In this al about nuclear polfration and deteerence Goverance of paksitan

1. Nuclear Proliferation
Historical Review
Mohammad Irfan Ali
PhD, IR
Roll # 2

26. Only winning move is not to play

27. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan.
• Twenty years ago, the government of Pakistan decided to respond
in kind to India’s nuclear tests in May 1998.
• Pakistan conducted six nuclear explosions to India’s five, after which
Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared, “We have
settled the score.”
• Since then, Pakistan’s strategic deterrent has remained India-
centric.
• Nuclear Deterrence- the military doctrine according to which the
possibility that a country will use the nuclear weapons
it possesses in retaliation will deter an enemy from attacking
• However, the immense ambiguity surrounding Pakistan’s nuclear
weapons program makes it challenging to ascertain the exact force
goals or technological ends.
• The components of credibility and minimalism are subject to
change in response to increasing Indian force capabilities.

28. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan.
• The components of credibility and minimalism are
subject to change in response to increasing Indian
force capabilities.
• For this reason, Pakistani officials have said that
“deterrence requirements remain dynamic” and that a
particular number of nuclear weapons to meet the
requirements “cannot be quantified.”
• In the last two decades, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and
force posture evolved steadfastly from minimum
credible deterrence to credible minimum deterrence in
line with the dictates of full-spectrum deterrence (FSD)

29. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan
• Nuclear Doctrine- A theoretical concept of military strategy that
promotes deterrence by guaranteeing an immediate “Massive
retaliation” to an aggressive attack against the state.
• An Un-Written Doctrine- flexible enough to change according to
situation- Doctrine Means Numbers of weapons + Thresholds
• Two Doctrines- Minimum Credible Deterrence Vs. Full Spectrum
Deterrence capability.
• Minimum Credible Deterrence – (1)To counter the economic
strangulation from North to South- punishment of a group by
cutting off commercial dealings with them.
• (2)In the case to attack on Pakistan’s Urban Heads – Lahore,
Karachi etc,
• (3)In the case of loss of considerable manpower Pakistan as
Pakistan is in 1/3 ratio of disparity in conventional means of war
while comparing with India

30. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan
• India responded with Cold Start Doctrine and Limited War
doctrine.
• In response Pakistan changed its Minimum Credible
Doctrine to Full Spectrum Deterrence capability - it
reserves the option of first-use against a nuclear weapon
state; the development of tactical nuclear weapons was
intended to reaffirm this policy.
• FSD involves deterrence of all forms of aggression through
a combination of conventional and strategic forces.
• This has in turn revamped Pakistan’s conventional
warfighting doctrine, now titled “comprehensive
response.”

31. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan
• How Pakistan’s Nuclear working act..?
• Two Organizations-
• National Command Authority (NCA)- The National
Command Authority is the apex Government-led
command to oversee the employment, policy
formulation, exercises, deployment, research and
development, and operational command and control
of Pakistan's nuclear arsenals
• Strategic Plan Division (SPD) - Strategic Plans Division
Force or is Pakistan's agency responsible for the
protection of its tactical and strategic nuclear weapons
stockpile and the strategic assets.

32. Nuclear Posture’s View of Pakistan
• Caught in a security dilemma Since its
inception – Security issues in Eastern and
Western Borders.
• India’s Smiling Buddah 1974.
• Concept of MAD- Mutually assured
Distruction

33. Do Pakistan have Nuclear Triad
• India achieved the status of Nuclear Triad.
• A nuclear triad is a three-pronged military force
structure that consists of land-launched nuclear
missiles, nuclear-missile-armed submarines, and
strategic aircraft with nuclear bombs and missiles.
• Second Strike Capability.
• Shaheen+ Ghouri – from Surface to surface, but don’t
have intercontinental missile.
• F16+JF17+ Miraj – From air to air but don’t have air to
surface capability
• Pakistan have Sea to Land nuclear missile system+
Submarine ballistic missile

34. International Concerns
• Tactical weapons can be shifted from one place to another
Therefore, terrorists can steal as GHQ has been attacked in
past.
• All states have nuclear weapons to protect themselves but
Pakistan protects its nuclear weapons.
• Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has undermined international
principles regarding nuclear thresholds.
• Nuclear supplier group- based on elite nuclear powers (48
Members)who can sell and purchased nuclear technologies
not nuclear bomb.