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1. Economy shift
after COVID-19:
Appetite for Disruption
Schaffhausen Institute of Technology
April 2020
Dr Guenther Dobrauz-Saldapenna

2. Economic shift
1

3. PwC
Economic Shift – the foundation are the COVID-19 scenarios – V, U
and L
3
1) Total number of active COVID-19 cases, i.e. after cures
Source. Strategy& analysis
• Lockdown period limited to one month
• Shock impact on the economy as a whole,
followed by swift and complete recovery
• Full-year growth reduction limited to one year
• Postponement of investment and consumption
rather than cancellation
Mild Severe Drastic
• Lockdown period for up to 2-3 months
• Sustained recession, return to previous GDP
level over several quarters
• Overall growth of at least two full years affected
• Postponement and, in part, sustained restriction
of investment and consumption
• Lockdown period until the end of August
• Drastic impact on economy and prolonged
recession, threats to monetary / financial system
• Return to the level of total output before
COVID-19 not foreseeable
• Deep restrictions on investment / consumption
Scenario rationale
V-scenario U-scenario L-scenario
GDP change (quarterly)
= crisis and recovery period = lockdown period = infection curve1)
Quarters
E.g. W-shaped infections curve
and second lockdown

4. PwC
Many industries are severely impacted by COVID-19, posing
unprecedented challenges for the whole economy
Impact on industries in Germany/Europe
4
Passenger transp., travel, hospitality
GVA = Gross value added, i.e. an industry’s contribution to the GDP
Energy
Cons. goods & retail (food)
Freight transportation
Chemicals
Industrial manufacturing
Financial services
Agriculture
Healthcare
Technology & software
Pharma & life sciences
Telecommunications
Services
Entertainment & media
Cons. goods & retail (non-food)
Automotive
More GVA/ growth than
without COVID-19
NEGATIVE
SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE
NEUTRAL
VERY
NEGATIVE
POSITIVE
GVA/ growth unaffected
by COVID-19
GVA/ growth (slightly/ very)
impacted by COVID-19,
i.e. contraction vs. base case
Symptoms (exemplary)Impact scale
Workforce availability and/ or
productivity at risk
Production stops or output
reduction throughout lockdown
Point-of-sale closure and order
cancellations through lockdown
Stable B2C consumption as
consumers stay at home
Additional uncertainty from global supply chain
Increase consumption due to
pandemic (e.g. mask sales)
Source: Strategy& analysis

5. Accelerated
Technology
Push
2

6. PwC
The dynamics of innovation
6
Key Success/Performance Parameter
Innovators Early
Adopters
Early
Majority
Late
Majority
Laggards
Time
Innovation
Production/
Efficiency

7. PwC
The dynamics of innovation
7
Key Success/Performance Parameter
Innovators Early
Adopters
Early
Majority
Late
Majority
Laggards
Time
Innovation
Production/
Efficiency
Dominant Design

8. PwC
The dynamics of innovation
8
Key Success/Performance Parameter
Innovators Early
Adopters
Early
Majority
Late
Majority
Laggards
Time
Regulation
Production/
Efficiency
Enforced Standard
Enforced Standard

9. PwC
The dynamics of innovation
9
Key Success/Performance Parameter
Innovators Early
Adopters
Early
Majority
Late
Majority
Laggards
Time
Innovation
Production/
Efficiency
Dominant Design
Dominant Design

10. PwC
Exponential technologies
A snapshot
3D printing
(additive
manufacturing)
Advanced
materials
Artificial
intelligence
(including
machine learning)
Blockchain
Digital design,
simulation, &
integration
High
performance
computing/Next-gen
Computing
(Quantum, edge & fog
computing)
Internet of
things
(networks,
sensors)
Advanced
analytics
Advanced
robotics &
cognitive
automation
Biotechnology/
Biomanufacturing
Cybersecurity Energy storage
Interface of things
(AR/VR/Mixed reality,
extended reality,
wearables, gesture
recognition)
Source: Singularity University
10

11. PwC
Exponential technologies
Technology is moving the needle to address the Covid-19 crisis
11
Advanced Analytics3D Printing Drug discovery
This technology is used to bridge
supply chain interruptions and
shortage of equipment (e.g. for
the production of ventilators).
Many drug and therapeutic companies
are using AI in an attempt to rapidly
develop vaccine therapies for COVID-
19. More specifically a lot of these
companies are deploying machine
learning algorithms as a way to identify
relationships across large amounts of
health data, which helps to accelerate
the development of vaccine therapies.
Large pharmaceutical companies
are sharing proprietary compound
libraries and real-time clinical trial
data to speed up the
development of a COVID-19
vaccine.
Source: Isabell Flückiger, The Geneva Association & xprize.org
Diagnostics and monitoring
The fully-open data set and AI
tool, COVID-Net, shows how AI
can be used to detect COVID-19
in a chest X-ray by leveraging
convolutional neural networks
and open data to analyze visual
images.

12. PwC
Industry-specific use-cases indicate how Blockchain solutions help
coping with COVID-19 challenges and beyond
12
Industry-specific Blockchain-based efficiency boosters
Healthcare: Electronic patient medical record between
healthcare stakeholders, incl. potential interfaces with health
authorities
Public Sector: Ecosystem between WHO, national health
agencies and the population to share information / data for
prevention and management of pandemics (e.g. tracking)
Automotive: Smart contracts for the transformation of cars
into “smart assets” that operate within the limits set by its
users
Manufacturing: Ecosystem between all stakeholders of the
supply chain for a quick understanding of disruptions, incl.
detection of affected process steps and suppliers
Aerospace & Defense: Globally accessible platform for
central storage of aircraft part data from all industry players,
thereby increasing efficiency / reducing the burden of paper
Financial Services: Network for trade finance processes,
tracking transportations steps and allowing to conduct trade
finance processes and sharing data via the network
Consumer Goods & Retail: Ecosystem between
manufacturer and blockchain technology provider for
tracking and verification of supply and import of products
Energy: Consolidated data platform on resources to track
supply and demand in real-time, enabling more informed
decision making on resource management / system design

13. PwC
The acceleration of technological progress and uptake
75 years
38 years
13 years
4 years
3.5 years
3 years
2.5 years
50 days
35 days
Reaching
50 Million
Users
It took about 75 years for the
telephone to connect 50
million people. Today a
simple iPhone app like
“Angry Birds” can reach that
milestone in a matter of
days. In the past 10 years the
rate of adoption of new
technologies has accelerated
at a dizzying speed.
The fundamental basis to this popular internet meme is in fact wrong or at least severely flawed, but the general message is true (Dobrauz-
Saldapenna & Derungs in: New Suits. Appetite for Disruption in the Legal World).
13

14. PwC
Big-bang disruption
Catching the wave
Innovators
(2.5%)
Early
Adopters
(13.5%)
Early
Majority
(34%)
Late
Majority
(34%)
Laggards
(16%)
Time
Trial user Vast majority
Source: Harvard Business Review
14

15. Decentralization
3

16. PwC
From pyramids to rockets to platform-based, decentralized ecosystems
Old world Intermediary step (now) New world
Platform
-based
Ecosyst
em 1
Duration
Platform
-based
Ecosyst
em 3
Duration
Platform-
based
Ecosyste
m 5
Duration
Platform-
based
Ecosyste
m
4
Duration
Platform
-based
Ecosyst
em 2
Duration
Pyramid structure
Shareholders/
Partners/
Executives
Senior
staff
Junior
staff
Project
manager
Tech
manager
Cooperations
Outsourcing/
collaboration
partners
Tech
solutions
Paralegals/
Junior staff
Specific Tech
Outsourcing
Outsourcing Automation
Rocket structure
16

17. PwC
As our societies advanced and our economic systems
became more complex, this triggered a shift towards
centralization to facilitate trust and accountability to allow for
transactions and cooperation across ever greater distances.
The industrial revolution and the efficiency quantum leap it
brought about not only accelerated linear economy models,
but also crystallized pyramid structures as dominant
organizational designs.
Exponential Technologies such as blockchain/DLT will
facilitate trust without the need for intermediaries or
central authorities and will provide us with self-sovereign
identities further powering peer-to-peer transaction. This will
allow us to reorganize ourselves as entrepreneurs around
our true individual skills, talents and passions, to unleash
our full creative human potential and collaborate globally via
connected platforms and to form centers of gravity around
meaningful tasks.
17

18. PwC
Move towards Sustainability & Circularity
18
13.
We need to understand nature as the
source of life. We have to restore a
natural balance between needs and
consumption. No more exploitation.
Neither of man, nor land, nor animal. We
need to advocate decommodification -
discover your true needs - and give more
than you take if you can.
We need a shift to circularity to
save our planet and its inhab-
itants
We need to transition towards
decentralization to unlock our
full creative human potential
and allow for a meaningful and
fair life for everyone

19. PwC
New Suits
Appetite for Disruption in
the Legal World
Order here:
www.staempflishop.com/newsuits

20. PwC
www.appetitefordisruption.tv
@APPTT4DSRPTN
brought to you by
Appetite_for_disruption
Appetite For Disruption
We will take you to the edge.
And past it. 20

21. PwC
PricewaterhouseCoopers AG
Birchstrasse 160
8050 Zurich
+41 58 792 14 97
+41 79 894 58 73
guenther.dobrauz@ch.pwc.com
www.pwclegal.ch
www.linkedin.com/in/dobrauz/
@_GDS77_
@gds77
@_gds77_
Appetite For Disruption
Partner & Leader PwC Legal Switzerland
Dr. iur. Guenther Dobrauz-Saldapenna, MBA

22. PwC
Thank you for your attention…
…and now let’s go and do amazing things!
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