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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend
The QE Index continued its strong rally for the fourth straight session
and gained around 28 points (0.22%). The index rebounded from its
day’s low of 12,489.60 as buyers stepped in and quickly offset the
weakness to close at 12,578.58. We believe if the index can stay
above its support near 12,514.0, a continued rise and a possibility of
a further rally above 12,600.0 seems possible. However, any retreat
below 12,514.0 may pull the index to test the 12,465.0 level.
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Uptrend
MARK continued its uptrend tagging another new all-time high
yesterday. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle
pattern indicating strength in this upmove and may extend this rally
further. Moreover, with the RSI moving strongly in the overbought
territory, and the MACD diverging away from the signal line in a
bullish manner, it seems MARK’s preferred direction is on the upside,
thus reinforcing our bullish outlook for the stock.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend
The QERI Index extended its bullish rally and moved higher around
0.51% to close at its day’s high of 4,131.50. The index has been
showing no immediate trend reversal signs and may continue its
strong momentum. Moreover, the RSI is moving strongly in the
overbought territory, while the MACD is growing more bullish
indicating that the index has enough steam to advance further.
However, 4,100.0 should be closely watched for any reversal signs.
Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Upmove
KCBK breached the resistance of the ascending triangle at QR23.23
after consolidating below it over the past few days, tagging a 52-week
high. The stock has been in upmove mode since moving above both
the moving averages. Moreover with volumes also picking up it
seems the stock may continue its rally further and test QR24.0.
However, a dip below QR23.23 may pull the stock back into the
congestion zone. Meanwhile, both indicators look strong.
Medicare Group: Short-Term – Downmove
MCGS continued to drift lower yesterday after witnessing a reversal
on Thursday, thus confirming the downmove. Notably, volumes were
also large on the decline which is a negative sign. We believe
although the stock is trading close to its immediate support of
QR79.0, it seems unlikely that MCGS may cling onto it and move
down further to test QR77.40. The RSI has shown a bearish
divergence suggesting the stock may correct from the current level.
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Uptrend
MERS finally breached its important resistance of QR185.0 after
consolidating below it over the past few days on the back of large
volumes, tagging new all-time highs. Moreover, the stock developed a
bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this
upmove. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on
QR185.0 for any reversal signs. Meanwhile, both indicators are
providing bullish signals indicating the possibility of a further rally.
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,578.58 UP UP 12,513.65 12,465.45 12,636.00 12,678.84
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,131.50 UP UP 4,100.00 4,075.22 4,148.08 4,170.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 48.50 UP UP 46.00 44.15 50.00 52.40
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.50 UP UP 68.40 65.75 70.00 71.50
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.00 UP UP 61.50 60.00 63.30 64.50
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 83.90 UP UP 82.40 80.20 84.50 86.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.70 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 74.50 UP UP 73.30 72.40 76.00 77.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 23.30 UP UP 22.90 21.49 23.50 24.40
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 79.50 UP UP 79.00 77.30 81.70 83.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 186.00 UP UP 185.00 183.00 190.00 195.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 180.00 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.30 181.40 183.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 181.90 UP UP 180.00 178.20 184.00 188.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 92.20 UP UP 90.00 86.60 93.00 94.50
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 62.20 UP UP 61.30 59.70 64.70 66.30
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.00 FLAT UP 36.80 35.80 37.40 38.40
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 23.05 UP UP 22.66 22.38 23.33 23.50
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 148.50 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 16.36 UP UP 16.00 15.41 16.90 17.30
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.00 UP UP 21.83 21.58 22.19 22.50
Milaha (QNNS QD) 97.00 UP UP 96.50 95.10 98.30 100.10