This document discusses the effects of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. It begins by defining key terms like weather, climate, and climate change. It then discusses how Pakistan's climate has warmed in recent decades and the human activities that are contributing to increased greenhouse gases and global warming. The text outlines several impacts climate change may have on agriculture, including changing crop yields and water availability. It concludes by suggesting some steps that can be taken to help agriculture adapt to climate change impacts, such as developing new crop varieties and improving water management.

1. 1

2. Shahid Farooq
University College of Agriculture,
Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan
2
“One Day Seminar on “Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture”
Layyah - 31-12-2010
Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

3. Environment
 Surrounding of anything that affects its activities is
known as environment.
 Components of Environment
 Hydrosphere
 Lithosphere
 Atmosphere

4. Atmosphere

5. Climate Change: Some Definitions
5
Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a
given time and place, with respect
to the variables such as temperature,
moisture, pressure etc.
Climate: Average weather. Statistical description
of mean weather conditions over a
period of several years, typically 2-3
decades.
Climatic elements: precipitation, temperature, humidity,
sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and
hail storms, and other measures of the weather.

6. Pakistan Climate
 Pakistan lies in the temperate zone. The climate is
generally arid to semi-arid, characterized by hot
summers and cool or cold winters, and wide variations
between extremes of temperature at given locations.
 Pakistan has recorded one of the highest temperatures
in the world, the hottest of which is recorded in
Mohenjo-Daro, Sindh, 53.5 °C (128 °F) on 26 May,
2010 it is not only the hottest temperature ever
recorded in Pakistan, but also the hottest reliably
measured temperature ever recorded in the
continent of Asia.

7. Our Climate is Changing
 During the last century, the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases have
continued to rise as a result of human
activities.
 Global average surface temperatures
have increased by about 0.6 °C.
 Global average sea level has risen about
15 cm in the previous century and ocean
heat content has increased.
 “There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over the
last 50 years is attributable to human
activities” (IPCC, 2001)
 CO2 Concentrations and Global Average
Temperatures Will Continue to Rise
• Pre-industrial level:
280 ppm
• Current level:
360 ppm
• Level in 2100: ~700
ppm with large
uncertainty
Source: IPCC, 2001

8. Heat Trapping Mechanism
 The sunlight mainly consists of 3 types of radiations
 Ultraviolet, Visible (PAR) and Infrared
 Infrared rays are heat rays and if trapped cause heating
of earth and its atmosphere.
 When IR are emitted from extremely hot bodies like
sun are of short wavelength and can’t be absorbed by
CO2 and even glass sheet.
 When IR are emitted from less hot bodies like earth
surface or bodies present on earth, are of longer
wavelength and can be absorbed by CO2 molecules
and other gases present in the atmosphere.
 Harmful UV rays are absorbed by Ozone layer and
most of it don’t reach earth surface.

9. Green House Effect
 The heating of earth’s atmosphere due to absorption of
IR radiations reflected from earth’s surface by green
house gases in atmosphere. These gases are CO2,
Methane, Nitrogen oxides, Chlorofluorocarbons, water
vapors, Ozone etc.
 CO2 57%
 Methane 12%
 Nitrogen Oxides 6%
 Chlorofluorocarbons 12%
 Water vapors and Ozone 5%

10. 10
343 W/m2
30%

11. Greenhouse Effect
 The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in
maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;
 If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average
temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K)
instead of the present 15oC;
 Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse
Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;
 It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing
Global Warming and Climate Change.

13. Who Causes the Climate Change!! 
 We do!!!
 We send greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
 Industrial practices; cars, planes, factories,
electricity, and solid trash.
 Environmental practices; deforestation, and
pollution.

14. Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

15. Why Climate is Changing???
 Deforestation
 Cultivation of land
 Industrialization
 Automobile revolution
 Urbanization
 Fossil fuel combustion
 Population Explosion
 Refrigerators
 Chl0rofluorocarbons (CCl3F, CCl2F2)
 Rockets, Jets sent into space (Each rocket releases 75-
150 tones of Chlorine).

16. Role of Agriculture in Climate Change
 Emission of green house gases from crops
 Cultivation of land
 Intensive agriculture practices
 Use of chemical fertilizers
 Use of Pesticides
 Respiration activities
 Burnings of straws, stubbles etc.
 Decomposition of Organic Matter
 Anaerobic rice cultivation
 Livestock activities

17. 1.17
70% of global N20
emissions from artificial
fertilizers
50% of global
methane emissions
from rice paddies
Agricultural Sector
Contributes 20% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions
5% of global CO2
emissions from
fossil fuel
consumption and
biomass burning

19. Natural Climate
Variability
Anthropogenic Influences since
the Industrial revolution
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency &
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water
Availability
Decrease in Crop
Yields
Newer perspective for sources
of energy
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased
Health Risks
Spiraling
Population
High pace of
Industrialization
Increasing use of
Fossil Fuels in
Industry &
Transport
Deforestation for
Agriculture and
Urbanization
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic

20. Future Impacts of Climate Change
 Severe stress on natural ecosystems
 Expansion of Earth’s deserts
 Melting of the polar ice caps and rise in sea level
 More extreme weather events
 Loss of Biodiversity
 Movement of Traditional agriculture areas
 Species extinction
 Decrease of human health and living standards

21. Future Impacts of Climate Change
 Food Shortage
 Heavy floods
 Increase in salinity level
 Water logging
 Drought, Water shortage
 Acid Rains
 Ozone Depletion

22. Millions at Risk (Parry et al., 2001)
15 September 2006 IEF climate conference 22

24. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
 Beneficial effects (Lengthen the growing season in
cool areas
 Loss in yield
 Disturbance of cropping patterns
 Uneven distribution of precipitation
 Dangers of floods causing loss of agriculture crops
 Water shortage
 Occurrence of drought
 Increase in salinity
 Increase in water logging
 Stunted growth due to oxides of nitrogen and fluoride
 Increase in evaporation rate

25.  Adversely affect crops in heat limited areas
 Change the life cycle of oilseeds and grains
 Migration of weeds
 Climate change may alter the world's habitats and
ecosystems.
 Life depends on a delicate balance of rainfall, temperature,
and soil type.
 Global Warming could upset this balance and seriously
endanger many living things.
 Climate Change used to occur slowly, allowing plants and
animals to adapt to the new environment or move
somewhere else. However, if future climate changes occur
as rapidly as some scientists predict, plants and animals
may not be able to react quickly enough to survive.

26. Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change
 Increased variability of Monsoon
 More rapid melting of Glaciers threatening IRS Flows
 Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture, water for
industrial and domestic sectors.
 Increased risks of floods and droughts

27. Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan
 Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water storage in glaciers in
Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF
 Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows
from UIB.
 International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in
Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the
present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035
is very high”.
 World Bank (2006):
Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing
increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty,
resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty
years.

28. 28
Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,
1978
2002

29. GLOFS in Pakistan
 As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind
moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime
leading to floods known as Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:
 property,
 farms,
 socio-economic infrastructure
 and livelihood of mountain people
 and downstream communities.
29

30. There is an urgent need to
 Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water resources and
storage requirements in the wake of climate change
threat
Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to
avoid calamites.
30
The Water Challenge:
Conclusion

31. Food Security Challenge

32. Agriculture Systems in Pakistan
 Irrigated Agriculture
Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to
national production
 Rained and Dry land Agriculture
Contributes <30% to national production.

33. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change
 Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to
glacier melt in the wake of climate change
 Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity,
intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
 Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate
extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust
storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

34. Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
 Shortening of growing season length
 Loss in yield
 Heat and water stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g.
flowering, grain initiation stages
 Increased pest/disease incidence
 Increased crop water requirements

35. 2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change (o
C)
WheatYield(kg/ha)
Northern
Mountainous
(Humid)
Northern Sub-
Mountainous
(Sub-humid)
Southern Plains
(Semi arid)
Southern Plains
(Arid)
Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat
yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan

36. Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts
 Evolution of new genotypes having tolerance against
drought, heat and chilling injury,
 Water wise cultivation,
 Aerobic rice cultivation
 Improved methods of fertilizer application
 Reconsider the existing cropping patterns
 Minimum Cultivation
 High efficiency irrigation systems
 Avoid crop residue burning
 Reforestation

37. Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts
 Farm Management Practices
 Diversify Crops (More perennial crops)
 Organic production
 Grow restorative crops
 Efficient land use
 Diversify enterprise (More livestock in farm)
 Land Conservation (Conservational tillage, zero
tillage)
 Water resources management (efficient irrigation
systems, construction of water storage bodies i.e.,
dams, ponds etc. to save extra water)

38. Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts
 Policies matter!!!
 Construction of dams
 Lining of water courses, Minors and Canals
 Laser land leveling
 Improve N use efficiency
 Use of bio fuels
 Methane capture

39. Climate Extreme Events
 Heavy floods,
 Droughts,
 Heavy precipitation events,
 Hailstorms,
 Dust storms,
 Cyclones,
 Heat /Cold waves

40. Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2010 Heavy floods in the country which has cause loss of billions of rupees of
infrastructure, agriculture and economy.
2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at
Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm
occurred in 1977
2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature
of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after
78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929
2003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached
52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near
44°C
2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July

41. Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah
( 23rd July 2001)

42. Flood Stranded People on the Highway

43. Land Degradation in Pakistan
 Water Erosion : 17%
 Wind Erosion : 8%
 Salinity and Sodicity : 9%
 Water logging : 5%
 Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%

44. Impacts on Land degradation
Land degradation enhanced by climate change due to
 Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high
rainfall
 Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater
evaporation from land surface.

46. Arial and Soil Temperature of Different Sowing
Times
 Sowing time Arial Temp C0 Soil Temp C0
 25 October 09 27 23
 10 November 09 23 21
 25 November 09 20 19
 10 December 09 21 16
 25 December 09 19 14

47. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9No.ofdays
25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
Sowing Date
Sehar-06
Fsd-08
Lassani-08
AS-2002
TD-1
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start germination

48. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
No.ofDays
25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
Sowing Date
Sehar-06
Fsd-08
Lasani-08
AS-2002
TD-1
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start tillering

49. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
No.oftillers
Sehar-
06
FSD-08 Lasani-
08
AS-
2002
TD-1
Wheat genotypes
25-Oct
10-Nov
25-Nov
10-Dec
25-Dec
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on Fertile tillers/m
2

50. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
kg/ha
Sehar-06 FSD-08 Lasani-08 AS-2002 TD-1
Wheat genotype
25-Oct
10-Nov
25-Nov
10-Dec
25-Dec
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on economic yield

51. Is It Too Late to Save Our Planet?!
 No it is not.
 We can:
 Plant Trees.
 Recycle things
 Walk, ride bikes instead of cars and buses.
 Save electricity and other sorts of energy.
 Read and Spread Awareness of Climate Change among people.
 Use cars that save energy.
 Find safe energy sources like the solar energy, to replace the fuel.
 Use Energy Star machines; those machines save energy.

52. What we can do???
 Reduce Green house gases emission
 Reduce our demand of energy in
 Our homes
 Transport
 Industry
 Ride bikes, walk and use less cars
 Talk to Your Family and Friends
 Plant Trees
 Use Recyclable things

53. What we can do???
 When You Buy, Buy Cool Stuff
 Use less water, save it
 Use less lights in household
 Water wise cultivation
 Less intensive cropping
 Breed new heat tolerant and water saving crop
varieties
 High efficiency irrigation systems
 Minimum tillage

54. What we can do???
 Avoid burning of fossil fuels
 Use water efficiently
 Be green in your yard
 Seal and insulate your home
 Use Renewable Fuels
 Act globally, eat locally

55. Thank you