26 March Daily technical trader

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26 March Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index snapped its four-day losing streak and gained around 51 points (0.45%). The index after witnessing sustained selling pressure over the past few days displayed some strength and managed to close above the 11,300.0 level. However, the index needs to cling onto 11,300.0 in order to advance further toward the 11,338.41 level, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average. Any dip below 11,300.0 may result in bearish implications. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove BRES after correcting over the past few trading sessions witnessed a price rebound yesterday. The stock surged 4.53% and surpassed the resistances of the descending triangle and QR34.80 in a single swoop. The recent price action and spike in volumes are revealing the underlying strength supporting this upmove. We believe the stock is poised to move above its immediate resistance of QR35.80, targeting QR36.30. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index rebounded and cleared the resistance of 3,458.51 level to close the session at 3,473.50. However, accumulation is not recommended until a further bullish confirmation occurs. The index faces its immediate resistance at 3,481.42. A move above this level may confirm the bullish move and the index may continue to advance further. Conversely, if the index fails to move above 3,481.42 on a closing basis, it may result in a pullback toward the 3,458.51 level. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Downmove GISS continued to witness selling pressure and declined further yesterday on the back of large volumes. The stock has been progressively setting lower lows and lower highs since witnessing a price decline at QR86.60. We believe the stock is underperforming and may continue to drift lower to test QR75.20. Any sustained weakness below this level may drag the stock to test the 21-day moving average. Meanwhile, both the indicators are looking weak. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove CBQK cleared the descending triangle resistance of QR60.92 and moved higher yesterday. We believe if CBQK can hold onto the QR60.92 level it may advance toward the QR61.67 level, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average. However, a dip below QR60.92 may result in a false breakout. The RSI is moving up toward the mid-line indicating that the stock may continue to move higher, thus supporting our positive technical outlook for the stock. Nakilat: Short-Term – Breakout QGTS breached the resistances of QR19.28, QR19.50 and QR19.80 and erased majority of its losses it suffered over the past few trading sessions in a single trading session. Moreover, the stock developed a hammer candle pattern on Monday and rebounded yesterday, thus confirming this trend reversal pattern, which was bearish until now. The next upside targets for the stock are QR20.0 followed by QR20.44. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,309.53 DOWN DOWN 11,300.00 11,250.00 11,338.41 11,400.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,473.50 UP UP 3,458.51 3,432.26 3,481.42 3,490.49 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.50 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 61.00 DOWN DOWN 60.92 59.33 61.67 62.75 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 58.50 DOWN DOWN 57.40 56.20 60.00 62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 72.40 DOWN DOWN 71.80 70.50 74.10 75.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 70.80 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 72.80 74.40 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 63.20 DOWN UP 62.64 60.96 65.68 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.15 DOWN DOWN 28.00 27.52 29.15 29.95 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 45.00 DOWN UP 44.50 43.20 47.80 48.75 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 158.00 FLAT UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 177.40 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 169.40 DOWN UP 168.00 165.36 170.91 174.36 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 75.60 UP UP 75.20 73.20 78.80 80.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 54.50 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 35.75 UP UP 34.80 34.20 35.80 36.30 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.40 DOWN DOWN 21.00 20.50 21.70 22.00 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 138.90 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 11.95 DOWN UP 11.74 11.44 12.09 12.25 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 19.96 DOWN DOWN 19.80 19.50 20.00 20.44 Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.80 DOWN UP 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50

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