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1 May Daily technical trader


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1 May Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index halted its four-day fall and gained around 51 points (0.40%) to close a volatile day at 12,677.59. The index made a gap- down opening, but witnessed a smart recovery from its day’s low of 12,515.43 for the second consecutive day as buyers stepped in and quickly offset the weakness. We believe if the index can manage to put its head above 12,650.0, it may rally further toward 12,768.0 or else it may retreat to test the 12,600.0 level. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove GISS has been on a consolidation mode over the past few days and advanced yesterday. Further, the stock developed a bullish engulfing candle pattern, which usually results in a higher move. We believe the recent price action and a spike in volumes indicate that the stock may surpass the ascending triangle resistance of QR90.0, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average to reach QR93.0. Any failure to move above QR90.0 may result in further consolidation. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QERI Index snapped its fifth consecutive day of losing streak and rebounded to close at 4,192.71 up by 0.52%. The index momentarily dipped below its support of 4,148.08, but recovered quickly as buying interest pushed it closer to the 4,200.0 level. However, the index needs to move above 4,200.0 in order to gain further momentum. Conversely, failure to move above this level could result in consolidation, forcing the index to retest the 4,150.0 level. Nakilat: Short-Term – Upmove QGTS cleared its interim resistance of QR23.90 after a sideways movement since the past two days. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, indicating buyers are stepping in. The stock faces an immediate resistance at QR24.20. Any move above this level may spark more buying interest, which may push the stock further to test QR24.61. However, a dip below QR23.90 may halt its upmove. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving strongly into the overbought territory. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Rebound MARK finally ended its correction yesterday and gained 1.90% to rebound on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish engulfing candle pattern that usually indicates a bullish move. The stock is on the threshold of its immediate resistance of QR48.50. Any move above this level may push the stock further to test QR49.75. However, any failure to move above QR48.50 may result in sideways movement. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Uptrend MCGS gained 2.33% and moved above the QR86.0 level, recording a new all-time high on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been in an uptrend mode and is moving along the channel line. Meanwhile, with both the RSI and the MACD pointing higher, MCGS’ preferred direction seems to be on the upside. However, the stock is sitting right at its resistance of QR87.80, which needs to be cleared for it to tag new highs or else it may result in consolidation.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,677.59 UP UP 12,600.00 12,513.75 12,678.84 12,768.17 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,192.71 UP UP 4,148.08 4,100.00 4,200.00 4,247.34 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 48.30 UP UP 47.00 45.90 48.50 49.75 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.30 UP UP 67.30 66.50 69.80 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 64.90 UP UP 63.90 62.00 65.70 66.40 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 86.10 UP UP 84.70 81.70 87.30 88.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.00 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 98.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.80 UP UP 77.00 76.00 79.00 80.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.30 DOWN UP 21.80 21.29 22.49 22.90 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 87.80 UP UP 85.00 83.40 87.80 90.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.70 UP UP 181.40 178.50 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 178.00 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 178.30 180.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.30 DOWN UP 180.00 178.18 184.00 186.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 90.00 DOWN UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 66.40 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.50 DOWN UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.55 UP UP 25.29 24.70 26.00 26.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.00 UP UP 145.00 143.00 148.00 149.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 16.92 UP UP 16.89 16.00 17.15 17.99 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 24.00 UP UP 23.90 23.40 24.20 24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD) 98.00 UP UP 95.10 93.00 98.30 100.10