population Explosion  Refrigerators  Chl0rofluorocarbons (CCl3F, CCl2F2)  Rockets, Jets sent into space (Each rocket releases 75- 150 tones of Chlorine).
  15. 15. Role of Agriculture in Climate Change  Emission of green house gases from crops  Cultivation of land  Intensive agriculture practices  Use of chemical fertilizers  Use of Pesticides  Respiration activities  Burnings of straws, stubbles etc.  Decomposition of Organic Matter  Anaerobic rice cultivation  Livestock activities
  16. 16. 1.17 70% of global N20 emissions from artificial fertilizers 50% of global methane emissions from rice paddies Agricultural Sector Contributes 20% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions 5% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and biomass burning
  17. 17. Natural Climate Variability Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution CLIMATE CHANGE Global Warming Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution Melting of Glaciers & Snow Sea level Rise Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather Events IMPACTS Uncertainty in Water Availability Decrease in Crop Yields Newer perspective for sources of energy Loss of Biodiversity Increased Health Risks Spiraling Population High pace of Industrialization Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in Industry & Transport Deforestation for Agriculture and Urbanization Climate Change Natural + Anthropogenic
  18. 18. Future Impacts of Climate Change  Severe stress on natural ecosystems  Expansion of Earth’s deserts  Melting of the polar ice caps and rise in sea level  More extreme weather events  Loss of Biodiversity  Movement of Traditional agriculture areas  Species extinction  Decrease of human health and living standards
  19. 19. Future Impacts of Climate Change  Food Shortage  Heavy floods  Increase in salinity level  Water logging  Drought, Water shortage  Acid Rains  Ozone Depletion
  20. 20. Millions at Risk (Parry et al., 2001) 15 September 2006 IEF climate conference 22
  21. 21. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture  Beneficial effects (Lengthen the growing season in cool areas  Loss in yield  Disturbance of cropping patterns  Uneven distribution of precipitation  Dangers of floods causing loss of agriculture crops  Water shortage  Occurrence of drought  Increase in salinity  Increase in water logging  Stunted growth due to oxides of nitrogen and fluoride  Increase in evaporation rate
  22. 22.  Adversely affect crops in heat limited areas  Change the life cycle of oilseeds and grains  Migration of weeds  Climate change may alter the world's habitats and ecosystems.  Life depends on a delicate balance of rainfall, temperature, and soil type.  Global Warming could upset this balance and seriously endanger many living things.  Climate Change used to occur slowly, allowing plants and animals to adapt to the new environment or move somewhere else. However, if future climate changes occur as rapidly as some scientists predict, plants and animals may not be able to react quickly enough to survive.
  23. 23. Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change  Increased variability of Monsoon  More rapid melting of Glaciers threatening IRS Flows  Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture, water for industrial and domestic sectors.  Increased risks of floods and droughts
  24. 24. Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan  Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF  Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.  International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.  World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
  25. 25. 28 Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, 1978 2002
  26. 26. GLOFS in Pakistan  As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:  property,  farms,  socio-economic infrastructure  and livelihood of mountain people  and downstream communities. 29
  27. 27. There is an urgent need to  Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water resources and storage requirements in the wake of climate change threat Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to avoid calamites. 30 The Water Challenge: Conclusion
  28. 28. Food Security Challenge
  29. 29. Agriculture Systems in Pakistan  Irrigated Agriculture Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to national production  Rained and Dry land Agriculture Contributes <30% to national production.
  30. 30. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change  Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change  Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.  Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc
  31. 31. Impacts of Climate Change on Crops  Shortening of growing season length  Loss in yield  Heat and water stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages  Increased pest/disease incidence  Increased crop water requirements
  32. 32. 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 0 1 2 3 4 5 Temperature Change (o C) WheatYield(kg/ha) Northern Mountainous (Humid) Northern Sub- Mountainous (Sub-humid) Southern Plains (Semi arid) Southern Plains (Arid) Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan
  33. 33. Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts  Evolution of new genotypes having tolerance against drought, heat and chilling injury,  Water wise cultivation,  Aerobic rice cultivation  Improved methods of fertilizer application  Reconsider the existing cropping patterns  Minimum Cultivation  High efficiency irrigation systems  Avoid crop residue burning  Reforestation
  34. 34. Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts  Farm Management Practices  Diversify Crops (More perennial crops)  Organic production  Grow restorative crops  Efficient land use  Diversify enterprise (More livestock in farm)  Land Conservation (Conservational tillage, zero tillage)  Water resources management (efficient irrigation systems, construction of water storage bodies i.e., dams, ponds etc. to save extra water)
  35. 35. Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts  Policies matter!!!  Construction of dams  Lining of water courses, Minors and Canals  Laser land leveling  Improve N use efficiency  Use of bio fuels  Methane capture
  36. 36. Climate Extreme Events  Heavy floods,  Droughts,  Heavy precipitation events,  Hailstorms,  Dust storms,  Cyclones,  Heat /Cold waves
  37. 37. Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan 2010 Heavy floods in the country which has cause loss of billions of rupees of infrastructure, agriculture and economy. 2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm occurred in 1977 2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929 2003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached 52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near 44°C 2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July
  38. 38. Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah ( 23rd July 2001)
  39. 39. Flood Stranded People on the Highway
  40. 40. Land Degradation in Pakistan  Water Erosion : 17%  Wind Erosion : 8%  Salinity and Sodicity : 9%  Water logging : 5%  Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%
  41. 41. Impacts on Land degradation Land degradation enhanced by climate change due to  Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfall  Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land surface.
  42. 42. Arial and Soil Temperature of Different Sowing Times  Sowing time Arial Temp C0 Soil Temp C0  25 October 09 27 23  10 November 09 23 21  25 November 09 20 19  10 December 09 21 16  25 December 09 19 14
  43. 43. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9No.ofdays 25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec Sowing Date Sehar-06 Fsd-08 Lassani-08 AS-2002 TD-1 Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start germination
  44. 44. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 No.ofDays 25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec Sowing Date Sehar-06 Fsd-08 Lasani-08 AS-2002 TD-1 Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start tillering
  45. 45. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 No.oftillers Sehar- 06 FSD-08 Lasani- 08 AS- 2002 TD-1 Wheat genotypes 25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on Fertile tillers/m 2
  46. 46. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 kg/ha Sehar-06 FSD-08 Lasani-08 AS-2002 TD-1 Wheat genotype 25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on economic yield
  47. 47. Is It Too Late to Save Our Planet?!  No it is not.  We can:  Plant Trees.  Recycle things  Walk, ride bikes instead of cars and buses.  Save electricity and other sorts of energy.  Read and Spread Awareness of Climate Change among people.  Use cars that save energy.  Find safe energy sources like the solar energy, to replace the fuel.  Use Energy Star machines; those machines save energy.
  48. 48. What we can do???  Reduce Green house gases emission  Reduce our demand of energy in  Our homes  Transport  Industry  Ride bikes, walk and use less cars  Talk to Your Family and Friends  Plant Trees  Use Recyclable things
  49. 49. What we can do???  When You Buy, Buy Cool Stuff  Use less water, save it  Use less lights in household  Water wise cultivation  Less intensive cropping  Breed new heat tolerant and water saving crop varieties  High efficiency irrigation systems  Minimum tillage
  50. 50. What we can do???  Avoid burning of fossil fuels  Use water efficiently  Be green in your yard  Seal and insulate your home  Use Renewable Fuels  Act globally, eat locally
  51. 51. Thank you