Nuclear Doctrines


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My presentation from the 2011's Junge Piraten Security Conference. It covers the historical overview until current time (of 2011) of nuclear doctrines of the world.

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Nuclear Doctrines

  1. 1. Nuclear Doctrines JuPi Security Conference 2011
  2. 2. Some Rights Reserved• Copyright 2011 by Gregory Engels. Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Share Alike 3.0 License
  3. 3. Gregory Engels• Pirate• founding Co-Chairman of Pirate Party International• Geek• Member of the City Council of Offenbach (Germany)
  4. 4. Nuclear Club
  5. 5. Glossary• First Strike• Second Strike• Nuclear Triad• NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty)• IBM (Intercontinental ballistic missile)• Mt (Million ton of TNT equivalent 4.184 PJ)
  6. 6. USA Nuclear Strategies
  7. 7. Forward Strategy• Nato Document 14/1 • Tactical nuclear air strikes • combined with conventional counterstrike • would have radiated most of Germany east of the Rhine
  8. 8. recoilless rifle “Davy Crockett” on a tripod for firing theM388 atomic round
  9. 9. Massive Retalitation• Nato Document 14/2• nuclear counter of conventional strike• Single Integrated Operation Plan SIOP-62 • 3423 single targets in 1960
  10. 10. Flexible Response• NATO Document 143/3• Triade-Strategy combines conventional, nuclear tactical and nuclear strategical forces• 1980‘s SIOP-5D Plan had 40000 possible targets
  11. 11. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)• Overkill-Capacity• Nash Equilibrium• “Whoever fires first, die second”• since 1961 - it is questionable, if it still persists
  12. 12. Countervailing Strategy• Presidential Directive 59• First kill political leaders, then bomb military targets• Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI aka Star Wars) 1983
  13. 13. Global Strike• Contingency Plan 8022 (CONPLAN 8022)• since 2002• Use of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads• Development of new “virtual” weapons• Space and Cyberspace forces
  14. 14. Prompt Global Strike• Since 2006• the ability to deliver a precision conventional weapon strike anywhere in the world within one hour
  15. 15. Russia Nuclear Strategies
  16. 16. Early Strategies• under Khrushchev (1955) development of strategy to “raze to the ground” the countries that are aggressive towards USSR
  17. 17. Brezhnev• since 1965 a “double strategy” • the nuclear war is not to be lead, unless imposed by the NATO or USA • If the nuclear war is necessary, it must be fought, even with a first strike, if the situation requires it
  18. 18. “Dead Hand”• 1974 Directive № 695-227 Система «Периметр»• “Doomsday-Device” to ensure a decentralized counterstrike even in the case of failing communication
  19. 19. “Perimeter” Command Rocket 15А11
  20. 20. Current Doctrine• Since 2001• Nuclear First Strike as a counterstrike to weapons of mass destruction or to conventional warfare in the case of a threat to the existence of the Russian State
  21. 21. No First Use Policy• No First Use: • No “No First Use” • India • USA • China (*) • Russia • North Korea • UK • UdSSR • Pakistan• (*) China would strike first • Israel against USA in case USA would enter the Taiwan conflict • France
  22. 22. Pakistan• First Strike towards India also in the case of conventional warfare• No Nuclear Triad• First tests 1998, estimated 300 nukes• tactical weapons up to 2500 km (4000 km are in development)• Not a member of Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
  23. 23. India• Also not a member of Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons• No First Use Policy, deterrence only• First test 1974 (Smiling Buddha) - a “peaceful nuclear explosion”• in the process of building nuclear triad• 70 - 100 nukes (100% growth since 2005)
  24. 24. North Korea• first test 2006• estimated 6-8 warheads maximum 4000 km range (BM25 Musudan)• according to Korean mass-media, North Korea have the nukes only for deterrence
  25. 25. Israel• Not an official member of the nuclear club• first test unknown, possible 1974 in a joint effort with South Africa• allegedly 75-400 warheads in stock with maximum range of 10000 km with 1t load (Jericho III)
  26. 26. China• full nuclear triad• first test 1964, last test 1996• current stockpile ~400 warheads with maximum range of 12.000 to 15.000 km• "China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear- weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances."
  27. 27. United Kingdom• First test 1952, last test 1991• current stockpile 225 warheads. Maximum range 13.000 km• special relationship between UK and US
  28. 28. France• First test 1960, last test 1995• current stockpile estimated at 300 warheads, maximum range c.a. 10000 km• 2006 Chirac noted that France would be willing to use nuclear weapons against a state attacking France by terrorist means
  29. 29. Russia• First test 1949, last test 1990 (715 total)• current stockpile 12000 warheads, up to 11000 km range, up to 50Mt
  30. 30. USA• first test 1945, last test 1992 (1054 total)• current stockpile 5133 warheads, maximum range 13000 km
  31. 31. ContactGregory.Engels [௹] piratenpartei-hessen.defollow me on Twitter: