16 April Daily technical trader


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16 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index rebounded and gained around 178 points (1.46%) to close at 12,321.89. The index breached the 12,200.0 as well as the 12,300.0 psychological levels in a single swoop and witnessed a stunning rally as the bulls were back in action. We believe this strong advance has bullish implications and the index may extend this rally toward 12,375.03. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on 12,300.0 as any retreat below this level may result in a pullback. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back KCBK rebounded and breached its important resistances of QR22.49 and QR22.90 in a single swoop, tagging a 52-week high after consolidating below it over the past few days. The recent price action and spike in volumes indicate that the stock may continue to advance further and test QR23.50, followed by QR24.40. However, a dip below QR22.90 may pull the stock back into the congestion zone. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are providing bullish signals. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QERI Index rebounded and moved higher gaining around 1.50% to close the session at 3,965.16. The index reclaimed the 3,952.75 level after witnessing sustained selling over the past two days as the bulls dominated the bears. We believe if the index stays above the 3,952.75 level on a closing basis, it may proceed toward 4,000.0. On the other side, if the index penetrates below the 3,952.75 level it may drift lower and test the 3,900.0 level. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Rebound QIGD witnessed a gap-up opening and rebounded surpassing its resistances of QR58.0 and QR61.30 in a single trading session. Notably, volumes were also large on the breakout which is a positive signal. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to accelerate further and test QR64.70 as it has little resistance until then. However, a retreat below QR61.30 may pull the stock down. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Upmove MCGS cleared the resistance of QR79.0 on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock developed a hammer candle pattern on Monday and continued its upmove yesterday, confirming strength in the stock. We believe the stock may continue to march toward QR79.90. If the stock closes above this level another higher wave is likely with an initial target of QR81.70. However, a dip below QR79.0 may result in a false breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up. Milaha: Short-Term – Breakout QNNS gained around 3.70% and cleared the resistances of QR95.10 and QR96.50 in a single swoop. Moreover, the stock developed a long bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. The stock faces its immediate resistance at QR98.30. Any move above this level may spark additional buying interest, which may push the stock further higher to test QR100.10. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, while the MACD is moving up.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,321.89 UP UP 12,300.00 12,216.75 12,375.03 12,450.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,965.16 UP UP 3,952.75 3,900.00 4,000.00 4,030.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 43.25 UP UP 42.45 42.00 43.50 45.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.30 UP UP 65.75 63.75 68.40 70.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.90 UP DOWN 59.23 58.20 63.30 64.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 78.00 UP UP 77.00 76.00 80.20 81.70 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 79.00 UP UP 79.72 77.30 81.50 83.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 74.00 UP UP 72.40 71.00 74.80 76.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 23.00 UP UP 22.90 21.49 23.50 24.40 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 79.30 UP UP 79.00 76.40 79.90 81.70 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 181.30 UP UP 175.00 164.00 182.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 183.00 UP DOWN 181.40 178.30 184.50 187.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.00 UP UP 180.00 178.20 185.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 91.50 UP UP 90.00 86.60 93.00 94.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 62.00 UP UP 61.30 58.00 64.70 66.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 36.75 UP UP 35.80 35.00 36.80 37.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.52 UP UP 22.00 21.69 22.66 23.00 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.00 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 14.01 UP UP 13.72 12.99 14.23 14.50 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.80 UP UP 21.15 20.90 21.83 22.19 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 98.00 UP UP 96.50 95.10 98.30 100.10