The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index, key Qatari stocks, and indices to identify short-term trading opportunities. It finds the QE Index is neutral in the short-term as it trades near support levels. Nakilat is predicted to pull back further as it broke below supports. The Al Rayan Islamic Index is also neutral as it reclaimed its 55-day moving average. QIBK is expected to pull back after breaking below its 21-day moving average, while GISS may continue its uptrend after reaching a new high.
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index fell by around 16 points (-0.15%) for the second
consecutive day yesterday to close at 9,716.43. However, the index is
trading close to its immediate supports of the 55-day moving average
(currently at 9,711.38) and the ascending trendline. The index needs
to hold these levels on a closing basis in order to proceed ahead
toward 9,800.0. If the index dips below these levels on a closing
basis, it may prompt it to test the 9,670.0 level.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Pull Back
QGTS opened gap-down and dipped below its supports of the 21-day
moving average (currently at QR19.44) and QR19.34 in a single
swoop. Volumes were also large on the breakdown, which is a
negative sign. With both RSI and MACD lines pointing lower, it
appears that the stock may drift lower and test its immediate support
of the 55-day moving average (currently at QR19.15). Any sustained
selling pressure below this level may pull the stock to test QR18.98.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index respected the support of the descending trendline
and moved higher by 0.21%. The index managed to reclaim the 55-
day moving average (currently at 2,799.08), thus keeping its upmove
intact. However traders are advised to wait and watch if there is any
further follow-through to yesterday’s gains. If the index manages to
hold the 55-day moving average on a closing basis, it may open a
possibility to test 2,815.0, any failure may drag it to test 2,782.0.
Al Meera Consumer Good Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
MERS developed a bullish engulfing pattern yesterday, suggesting
that the stock may move higher from the current level. However, the
significant resistance area is at QR137.0, which needs to be
surpassed to spark additional buying interest. Moreover, the RSI is
moving higher, while the MACD is drifting away from the signal line in
a bullish manner, thus reinforcing our bullish outlook. However, if the
stock dips below QR135.50, it may have bearish implications.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back
QIBK penetrated below the 21-day moving average (currently at
QR68.31) yesterday. The stock has been stuck below the 55-day
moving average (currently at QR68.94) over the past few weeks,
which has restricted its bullish move. Moreover, QIBK developed a
bearish engulfing candle pattern indicating a likely correction from the
current level, targeting the QR67.80 level. However, if the stock
manages to reclaim the QR68.31 level, it may halt its downmove.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back
GISS cleared the ascending trendline resistance and tagged another
new all-time high, surpassing its previous best of QR54.40. Moreover,
the bullish momentum indicators are signaling the continuation of the
near-term uptrend. We believe based on the current higher push,
GISS is poised to tag new highs. Hence, it looks like the preferred
near-term direction for GISS is toward the upside. However, a decline
below the ascending trendline at QR54.50 may halt its bullish trend.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,716.43 UP UP 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,799.43 UP DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.00 DOWN UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.90 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.10 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 68.30 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 56.40 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 60.50 UP FLAT 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.45 FLAT DOWN 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 51.10 UP UP 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)* 136.00 UP UP 129.90 128.50 138.50 140.15
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 151.40 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 159.50 UP DOWN 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 54.90 UP UP 30.50 29.50 56.25 58.15
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 29.90 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 26.30 UP UP 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.10 UP FLAT 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.50 DOWN UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.03 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 19.30 DOWN FLAT 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 81.30 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50