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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index ended yesterday’s session on a bearish note and
declined around 15 points (-0.15%) to close at 9,743.68. The index
momentarily managed to move above the immediate resistance near
9,767.0 in early trade, but did not cling on to it and slipped below
9,750.0. The index is currently wedged between a range of 9,770.0 at
the upper end and 9,700.0 at the lower end, either of which levels
should be breached for a better clarity ahead.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
UDCD found support near the QR21.80 level, which is also in
proximity to the 21-day moving average and rebounded as buyers
stepped in, pulling prices near its open. We believe the stock may
advance from the current level and test the 55-day moving average
(currently at QR22.17). Moreover, both the momentum indicators are
stalling from the declining mode, indicating the possibility of a higher
move. However, a dip below QR21.80 may indicate weakness.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index slipped marginally by around 2 points (-0.04%) to
end yesterday’s volatile session at 2,803.58. The index seems to be
in consolidating mode and is moving along the 55-day moving
average (currently at 2,797.72) over the past few days. The index
needs to penetrate above the congestion zone of 2,815.0, in order to
spark additional buying interest, until then it may continue to
consolidate. Conversely, a close below 2,797.72 may be bearish.
Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QIIK opened gap-down but later managed to move higher at its
previous day’s close. We believe if the stock can manage to hold on
to its 21-day moving average (currently at QR56.44) on a closing
basis, it may test and surpass the immediate resistance of QR56.70,
targeting the QR57.0 level. However, a dip below the 21-day moving
average may pull the stock to test the QR56.0 level. Meanwhile, the
RSI and MACD lines are stalling from the declining mode.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back
QIBK dipped below the key long-term support of QR67.80 on the
back of large volumes yesterday. The stock has been
underperforming since encountering stiff resistance near the 55-day
moving average and penetrated below the 21-day moving average on
Tuesday. Moreover, QIBK developed a bearish Marubozu Candle
pattern indicating a further downside toward QR67.30. With both the
RSI and MACD lines pointer lower, QIBK seems to be heading lower.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pull Back
GISS tagged a new all-time high of QR58.50, but reversed and failed
to keep the momentum going. This action reveals that the stock is in
need of some rest, as buyers backed away from higher prices. We
believe the stock may correct from the current level and may move
toward the ascending trendline before the next upmove. Moreover,
the RSI is in the overbought zone, indicating that there may be
exhaustion on the part of buyers.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,743.68 UP UP 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,803.58 UP UP 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.05 DOWN FLAT 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.00 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.40 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 67.70 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 56.60 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 60.50 UP UP 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.60 UP FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 51.30 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 136.00 UP UP 129.90 128.50 138.50 140.15
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 152.00 UP DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 158.20 UP DOWN 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 56.80 UP UP 30.50 29.50 58.50 60.15
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 30.45 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 26.20 UP UP 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.93 UP DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.00 DOWN DOWN 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.03 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.22 DOWN UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 82.00 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50