1 April Daily technical trader


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1 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index continued its upmove for the fifth successive session and gained around 77 points (0.67%) to close above the 11,600.0 psychological level, which is a positive development. The index is rapidly approaching toward its immediate resistance of 11,660.45. Traders should keep a close watch on this level as a move above this level may trigger additional buying interest, which may push the index further higher to test the 11,700.0-11,730.0 levels. Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Upmove QATI cleared the resistance of the 21-day moving average on Sunday and continued to move higher yesterday on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up in a bullish manner, while the MACD is about to cross the signal line into the positive territory. We believe the stock may march toward its next important resistance of QR65.68. A retreat below the 21-day moving average may be a bearish sign. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index continued its bullish run and tagged another new all- time high to close at 3,578.42. The index has been consistently tagging new highs over the past few days and is showing no immediate trend reversal signs. We believe the index is in strong uptrend mode and may continue to move higher tagging new highs. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators suggest that the index has enough steam to accelerate further. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove IQCD breached its resistance of the 21-day moving average and made further headway yesterday. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a continuation of this upmove. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to test its interim resistance of QR187.50. A move above this level may result in a further advance and the stock may test QR190.0. Both the indicators are providing bullish signals signifying strength. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove CBQK continued its upmove and cleared the resistance of QR63.67 level. Moreover, the stock has been gaining strength and is in upmove mode since clearing both its moving averages. There are additional resistances at QR64.58 and QR65.60 and the former could be tough to get through. The RSI is supporting this bullish sentiment by moving up, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the positive territory. A dip below QR63.67 may result in a pullback. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Downmove QIBK reversed after testing the 21-day moving average and declined below the support of the descending triangle at QR74.10 on Sunday. Further, the stock dipped below the 21-day moving average yesterday on the back of large volumes, thus providing a confirmation of this reversal. Moreover, with the RSI rejecting the mid-line and heading lower, we believe the stock may drift down to test QR72.80. A move above its 21-day moving average may provide some relief.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,639.79 UP UP 11,600.00 11,520.55 11,660.45 11,733.50 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,578.42 UP UP 3,560.04 3,533.01 3,590.13 3,630.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 39.70 UP UP 39.10 38.00 40.00 40.60 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 64.00 UP UP 63.67 61.67 64.58 65.60 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.80 UP DOWN 60.00 58.50 63.30 64.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 73.50 DOWN DOWN 72.80 71.50 75.00 76.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 72.00 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 72.80 74.40 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 64.90 UP UP 64.00 62.64 65.68 66.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 21.90 UP UP 21.29 21.00 22.00 22.30 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 71.50 UP UP 71.40 69.00 72.90 74.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 151.50 DOWN DOWN 150.00 148.90 154.90 159.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 186.40 UP UP 184.50 181.40 187.50 190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 172.00 UP UP 170.91 168.00 174.36 176.64 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 78.50 UP UP 75.20 73.20 78.80 80.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 54.50 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 36.45 UP UP 35.80 34.80 36.80 37.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 20.79 UP DOWN 20.00 19.75 21.00 21.30 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 137.70 DOWN DOWN 136.00 133.90 138.50 139.90 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.21 UP UP 12.09 11.90 12.25 12.40 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.15 DOWN DOWN 19.80 19.50 20.26 20.44 Milaha (QNNS QD) 90.20 DOWN UP 89.40 88.60 91.30 93.00