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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index gained around 71 points (0.73%) to close at 9,698.36.
The index breached its resistances of 9,669.06 and the 55-day
moving average (currently at 9,695.04) in a single swoop on the back
of increased volumes. We believe the current higher push has
enough steam to test and surpass the 9,700.0 mark, targeting
9,750.0. Moreover, the RSI has rejected the midline and is moving
upward. However, a dip below 9,695.04 may result in consolidation.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
BRES cleared its resistances of the 21-day moving average (currently
at QR25.03) and QR25.20 after developing a hammer pattern on
Tuesday, thus indicating the likely end of the downtrend. Moreover,
the stock developed a bullish Marubozu Candle pattern, which usually
suggests that the stock may move higher from the current level,
targeting the 55-day moving average. Any move above this level may
test QR26.10. Moreover, both indicators look strong.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QERI Index respected the support of the 21-day moving average
(currently at 2,755.03) and moved higher around 0.88% after
witnessing marginal losses for two consecutive days. The index
surpassed the resistances of the descending trend line and 2,760.96,
which had restricted its bullish move in the past. With both momentum
indicators pointing upward, it seems that the index may clear the
resistance of 2,782.80, and advance further toward the 2,800 level.
Doha Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back
DHBK respected the support of QR53.60 yesterday after it penetrated
this level on Tuesday and is now advancing toward the QR54.50
level. The volumes have also increased on this price advance,
indicating renewed buying interest. The breakout above QR54.50
would offer an upside target of QR55.10. The RSI is holding strong in
the bullish territory, while the MACD is about to cross the signal line
into the positive territory, thus supporting our bullish stance.
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Bounce Back
MARK breached both the 21-day (currently at QR28.98) and 55-day
moving averages (currently at QR28.90) yesterday. The stock also
moved higher above the congestion zone and developed a bullish
Marubozu Candle pattern indicating a likely advance toward the
QR29.40 level. However, a dip below the 21-day moving average on
a closing basis may indicate a false breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI is
moving up in a bullish manner, thus indicating strength in the stock.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back
GISS opened gap-down and surged around 3.72% to breach the
resistance of QR52.90 yesterday. The recent price action and rising
volumes indicate that the GISS will continue to push the price higher
and may retest QR53.70, which if surpassed, may tag a new all-time
high. Moreover, the RSI is moving up and has enough room before
getting overbought, while the MACD is widening away from the signal
line in a bullish manner, thus indicating a higher move.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,698.36 UP UP 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,780.83 UP DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 29.05 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.90 UP DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 54.30 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.70 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 56.40 FLAT UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 60.00 FLAT FLAT 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.65 FLAT DOWN 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 51.40 UP UP 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 133.70 UP FLAT 129.90 128.50 134.50 136.00
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 152.30 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 158.40 UP FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 53.00 UP UP 30.50 29.50 54.00 55.90
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 29.30 DOWN FLAT 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 25.35 UP FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.94 DOWN FLAT 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.90 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.05 UP FLAT 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.33 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 80.90 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50