2 April Daily technical trader


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2 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index continued its strong rally for the sixth successive session and jumped around 266 points (2.29%) on the back of large volumes, registering one of its highest single day gains. The index witnessed a gap-up opening and surpassed the 11,700.0, 11,800.0 and 11,900.0 psychological levels in a single swoop as the bulls were dominant. Moreover, with both the momentum indicators pointing higher, the index will continue to scale higher. Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIIK surpassed the resistances of the descending triangle at QR72.80 and QR74.40 along with the 21-day moving average in a single trading session, which is a positive sign. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto QR74.40 on a closing basis, it may set the stage to advance further and test QR75.80 followed by QR77.30. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, while the MACD is closing the signal line from below indicating a further advance. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index extended its gains and rallied aggressively tagging another new all-time high. The index has been relentlessly tagging new highs over the past few days and also has strong momentum going in. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are in uptrend mode and showing no immediate trend reversal signs, indicating that this rally may not fizzle out soon. Thus, the prognosis of this time indicates that the index is poised to tag new highs. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Breakout GISS witnessed a gap-up opening and surged 9.94% clearing its resistances of QR78.80 and QR80.90 in a single trading session. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating the possibility of a further advance. With volumes picking up, the stock may be ready for a move above QR86.60 and tag new highs. Meanwhile, the stock has support for a further upmove from both the momentum indicators which are moving up. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upmove MARK breached the important resistance of QR40.0 and gained 3.40%, tagging a new all-time high. Moreover, the stock has been gaining strength since moving above the 21-day moving average and is in upmove mode. We believe the stock may continue its advance and tag new highs. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving strongly in the overbought territory, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner indicating strength in the upmove. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove BRES penetrated above its resistances of QR36.80 & QR37.40 and tagged a new 52-week high yesterday. Notably, volumes were also large on the advance indicating that potential buyers are stepping in. Meanwhile, with both the momentum indicators providing bullish signals BRES’ preferred direction seems to be on the upside. We believe the stock may continue to move higher and test QR38.40. However, a dip below the QR37.40 level may halt its upmove.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,905.94 UP UP 11,850.00 11,800.00 11,916.92 12,000.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,662.91 UP UP 3,590.13 3,560.04 3,700.00 3,730.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 41.05 UP UP 40.60 40.00 42.00 43.50 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 64.60 UP UP 63.67 61.67 65.60 66.10 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.80 UP DOWN 60.00 58.50 63.30 64.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 74.90 DOWN DOWN 72.80 71.50 75.00 76.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 75.00 UP UP 74.40 72.80 75.80 77.30 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 65.40 UP UP 64.00 62.64 65.68 66.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 21.90 UP UP 21.29 21.00 22.00 22.30 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 73.10 UP UP 71.40 69.00 74.00 74.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 155.00 DOWN UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 188.50 UP UP 187.50 184.50 190.00 194.60 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 175.50 UP UP 174.36 170.91 176.64 178.18 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 86.30 UP UP 84.80 80.90 86.60 90.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.70 UP DOWN 56.20 54.00 57.70 59.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 37.50 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 20.75 FLAT DOWN 20.00 19.75 21.00 21.30 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 140.70 UP DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.38 UP UP 12.25 12.09 12.66 13.00 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.28 DOWN DOWN 20.00 19.80 20.44 20.66 Milaha (QNNS QD) 91.20 DOWN DOWN 89.40 88.60 91.30 93.00